host introduction: “state of the industry: follow the money”
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Twitter: #iMediaSummit
1Friday, February 7, 14
Follow the Money
February 10, 2014
Presented by Geoffrey RamseyChairman, Founder@geofframsey
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383 builds
782 data sources
50 slides
WARNING!
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About the numbers you are about to see
88.9%
$5.6B2.4
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The eMarketer process
• Reported revenues from major ad-selling companies;
• Data from “benchmark” sources, including quarterly reports from the IAB & PwC;
• Estimates from primary research firms, investment banks, independent analysts, agency forecast units;
• Consumer internet and mobile usage trends;
• Surveys among marketers, publishers, etc;
• eMarketer interviews with executives at ad agencies, brands, publishers and other leaders
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The Twitter Story
Time
EstimatedRevenue
Aug2012
$545
Feb2013
$583
$500
$500
$250
Feb 52014
2013actual
IPO
Twitter WW Ad Revenue for 2013 (millions)
$595
2% marginof error
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Yes, total media spending will continue to rise in 2014...
$187.3
2007
If you strip out digital,
1%
63% of marketers plan to cut spend on traditional media in order to fund
digital efforts
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Digital will grow nearly 13% this year
27.0% 31.7%
40%share of US
digital $
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13% growth in 2014???
But that’s not the big story.
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Desktopocalypse???
Are we reaching the “End of Days” for our desktop-centric ad ecosystem???
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$36Bin mobile
ads
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What I am NOT saying...Desktop ad business
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Mobile ad spending is on a tear
8X
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Mobile’s slice of the digital ad spending pie
Source: eMarketer, 2014
= 12% in 2012
= 22.5% in 2013
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= 57% of the digital pie in 2017
Source: eMarketer, 2014
$36Bin mobile
ads
Mobile = >1/2
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What you may be thinking...
$36Bin mobile
ads
“Stoned” “Screwy”
“Stupid”“Sponsored”
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8 Reasons To Believe Mobile Ad Spending
Will Eclipse Desktop by 2017
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Smartphones
Connected Consoles
ConnectedConsoles
Desktop PCs
Social Machines Social Machines
Laptop PCsConnected TVs
Ambient Surfaces
#1. Mobile devices have moved to the center of consumers’ multi-platform universe ...
Connected Cars
Wearable Technology
Tablets
©2014 eMarketer Inc.
19Friday, February 7, 14
... they’ve become the remote control for our lives
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#2. Smartphone and tablet penetration are ramping up
50%eMarketer (year end 2014)
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% of population on smartphones, by age group (2014)
TotalUnder 11
12 - 1718 - 2425 - 3435 - 4445 - 5455 - 64
65+0% 40% 80%
19%53.4%
59.9%76.8%
79.1%75.9%
51.4%3.8%
50.1%
Source: eMarketer, 2014
50%
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In 2017, two-thirds are on smartphones
TotalUnder 11
12 - 1718 - 2425 - 3435 - 4445 - 5455 - 64
65+0% 50% 100%
25%74%
82%92%93%94%
73%6%
64%
Source: eMarketer, 2014
64%
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Nearly 1/2 of the population will use a tablet by 2017
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#3. Smartphone and tablet adoption have brought us to a new inflection point in terms of time spent
©2014 eMarketer Inc.
2 hours 21 minutes19.4% of daily media time
2 hours 19 minutes19.2% of daily media time
Source: eMarketer, July 2013
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Time spent in hours: minutes
4:31 5:16
TV(38%)
2:21Mobile
TotalDigital
(45%)
~1/2
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Adobe/Keynote Systems
Arbitron Mobile
Chinet
BabyCenter
Barkley
comScoreCouncil for Research Excellence
Credit Suisse
Deloitte
Donald W. Reynolds Journalism Institute (RJI) at the University of Missouri
Edison Research
Experian Simmons
Fleishman-Hillard
Forrester Research
Frand N. Magid Associates
Gfk MRI
Google and Sterling Brands
GroupM
Hitwise Mobile
InMobi and Mobext
Interpret
Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)
Ipsos Mendelsohn
MAGNAGLOBAL
McKinsey & Company
Millward Brown and Dynamics Logic
Moosylvania
Nielsen
Nielsen and BabyCenter LLC
Online Publisher Association (OPA)
SyncapseTelevision Bureau of Advertising (TVB)
Temkin Group
Terra Networks and comScore
The Diffusion Group
The Media Audit
Tremor Media
Yahoo! and Interpret
Yankee Group
USC Annenberg School Center for the Digital Future
Zokem
Gfk ~1/2
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With mobile: being online has become a persistent, anywhere state
Mobile users check their phones 100X daily
Source: Mobile Posse and Phoenix Marketing International, 2013
Some of you have done that within the
past 10 minutes
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#4. Mobile is now ~20% of Web traffic and search volume
1/5Sources:Web traffic: comScore; StatCounter; Adobe (pageviews), 2013;Paid search click share on Google: The Search Agency, 2013;US search clicks: Kenshoo, 2013
40%mobile
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#5. Mobile commerce is exploding
eMarketer, Sept, 2014
$41.7 B
2013
16%
2017
2.7X
m-commerce sales(and as a % of total ecommerce)
$113.6 B
26%
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Smartphone impact goes way beyond direct sales
Sources:*eMarketer, 2013;**MMA; Deloitte Digital, 2013
$15 B*
$139 - $159 B**
58% influenced by ads
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When consumers were asked in a survey, “What is your primary device for opening marketing emails?”...
