hdr 20072008 presentation
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8/3/2019 HDR 20072008 Presentation
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The 21
st
Centuryclimate challenge
³One generation plants a tree;the next generation gets the shade.´
Chinese Proverb
³You already know enough.So do I. It is not knowledge we lack.
What is missing is the courageto understand what we know
and to draw conclusions.´Sven Lindqvist
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The world has less than a decade to avoiddangerous climate change that could bring
unprecedented human development reversals
Climate change is a threat to humanity as a whole.But it is the poor , a constituency with noresponsibility for the ecological debt we are runningup, who face the most immediate and most severe
human costs
The Human Development Report 2007/2008 calls for a µtwin track¶ approach that combines stringentmitigation to limit 21st Century warming to less than2 degree centigrade, with strengthened internationalcooperation on adaptation
The forthcoming conference of the parties in Bali isa unique opportunity to put the interests of theworld¶s poor and future generations at the heart of climate change negotiations
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The 21st Century climatechallenge
Three distinctive characteristics:
± It is cumulative
± The effects are irreversible
± Large time lags ± today¶s
emissions are tomorrow¶sproblems
± It is global
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Rising CO2 emissions are pushing up
stocks & increasing temperatures In the past 100 years
the earth has warmed0.70C
Atmosphericconcentrations of CO2
are increasing at 1.9ppm each year. Itreached 379 ppm in2005
Between 2000 and 2005an average of 26 Gt of CO2 was releases intothe atmosphere eachyear
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The Global carbon
account Defining dangerous ± keeping within
2°C
Establishing a 21st Century carbonbudget
Defining a sustainable emission¶s
pathway
The problem of inertia ± the case for adaptation
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The 21st Century carbon
budget is set at 1,456 Gt CO2
to avoid dangerous climate
change
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The 21st Century carbon budget
is set for early expiry
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Charting a course away
dangerous climate changeThe sustainable emissions pathway is as
follows
± The world ± cuts of 50 percent by2050 with a peak by 2020
± Developed countries ± cuts of 80percent by 2050
± Developing countries ± cuts of 20percent by 2050
with respect to 1990
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Halving emissions by 2050 could
avoid dangerous climate change
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Some people walk more
lightly than others The UK (population 60 million)
emits more CO2 than Egypt,Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam(total population 472 million)
The state of Texas (population 23million) has a deeper footprint thanthe whole sub-Saharan Africa (720million people)
The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper footprint than
the 766 million people living in the50 least developed countries
The distribution of currentemissions points to an inverserelationship between climate
change vulnerability andresponsibility
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How many planets?
The 21st century carbon budget amountsto 1,456 Gt or around 14.5 Gt CO2 per year
Total CO2 emissions in 2004 stood at 29Gt
If every person living in the developingworld would have the same carbon
footprint than an average person in theUS or Canada, we would need theequivalent to nine planets to absorb theCO2
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Climate shocks:risk and vulnerabilityin an unequal world
³The countries most vulnerable are least ableto protect themselves. They also contributeleast to the global emissions of greenhouse
gases. Without action they will pay a highprice for the actions of others.´
K ofi Annan
³Like slavery and apartheid, poverty isnot natural. It is man-made and
it can be overcome and eradicated bythe actions of human beings.´
Nelson Mandela
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Risk and vulnerability
Climate risk is an external fact of lifefor the entire world
Vulnerability is a measure of capacityto manage climate hazards withoutsuffering a long-term potentiallyirreversible loss of well-being.
The state of human developmentshapes the process by which risk isconverted into vulnerability
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Disaster risk is skewed towards
developing countries
1 in 19 people areaffected in
developing countries
The correspondingnumber is 1 in 1,500in OECD countries
A risk differentialof 79
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The human development
backdrop Poverty, child mortality and malnutrition
± There are still around 1 billion people living onless than a dollar a day.
±
Around 28 percent of children in LDCs areunderweight or stunted. ± Only 32 countries (of 147) are on track to
achieve the MDG on child mortality
Inequality
± More than 80 percent of the world¶s populationlives in countries where income differentials arewidening
± Underlying inequalities act as a barrier for earlyrecovery after shocks
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Low human development trapsThe potential human costs of climate
change have been understated
Climate related risks force people intodownward spirals of disadvantage thatundermine future oppurtunities
In Ethiopia, childre exposed to a drought inearly childhood are 36 percent more likely tobe malnourished five years later ± a figure thattranslates into 2 million additional cases of child maknutrition
Indian women born during a drought or aflood in the 1970s were 19 percent less likelyto ever attend primary school
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Five human development tipping
points Reduced agricultural productivity
Heightened water insecurity
Increased exposure to extremeweather events
Collapse of ecosystems
Increased health risks
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Climate change will hurt
developing country agriculture
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Heightened water insecur ity ± glacial melting
Glacial melting possesthreats to more than 40percent of the world¶spopulation.
