implications of the global and regional changes for argentina's foreign relations
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This article was downloaded by [FU Berlin]On 05 November 2014 At 0237Publisher RoutledgeInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number 1072954 Registeredoffice Mortimer House 37-41 Mortimer Street London W1T 3JH UK
Journal of Iberian and Latin AmericanResearchPublication details including instructions for authors andsubscription informationhttpwwwtandfonlinecomloirjil20
Implications of the Global and RegionalChanges for Argentinas ForeignRelationsRoberto Russell amp Juan Gabriel Tokatliana
a Universidad Torcuato Di Tella ArgentinaPublished online 07 Jan 2014
To cite this article Roberto Russell amp Juan Gabriel Tokatlian (2013) Implications of the Global andRegional Changes for Argentinas Foreign Relations Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research192 251-267 DOI 101080132602192013853356
To link to this article httpdxdoiorg101080132602192013853356
PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 2013 Vol 19 No 2 251ndash267 httpdxdoiorg101080132602192013853356
Implications of the Global and Regional Changes for Argentinarsquos Foreign Relations
Roberto Russell and Juan Gabriel Tokatliandagger
Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Argentina
The article examines the implications of global power redistribution processes for Argentinarsquos foreign relations focusing on the relative loss of centrality of the United States in the Southern Cone the ongoing consolidation of a South American system with Brazil as the main power and the re-emergence of China and its growing interest in South America The period studied extends from the turn of the century until 2012 Argentina responded to these changes in a complex and distinct manner A strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo with the United States was replaced with that of lsquolimited oppositionrsquo Towards Brazil Argentina has pursued a strategy of accommodation seeking to maximize benefits while retaining as much autonomy as possible Finally with China Argentina has practiced a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo which has provided clear dividends but appears to be reaching exhaustion We conclude by putting Argentine relations with these three countries into broader perspective
Keywords Argentina foreign policy Brazil USA China South America coupling limited opposition
Latin America has always been a peripheral region in the world system This condition has
made the area both vulnerable and sensitive to international circumstances and global
changes Therefore external variables have been decisive in the way that Latin American
countries have defined and oriented their insertion into the world throughout their entire
life as independent nations Argentina for example could extract extraordinary benefits
from the complementary links it established with Great Britain over the half-century from
1880 to 1930 When global conditions changed Argentina was forced to develop a new
international strategy and spent many years muddling through by trying to respond and
adapt to a changing and less favourable international context
During the nineties under President Carlos Saul Menem Argentina put into practice a
foreign policy model which we have called lsquopragmatic acquiescencersquo as a response to the
global change that resulted from the Western victory in the Cold War and the advancement
and extension of globalization1 As no other country in the region Argentina decided to
lsquojoin the Northrsquo assuming that the onset of a new era in international and inter-American
relations would be dominated by US hegemony resulting in the expansion of liberal
democracy market reforms and free trade agreements
These examples help us understand the implications of systemic changes in the
international insertion of countries like Argentina2 Each of these changes (1914 1945 and
1989) determined the end of a cycle of foreign policy and unleashed strong internal
debates about the degree of openness of the economy to foreign trade the development of
the domestic market industrialization strategies and the external alliances that should be
Email russellrobertogmailcom daggerEmail jtokatlianutdtedu
q 2013 Association of Iberian and Latin American Studies of Australasia (AILASA)
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ber
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252 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
favoured3 In each cycle the nature and strategic meaning of relations between Argentina
and the United States and the neighbouring countries of South America were the main
topic of discussion At present and in contrast to the Cold War years and the nineties
relations with both counterparts are developing in a context marked by a novel process that
has two visible faces the erosion of the United States hegemony in South America and the
progressive consolidation of a specific South American subsystem mainly in the Southern
Cone characterized by the emergence of Brazil as a sub-regional power In this scheme
the previous dominant power the United States is no longer central to Argentina while the
emerging power Brazil plays an increasingly important role for the countryrsquos
international relations In both cases asymmetry defines bilateral relations4 The greater
asymmetry of power with the United States weighs less in the relationship due to
Washingtonrsquos declining interest attention and influence in Argentina Indeed the most
powerful actor has lost a great part of its structural power to shape the structure of the
relationship As a consequence its relational power has also weakened that is its capacity
to make Argentina follow its desires and interests has waned significantly5 The minor
asymmetry with Brazil has become a structural feature of bilateral relations and exercises
on Argentina a different effect than the classic asymmetry with the United States for two
main reasons it does not have the magnitude of the former and it occurs in a geographical
area ndash South America ndash that has unique characteristics regarding interstate cooperation and
competence The sub-regionhas someof the features that define a subsystemofhierarchy a) a
main power that is expected to help order the system and to use its power judiciously and b) a
set of shared expectations about state behaviour based on updated information about state
preferences and intentions shared experiences as well as a deep history that reduces
the security dilemma6 At the same time it exhibits elements which distinguish it from
the hierarchic model These are mainly the absence of a central dominant nation and a set
of shared expectations of rights and responsibilities for both the major and the secondary
powers
The sub-region also has a long and distinctive history of interstate peace and
pacific resolution of conflicts that has been fundamental for mitigating the security
