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SCA METHOD APPLIED TO SMALL FAMILY-OWNED FIRM
Guilherme Luiz Antunes MajorMischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain
ALIO-INFORMS Joint International MeetingJune 6 - 9, 2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina
Motivation
• Good decision-making is crucial to success in any business
• It’s difficult to deal with ill-structured problems• Ill-structured problems are common in the daily life
of organizations• Small family-owned business seeking to better
structure its decision-making process
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Objective
Strategic Choice Approach (SCA) is applied to the problem of defining future guidelines of a small family-owned firm.
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Ill-Structured Problems
Ill-structured problems are characterized by:– Multiple actors– Multiple perspectives– Conflicting interests– Important intangible aspects– Relevant uncertainty
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Problem Structuring Methods
• PMS are used to deal with ill-structured problems• They are characterized by
– able to conciliate multiple different perspectives– accessible to all decision-makers, so the problem
structuring becomes a participative process– an iterative process– able to provide partial solutions or local improvements
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Problem Structuring Methods
Some PSM:
– Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA)
– Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) – Strategic Choice Approach (SCA)
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Strategic Choice Approach
Focused on managing uncertainties and complexity of real-time problems
– Sources of uncertainty:• Uncertainty about working Environment (UE)• Uncertainty about guiding Values (UV)• Uncertainty about Related decisions (IR)
– Decision-making is subject to daily life pressure and urgencies (not an isolated process)
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Strategic Choice Approach
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Modified problem
Current problem
More info
More coordination
IV
IA
IR
Pressure for
decision
Time
Clearer objectives
Strategic Choice Approach
• Complementary modes of decision-making activity:– Shaping mode: definition of what will be decided and how
are these decisions related to each other– Designing mode: generation of alternatives/courses of
action and analysis of the compatibility of these courses of action if taken together
– Comparing mode: comparison of different set of alternatives and identification of the most promissing ones
– Choosing mode: listing of uncertainties, identification of exploratory options and building of commitment package.
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Strategic Choice Approach
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Comparing mode
Designing mode
Choosing mode
Shaping mode
Multiple output
Multiple input
Case study
• The firm:
– Family-owned business– Small firm (600-1200 meals/day)– Location: Pontes e Lacerda – MT
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Pontes e Lacerda
Shaping mode
Shaping mode:– Define decision areas– Identify decision links– Build a decision graph– If the graph is too complicated, rearrange positions– Emphasize urgent and more relevant decision areas– Define the decision focus
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Shaping mode
Decision areas– Description of any situation in which different courses of
action are believed to be possible
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Decision areas Label
Open a restaurant in Cuiabá? RESTCBÁ?
Build a place to rent in Cuiabá? IMOVCBÁ?
Open a supermarket in another small town ? SUPINT?
Sell idle equipment? VENDEQ?
How to manage electronic information? INFOEL?
Take part in new bids? NOVASLIC?
Shaping mode
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Decision areas Label
Buy new equipment? MODERNQ?
Change hiring policies? POLCONT?
Sell building in Nova Lacerda-MT? VENDIMOV?
Hire a driver? PROFTRANS?
Which employee qualification policy to adopt? QUALFUNC?
Shaping mode
• Decision Link– Indicates that it may be different to analyse the decision
areas together or one-by-one
• Decision Graph– Graphic representation of decision areas (circles) and of
decision links (lines)
• Decision Focus– Decision areas thought to be the most relevant and which,
in a first moment, will be kept in the decision process
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Shaping mode
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• Case Study decision graph
Shaping mode
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• Rearranged graph• Clustered decision areas:
– Blue: New Business/Real-state– Green: Human Resources– Red: Equipment
• Classified decision areas• Established decision focus
Decision focus
Undefined alternatives
Important consequences
Urgent
Highly connected to other areas
Designing mode
Designing mode:– Identify decision options in each decision area– Identify incompability among decision options (option
bars)– Build the decision schemes
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Designing mode
• Decision Options– Any course of action, related to a decison area, thought to
be feasible
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Decision areas Options Label
NOVASLIC? ●Take part only in regional bids LICIREG
●Take part in bids in the state of Mato Grosso LICIMT
●Don’t take part in new bids ÑLICI
POLCONT? ●Hire only people who have experience in the sector CONTEXP
●Hire only people who already live in the region CONTREG
Designing mode
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Decision areas Options Label
POLCONT? ●Hire only people who have experience in the sector
and already live in the region
CONTEXR
EG
●Don’t estabilish a hiring policy ÑPOLÍTICA
INFOEL? ●Hire someone fully dedicated to the electronic
information
FUNCESP
●Keep to manage these informations without a fully
dedicated person
ÑFUNC
Designing mode
• Option bar– Graphic representation of the incompatibility between two
distinct decision options related to two different decision areas
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Option barsUncertain option bars
Designing mode
• Decision Scheme– Combinação de opções viáveis, cada uma delas tomada de
uma área de decisão dentro do foco do problema
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Designing mode
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FUNCESP
LICIREG
CONTEXP
CONTREG
CONTEXREG
LICIMT
CONTEXP
CONTREG
CONTEXREG
ÑLICI
ÑPOLÍTICA
ÑFUNCÑLICIÑPOLÍTICA
Esquema A
Esquema B
Esquema C
Esquema D
Esquema E
Esquema F
Esquema G
Esquema H
• Decision Scheme– Set of feasible decision
options each coming from a different decision area within the decision focus.