©2014 eMarketer Inc.
65% said smartphones
or tabletsSource: Moveable Ink, Q4, 2013
35% said desktop
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0% 15% 30%45%
30%
35%
35%
43%
Content Marketing
Targeting & Personalization
Social Media Engagement
Mobile Optimization
Source: Econsultancy and Adobe, Jan, 2013
#6. Marketers are pumped for mobile
Survey: Most Exciting Digital Opportunities in 2013, according to Companies Worldwide
% of US Marketers Planning to Increase their Mobile Spend
64% ...... Advertiser Perceptions67% ...... Econsultancy69% ...... Nielsen and Vizu70% ...... Ignition One74% ...... IAB and Ovum79% ...... Technorati Media85% ...... ANA
43% of B2B marketers
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#7. The tech titans are all going mobile
49%worldwide
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Net US Google display ad revenues
eMarketer, December 2013
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
2012 2013 2014 2015
$2.18
$1.24
$0.66$0.31
$3.70
$2.88
$2.33
$1.94
DesktopMobile
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% of advertising revenue coming from mobile in Q4, 2013
53% 72% 75%
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#8. Social media is increasingly becoming a mobile activity
69%of social users access social networks on their phonesException
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US digital users spend 1:10 (hr:mins) per day on social media
29%
29%
19%
Source: eMarketer, 2013;*Deloitte, Nov, 2013
#2 activity, after email*
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Ad spending on social networks is also on the rise Social media = 12% of
total digital ad spend
Fueled partly by:
69%39Friday, February 7, 14
67% of US internet users go to any social network
Source: eMarketer, 2013;*Pew Internet & American Life, Dec, 2013
Pinterest*
Instagram*
Tumblr*
0% 30% 60%
6%
15%
17%
22%
60%
CreditDonkey........... 44%Broadcom................ 31%InSites Consulting... 25%
GlobalWebIndex....... 20%comScore................. 19%Pew........................... 18%Allstate Corp............ 16%eMarketer................. 15%Epsilon...................... 8%
Hub Research.......... 23%Reuters.................... 26%
Broadcom................ 20%Pew......................22%
Hub Research.......... 15%GlobaWebIndex....... 14%
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Video ad spending will continue to see double-digit growth
27%of digitaldisplay $s
70% of senior ad-buying execs plan to move some of their TV dollars to digital
––IAB, 2013
= 1/5 of digital video ad spend
???
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For each year (2014 - 2017), net additional TV $s will exceed net additional digital video $s
$68.5
$5.8TV Digital Video
$2.2
$1.64
In 2014...
6%
11%
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1. Improvements in mobile measurement––including ability to integrate mobile and assign attribution
2. Advancement of Geo-targeting capabilities
3. Growth in Native Advertising movement––which is expanding rapidly in mobile, e.g., Facebook, Twitter, BuzzFeed, etc
4. Programmatic buying is moving fast towards mobile
Mobile
“Exchanges, Trading Desks and bidding for audiences recognizes that marketers want to reach audiences, rather than underwrite space.”
––Rishad Tobaccowala, Chairman of DigitasLBi and Razorfish
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Look for programmatic buying to rapidly spread through mobile, social and video
85% of advertisers*
72% of publishers**
Sources: eMarketer, 2014;*IAB and Winterberry Group, 2013; **IAB; OPA, 2013
$0
$2.3
$4.5
$6.8
$9.0
$1.92$3.39
$4.86
$6.64
$8.72
20122013
20142015
2016
% Growth
eMarketer........ 43%
JMP....................... 50%IDC....................... 49%
JP Morgan............ 49%
US Digital Real-Time Bidding Display Ad Spending (in billions)
22%of display
spend
28%of display
spend
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Final advice.
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Admit if you have a problem.
43%“Poorly
Integrated”
46%“Improving”
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Mobile is the least integrated
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Get on top of the data
Harvest cross-screen identities by tapping into the streams of data emanating from mobile, social and video activities
Think of it as an antidote to fragmentation!
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
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By ensuring consistent messaging and offer availability across every channel, you can provide consumers with multiple options in terms of their entry point into the purchase process.
Fight multi-tasking behavior with multi-channel marketing
©2013 eMarketer Inc.
Smart use of data––across platforms––will be the only way to keep up with
rising consumer expectations.
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“Thank You”
Geoffrey RamseyChairman, Co-Foundergeoff@emarketer.com @geofframsey
#iMediaSummit
50Friday, February 7, 14
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