dilemma The countries that comprise it are showing remarkable levels of cooperation
Moreover the main power (Brazil) has good relations with all its neighbours and
there are no foreseeable state threats coming from them Within this context and
under this particular form of asymmetry Argentina and Brazil have found a way not
always easily to accommodate each other At the same time and as in other moments
of redistribution of global wealth and power relations with new regions or countries
also occupy an important place in Argentinarsquos foreign policy agenda After World
War II and throughout the Cold War the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc were
important partners They offered the country technology and key markets for
Argentine exports that faced increasing access restrictions with traditional clients
particularly in Europe Today the focus is Asia especially China as a new and
essential counterpart for Argentina For its part the European Union continues to lose
ground as a key partner a process that has been intensified in recent years by the
EUrsquos relative loss of power international prestige and influence
The question that guides this paper is the following What are the implications of three
particular and key aspects of the overall process of redistribution of power and diffusion of
wealth for Argentinarsquos foreign relations We refer to the relative loss of centrality of the
United States in the Southern Cone the ongoing consolidation of a South American
system with Brazil as the main power and the re-emergence of China and its growing
interest in South America The period under study extends from the beginning of the
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2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 253
century to the present Argentina has responded to each of these developments in a distinct
manner With the United States it has abandoned the strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo and has
implemented a strategy of lsquolimited oppositionrsquo 7 Towards Brazil Argentina has pursued a
strategy of accommodation seeking to gain benefits but also to retain as much autonomy as
possible Finally vis-a-vis China Argentina has practiced a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo
that has provided clear benefits but which also seems to be exhausting
Relations with the United States Brazil and China are analysed respectively in the two
following sections The focus of our work is placed on the implications of global and
regional changes in the foreign relations of Argentina It is important to note that these
changes do not fall into Gilpinrsquos category of lsquosystemic changesrsquo The changes to which we
refer here belong to a long duration historical cycle that is still in progress and which is
marked by the redistribution of power and wealth from West to East and from North to
South in the context of globalization8 The resultant changes offer unprecedented
opportunities and challenges to most Latin American countries and demand to a large
extent a rethinking of foreign policy its priorities and exercise The paper concludes with
a section in which we try to put into perspective Argentinarsquos relations with the three above
mentioned countries
The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
Argentina-United States relations have experienced significant changes since the
beginning of the twenty-first century The events of 911 in the United States relegated
Argentina to an even less important position from that it had occupied in the George
W Bush administrationrsquos already reduced Latin American agenda Moreover
Washingtonrsquos decision not to support Argentina when the country defaulted on its debt
in late 2001 was read in Buenos Aires and other Latin American capitals as a clear sign
that lsquocouplingrsquo with the United States goes unrewarded and that the time of the
Washington Consensus was coming to an end Most of the Peronists back in government
after the financial crisis found fresh arguments to criticize Washingtonrsquos coldness as well
as the recipes of the IMF and the neoliberal policies pursued by the country in the nineties
From this moment onwards bilateral relations were gradually dominated by two main
trends the loss of US centrality in the foreign policy of Argentina and the growing
indifference of Washington vis-a-vis Buenos Aires
During the first months that followed the crisis Argentina opted for a lsquoselective
rapprochementrsquo with the Unites States rather than merely band wagoning At that time
Washingtonrsquos role was considered central for overcoming the crisis because of its
influence in the multilateral lending institutions Emboldened by the first signs of
economic recovery Eduardo Duhaldersquos transition government (2002 ndash 2003) began to
voice its opposition to some policies of Washington at the end of his short administration
for example to the US military intervention in Iraq The rapid and even startling recovery
from the crisis and the high growth of Argentinarsquos economy in subsequent years
strengthened the idea in Buenos Aires that the country could grow and develop without
Washington and certainly against its economic prescriptions This notion was reinforced
after the March 2005 agreement with private creditors of the debt in default (76 of the
bondholders) and the cancelation in January 2006 of the US$98 billion debt with the IMF
in a single payment using reserves of the Central Bank Thus over a period of around three
years the United States ceased to be seen as an lsquoindispensable nationrsquo for Argentina
The idea that Argentina could do for the most part without strong ties to Washington
had clear ideological components that came from the inner circle of the Nestor Kirchnerrsquos
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ber
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254 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
administration (2003 ndash 2007) However it found its greatest support in the material
conditions offered by a global and regional scenario that opened new and extraordinary
opportunities to the country China became a key trading partner and Brazil behaved as the
closest country to Argentina during and in the years following the crisis Meanwhile the
United States did not devote much time to Argentina let alone the wider South America
This fact was much more than the mere repetition of the United States tendency to put
Latin America in a secondary position in its foreign policy concerns It has to be situated in
the context of the long-term process of U S hegemonic decline in South America
especially in the Southern Cone countries
More specifically the low strategic relevance of Argentina for the United States helps
explain the growing indifference of Washington towards the country This fact is not new
but has intensified during this century Argentina does not have a prominent place in any of
