housing trends for an aging population...housing rockmart athens/clarke monroe millen evans county...

HOUSING TRENDS FOR AN AGING POPULATION - 2016

Georgia Initiative for Community Housing

Dublin, GA

February 24, 2016

The American Association of Retirement Communities

The American Association of Retirement Communities is a not-for-profit professional association established in 1994 to support the efforts of states and municipalities, as well as community developers and for-profit businesses, who market to retirees. A recognized thought-leader and center of research, the AARC provides unparalleled networking opportunities and innovative ideas from the people and organizations driving success and change in the retiree attraction industry.

Trends for Today’s Marketplace

• Age In Place

• Multigenerational Housing

• Relocation and Migration

• Retiree Attraction

ESTIMATED TOTAL POPULATION

BY AGE Rockmart Athens/Clarke Monroe Millen

Evans County

Age 0 to 4 3.89% 6.04% 7.65% 5.61% 7.65%

Age 5 to 9 4.42% 4.87% 5.51% 13.06% 7.65%

Age 10 to 14 5.69% 4.20% 5.05% 12.86% 6.81%

Age 15 to 17 4.56% 2.54% 5.66% 3.51% 3.79%

Age 18 to 20 2.90% 15.53% 4.43% 5.09% 3.85%

Age 21 to 24 6.36% 14.91% 7.14% 1.97% 5.94%

Age 25 to 34 9.89% 16.67% 14.50% 12.54% 13.05%

Age 35 to 44 17.49% 10.21% 11.57% 6.51% 14.50%

Age 45 to 54 15.91% 8.69% 12.71% 12.06% 12.50%

Age 55 to 59 7.82% 4.22% 7.44% 6.51% 5.62%

Age 60 to 64 6.41% 3.48% 3.57% 4.00% 5.03%

Age 65 to 74 6.60% 4.75% 8.10% 9.22% 7.87%

Age 75 to 84 5.33% 2.74% 5.12% 4.19% 4.45%

Age 85 and over 2.76% 1.15% 1.57% 2.87% 1.29%

Population Over Age 55

• Rockmart – 28.92%

• Athens/Clarke County – 19.34%

• Monroe – 25.80%

• Millen – 26.79%

• Evans County – 24.26%

Still Americans Choice of Best Long Term Investment

Housing Rockmart Athens/Clarke Monroe Millen Evans County

Median Home Age 48 28 28 47 30

Median Home Cost $100,000 $161,600 $57,000 $60,200 $89,400

Home Appr. Last 12 months 0.90% 5.70% 15.30% 1.00% 1.00%

Home Appr. Last 5 yrs. -16.80% -12.30% -5.10% -17.40% -17.20%

Home Appr. Last 10 yrs. 3.50% 2.10% -17.70% 3.40% 3.20%

Property Tax Rate $9.33 $10.65 $10.63 $8.77 $8.66

Homes Owned 53.08% 36.29% 34.82% 48.58% 56.02%

Housing Vacant 17.99% 19.78% 15.65% 30.57% 11.43%

Homes Rented 28.93% 43.93% 49.53% 20.85% 32.55%

AVERAGE RENT FOR HOME OR

APARTMENT

Studio Apartment $493 $544 $636 $491 $513

1 Bedroom Home or Apartment $496 $595 $696 $495 $516

2 Bedroom Home or Apartment $671 $728 $824 $636 $636

3 Bedroom Home or Apartment $871 $986 $1,092 $897 $801

4 Bedroom Home or Apartment $981 $1,109 $1,327 $985 $850

VACANT HOUSING

Vacant For Rent 7.64% 9.15% 4.07% 9.01% 2.26%

Vacant Rented 0.51% 0.68% 1.26% 0.00% 0.00%

Vacant For Sale 1.56% 1.85% 2.06% 4.04% 0.39%

Vacant Sold 0.00% 0.24% 0.84% 0.00% 0.00%

Vacant Vacation 3.27% 2.83% 1.42% 4.26% 3.20%

Vacant Other 5.01% 5.04% 6.01% 13.26% 5.59%

HOUSING UNITS BY YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT Rockmart Athens/Clarke Monroe Millen Evans County

2010 and newer 0.00% 0.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2000 to 2009 15.55% 18.58% 18.95% 0.00% 13.86%

1990 to 1999 5.66% 19.42% 16.77% 6.03% 20.48%

1980 to 1989 8.97% 18.94% 22.76% 12.13% 20.31%

1970 to 1979 15.55% 18.23% 13.02% 23.55% 9.45%

1960 to 1969 5.66% 19.42% 16.77% 6.03% 20.48%

1950 to 1959 9.57% 6.16% 9.22% 17.23% 9.05%

1940 to 1949 8.79% 3.08% 2.80% 7.02% 5.50%

1939 or Earlier 28.34% 5.08% 7.07% 17.52% 9.07%

PERCENT BUILT BEFORE 1960 46.70% 14.32% 19.09% 41.77% 23.62%

Age in Place

• 85% of respondents earning less than $20,000 a year and 76% earning more than $50,000 agree with the statement “I would like to stay in my current residence as long as possible”.

