hale & tempest global generics marketplace dr. brian w tempest brian.tempest@clara.co.uk uk...

Hale & Tempest

Global Generics Marketplace

Dr. Brian W Tempest

www.briantempest.com

brian.tempest@clara.co.uk

UK

18,19,20 March 2014

Hale & Tempest

Hale & Tempest

1. Global Healthcare

2. Big Pharma

3.Global Generic Marketplace

4.Global Generic Companies

5.Indian Generic Marketplace

6.Indian Generic Companies

7. Country Generic Markets

8. Biosimilars

9. Generic Distribution

10. Over The Counter Consumer Medines

11. Contract Manufacturers

Hale & Tempest

Global Healthcare & Big Pharma

Chesapeake

Dr. Brian W Tempest

www.briantempest.com

brian.tempest@clara.co.uk

UK

March 2014

Hale & Tempest

1. Global Healthcare

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There are only a few certain thingsSource: T Stevenson, Fidelity Worldwide Investment Director, S Telegraph April 21 2013

•Populations growth

•Ageing

•Expansion of the World’s Middle Classes

•Increasing demand for healthcare is as close to given as investors can hope for

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Rise of the Middle Classes source: Frost & Sullivan

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Aging in OECDsource: EGA

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Global Healthcare Growth by Region Source: Sunday Telegraph April 21 2013

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Healthcare costs versus GDP & Wages

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Public Health as % of GDPSource: UNDP 15 October 2012

Cuba 9.7% USA 9.5% France 9.3% UK 8.1%

Brazil 4.2% RSA 3.9% Russia 3.2% China 2.7% India 1.2%

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Military vs Healthsource: FT 24February 2014

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Public Health Reform Everywhere

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OECD Healthcare Expenditure Growth

source: Annalisa Belloni OECD at EGA Conference 13 June 2013

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Everybody Concerned about Health Costs

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Healthcare as % of Government Spend

source: WHO, Jefferies

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Public & Private Healthcare as % of GDP

source: WHO, India is <4%

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How Easy to Start a Business in EMs

source: Mint 13 October 2013

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Number of Companies with Active R&D Pipelines source: Citeline Pharma R&D Annual Review 2013

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Worldwide R&D Spend

source: Evaluate Pharma 23 June 2013

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R&D Spending by Countrysource: Economist March 22 2014

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Rise of Asia R&Dsource: Economist March 22 2014

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Emerging Markets Pharma Markets, $b

Source: Citi Research August 2013

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Value of EM Bourses - limited availabilitysource: January 18 2014 Economist

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OECD vs. BRICS

source: FT 9 October 2013

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Emerging Marketssource: Business India December 8 2013

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The Need for Universal Healthcare

source: ET 2 Aug 2013

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Healthcare will explode further in Asia

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Asian Healthcare Expenditure $b

source: EIU for countries PRC, HK, I, Ind, M, P, Si, SK, Tw , Th, V

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Pharmaceutical Imports into USA source: Chemistry World July 2012

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Cipla - Washington Post Ad

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Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) for Hepatitis CSource: Pharmatimes February 7 2014

•In USA Gilead Sciences charges Sovaldi at $1000 a day for a 12 week course -$84,000

•The cost of manufacture of the same 12 week course is $68 to $136 according to MSF generating a gross profit over 99%

•In India and other emerging markets Gilead plans to charge $2,000 for a 24 week course leading to a gross profit of 86%

Hale & Tempest

Evolving Emerging Markets IP PolicySource: Leaky Pharma 27 Jan 2014

•“This is genocide, This can sentence South Africans to death” – RSA Health Minister (Motsoaldi)

•1998 Big Pharma, Merck vs Mandela, PR disaster

•Enhanced Therapeutic Efficacy vs Incremental Efficacy

•2014 Merck, PhRMA, Lobbyist PAE vs RSA IP policy

•OECD growth +1-4% vs Emerging Markets at +10-13%

•WHO Executive Board – “we cannot be sidetracked from our course of action of defending public health and the right to life” (DG Precious Matsoso)

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Davos 2014 -Ten Global Risks of Highest Concern source: Davos 2014

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Aid by Countrysource: Economist 12 April 2014

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2. Big Pharma

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Big Pharma Business Model Broken source: Pharmatimes World News April 2012

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Pharma in Crisis Source: Pharmatimes February 2013

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A Slide from a UK Headhunter

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Top 10 Marketing Settlements Source: Fiercepharma 26 June 2012

GSK $3b 2012 Pfizer $2.3b 2009 J&J $2.2b 2012 Abbott 1.6b 2012 Lilly $1.4b 2009 Merck $1.0b 2011 Serono $0.7b 2005 Perdue $0.7b 2007 Allergan $0.6b 2010

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A Pfizer Decade of Bribery source: FT August 7 2012

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The Biggest Healthcare Fraud in HistorySource: Daily Mail 3 July 2012

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China Bribery Investigations

source: Jefferies November 2013

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Emerging Markets are Not so Easy

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Will Big Pharma Change?

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Or be like Popeye the sailor man

“I Yam what I Yam what I Yam”

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The Strategic Changes by Big PharmaSource: FT December 5 2012, Franz Humer, Roche Chairman

•Possible to cut 30-50% off development costs via CT efficiencies

•Shift from product focus to patient focus using diagnostic tools

• In Europe there isn’t one Government or politician interested in the health of the Industry

•USA & Latin American countries open to rewarding innovation

•Industry has to change fundamentally how it manages costs

•Leaner headquarters & smaller central functions •Division of the industry into 2 parts

• A Innovative businesses able to charge a premium price

• B Large scale manufacturers who can compete on cost

Hale & Tempest

Divestment & Spin Off StrategiesSource: IPA 2013

•Novartis - Blood Diagnostics, Animal Health, OTC, Vaccines•Bayer - Bayer Material Sciences likely

•Abbott - Abbvie (pharma assets)

•Pfizer - Nutrition, Zoetis Animal Health

•Merck - separate growth businesses from value businesses, Consumer OTC

•GSK - tail products to Aspen, drinks brands

•J&J - Diagnostics

Hale & Tempest

2013 The Year of 8 Blockbusterssource: Evaluate March 2014

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2013 the 8 Blockbusterssource: Evaluate March 2014

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Big Pharma Top 10 by 2012 Sales

Source: FiercePharma 29 November 2013

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Top 10 Medtech Companies

source: Evaluate Pharma, 23 September 2013

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Pharma & Medtech Global Markets

source: Evaluate 23 September 2013

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Global Pharma Salessource: Evaluate April 2014

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Sales at Risksource: Evaluate April 2014

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Global Pharma sales lost & sales gainedsource: Evaluate March 2014

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Biggest Expected Launches of 2014source: EvaluatePharma

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Strength of Local Companiessource: IMS May 2012

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Big Pharma Top Risers & Fallers in 2013source: Evaluate March 2014

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2013 a healthy year for Pharmasource: Evaluate March 2014

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Thank Youbrian.tempest@clara.co.uk

www.briantempest.com