the priority issues on the United Statesrsquo Latin American agenda trade migration drugs
terrorism and public safety and energy A second factor that also explains Washingtonrsquos
estrangement from Buenos Aires is a sequence of bilateral conflictive episodes of high-
voltage in which Argentina played or was seen to play the role of the actor less open to
dialogue and more prone to overacting Vocal criticism on the Argentine side first to the
IMF and later to Washingtonrsquos policies past and present became louder as Argentinarsquos
economy recovered The climax came at the Fourth Summit of the Americas held in Mar
del Plata on November 4 and 5 2005 where the then president of Argentina Nestor
Kirchner firmly opposed lsquoneoliberalismrsquo and the creation of a hemispheric free trade area
(FTAA) and accused the United States of having an lsquoanachronistic viewrsquo of the problems
afflicting developing countries Moreover he called on Bush to have a more responsible
leadership in Latin America by ending his support for policies that had lsquonot only led to
misery and poverty but also the fall of democratically elected governmentsrsquo9 Mar del Plata
marked a turn for the worse in bilateral relations and Washington was left with a bitter taste
that would linger until the end of George W Bushrsquos presidency Moreover while the so
called lsquoArgentine modelrsquo heterodox and lsquoneo-developmentalistrsquo in its economic
orientation did not fit into the category of lsquoLatin American radical populismsrsquo it was
viewed by US officials with suspicion and disgust Although Nestor Kirchner never
subscribed to the tenets of the lsquosocialism of the twenty-first centuryrsquo Washington watched
with dissatisfaction the close links established betweenArgentina and Venezuelarsquos Chavez
After the inauguration of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner to the presidency of
Argentina in December 2007 new conflicts contributed to deepen lsquomutual detachmentrsquo
Barack Obamarsquos arrival in office in January 2008 was considered by Buenos Aires as an
opportunity to open a new dialogue Moreover the financial crisis in the United States
merely reinforced government beliefs and policies on the role of the state in the economy
and on the need to reform the multilateral lending agencies However with its first
domestic and foreign policies the Obama Administration soon showed that the ideological
affinities world views and purposes were less similar to what at first could have been
imagined at the Casa Rosada President Fernandez de Kirchner rapidly moved from initial
lsquoadmirationrsquo to conclude that President Obama lsquohad not fulfilled the expectationsrsquo and that
his Administration lsquoignores the needs of the Southern Conersquo10
Over the years the distancing on global and regional issues became apparent the threat
and the use of force in the Middle East Central Asia and Northern Africa the conception
and practice of the lsquoResponsibility to Protectrsquo the statehood condition of Palestine the level
and scope of protectionism the promotion and enforcement of stronger financial regulations
worldwide the approach vis-a-vis specific countries such as Iran the half-century old
Cuban blockade the debate and reform over crucial aspects of the Inter-American system
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 255
such as the Inter-American Defence Board and the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal
assistance the differences in views and attitudes vis-a-vis a sort of lsquoneo-coupismrsquo
(neogolpismo) in the region such as in Venezuela (2002) Honduras (2009) Ecuador (2010) and Paraguay (2012) and the broadening and militarization of the lsquowar on drugsrsquo However
a simultaneous convergence on important world and continental topics has been evident
acting in favour of nuclear non-proliferation avoiding the presence of transnational
terrorism in the area (for example in the Tri-border zone of Argentina Brazil and
Paraguay) supporting the human rights component of the Inter-American system and
participating in humanitarian missions such as the one in Haiti
In brief by the end of the first year of the second mandate of President Fernandez de
Kirchner and after the re-election of President Obama for a second term the bilateral
relationship remained characterized by little presidential dialogue low shared-
expectations outspoken differences and specific cooperation only on issues of common
interest Key coincidences and several major differences have not been institutionalized in
a general framework by which the mixture of consensus and dissent could be managed On
many occasions first and second-level government officials in Washington and Buenos
Aires overreacted to an incident or underplayed an accord In most cases the perception at
the highest level of each government was one of misunderstanding tiredness and
discomfort
Within this context the fact that Argentina will occupy a non-permanent seat on the
UN Security Council in 2013 ndash 2014 where critical issues will be on the agenda (some of
significance for Buenos Aires including the Malvinas-Falkland question as well as the
lsquovulture fundsrsquo suing Argentina in US courts regarding the 2001 debt default) Requiring
Washington to play a positive role may generate a situation that pushes both countries to
at least devise an improved consultative mechanism in order to handle their relationship
with more maturity and realism
Relations between Argentina and Brazil have been marked by the increase in
asymmetries between the two countries in terms of capabilities as well as in international
projection Since the crisis of 2001 Argentina has undergone a gradual process of
economic and self-esteem recovery whereas Brazil has consolidated its position as an
emerging power both regionally and globally These developments together with the loss
of US centrality in South America and Mexicorsquos growing links and interdependence with
North America have dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape in Latin America
particularly in South America
Three distinct phases can be highlighted in the Argentine-Brazilian relationship
since the beginning of the twenty-first century11 The first extends from the crisis of
2001 through 2003 and is characterized by the growing importance given to Brazil by
the elites and public opinion in Argentina While other governments were abandoning
Argentina the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Administration expressed solidarity with
the government led by Eduardo Duhalde during the time of crisis arguing that the
International Monetary Fund could not be insensitive to the serious situation which
afflicted Argentina and said that Brazil continued to trust in its main Mercosur
trading partner Later with Lula already in the Planalto the idea of Brazil as
lsquoalternative development modelrsquo to the one implemented in the 1990s and as the
