igees irish government economic and evaluation...

IGEES – Irish Government Economic and

Evaluation Service

Jasmina Behan/Chris Boyle

Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service

Department of Public Expenditure and Reform

25 Sept 2018

Total Government Expenditure

72.5 bn

Policy space

3

‘Laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made’ Otto von Bismarck

Gut feeling, ideology, generally accepted belief

Policies are experiments

Monitoring, evaluation, correction, termination

Understanding the problem (setting rationale) half the battle (unintended consequences)

Every euro spent on poor schemes is a euro less for Government to provide other needed services

4

Policies

Public policy

IGEES Medium Term Strategy 2016-2019

Strategic goal:

Contribute to better design and targeting of Government policy through high quality analysis and evaluation

Strategy 1:

Output

Papers

Research fund

Spending Review

Budget

SR Conference

Annual Conference

Strategic Policy Discussions

Other (conferences, website etc.)

Strategy 2:

Dissemination

Strategy 3: Recruitment

Recruitment: 135

Departments: 17

AP promotion: 21

Strategy 4:

Training

Mobility

L&D Framework

Induction

CBA, CIE, R etc.

5

Communication: IGEES HIVE, IGEES End Year Event, IGEES Newsletter

Governance: IAG, EAG, POG

IGEES

Evidence

based decisions

Knowledge

(Information with insight)

Information

(Data in context)

Data

Key principles and approaches

doing the right thing – spending for right objectives

doing it right – spending efficiently

Are we doing right things and are we doing them right?

Exchequer expenditure

on enterprise supports

amounts to over 1bn

euro – how effective are

these supports in

ensuring resilience of

Irish enterprises in the

face of Brexit?

In 2017, the Exchequer

is spending over 600m

euro on 4 housing

schemes (HAP, RAS,

SHCEP and RS) – how

efficient and effective

are these schemes in

alleviating the housing

crisis?

How effective is the

Irish higher education

system in meeting the

skill needs of the Irish

economy?

Ireland is ranked one

of the highest in terms

of pharmaceutical

spend (the price the

State pays

manufacturers for

medicines) per capita

– why is this the case

and how sustainable

is this expenditure?

Can behavioural

economics help us to

achieve better tax

compliance and

increase tax revenue?

Housing Assistance Payment (HAP), Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS), Social Housing Current Expenditure Programme (SHCEP) and Rent Supplement

IGEES and DPER Spending Review 2018

DPER Central

Expenditure

DPER

Vote

Vote

Vote

Vote

Vote

Department

Department

DepartmentDepartment

Department

Department

Department

9

Spending Review 2018

Efficiency and Digitalisation within the Office of the Revenue Commissioners

Management of Exchequer Pay Bill

HSE Staff Trend Analysis, 2014-2017

Policing Civilianisation in Ireland: Lessons from International Practice

Review of Overtime Expenditure in An Garda Síochána

Pay Expenditure Drivers at Primary and Second Level

Understanding the funding needs of the third level sector

An Analysis of Older People Services Spend and Activity, 2014-2017

Pension Bill Projections for the Public Service: Cashflow Analysis

Review of Criminal Legal Aid (DJE)

Supports for Persons on Low Income

Public Employment Services – Mapping Activation

An Analysis of Replacement Rates

Analysis of IDA Ireland Expenditure

Analysis of Enterprise Supports and the Labour Market

An Assessment of Direct Supports for Start-ups and Entrepreneurship (DBEI)

Sports Capital Programme (DTTaS)

Analysis of PSO Expenditure on Public Transport

Assessing the Split Between Current and Capital Expenditure on Social Housing Delivery

Analysis of OPW Spending on State Rents

Subsidised Ferry Services to the Offshore Islands (DCHG)

Review of Recent Evaluations by DTTaS (DTTaS)

Implementation of recommendations made as part of the VFM and Policy Review undertaken in regard to the Arts Council (DCHG)

Comparative Levels and Efficiency of Public Spending

Analysis of Hospital Inputs and Outputs, 2014-2017

Nursing and Midwifery Expenditure

Trends in Public Expenditure

Disability Allowance Spending Review

Chris Boyle

Social Protection Vote

Summary

Since 2012, there have been significant increases in expenditure on Disability Allowance.

Between 2012-2016, expenditure increased by €270m, an average of €68m per annum.

Concern within DPER regarding the increase in expenditure and the nature of that increase.

As part of the 2017 Spending Review, a paper was published that examined:

Historical and recent expenditure and recipient trends

Drivers of recent recipient drivers

International best practice regarding reforms of disability supports

The range of employment and employability supports for people with disabilities.

Recent Trends

Source: DEASP Admin Data

1,088

1,358

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Scheme Expenditure

Disaggregation of cost drivers

958

1,173

459

367

405

693

94 112

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

€m

Growth in Expenditure Rate Changes Recipient Numbers Supplementary Payments for Qualified Dependents

Source: DEASP Admin Data

Drivers of recipient numbers

The analysis found that the drivers of increased recipient numbers were:

Demographic Pressures

Increased population & ageing population

Movement from the Live Register

Domiciliary Care Allowance

Rule Changes to Illness Benefit

Analysis of inflows (age)

Source: DEASP Admin Data

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

16 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 66

Num

ber

of

recip

ients

Age Ranges

Age Profile of Inflows

2016-2017 2017-2018

Data

Data

Administrative data needs to be of the highest quality to ensure government’s ability to make informed policy decisions.

Databases such as the Jobseeker’s Longitudinal Database are excellent resources in this respect.

We found that data gaps hindered our ability to conclude this report as we couldn’t attribute exact rises in recipient number to certain drivers.

Ability to see trend but not quantum.

Improvements

In DEASP’s case, the digitalisation of their databases have been a great improvement in this respect.

All new recipients since May 2017 have been assigned as ICD-10 codes which standardises diagnoses.

On-going legacy issues in relation to long-term recipients and lack of data on them.

Conclusions & Recommendations

There are gaps in data on the stock of DA recipients

Recommendations in the Comprehensive Employment Strategy for People with Disabilities should be implemented

Implement further recommendations in the Making Work Pay report

A fundamental analysis of the objectives and underpinning legislation of DA is necessary in light of the change in the profile of inflows