going beyond cpm j. chris white viasim solutions rockwall, tx 972-722-9255...
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Going Beyond CPMGoing Beyond CPM
J. Chris WhiteViaSim Solutions
Rockwall, TX972-722-9255
jcwhite@viasimsolutions.com
The Problem
Even with great effort and the best Even with great effort and the best intentions . . .intentions . . .
Some projects are still late andSome projects are still late andover-budget.over-budget.
But It’s Not Our Fault
Litigation
Just the Tip of the Iceberg…
Unexpectedmaterial delays
Unrealisticstarting point
Unexpectedlabor losses
Etc.
Need a tool that . . .
And providesguidance on howto recover fromthe unexpected.
Provides a much betterstarting point
The PlanIn the beginning was the plan.And the plan came with assumptions.And the assumptions were without form.And the plan was completely without substance.And the darkness was upon the faces of the WorkersAnd they spoke unto their Group Heads, saying:“It is a crock of &*%# and it stinketh.”And the Group Heads went unto their Section Heads and sayeth:“It is a pail of dung, and none may abide the odor thereof.”And the Section Heads went unto their Managers and sayeth to them:“It is a container of excrement and it is very strong, such that none may abide by it.”And the Managers went unto their Director and sayeth unto him:“It contains that which aids plant growth and it is very strong.”And the Director went unto the Vice President and sayeth unto him:“It promoteth growth and it is very powerful.”And the Vice President went unto the General Manager and sayeth unto him:“This powerful new plan will actively promote the growth and efficiency of the Department.”And the General Manager looked upon the plan and saw that is was good.And the plan became policy.
The Biggest RISK Is anUNREALISTIC Baseline
Crea
te a
real
istic p
lan
that
exp
oses
issu
es
upfro
nt, b
ut lo
oks “
bad”
Keep a plan that looks
“good” but is known to
be wrong
The Real World
• Construction projects are very complex.• Labor productivity issues are a reality.• There are always unexpected delays and
disruptions that management reacts to.• Management corrective actions constantly
change the course of the project.• Estimates are often “padded” to cover risks.• We are dependent on project planning tools.
ElementsElementsFewFew ManyMany
Inte
rrel
ation
sIn
terr
elati
ons
Few
Few
Man
yM
any
LowLow
HighHighMedMed
MedMed
Business System/Project Complexity
• Lots of trades• Lots of activities• Long duration
PartsPartsFewFew ManyMany
Rela
tions
Rela
tions
Few
Few
Man
yM
any
Picking the Right Tool for the Job
SpreadsheetSpreadsheet
See 4-part video series on www.viasimsolutions.com for full description
Network ModelsNetwork Models
SystemSystemDynamicsDynamics
CPM-Based Tools Are Misleading• Double resources to cut duration in half.• Double people’s hours to cut duration in half.• If resource is not available for the requested
time, resource sits idle.• Durations (and, hence, full project plans) can
be input with no verification of assumptions.
We conduct We conduct complexcomplex analyses analyses with variables that are with variables that are suspicioussuspicious to begin with. to begin with.
Overview of Critical Path Method
Major Flaws with CPM
• Task duration is an input.• Productivity impacts are not considered.• Management corrective actions are not
included.
Resulting Problems
• Assumptions are not challenged.• All resources are considered equal.• Resource leveling is often inconsistent.• Project plan is static.• Project plan is often difficult to defend.• Cost and schedule risks increase.• Lower probability of success.
Real World Example:Aircraft Sensor Development for
Defense Contractor
39 mo, $13.1M
77 mo, $13.1M
MS Project:Unleveled
MS Project:Leveled (Weekly)
MS Project:Leveled (Monthly)
599 mo, $13.1M
Too optimistic.
Too unpredictable.
Too pessimistic.
Dynamic Progress Method
• Addresses major flaws of CPM.– Duration is an output.– Productivity is accounted for.– Management corrective actions are incorporated.
• Uses the power found in today’s PC’s to create operational simulations of projects.
• Incorporates additional knowledge about project management.
WorkTo Do
CompletedWork
Completion Rate
ResourceProductivity
“Effective”Labor Hours
ActualLabor Hours
Numberof Resources
Completed
Work
Task 1
Completed
Work
Task N
TaskDependencies
FS, SS etc.
Earned ValueCalculations
Corrective Actions
Project Manager Assumptions:
10 5
PERT/CPM use this input:
WorkTo Do
Completed
Work
ResourceProductivity Actual
Labor HoursNumber
of Resources
DPM uses these inputs:
+Assumed
ProductivityLevel
(100%)
+Assumed
Availability(Days, Hrs/Day)
(8 hrs/day)
= ExpectedDuration
(10 days)(80 hours)
ExpectedAmount of
WorkJoe(1)
+
Example Continued…
39 mo, $13.1M
599 mo, $13.1M
77 mo, $13.1M
71 mo, $13.9M
84 mo, $15.4M
MS Project:Unleveled
MS Project:Leveled (Weekly)
MS Project:Leveled (Monthly)
Too optimistic.
More realistic.
Realistic and consistent.
Too unpredictable.
Too pessimistic.
pmBLOX:Productivity 100%
pmBLOX:Productivity 85%
Benefits of DPM
• Provides actionable information to make decisions before problems occur.
• Prevents resource allocation issues.• Shows which corrective actions are most effective
and for which circumstances.• Identifies high risk areas.• Quantifies project acceleration options and
shortest possible duration.
www.dynamicprogressmethod.com
Primary Uses of DPM
• Project validation:– Task execution– Management corrective actions
• Project acceleration:– Cost and labor consequences of acceleration– Theoretical shortest duration
Benefits of Project Validation
• Ensure that baseline plans are realistic and defendable prior to start of project.
• Ensure that “course corrections” and new plans are realistic and defendable.
• Reduce project risk.• Reduce midstream re-planning efforts.• Test consequences of underlying assumptions.• Ensure reliability of cost/schedule estimates.• Save staff time.
Using for Validation
End Customer
General Contractor
Subcontractors
Each “level” of the hierarchy can use pmBLOX to validate the plans from the “level” below.
A
A
A
For competitive bids at each “level”, pmBLOX can be used for apples-to-apples comparison, as well as a non-biased 3rd party.
B
B
B
DPM Simulations
Why Should You Care About DPM?
For Projects:• Better baseline plans• Better mid-course corrections• Better risk management
For Litigation:• Better understanding of fault.• Better defensibility of plans.• Better communication.
HigherHigherSuccessSuccess
RateRate
HigherHigherSuccessSuccess
RateRate
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