lsquomain cardrsquo of Argentinarsquos international insertion became dominant in Buenos Aires
Nestor Kirchner took office in May 2003 stating Brazilrsquos importance for Argentina
and emphasized the need to give more weight and density to a common strategic
project However this positive vision of the bilateral relationship was expressed at the
beginning of a phase in which Argentina was leaving behind the crisis With gradual
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256 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
recovery came the revival in Argentina of an ambiguity vis-a-vis Brazil Although
Brazil was seen as a key player and partner it also raised suspicions and doubts
throughout the whole Argentine political spectrum Its status as an emerging power
produced concerns For the Right in Argentina the Lula presidency gave reasons to
refloat the perception of Brazil as an lsquoincorrigiblersquo country The different assessments of
the strategic condition of South America vis-a-vis Latin America also reappeared and with it
fears of a possible Brazilian hegemony in South America The government of Fernando de la
Rua (1999ndash2001) had had a preventive and defensive attitude about the political idea of South
America proposed by Brazil ndash a political and economic geographic area with its own
peculiarities and different from the lsquoLatin America of the Northrsquo The government of Nestor
Kirchner also adopted a reluctant position An eloquent example of this attitudewas President
Kirchnerrsquos decision not to attend the gestation of the South American Community of Nations
meeting (prior to its transformation into the Union of SouthAmericanNations) in 2004 on the
grounds that it was an instrument created by Brazil to project and ensure its own power in
the region
References to Brazil arose in the context of a stagnating Mercosur Repeated promises
to give the bloc a new birth ndash the so called lsquorelanzamientorsquo ndash could not hide that in terms
of its economic significance Mercosur exhibited clear signs of exhaustion Moreover
similar views in both capitals about the lsquodevelopment modelrsquo did not help to give more
oxygen to the integration process The convergence between Kirchner and Lula on the
need to restore the lsquoindustrialistrsquo vision of integration as opposed to the lsquocommercialrsquo
approach of the nineties gave the impression that the two countries were ready to give its
ties a new strategic perspective However the bilateral agenda of lsquoproductiversquo integration
and Brasiliarsquos acceptance of the importance of the lsquore-industrializationrsquo of Argentina were
interpreted in Buenos Aires as a right to establish protectionist measures for Brazilian
exports that threatened the national industry and even more to ignore certain rules This
propensity for defensive policies not only emphasized the lsquofatiguersquo of Mercosur but also
contributed to the low willingness on the part of Brasilia to accept limits to the
autonomous management of its foreign policy Integration never ceased to be a goal for
Brazil but with time acquired a minor role in the priorities of its foreign policy Its
systematic rejection of a surrender of elements of sovereignty and autonomy to the
Mercosur was one of the determinants of the institutional weakness of the bloc Moreover
as Monica Hirst has put it lsquothe importance of the South American economies as a space for
a larger expansion of the Brazilian companies and the statersquos presence as an investor
(Petrobras) and financier (BNDES) [Brazilian Development Bank] became more
important for Brazilian material and strategic interests that the regional integration
process especially the Mercosurrsquo12 In short ambiguous perceptions coexisted in
Argentina with fluctuating bilateral relations The setting was propitious for the
reappearance of anti-Brazil perceptions in Argentina The pro-Brazilian episodic euphoria
of the years of Duhalde (Brazil as a lsquogreat strategic allyrsquo) turned into doubt and criticism in
the second phase which goes from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2006 Explicitly
and implicitly by both the Right and the Left an ambivalent feeling towards Brazil
unfolded albeit without the pugnacity of the past but nevertheless highlighting the
difficulties of embedding a culture of friendship between the two countries13
As in other debates in Argentina these visions were remnants of perceptions forged in
the seventies and nineties Kirchnerrsquos own ambiguities style and measures in government
did not help to build a more positive image of the role of Brazil for Argentina Several
groups located in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the business world think-tanks and the
media encouraged the counterbalancing of Brazil in lsquoSouth Americarsquo by means of a
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 257
lsquoLatin-Americanrsquo policy in which the role of Mexico was presented as crucial On the
other hand the vision of Chile as a partner for a more balanced South America and as an
economic model also regained strength in a wide spectrum of the Argentine elites covering
the Right to the centre-Left Chilersquos image was contrasted with that of Brazil The first was
seen essentially as lsquopredictablersquo and lsquoreasonablersquo while the second after the triumph of
Lularsquos Workers Party tended to be presented on the opposite side For some closer
relations with Chile would serve to offset the influence of Brazil in the Southern Cone ndash a
Santiago ndash Buenos Aires axis to limit the Brazilian aspiration to lead the area ndash while
others perceived the lsquoChilean wayrsquo as the best manner for taking a safe distance from
Mercosur which was perceived as an obstacle to establishing a flexible dense and fruitful
relationship with the rest of the world Finally the Left identified the relationship with
Venezuela as a balancing factor for restraining the power of Brazil
The third phase of Argentine ndash Brazilian relations started at the end of 2006 and
extends to the present An interesting twist can be observed in the direction of a more
positive perception of Brazil that clearly puts it in a central place for Argentina Two main
factors explain this change The first and most important is the growing international
relevance and regional weight of Brazil This process has led to the formation of a
widespread perception in Argentina that defines Brazil as lsquoinevitablersquo with a predominant
negative and generally pessimistic bias or as a country that is lsquoindispensablersquo in this case
emphasizing the possibility of building a common future and a strong cooperative
relationship The idea of Brazil as a necessary country is widely accepted but has
variously been accepted with resignation disgust and joy alternatively viewed as an
opportunity or severe challenge The lsquosuccessrsquo of Brazil is often contrasted with the
