growing prosperity in austin - february 2014

Growing Prosperity in AustinFebruary 2014

202/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

• Austin owned the ten-year period 2003-2013 compared to other US metropolitan areas

• Success can breed complacency—need renewed sense of urgency about underlying challenges to Austin’s future prosperity

• Time for big ideas is now

Summary

302/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

US (MSA)

Austin MSA

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) real GDP grew by 47% between 2001 and 2012, second only to Houston MSA among large metro areas (GDP >$50B).

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data adjusted for inflation (2013 Dollars).

GDP Growth (Annual)

402/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Job Growth (Annual)

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Texas

US

Austin MSA

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

Austin MSA ranked #1 in job growth (23%) among large metros (500,000+ pop) between 2001 and 2012.

502/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Net Migration (2010)

Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map created by Forbes.

Travis County gained (net) average of 8,820 people and $321 million in household income per year from other states between 2006 and 2010.

January 14, 2014| Growing Prosperity in AustinSource: Internal Revenue Service (# of people). Map created by Forbes. Map shows 2010 tax year.

702/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

78701 Pop (2010): 6,841

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Map by ESRI.

802/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Net Migration, Diff State

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000 CA 35%LA 23%

FL 5%CA 24%FL 10%

IL 7%CA 15%IL 7%FL 6%

CA 42%

Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).In-migration from different state averages about 23,000 people per year (06-10).

Travis County

902/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Pre-Recession Leaders (2007)

York, SCWilliamson, TX

Fulton, GACollin, TXTravis, TXHarris, TXKing, WA

Gwinnett, GAOrleans, LA

Bexar, TXTarrant, TX

Mecklenburg, NCWake, NCClark, NV

Maricopa, AZ

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

7,573

9,840

Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).

Net migration from different state

1002/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Post-Recession Leaders (2010)

Williamson, TXDenver, COOrleans, LA

Wake, NCPinal, AZ

Travis, TXFairfax, VAFulton, GATarrant, TX

Dallas, TXEl Paso, CO

Bexar, TXHarris, TX

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

3,943

7,030

Source: Internal Revenue Service (# of people).

Net migration from different state

1102/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Popular Neighborhoods

1. Steiner Ranch2. Milwood/Arrowwood3. North Burnet/Domain4. Blackhawk/Hidden Lake5. Canyon Creek6. Hyde Park

7. North Loop8. Onion Creek9. Barton Creek/Hills10. Old West Austin11. Northwest Hills12. Preston Oaks

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007-2011.

1202/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Cost of Living (Housing - Sale)

Durham

Nashville

Raleigh

Portland

Denver

Seattle

Los Angeles

New York

Washington DC

Boston

San Francisco

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800

Median list price per sq ft

Austin$153

Downtown Austin $427

Source: Zillow.com, December 2013.

Austin’s most expensive neighborhood is cheaper than median prices in SF, Boston, DC, and NYC.

1302/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Raleigh

Durham

Nashville

Portland

Denver

Los Angeles

Seattle

Washington DC

Boston

San Francisco

New York

$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50

Austin$1.22

Downtown Austin $2.40

Median list price per sq ft

Cost of Living (Housing - Rent)

Source: Zillow.com, December 2013.

02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Opportunity Austin: Challenges

14

1502/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Williamson

Hays

Per Capita Income (US=100)

Income Stagnation

Travis

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

1602/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Asian

White

Black or African American

Hispanic or Latino

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

30%

45%

73%

80%

Education Inequality% Pop Age 25+ with No Completed Postsecondary Degree (MSA)

Source: US Census Bureau, 2009 ACS 1-Year Estimates. Living wage from CPPP http://familybudgets.org. Assumes employer-paid health care & no savings.

64% of job openings in 2013-23 paying a living wage for a family of one adult and one child ($17 per hour) will require a postsecondary degree.No children – 43%

02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Affordability#affordATX

17

1802/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

• We have no idea how many people are being “pushed out” of Austin

• Separating true lack of affordability and consumer preference for type of housing is not a popular topic

• Need better understanding of the combined effect of housing and transportation costs

Research Questions

02/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

Opportunity Austin: Big Ideas

19

2002/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

• Education—set goal of completed postsecondary degree for majority of working age population in MSA (54%/519K people age 25-64 had no postsecondary in 2009)

• Inclusion—use Dell Medical School opportunity to show how Austin’s innovation economy can produce broad-based wealth creation

Big Ideas

2102/10/14 | Real Estate Council of Austin, Regional Issues Committee

• Make Austin the first city in the US to eliminate working poverty

• Embrace work-readiness alongside college-readiness at all levels of secondary and postsecondary

• End veteran homelessness

Bigger Ideas

@civicanalytics

http://civicanalytics.com

512-731-7851

brian@civicanalytics.com

Brian Kelsey, Principal