homes jobs and transport
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John Siraut
Homes, Jobs & Transport
John SirautEconomist - Associate DirectorColin Buchanan and Partners
Essex Planning Officers’ Association28 October 2004
John Siraut
Is it better to have homes and jobs located together, and are local links by car better or worse than longer
commutes by train ?
John Siraut
Presentation structure
◆ Homes◆ Work◆ Commuting◆ Economics, Planning, Environment◆ Solutions
John Siraut
Like Father like Son?
Education local local & distant
Jobs 1 7
Homes 1 5
Travel to work cycle/train/bus walk/train/bus/car
John Siraut
Housing demand -Essex◆ Change in population
– 1901-2001 1.1 to 1.6m
◆ Change in household size – 1901-2001 4.6 to 2.4
◆ Extra households – 1901-2001 240k to 670k– 110k due to increase in
population– 320k due to smaller
household size
John Siraut
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
1.45
1.55
1.65
1.75
52 Q
454
Q2
55 Q
4
57 Q
2
58 Q
4
60 Q
2
61 Q
4
63 Q
2
64 Q
4
66 Q
2
67 Q
4
69 Q
2
70 Q
4
72 Q
2
73
Q4
75 Q
2
76 Q
4
78 Q
2
79 Q
4
81 Q
2
82 Q
4
84 Q
2
85 Q
4
87 Q
2
88 Q
4
90 Q
2
91 Q
4
93 Q
2
94 Q
4
96 Q
2
97 Q
499
Q200
Q4
02 Q
2
03 Q
4
Housing affordability
John Siraut
Housing starts
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
John Siraut
Housing tenure
◆ Tenure 1914– Owned 10%– Private rented 90%
◆ Tenure 2001– Owned 69%– Social rented 19%– Private rented 10%
John Siraut
Housing & mobility
◆ Homeowner - average occupancy 15 years◆ Renter - average occupancy 10 years but
20% less than 12 months◆ <35 year olds - average occupancy 3 years◆ 60% of movers stay within 5 miles◆ 13% of moves are job related (of which 1/3
new job with new employer)
John Siraut
Men & women
◆ 1900 - workforce 70% male 30% female◆ 1911 - 10% married women in work◆ 2011 - 69% men, 57% women will be
economically active
John Siraut
Employees (Male & Female)
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
John Siraut
% in same job as 12 months ago
◆ 51% of 18-24 year olds◆ 71% lowest quartile of earnings ◆ 74% of private sector employees◆ <75% of 25-34 year olds◆ 80% in rented accommodation◆ 83% of public sector employees◆ 85% highest quartile of earnings◆ 86% of 50+ year olds◆ 89% of all parents ◆ 91% own accommodation outright
John Siraut
Jobs & housing
◆ 12.5% working population may change jobs each year
◆ 0.33% working population move house to take up a new job with a new employer each year
John Siraut
Method of travel to work 1890-2001
687803112001
45191605131970-79
62423720171940-49
0155172561890-99
CarTrainBusTramCycleWalk
John Siraut
Commuting
John Siraut
Commuting - Essex
◆ Average commute in Essex 8.6 miles◆ Ranges by ward from under 5 in parts of
Colchester to 13 miles in parts of Braintree◆ About 1/3 of males in Essex commute out of
the county for work
John Siraut
Mode of travel to work - Essex
◆ Up to 33% commute by underground in Epping
◆ Over 40% commute by national rail from Chafford
◆ Over 10% commute by bus in Colchester
◆ Over 80% drive in Uttlesford & Braintree
◆ Around 40% drive in Southend
◆ Almost 10% cycle in Harwich
◆ Over 1/3 walk in Uttlesford
John Siraut
Average trip length
1985/6 1992/4 2003 P % increase 2003/1985
Commuting 6.1 7.5 8.5 40%Business 17.3 17.6 20.9 21%Education 2.1 2.8 3.0 46%Escort education 1.4 1.8 2.1 51%Shopping 2.9 3.5 4.3 48%Visiting friends 6.7 7.8 9.2 37%Entertainment 6.0 7.9 8.1 35%All purposes 5.2 6.1 6.9 33%
John Siraut
% commuting by carHarlow
Resident and working within area 53%Working in area but resident outside 86%Resident in area but working elsewhere 70%
Chelmsford
Resident and working within area 55%Working in area but resident outside 79%Resident in area but working elsewhere 61%
Milton Keynes
Resident and working within area 60%Working in area but resident outside 86%Resident in area but working elsewhere 67%
John Siraut
Travel costs
◆ In the last decade in real terms– All motoring costs fallen
by 4%– Bus fares increased by
11%– Car purchase costs
fallen by 30%– London commuter rail
fares fallen by 6%
John Siraut
Car ownership
◆ 1951 86% households had no car◆ 2001 26% households had no car◆ 2001 28% households had 2 cars
John Siraut
In summary
◆ Massive increase in households◆ Greater female participation in labour force◆ Massive increase in car ownership◆ Switch from home renting to ownership◆ Travel is cheap ◆ Increase in house prices◆ Greater job mobility
John Siraut
Implications
◆ People less likely to live close to where they work
John Siraut
Economics V Planning V Environment
◆ Free market economy - freedom to choose where we live, work and travel
◆ Planning - land use allocations not determined by free market
◆ Environment - transport is generally not sustainable – CO2 emissions - car output 3.6 * rail
John Siraut
Solutions
◆ Planning – Ensure homes and jobs are co-located– More mixed use developments– Worker homes– But job mobility is higher than housing mobility– In Milton Keynes 20% of population commute out
and 25% of jobs are taken from outside
John Siraut
Solutions
◆ Tied housing– Distant past, common for employers to provide
housing for employees– Recent past most tied housing gone eg police – Present, move towards increase in tied
accommodation – Reduces labour mobility and introduces economic
inefficiencies in the market
John Siraut
Solutions
◆ Increase travel costs– Transport is to cheap leading to substantial
unsustainable commuting– Would lead to major changes in spatial demand
for housing– Politically unacceptable - impossible to put the
genie back in the bottle
John Siraut
Solutions
◆ London– Massive increase in housing provision– Improve education especially in the inner city– Tackle crime– Improve public transport in outer London– Introduce cordon charges for travel into Greater
London
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