• 36% of the nations housing stock owned by people age 50 and over was built before 1960.

• Three segments of need: Without urgent needs, Progressive Condition-Based need and Traumatic need.

• 51% indicate their home can meet their needs “very well” as they age, 37% said their home is able to meet their needs only “somewhat well” and 12% said their home is able to meet their needs “not well” or “not well at all”.

Age in Place Design- The Basics

• No-step entry: You should have at least one step-free entrance (either at the front, back, or side of the house) so everyone, including wheelchair users, can enter the home easily and safely.

• Wide doorways and hallways: A doorway that is at least 36 inches wide is great when you’re bringing home a new mattress or couch, but it’s even better when someone you care for, or a regularly visiting friend or family member, is in a wheelchair. Also, hallways that are 42 inches wide are good for multigenerational family members with varying “mobilities.”

• One-floor living: Access to essential rooms without the use of stairs makes life more convenient and safe for residents ages 0 to 100.

• Easily accessible controls and switches: A person in a wheelchair can reach light switches that are 42-48 inches above the floor. Thermostats should be placed no higher than 48 inches off the floor, and electrical outlets 18-24 inches off the floor. Keep these measurements in mind when modifying your home.

• Easy-to-use handles: Consider replacing twist/turn doorknobs and faucets with lever-style handles for (painless) ease of use.

Multigenerational Housing

• In 2012 the number of people living in 21 million multigenerational households reached 57 million or 18.1 % of the population, double the number from 1980. In 1940, 24.7% of the population resided in a multigenerational home.

• Caring for aging parents, post recession economics (24%) and adult children moving home (23%) are primary drivers.

• The In-Law suite (typically 500 – 600 SF) is still the most popular option for privacy and independence.

Multigenerational Housing

• Lennar Homes has built over 3,000 of their “NextGen” homes in 13 states since 2011 (Purchase price $180,000 to over $1,000,000). 55% of their buyers do so to accommodate aging parents, only 7% are for adult children. Toll Brothers offers optional suites for multigenerational households.

• 13% of all purchases in 2014 were by a multigenerational household. National Association of Realtors

• Younger Boomers represent the largest share of buyers (21%) with 37% being motivated by adult children moving home.

FAMILY Rockmart Athens/Clarke Monroe Millen Evans County

Households 1,783 40,919 5,240 979 4,122

Family Households 1,108 20,795 3,291 690 2,662

Non Family Households 675 20,124 1,949 289 1,460

Household Size 2.32 2.61 2.51 3.03 2.52

Married Population 52.64% 32.31% 42.39% 42.51% 47.40%

Single Population 47.36% 67.70% 57.61% 57.49% 52.60%

Now Married 48.37% 30.53% 37.05% 35.69% 43.77%

Married but Separated 4.27% 1.78% 5.35% 6.83% 3.63%

Never Married 23.32% 56.18% 36.55% 31.03% 30.77%

Widowed 5.80% 3.96% 9.41% 8.99% 8.07%

Divorced 18.24% 7.56% 11.65% 17.47% 13.76%

Married, w/children 25.36% 28.08% 23.76% 21.74% 29.49%

Married, no children 45.13% 38.55% 32.60% 28.84% 34.00%

Single, w/children 19.22% 21.35% 26.98% 37.54% 25.13%

Single, no children 10.29% 12.02% 16.65% 11.88% 11.34%

Major homebuilder firms are aggressively developing shelter product with

qualities appealing to the mature market. Think: EarthCraft, Universal Design,

New Urban, small-palaces, multi-generational, maintainence-free high-

performance homes loaded with digital communication gear in walkable

locations. They come with social/cultural systems imbedded, similar to the

dozens of clubs immediately available to Sun City residents.

The Pulte Del Webb, Kolter and K. Hovnanian brands are growing dramatically

and continue to dominate the active adult, age-qualified sector.

New iterations of the traditional CCRC formula will emerge with more rental

offerings unencumbered from the life-care covenants.

Trends in Age Targeted Housing

Relocation and In-migration

Who are They And Why Would They Want To Move Here?

