ground vehicles rollout brief 6mar121
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8/2/2019 Ground Vehicles Rollout Brief 6mar121
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Army and Marine Corps vehicle modernization plans are at a critical junction
Planners need to take a long view, given long development times and servicelives of ground vehicles, a dynamic security environment and increasingly scarce
We have identified seven trends that suggest that the future operating environmlethal, and also less permissive to the deployment, operation and sustainment oexpeditionary forces
U.S. ground forces (especially the Army) appear likely to face serious challengesdeploy, fight, and sustain themselves that vehicle modernization by itself canno
Given the need to think through these challenges, the absence of ready technolthem, and prospective constraints on modernization funding, the ground forcesless ambitious approach to modernization, while maximizing the ability to adap
and preserving key sectors of the industrial base
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1. Two central challenges to current modernization planning
a) Uncertainty
b) Austerity
2. Dealing with Uncertainty
a) Seven important trends affecting the future of land warfare
b) Their implications for ground vehicles
3. Dealing with Austerity
a) Conserving scarce resourcesb) Maximizing adaptability
c) Exploring crucial technologies
d) Protecting the industrial base
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Click to edit Master title Army and Marine Corps vehicle
modernization efforts currently at a critical junction
Modernization driven by aging of systems procured in the 1980s and
additional wear and tear and lessons learned from Iraq and Afghanistan
A number of ambitious programs are in their relatively early, uncertain stages:
Army:
M2/M3 Bradley to be replaced with new Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV)
M113 family of vehicles to be replaced with new Armored Multi-Purp
Marine Corps
AAV-7 to be replaced with new Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV)
LAV-25 to replaced with new Marine Personnel Carrier (MPC)
Both HMMWVs, MRAPs to be replaced with new Joint Light Tactical Vehicle
HMMWV to be recapitalized as Medium Enhanced Capability Vehicle (M
None of these programs have reached Milestone B, (the point at which a design
production), so all plans are relatively flexible at this point
All are planned to be funded more or less simultaneously
DEFUNDED
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Uncertainty
Given the long development times and service lives typical of
ground vehicles, planners need to think long-term20 to 30years out
Easier said than done, of course, as the world is undergoing
rapid demographic, political, economic, technological change
Austerity
Budget cuts are certain; their full extent is not
Defense cuts may not be fairly divided among the Services
Diminished resources make it more important than ever that we ge
not wrong)
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Predicting the future is a fools errand
BUT it is possible to reduce the risk of surprise and
hedge against the surprise that will still (inevitably) occur Careful analysis of trends can help identify potential discontinuities
in the future security environment that could have significant
implications for the ground forces and their vehicles
Seven key trends stand out:
1. The evolution of the armor/anti-armor competition
2. The emphasis of force protection
3. The growing importance of partners
4. The proliferation of precision-guided weaponry
5. The prevalence of non-linear operations
6. The urbanization of warfare
7. The proliferation of nuclear weapons
Pessimismis intended,
pleasant
surprises
are less of
an issue
Need
op
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Armor/anti-armor competition has always bthat the advantage fluctuates between anti-and vehicle protection measures
Silver bullets and invulnerability have both prove
History and recent experience in Iraq and Afsuggest that anti-armor weapons will be cheto field than the countermeasures that prote
Even non-state actors have been able to keep pace measures, as demonstrated by IED development
Active protection measures may provide a nprotection, but can likely be countered relatcheaply
Bottom Line: Looking forward, no level of ar(or other form of protection) is likely to provinvulnerability, the race will remain a close o
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Force protection has become an increasingly dominant priority for the
ground forces in operations and procurement
Especially true and particularly evident in Iraq and Afghanistan,where $43.5B spent on MRAPs, $20.8B spent on JIEDDO
This appears trend appears unlikely to be reversed
Moral imperative
Maintain combat power and operational
Protect the dollars and cents value of U.S. military personnel
Preserve the affordability of the all-volunteer force by
Bottom Line: It appears unlikely that U.S. ground forces will be able to
dial back force protectionbut maintaining the desired level will
likely grow more difficult and expensive (perhaps prohibitively so)
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Owing to the growing cost of projecting land po
partner capacity is a central element of our nat
strategy
No More Iraqs and No More Afghanistan
Resource constraints and the high cost of ex
operations
Play to U.S. competitive advantages
Partners will have varying levels of sophisticatio
Bottom Line: The United States may be challeng
vehicles that meet the needs and desires of part
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Click to edit Master title The United States is losing its near-monopoly in precision-
guided weaponry
Next decade or two will likely see the proliferation of G-