lsquofailuresrsquo of Argentina and generates different feelings such as pain envy nostalgia and
desire for emulation In any case the growth and rise of Brazil has converted it into a
model for almost everyone The second factor is the growing density of bilateral relations
As an example it is interesting to note that Brazil is already the fourth largest foreign
investor in Argentina after the United States Spain and China In 2010 24 of total
exports (42 industrial) and 82 of the cars manufactured in Argentina were directed to
the Brazilian market and 863492 Brazilian tourists visited the country14 At the same
time the expansion of Brazilian companies in Argentinarsquos productive activity and trade
has been impressive in the last decade
The main issue for the future then is how to live and interact with the lsquoinevitablersquo or
lsquoindispensablersquo country This convergence of perceptions regarding the centrality of Brazil
for Argentina only goes so far There is no agreement on the political economic and
strategic interests that should constitute the relationship with Brazil and consequently
about the best ways to put them into practice The transition from an entrenched culture of
rivalry to an incipient culture of friendship has lasted more than a quarter of a century
providing promising dividends for both nations and offering a good platform from which
to renegotiate the growing bilateral ties The world and the region and the national
situation of the two countries especially concerning the distribution of attributes of
economic power are now very different to the 1980s when the two countries took the first
steps to build a positive bilateral relationship The double condition of the Argentine ndash
Brazilian relationship that is its increasingly close and uneven character suggests that
there will be a complex combination of convergence and divergence between the two
nations Argentina and Brazil never were Pakistan and India in terms of antagonism and
sought in the past to jointly become an equivalent to the Franco ndash German axis for the
integration of South America an aspiration that today is unsustainable Circumstances
have changed and the condition of lsquoasymmetric interdependencersquo is recognized and
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] at
02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
258 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
accepted in Argentina although not without the suspicions that characterize the attitudes
of the weaker party in a bilateral relationship In this context the main challenge for
Brasilia and Buenos Aires is to forge a realistic and positive lsquonew dealrsquo that contemplates
with its own specificity the bilateral relationship as well as Mercosur
In the end the above-mentioned three phases show the existence of both a changing
and intricate relationship If the theory of asymmetry is taken into consideration the first
move towards re-negotiating an unbalanced relationship should be initiated to a large
extent by the less powerful party In that sense it is yet unclear what the Argentine elites
(civilian and military economic and intellectual state-based and non-governmental) want
from relations with the continent (including the United States) the Spanish-speaking
region South America and finally Brazil Historically it has been quite difficult for
Argentines to have simultaneous positive relations with Washington and Brasilia In the
last two decades different opinions (sometimes personal more than collective) between
the lsquoLatin-Americanistsrsquo and the lsquoSouth-Americanistsrsquo favouring opposite strategic
options have been vocally expressed Currently several other countries in the area have
been increasing their leverage especially those facing the Pacific This phenomenon does
not go unnoticed by Argentine elites and is another source of domestic debate In this
dynamic and changing regional context Argentina has not been able to clearly establish
the goals and ambitions to guide its foreign policy towards the region and Brazil in
particular The response to this situation should be sought in essence in domestic politics
Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
Argentine ndash Chinese links should be placed in the larger context of China ndashLatin America
relations15 From a Latin American perspective Chinarsquos growing presence in the region
has been seen at least in the first decade of the twenty-first century as a promising trend
Chinarsquos ties with Latin America from the 1950s to the 1970s were marginal focused
primarily on cultural diplomacy driven by ideological motives and based on
revolutionary rhetoric This diplomatic strategy relied on the dividends of destabilization
was accompanied by anti-US slogans and was geared toward strengthening pro-Chinese
(and anti-Soviet) political parties and movements Chinarsquos international behaviour during
that period was that of a revisionist actor who sought to change the rules of the game
through aggressive means
In contrast Beijingrsquos approach to the region since the 1990s has involved an active
economic diplomacy characterized by pragmatism conciliation and stability Chinarsquos key
goal and main challenge has been to deepen its relations with the countries of Latin America
without irritating Washington Diplomatically China has proceeded in a judicious fashion
which explains in part why regional forces did not emerge to veto a policy of prudent and
consistent engagement toward China In addition Chinarsquos external diplomatic model has
been seductive to Latin America especially during the two administrations of George
W Bush in the United States multipolarism as opposed to unipolarism multilateralism as
opposed to unilateralism non-interference as opposed to interventionism soft power as
opposed to hard power pragmatism as opposed to ideologisation collaboration as opposed
to domination and persuasion as opposed to coercion All have been attractive notions in
Latin America Chinarsquos contemporary approach coincides with strong Latin American
traditions and aspirations and has become more captivating by virtue of the mishandling
disregard and thoughtlessness of US foreign policy towards the region
Nothing indicates that Latin America is geared towards accepting a paternalistic
externally-induced security dilemma with China and the region does not feel insecure visshy
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 259
a-vis Beijing despite certain ideologically-driven pressure groups in Washington
Moreover the Sino ndash Latin American ndash US triangular relationship has not engendered
major tensions or unmanageable challenges16 There is also nothing to suggest from a
regional viewpoint that Latin America ndash China ndash United States relations are destined to an
apocalyptic geopolitics approach based on an overblown fear of an alleged Chinese
takeover of the region China is not the Soviet Union post 911 is not a rehearsal of the