Reasons For Moving

Total

Generation Gender

Millennials (19-36)

Gen X (37-51)

Baby Boomers (52-70)

Matures (70+)

Men Women

% % % % % % %

To live in an area with better climate/weather 52 54 51 55 39 52 52

Job opportunity 41 68 52 20 2 42 40

Proximity to family 36 36 35 35 36 31 40

For health reasons 25 19 25 30 23 23 26

Proximity to friends 18 26 16 15 13 20 17

Proximity to significant other 16 24 19 10 4 15 16

Educational opportunity 14 31 13 3 * 14 14

To live in an area where my lifestyle is more accepted 13 24 10 7 6 14 12

To live in an area where recreational marijuana is legal 11 20 10 7 1 14 8

To live in an area where my political views are more accepted 11 13 10 11 8 13 9

To live in an area where my religious views are more accepted 7 9 7 7 4 8 7

Another reason 14 14 16 15 7 16 12

I would not consider moving to another state for any reason 15 7 11 19 35 13 17

adults

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.

DELI V ER I N G M AR K ET I N G, R ESEAR CH AN D LEAD GEN ER A T I ON SERV I CES SI N CE 1986

19

Maslow’s Ageless Hierarchy of Needs

Self-Actualization - Peace

Realize Full Self-Potential & Self-Fulfillment

Self-Esteem

Love & Belongingness

Safety Expectations

Psychological Stability

Where Are they Migrating?

20-29%

10-19%

5-10%

<5%

% Interested in State

Plan to move to another part of the country 57%

Current and Preferred Community Type Boomers versus All Adults

Boomers Current Preferred All Adults Current Preferred

Rural 19 30 15 24

Small Town 28 29 32 26

Suburbs 20 21 21 17

Medium City 16 13 17 16

Big City 14 9 14 12

America in 2013 – Urban Land Institute

The Main Street Four Point Approach A New Perspective

• “Organization, promotion, design and economic restructuring are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure the health of downtowns, especially small city downtowns.” Michael A. Burayidi Ph. D.

• The most resilient downtowns have incorporated the following revitalization strategies:

#1 - Capitalize on the retirement preferences of Baby Boomers that favor downtown living.

Downtown Idea Exchange

"Ruppies" or “Retired Urban People"

• “Ruppies “- The trend of retirees relocating to downtown areas across the country.

• Term coined by Kyle Ezell in his book Retire Downtown which outlines the benefits of this urban lifestyle for seniors.

• They are choosing housing options within walking distance to coffee shops, public transportation, retail stores, parks, restaurants and more.

• This dynamic group of aging adults is attracted to bustling regions, as age tends to be inconsequential in downtown areas. For Ruppies, finding the right location -- as opposed to plastic surgery or pills is the key to staying young, healthy and active. They are attracted to the refinement of living a cosmopolitan lifestyle.

Kleber and Associates - Ruppies Whitepaper

Conflict or Commonality?

Top Amenities for New Home Buyers By Generation

Boomers Gen X Gen Y (Millennials) 1. Grocery Store Nearby Grocery Store Nearby Grocery Store Nearby 2. Restaurants Close By Restaurants Close By Restaurants Close By 3. Walking Trails Walking Trails Fitness Center

4. Fitness Center Fitness Center Walking Trails

Also in the Top 10 for All:

Village Square Shopping Public Wi-Fi Access

Recreation Center

Consumer Insights -20,000 New Home Buyers

The Baby Boomers

• 76.4 Million - Born between 1946 and 1964

• The youngest Boomers turn 52 this year (2016), the oldest turn 70.

• 17% of Baby Boomers now report being retired – up from 10% in 2010.

The Opportunity By the Numbers:

• Over 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day – and that figure will INCREASE (to over 12,000 a day) through 2020.

• Baby Boomers – many of whom delayed retirement - are now looking for a place to enjoy.

• 71.4 million people will be age 65 or older in 2029 (about 20 percent of the U.S. population) up from almost 14 percent in 2012,.

PEW RESEARCH

Leading-Edge Boomers who wish to and can move cite decision making factors:

• Finding a smaller or larger home;

• Being near family and friends;

• Enjoying better weather;

• Finding a more urban location, whether downtown or in a suburban town center;

• Finding a place easier to care for;

• Meeting the need to live

more frugally; • Beginning a new career in a

new location; • Returning to areas where

they grew up; and • Finding a place with better

health care or public transportation.

Retiree Attraction

10/2/2015 7:22:00 AM

USC Tourism Expert to discuss attracting retirees to boost local economy at Chamber Morning Blend Program

The Greenwood Chamber and the Burton Center Foundation will host Dr. Simon Hudson of the University of South Carolina (USC) at the Thursday, October 8th Morning Blend program. His presentation will offer business professionals and citizens an opportunity to learn the reasons why attracting retirees and pre-retirees to rural South Carolina is so vital to our economy. As the Director and Endowed Chair for the SmartState Center of Economic Excellence in Tourism and Economic Development at USC, his center is sponsoring a research project supported by the Economic Development Administration to develop strategies to promote retirement friendly communities and attract retirees to rural South Carolina.