In the arid cost of Peru,
80 percent of fresh water originates from glacialmelt.
The flow of the Indus,could decline as much as70 percent
In Central Asia, losses of glacial melt into AmuDarya and Syr Daryarivers could restrict water for irrigation andhydroelectric power
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Extreme weather events The number of additional people experiencing
coastal flooding could range from 134 to 332million for a 3o- 4o increase in temperature.
Tropical storms could raise the figure to 371 millionby the end of the 21st century
Possible consequences of one meter rise in sealevel
± In Lower Egypt, 6 million people displaced and 4,500kms2 of farmland flooded
± In Vietnam, 22 million people displaced ± In Bangladesh, 18 percent of land area could be
inundated affecting 11 percent of the population ± In the Maldives, more than 80 percent of land area is
less than 1 meter above sea level
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Avoiding dangerousclimate change:
strategies for mitigation
³We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.´
Albert Einstein
³Speed is irrelevant if you are going
in the wrong direction.´Mahatma Gandhi
³Alone we can do so little;together we can do so much.´
Helen K eller
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Avoiding dangerous climate
change ± strategies for mitigation Setting mitigation targets:
current problems
Pricing carbon: the role of markets
The role of public policy:regulation and research &development
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Problems setting emission
reduction targets Insufficient ambition
Insufficient urgency
Inaccurate indicators
Inadequate sectoral coverage
Inconsistent base years
Targets are de-linked from policies
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Pricing carbon emissions
Market failure: Polluters do notsuffer the worse consequences
of their own pollution Immediate challenge: to push the
price of carbon to a levelconsistent with the sustainable
emissions pathway Ways to do it: taxation and cap-
and-trade and trade
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Where should the price of carbon be
set?
How should the price be generated?
± Under carbon taxation emitters arerequired to pay for each tone of CO2 theyproduce
± Under cap-and-trade, the government setsan overall emissions cap and issuestradable allowances to allow business the³right to emit´
Taxation versus cap-and-trade
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The r elative merits of taxation
and cap-and-trade Administration
Price predictability
Revenue mobilization
The differences can beexaggerated
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The critical role of regulation
andgovernment action
The energy mix
The residential sector
Vehicle emission standards
R&D and deployment of low carbontechnologies
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The Energy Mix
Currently energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels
Renewable energy is not competitive with coal-firedpower ± price of carbon and incentives for predicable markets can play a role
± Germany¶ Renewable Sources Act ± fix price for 20 years
± Spain ± wind power satisfies around 8 percentof total electricity demand. In 2005 saved 19million t CO2 emissions
± Denmark ± tax breaks on capital investments. Intwo decades wind has increased the share inelectricity generation to 20 percent
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Residential Sector
Low cost mitigation
In OECD residential accounts for 35-40 percent of national CO2 emissions
Appliances alone produce roughly 12 percent
Policies on building and appliances could save upto 29 percent emissions (3.9 Gt CO2) by 2020equivalent to three times current emissions of India
Average European household could save 200 to
1000 Euros annually through energy efficiency
The best efficiency standards of electricalappliances could save 322 million t CO2 by 2010equivalent to 100 million cars off the road (all carsfrom Canada, France and Germany)
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Vehicle Emission Standards
Personal transportation is the largestconsumer of oil
In OECD the automobile sector accounts for
about 30 percent of total greenhouse gasemissions
Improvements in the United States regulatorystandards would represent cuttings equivalent
to France¶s total emissions
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Increased coal efficiency could
cut CO2 emissions
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Adapting to the inevitable:national action andinternational cooperation
³If you are neutral in a situation of injustice,
you have chosen the side of the oppressor.´ Archbishop Desmond Tutu
³An injustice committed againstanyone is a threat to everyone.´
Montesquieu
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By mid-2007, actualmultilateral financingdelivered throughUNFCCC amounted toUS$ 26 million
This is equivalent toone week spending infloods defences inthe UK
Amounts are not theonly problem. Timingand fulfillment of pledges presentfurther limitations
Towards adaptation apartheid?
Developed country investments dwarf adaptation funds
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Investing in adaptation up to
2015
Additional financing needs for climateproofing infrastructure and building resilience
are estimated to be at least 86 billion by 2015- Climate proofing infrastructure
- Social protection
- Strengthening disaster response
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The Human Development Report
underscores that: The poor are suffering and will suffer more with climate change. They
are at gr eatest risk to face human development reversals leading tolow human development traps.
Climate change is an urgent matter. We need to act now.
Both mitigation and adaptation are needed to truly fight climatechange and the threats it poses to humanity.
Rich countries must cut emissions by 30% by 2020 and 80% by 2050.
International cooperation on finance and technology transfer is
needed. The report argues for the creation of a Climate ChangeMitigation Facility.
Extreme inequalities in adaptation capacity exist. Internationalcooperation has been slow to materialize. Adaptation plans needsneed to be part of wider strategies of poverty alleviation.
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