Cold War Washington is no longer at the pinnacle of world power and Latin America has
not collapsed after the Western economic and financial crisis began in 2008 There is also
no indication that Chinarsquos intention is to challenge the United States in the Western
Hemisphere In fact the Chinese government has actively sought to convince the United
States and the rest of the world that its intentions are benign thus the self-portrayal of a
peaceful rise
Chinarsquos behaviour in Latin America at the outset of the twenty-first century has been
far from that of a revisionist power On the one hand Beijingrsquos strategy has combined
necessity with opportunity and has been put into practice cautiously and diligently
curtailing the likelihood that the region will develop or adopt a policy aimed at rolling
back Chinarsquos presence On the other hand Latin Americarsquos relationship with Beijing is
more dependent on economic facts than political conceptions As there is no major
ideological concern in most countries about dealing with China the crucial element is the
material effect of Sino ndash Latin American linkages the level of dependency of the region
vis-a-vis China the degree of de-industrialization of the area derived from bilateral trade
and the ecological consequences of Chinese investment in Latin America17
This broader framework is essential to understand the dynamics of Argentinarsquos
relations with China in the larger context of Argentinendash Asian links Over the past two
decades the (re)emergence of China and the ascent of Asia have been a blessing for
Argentina Rising demand and higher prices for commodities have made it possible for
Argentina to elevate and diversify its trade flows with the East Since the 1990s and
despite the discernible differences in economic and foreign policies between Carlos
Menem and the Kirchners Argentina has developed a new pattern of production that has
led notwithstanding the crisis of 2001 to a reorganization of the economic base of the
country As noted by Pablo Gerchunoff lsquoIt is not just about the speed of exports there is
also a significant diversification traditional agriculture new agriculture industry energy
and mining concurred to modify the national economic landscapersquo18 In that context and
according to President Nestor Kirchner it was crucial lsquothrough China to search in Asia the
leverage to re-industrialize Argentinarsquo Economy not politics has been the driving force
to improve and extend Argentine relations with the East19
For the first time in more than seven decades Argentina has met a world that eagerly
requires what it produces The key driver of this demand is located in China but covers a
wide range of countries At present China is Argentinarsquos second largest trading partner
both in terms of the origin of imports and recipient of exports ndash in both dimensions after
Brazil and before the United States (See Table 1) Argentina meanwhile ranks third in the
list of the 15 major suppliers of agricultural products which supplied 90 per cent of
Chinese imports in 2010 United States (244) Brazil (136) and Argentina (73)
Other major suppliers were the European Union (6) Australia (5) and Malaysia (5)
By 2001 Argentine exports to China surpassed the US$1 billion barrier to hit US$1123
billion and imports totalled US$1066 billion Thus there was a small surplus of US$56
million in favour of Argentina By 2010 the commercial exchange was worth US$13795
billion totalling US$6117 billion in Argentine exports and US$7678 billion in Chinese
exports The result was a trade balance of US$1561 billion in Chinarsquos favour20 In the
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ber
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260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
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ber
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262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
Dow
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
Dow
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ded
by [
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
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ded
by [
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
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ber
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- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 2013 Vol 19 No 2 251ndash267 httpdxdoiorg101080132602192013853356
Implications of the Global and Regional Changes for Argentinarsquos Foreign Relations
Roberto Russell and Juan Gabriel Tokatliandagger
Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Argentina
The article examines the implications of global power redistribution processes for Argentinarsquos foreign relations focusing on the relative loss of centrality of the United States in the Southern Cone the ongoing consolidation of a South American system with Brazil as the main power and the re-emergence of China and its growing interest in South America The period studied extends from the turn of the century until 2012 Argentina responded to these changes in a complex and distinct manner A strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo with the United States was replaced with that of lsquolimited oppositionrsquo Towards Brazil Argentina has pursued a strategy of accommodation seeking to maximize benefits while retaining as much autonomy as possible Finally with China Argentina has practiced a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo which has provided clear dividends but appears to be reaching exhaustion We conclude by putting Argentine relations with these three countries into broader perspective
Keywords Argentina foreign policy Brazil USA China South America coupling limited opposition
Latin America has always been a peripheral region in the world system This condition has
made the area both vulnerable and sensitive to international circumstances and global
changes Therefore external variables have been decisive in the way that Latin American
countries have defined and oriented their insertion into the world throughout their entire
life as independent nations Argentina for example could extract extraordinary benefits
from the complementary links it established with Great Britain over the half-century from
1880 to 1930 When global conditions changed Argentina was forced to develop a new
international strategy and spent many years muddling through by trying to respond and
adapt to a changing and less favourable international context
During the nineties under President Carlos Saul Menem Argentina put into practice a
foreign policy model which we have called lsquopragmatic acquiescencersquo as a response to the
global change that resulted from the Western victory in the Cold War and the advancement
and extension of globalization1 As no other country in the region Argentina decided to
lsquojoin the Northrsquo assuming that the onset of a new era in international and inter-American