Why Not Georgia?

The Economic Impact of the Average Retired Couple Moving to your Community:

• They bring an average retirement income of over $50,000

• Equals 3.7 new factory jobs • Average economic impact of $71,600 • Average assets of over $250,000

Economic Impact of Retirees in Georgia

• In-migrating retirees have a $941 million dollar economic impact in Georgia annually.

• In-migrating retirees create 8,574 new jobs in Georgia annually (1 new job for every 1.8 retirees).

• The average net worth of Georgia retiree households in 2011 was $931,465 or $503,495 per capita.

• Annual income of an average year’s (15,800) retiree

in-migrants - $365 million dollars.

Golden Rules 2013 - Selig Center for Economic Growth,

Terry College of Business, University of Georgia

The Baby Boomers Buying Power

• Boomers control 70% of the wealth in the U.S. - Estimated annual spending power – over $2 Trillion Dollars

• If Boomers were a country, they would be the 11th wealthiest nation in the world

• Boomers purchase 7 cars on average after the age of 50 • Boomers purchase 80% of all luxury travel • 80% of Boomers own their homes • Boomers buy for 4 generations – their grandchildren, their

children, themselves, and their parents • Boomer women make 80% of the household purchase

decisions • Boomers spend 15 hours per week online and spend 3 times

as much online than other demographics (travel, concerts, gifts)

Boomer Psychographics

• Boomers give back. 20% of the 58 million employed Boomers say they will volunteer part time after they retire.

• Boomers want meaning. Nearly 60% of Boomers who intend to work after retirement say they want a job that gives them a greater sense of purpose.

• Most Boomers plan to work past the traditional retirement age, not just because they need the money or health insurance but because they enjoy being challenged and engaged (One third of Sun City residents are on a payroll).

• 26% of the 74 million living Boomers “say” they want to relocate at retirement (half across state lines).

• Only about 22% will seek “age-qualified” communities.

Leading Edge Boomers

• 40 Million born between 1946 and 1956 (now 60 – 70 years old)

• Studies of Leading-Edge Boomers by the AARP indicate that around 70 percent of boomers say they intend to work past traditional retirement age.

The Average Social Security Check is $1230 a Month or $14,760 a Year

Age and Entrepreneurship

• Last year businesses started by those ages 55 to 64 accounted for nearly one-quarter of all new businesses started.

• That share has risen from 14 percent in 1996, according to the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity, which captures business owners in their first month of significant business activity.

• In the context of America's aging population, an increasing share of entrepreneurship among this population is perhaps not surprising.

• What might be more startling to many observers is that Americans in the 55-64 age group start new businesses at a higher rate than those in their twenties and thirties.

• This has been true, by the way, in every single year from 1996 to 2013. • A 2012 Kauffman Foundation and LegalZoom survey of 1,400 business owners who

incorporated their business through LegalZoom in 2012 found two-thirds of respondents over age 60 had previously started a company and ten percent of these entrepreneurs had started 5 prior companies.

U.S. Senate Special Committee on Aging & the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship

AARP, SBA and State Government Provide

Resources for Encore Entrepreneurs

Florida’s 60-74 Year Old Population Growth 2013-2028

In-Migrating Retirees in Georgia

• 17% of in-migrating retirees move to Georgia from

abroad.

• Over 20% of Georgia’s in-migrating retirees move from Florida.

• One in seven in-migrant retirees was born in Georgia.

Golden Rules 2013 - Selig Center for Economic Growth, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia

Georgia Rates a “Top 5” Among Tax Friendly States for Retirees

Natural Synergy Between Tourism and Retiree Attraction

• Retirees visit an area several times before selecting one, therefore retiree attraction boosts local tourism. They spend an average of $203/night.

• Pre-retirees seeking a destination community for their retirement generate over 2,000 room nights in Greene County, GA

• Pre-retirees “shopping” The Landings directly generate nearly 1,000 room nights a year – which brought about a local retirement co-op

“Turning 5 Days Into Forever” How Retiree Attraction is Tourism

• Rebecca McWilliam

• Director of Tourism for Dublin/Laurens County, GA

• AARC 2015 Conference Presentation

• The-aarc.org

The American Association of Retirement Communities 2016 Conference

November 9 – 11,– Asheville, North Carolina

Town Slogan:“Retire Like A Vanderbilt”

Thank You!