– INFOEL– NOVASLIC– POLCONT
Comparing mode
Comparing mode you:– Define the comparison areas– Define the assessment method for each comparison area
(e.g. profits , employee satisfaction rate, etc.)– Assess courses of action relative to their flexibility– Build a shortlist of decision schemes (choose the most
promissing ones)– Make relative assessments of the shortlisted schemes– Make advantage comparisons– Assess the overall advantage balance
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Comparing mode
Comparison area– Area of concern in which it is believed to be relevant to
consider the possible outcomes of the different courses of action
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Comparison area Label
Revenue and profit RECLUC:
Administrative difficulty ADM:
Risks RISCOS:
Long-term perspectives LPRAZO:
Level of investment INVEST:
Comparing mode
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Comparison areas Label
Customer satisfaction SATISCOM:
Employee satisfaction SATISFUNC:
Qualidade dos vínculos empregatícios VINCULOS:
Required time of the owners TEMPOEMP:
Dedicated employee salary SALARIO:
Comparing mode
• Pre-selection of decision schemes– Selection of most promissing decision schemes
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Scheme RECLUC: ADM: RISCOS: LPRAZO: Dominated by:
A 4º 5º 4º 2º B, C
B 4º 4º 3º 2º
C 4º 3º 4º 1º
D 1º 8º 7º 5º E, F
E 1º 7º 6º 5º
F 1º 6º 7º 4º
G 7º 1º 1º 7º
H 7º 2º 1º 7º G
Comparing mode
• Relative Assessment– Comparison of the difference of the outcomes of two
decison schemes regarding one specific comparison area
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Comparing mode
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Sche
me
B Scheme C
E: ExtremeS: SignificantC: ConsiderableM: MarginalN: Negligible
NM M SC ESE C• Relative Assessments and
Advantage Comparison
Comparing mode
• Balanço Geral de Vantagens– Condensação em um único índice da comparação de
vantagens em todas as áreas de comparação
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NM M SC ESE C
Comparing mode
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NM M SC ESE C
Comparing mode
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NM M SC ESE C
Choosing mode
Choosing mode:– Indentify uncertainty areas– Classify them according to their nature – UE, UR and UV– Assess the importance of the uncertainty areas– Find exploratory options to investigate the uncertainty
areas– Define action scheme for the most urgent decision areas– Establish a commitment package defining courses of
actions and further exploratory options to be taken
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Choosing mode
• Uncertainty area– Any source of uncertainty that affects the final decison
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Uncertainty areas Labels Recognition
? Possibility of winning the bids ?VENCLIC Shaping mode
? Necessity of recruiting policy ?NECPOLCONT Shaping mode
? Worker/Labor availability ?DISPMÃO Designing mode
? Standarizing data format with suppliers ?DADOS Designing mode
? Feasibility of operating in the whole MT ?MTVIÁVEL Designing mode
Choosing mode
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Uncertainty areas Labels Recognition
? Brazilian economy in the upcoming years ?ECONOMIA Comparing mode
? Food price ?PREÇOALI Comparing mode
? Client locations ?LOCAL Comparing mode
? Importance of ADM: ?IMPADM Comparing mode
? Importance of RISCOS: ?IMPRISCOS Comparing mode
? Importance of LUCREC ?IMPLUCREC Comparing mode
? Long-term results ?RESLPRAZO Comparing mode
Choosing mode
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Uncertainty areas Labels Recognition
? Dificuldade administrativa adicional
ao se trabalhar em todo o MT e não
apenas na região
?DIFICILMT Comparing mode
? Número e tipo de refeições que serão
contratados
? REFEIÇÕES Comparing mode
? Prazo dos contratos futuros ?PRAZOCONT Comparing mode
Choosing mode
• Exploratory Option– Actions for decreasing the uncertainty level
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Uncertainty Areas Exploratory Option Assessment
?IMPADM
?IMPRISCOS
?IMPLUCREC
•Decision-maker group
meeting to rediscuss the
issue
Confidence: Confidence in the balance
between C and F considerably higher
Resources: few hours of discussion
Delay: a few days
Choosing mode
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Uncertainty Areas
Exploratory Option Assessment
?DIFICILMT Investigate infrastructure
of potential clients’
location
Confidence: confidence in the
relative assessment of C and F
relative to ADM: reasonably higher
Resources: web reasearch, informal
talk with people who know the
locations and visits
Delay around 2 weeks (after list of
potential client is ready)
Choosing mode
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Uncertainty Areas Exploratory Option Assessment
?REFEIÇÕES • Prospective potentials
customers about
number and ype of
meals. s
Confidence: confiança um pouco
maior na avaliação relativa de C e F
quanto à RECLUC: e RISCOS:.