relations would be dominated by US hegemony resulting in the expansion of liberal
democracy market reforms and free trade agreements
These examples help us understand the implications of systemic changes in the
international insertion of countries like Argentina2 Each of these changes (1914 1945 and
1989) determined the end of a cycle of foreign policy and unleashed strong internal
debates about the degree of openness of the economy to foreign trade the development of
the domestic market industrialization strategies and the external alliances that should be
Email russellrobertogmailcom daggerEmail jtokatlianutdtedu
q 2013 Association of Iberian and Latin American Studies of Australasia (AILASA)
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ber
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252 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
favoured3 In each cycle the nature and strategic meaning of relations between Argentina
and the United States and the neighbouring countries of South America were the main
topic of discussion At present and in contrast to the Cold War years and the nineties
relations with both counterparts are developing in a context marked by a novel process that
has two visible faces the erosion of the United States hegemony in South America and the
progressive consolidation of a specific South American subsystem mainly in the Southern
Cone characterized by the emergence of Brazil as a sub-regional power In this scheme
the previous dominant power the United States is no longer central to Argentina while the
emerging power Brazil plays an increasingly important role for the countryrsquos
international relations In both cases asymmetry defines bilateral relations4 The greater
asymmetry of power with the United States weighs less in the relationship due to
Washingtonrsquos declining interest attention and influence in Argentina Indeed the most
powerful actor has lost a great part of its structural power to shape the structure of the
relationship As a consequence its relational power has also weakened that is its capacity
to make Argentina follow its desires and interests has waned significantly5 The minor
asymmetry with Brazil has become a structural feature of bilateral relations and exercises
on Argentina a different effect than the classic asymmetry with the United States for two
main reasons it does not have the magnitude of the former and it occurs in a geographical
area ndash South America ndash that has unique characteristics regarding interstate cooperation and
competence The sub-regionhas someof the features that define a subsystemofhierarchy a) a
main power that is expected to help order the system and to use its power judiciously and b) a
set of shared expectations about state behaviour based on updated information about state
preferences and intentions shared experiences as well as a deep history that reduces
the security dilemma6 At the same time it exhibits elements which distinguish it from
the hierarchic model These are mainly the absence of a central dominant nation and a set
of shared expectations of rights and responsibilities for both the major and the secondary
powers
The sub-region also has a long and distinctive history of interstate peace and
pacific resolution of conflicts that has been fundamental for mitigating the security
dilemma The countries that comprise it are showing remarkable levels of cooperation
Moreover the main power (Brazil) has good relations with all its neighbours and
there are no foreseeable state threats coming from them Within this context and
under this particular form of asymmetry Argentina and Brazil have found a way not
always easily to accommodate each other At the same time and as in other moments
of redistribution of global wealth and power relations with new regions or countries
also occupy an important place in Argentinarsquos foreign policy agenda After World
War II and throughout the Cold War the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc were
important partners They offered the country technology and key markets for
Argentine exports that faced increasing access restrictions with traditional clients
particularly in Europe Today the focus is Asia especially China as a new and
essential counterpart for Argentina For its part the European Union continues to lose
ground as a key partner a process that has been intensified in recent years by the
EUrsquos relative loss of power international prestige and influence
The question that guides this paper is the following What are the implications of three
particular and key aspects of the overall process of redistribution of power and diffusion of
wealth for Argentinarsquos foreign relations We refer to the relative loss of centrality of the
United States in the Southern Cone the ongoing consolidation of a South American
system with Brazil as the main power and the re-emergence of China and its growing
interest in South America The period under study extends from the beginning of the
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 253
century to the present Argentina has responded to each of these developments in a distinct
manner With the United States it has abandoned the strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo and has
implemented a strategy of lsquolimited oppositionrsquo 7 Towards Brazil Argentina has pursued a
strategy of accommodation seeking to gain benefits but also to retain as much autonomy as
possible Finally vis-a-vis China Argentina has practiced a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo
that has provided clear benefits but which also seems to be exhausting
Relations with the United States Brazil and China are analysed respectively in the two
following sections The focus of our work is placed on the implications of global and
regional changes in the foreign relations of Argentina It is important to note that these
changes do not fall into Gilpinrsquos category of lsquosystemic changesrsquo The changes to which we
refer here belong to a long duration historical cycle that is still in progress and which is
marked by the redistribution of power and wealth from West to East and from North to
South in the context of globalization8 The resultant changes offer unprecedented
opportunities and challenges to most Latin American countries and demand to a large
extent a rethinking of foreign policy its priorities and exercise The paper concludes with
a section in which we try to put into perspective Argentinarsquos relations with the three above
mentioned countries
The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
Argentina-United States relations have experienced significant changes since the
beginning of the twenty-first century The events of 911 in the United States relegated
Argentina to an even less important position from that it had occupied in the George
W Bush administrationrsquos already reduced Latin American agenda Moreover
Washingtonrsquos decision not to support Argentina when the country defaulted on its debt