RAMMguided rockets, artillery, mortars, and missiles
Two forms appear likely to emerge:
Battlefield G-RAMManti-tank guided missiles, mortars,
shoulder-mounted surface-to-air missiles, all with ranges
of roughly 20 miles or less
Theater G-RAMMcruise missiles and ballistic missiles
with significantly greater ranges (20-1500 miles)
Bottom Line: Different mixes of the two types will likely be
employed by different adversaries, but both will pose serious
tactical- and operational-level problems for U.S. ground forces
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Trend in warfare is toward non-linear operat
G-RAMM could provide adversaries ability toat the tactical level (e.g. inside bases like Cam
operational level (e.g. APODs and SPODs in t
Bottom Line: The prevalence of non-linear op
especially when combined with G-RAMMhimplications for a range of ground operations
defense of formerly safe rear-area assets (e
points) and convoy operations
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Demographic trends show a clear movement toward
urbanization
Urban environments challenge preferred U.S methods ofoperation
Dilute U.S. advantages in range, mobility, precision,
sensing and comms
Urban eviction and control operations typically require use
of sizable ground forces and involve protracted fights and
incurring heavy casualties
Clever adversaries will look to exploit this situation
Bottom Line: The ground forces will not be able to avoid urban
combat because it is hard, but rather will be compelled to
engage in it because it is hard
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Proliferation of nuclear weapons appears li
Thresholds at which use of nuclear weaponmay change
To date, U.S. forces have not mounted conv
operations against a nuclear-armed advers
Bottom Line: Looking forward, the ground
include operations in a nuclear environmen
for which they should prepare
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l k d l
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As these trends play out, they will almost certainly challenge U.S. Army
Corps power-projection operations
A far more lethal operational environment
Anti-armor advantage in the armor/anti-armor competition
G-RAMM
Nonlinear operations
Urban operations
Nuclear environment
Force protection will likely remain an imperative (for several reasons)
li k di i l
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But deploying and sustaining armored vehicleswhich is already challengingw
more difficult as environment becomes less permissive
The threat from anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities (e.g. battlefiel
RAMM) to air and sea ports of debarkation, fixed bases, and depots could s
increase the costs in blood and treasure of deploying and sustaining large,
forces
Non-linear threats to sustainment operations will make sustaining logistica
vehicles still more difficult
The Army and Marine Corps need to develop operational concepts that will info
to deploy, fight, and sustain themselves in this environment
THIS POSES A DILEMMA TO WHICH
THERE IS NO READILY APPARENT TECHNOGICAL SOLUTIO
Cli k di M i l
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Growing resource constraints require careful resource allocation
In the absence of a major breakthrough in vehicle defense technologies
large sums on developing new systems seems ill-advised
Ground forces should seek to use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do
without whenever possible by:
1. Extending the service lives and enhancing the utility of existing veh
appear well suited to future challenges and can be affordably recap
2. Procuring off-the-shelf (OTS) solutions when existing vehicles canno
modified to meet anticipated needs but OTS (perhaps modified) veh
3. Undertaking ambitious developmental efforts only when 1. and 2.cannot meet needs AND there is a high degree of assurance that a
from-scratch design will provide a discontinuous boost in effectiveness
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Given the uncertainty inherent in the future security
environment, need to mitigate its consequences by maximizing
the adaptability of new andrecapitalized vehicles
M113: 40+ variants in service 50+ years on
Several measures could enhance adaptability:
Employing an open architecture approach (easily
replaceable components, standard interfaces, etc.) that
enables plug and play of subcomponents
Designing in surplus space, weight, and power (SWaP) in
order to facilitate future modifications
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Click to edit Master title Science and Technology (S&T) funding is the seed corn of future capabilities; nee
Trends suggest several priority areas for S&T investment:
Protection
Possible to reverse cost imposition equation?
Fuel Efficiency
Ground vehicles are a major source of fuel demand (roughly 1/3 of wart
High fuel consumption rates increase effects of supply interdiction and e
convoys to attack (1/8 of Army casualties related to fuel convoys)
Reduce sustainment requirements
Policy action needed: decisions need to account for the fully burden cost Robotics
Robotic systems ideal for dull, dirty, and dangerous work
Address force protection challenges
Free up trade space taken up by protective measures
Reduce sustainment requirements
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Whatever modernization strategy is pursued, ground forces need to co
effects on the industrial base
Age of austerity will likely bring about contraction of the defense indus
Some design and manufacturing capability could be lost, and could be
expensive (if not impossible) to recover later
Accordingly, ground services should identify the most critical sectors of
vehicle industrial base and make a deliberate effort to sustain them
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