Resources few hours for searching,
calls and eventuals meetings. Delay:
about 2 weeks
Choosing mode
Commitment Package
– Defining courses of actions and further exploratory options to be taken
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Choosing mode
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A.D.
Decisões Imediatas Espaço de Decisões Futuras
Ações Explorações Decisões AdiadasPlanos de
ContingênciaI
NFOEL?
FUNCESP
Se a contratação não se provar compensadora, analisar se problema é o colaborador ou a sua função
Choosing mode
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A.D.
Decisões Imediatas Espaço de Decisões Futuras
Ações ExploraçõesDecisões Adiadas
Planos de Contingência
POLCONT?
CONTEXREG
Não havendo de mão-de–obra, flexibilizar política de contratação
Choosing mode
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A.D.
Decisões Imediatas Espaço de Decisões Futuras
Ações Explorações Decisões AdiadasPlanos de
ContingênciaN
OVASLIC?
Conduzir reuniões para reduzir incertezas sobre a importância de ADM:, RISCOS: e LUCREC:.
EM 1 SEMANA•Se ainda não for possível escolher entre C e F, realizar a listagem e sondagem de empresas
EM 3 SEMANAS•Caso tenha sido necessário a sondagem, efetuar pesquisa sobre infra-estrutura
Conclusions
• The results showed that the SCA is easy to apply and able to deal with uncertainty, even in complex problems, contributing to the decision group process.
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References• FRANCO, L.A.; CUSHMAN, M.; ROSENHEAD, J. (2002). Project review and
learning in the construction industry: Embedding a problem structuring method within a partnership context. European Journal of Operational Research, 2004, v.152, p.586-601
• FRIEND, J. K & Hickling, A. Planning under pressure: the strategic choice approach. Oxford: Pergamon, 1ª reimpressão. 1988. 338 p.
• GOMES, M. C. Os fundamentos do strategic choice approach no contexto de transformação das organizações.In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ENGENHARIA DE PRODUÇÃO, 17., 1997 . Disponível em <http://www.abepro.org.br/biblioteca/ENEGEP1997_T5106.PDF>. Acesso em 29 de maio de 2009
• PINHEIRO, P.R.; SOUZA, G. G. C.; CASTRO, A. K. A. Estruturação do problema multicritério para a produção de jornal. Pesquisa Operacional, 2008, v.28, n.2, p. 203-216.
ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires , Argentina 45
References• STERNADT, J. M. A utilização da abordagem "strategic choice" para o
aperfeiçoamento de um centro de prestação de serviços. 1997.87 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia). Departamento de Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis. 1997
• VON WINTERFELDT, D,. FASOLO, B. Structuring decision problems: A case study and reflections for practitioners. European Journal of Operational Research, 2009, v.199, p.857-866
• MINGERS, J.; ROSENHEAD, J. Problem structuring methods in action. European Journal of Operational Research, 2004, v.152, p.530-554
• UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE. Institute for Manufacturing. Strategic Options Development and Analysis. Disponível em http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/dstools/con trol/soda.html. Acesso em: 25/10/2009.
ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires , Argentina 46
References
• KRUJIF, J. Problem structuring in interactive decision-making processes; How interaction, problem perceptions and knowledge contribute to a joint formulation of a problem and solutions. 2007. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, Enchede, 2007.
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