housing and labor market trends: nevada · asking rent and vacancy rate in reno . quarterly ....

HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: NEVADA

Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

June 2013

National Trends

7% 11%

16%

8%

15%

8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

12%

10%

15%

9%

10%

8% 15% 13%

3% 7%

22% 19%

8%

19% 7%

12% 6%

5%

13% 8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Short Sale

Move-In Ready REO

Damaged REO

Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions—April 2013 3 Month Moving Average

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al T

rans

actio

ns

Composition of distressed sales by geography

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013

Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013

18% 33% 29%

50% 19%

48%

35%

37% 63%

18%

35%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

DamagedREO

Move-In ReadyREO

Short Sale Non-Distressed

Current Homeowner First-Time Homebuyer Investor

Perc

ent

of P

rope

rty

Type

Who Is Buying Properties?─April 2013 3 Month Moving Average

Financing for home purchases

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013

26%

11%

76% 18% 47%

2%

22%

14%

6%

5% 7%

29% 21%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors

All Other Financing

VA

Fannie/Freddie

FHA

Cash

Perc

ent

of B

uyer

-Sid

e Tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Financing for Homebuyers─April 2013 3 Month Moving Average

Nevada Trends

Unemployment rate in Nevada coming down, but still higher than U.S.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0

4

8

12

16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Recession

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

United States

Nevada

Nevada house prices trending up

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

90

130

170

210

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000 = 100, quarterly)

United States

Nevada

Las Vegas and Reno prices trending up

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000 = 100, quarterly)

Las Vegas

Reno

Carson City

Mortgage delinquencies and number of loans in foreclosure remain stable

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Num

ber o

f Mor

tgag

es

Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due

Nevada’s consumer debt delinquency rate is falling, but still well above national average

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate

U.S.

Nevada

Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse. Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel

Rents continue to rise as vacancies fall in Las Vegas

0%

6%

12%

18%

$760

$800

$840

$880

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Vacancy Rate A

skin

g Re

nt

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Las Vegas Quarterly

Asking Rent Vacancy Rate

Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.

Reno rents increase as vacancy rate continues to decline

0%

4%

8%

12%

$825

$850

$875

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Vacancy Rate A

skin

g Re

nt

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Reno Quarterly

Asking Rent Vacancy Rate

Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.

Maps

Nevada Data Maps

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2013

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Nevada Data Maps

Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2013

Las Vegas Data Maps

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2013

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Las Vegas Data Maps

Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2013

Reno Data Maps

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2013

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2013

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Reno Data Maps

Conclusions

For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website

Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies

All publications, presentations available on our website

Conference materials also posted shortly after events

http://www.frbsf.org/community/