in late 2001 was read in Buenos Aires and other Latin American capitals as a clear sign
that lsquocouplingrsquo with the United States goes unrewarded and that the time of the
Washington Consensus was coming to an end Most of the Peronists back in government
after the financial crisis found fresh arguments to criticize Washingtonrsquos coldness as well
as the recipes of the IMF and the neoliberal policies pursued by the country in the nineties
From this moment onwards bilateral relations were gradually dominated by two main
trends the loss of US centrality in the foreign policy of Argentina and the growing
indifference of Washington vis-a-vis Buenos Aires
During the first months that followed the crisis Argentina opted for a lsquoselective
rapprochementrsquo with the Unites States rather than merely band wagoning At that time
Washingtonrsquos role was considered central for overcoming the crisis because of its
influence in the multilateral lending institutions Emboldened by the first signs of
economic recovery Eduardo Duhaldersquos transition government (2002 ndash 2003) began to
voice its opposition to some policies of Washington at the end of his short administration
for example to the US military intervention in Iraq The rapid and even startling recovery
from the crisis and the high growth of Argentinarsquos economy in subsequent years
strengthened the idea in Buenos Aires that the country could grow and develop without
Washington and certainly against its economic prescriptions This notion was reinforced
after the March 2005 agreement with private creditors of the debt in default (76 of the
bondholders) and the cancelation in January 2006 of the US$98 billion debt with the IMF
in a single payment using reserves of the Central Bank Thus over a period of around three
years the United States ceased to be seen as an lsquoindispensable nationrsquo for Argentina
The idea that Argentina could do for the most part without strong ties to Washington
had clear ideological components that came from the inner circle of the Nestor Kirchnerrsquos
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254 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
administration (2003 ndash 2007) However it found its greatest support in the material
conditions offered by a global and regional scenario that opened new and extraordinary
opportunities to the country China became a key trading partner and Brazil behaved as the
closest country to Argentina during and in the years following the crisis Meanwhile the
United States did not devote much time to Argentina let alone the wider South America
This fact was much more than the mere repetition of the United States tendency to put
Latin America in a secondary position in its foreign policy concerns It has to be situated in
the context of the long-term process of U S hegemonic decline in South America
especially in the Southern Cone countries
More specifically the low strategic relevance of Argentina for the United States helps
explain the growing indifference of Washington towards the country This fact is not new
but has intensified during this century Argentina does not have a prominent place in any of
the priority issues on the United Statesrsquo Latin American agenda trade migration drugs
terrorism and public safety and energy A second factor that also explains Washingtonrsquos
estrangement from Buenos Aires is a sequence of bilateral conflictive episodes of high-
voltage in which Argentina played or was seen to play the role of the actor less open to
dialogue and more prone to overacting Vocal criticism on the Argentine side first to the
IMF and later to Washingtonrsquos policies past and present became louder as Argentinarsquos
economy recovered The climax came at the Fourth Summit of the Americas held in Mar
del Plata on November 4 and 5 2005 where the then president of Argentina Nestor
Kirchner firmly opposed lsquoneoliberalismrsquo and the creation of a hemispheric free trade area
(FTAA) and accused the United States of having an lsquoanachronistic viewrsquo of the problems
afflicting developing countries Moreover he called on Bush to have a more responsible
leadership in Latin America by ending his support for policies that had lsquonot only led to
misery and poverty but also the fall of democratically elected governmentsrsquo9 Mar del Plata
marked a turn for the worse in bilateral relations and Washington was left with a bitter taste
that would linger until the end of George W Bushrsquos presidency Moreover while the so
called lsquoArgentine modelrsquo heterodox and lsquoneo-developmentalistrsquo in its economic
orientation did not fit into the category of lsquoLatin American radical populismsrsquo it was
viewed by US officials with suspicion and disgust Although Nestor Kirchner never
subscribed to the tenets of the lsquosocialism of the twenty-first centuryrsquo Washington watched
with dissatisfaction the close links established betweenArgentina and Venezuelarsquos Chavez
After the inauguration of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner to the presidency of
Argentina in December 2007 new conflicts contributed to deepen lsquomutual detachmentrsquo
Barack Obamarsquos arrival in office in January 2008 was considered by Buenos Aires as an
opportunity to open a new dialogue Moreover the financial crisis in the United States
merely reinforced government beliefs and policies on the role of the state in the economy
and on the need to reform the multilateral lending agencies However with its first
domestic and foreign policies the Obama Administration soon showed that the ideological
affinities world views and purposes were less similar to what at first could have been
imagined at the Casa Rosada President Fernandez de Kirchner rapidly moved from initial
lsquoadmirationrsquo to conclude that President Obama lsquohad not fulfilled the expectationsrsquo and that
his Administration lsquoignores the needs of the Southern Conersquo10
Over the years the distancing on global and regional issues became apparent the threat
and the use of force in the Middle East Central Asia and Northern Africa the conception
and practice of the lsquoResponsibility to Protectrsquo the statehood condition of Palestine the level
and scope of protectionism the promotion and enforcement of stronger financial regulations
worldwide the approach vis-a-vis specific countries such as Iran the half-century old
Cuban blockade the debate and reform over crucial aspects of the Inter-American system
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ber
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 255
such as the Inter-American Defence Board and the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal
assistance the differences in views and attitudes vis-a-vis a sort of lsquoneo-coupismrsquo
(neogolpismo) in the region such as in Venezuela (2002) Honduras (2009) Ecuador (2010) and Paraguay (2012) and the broadening and militarization of the lsquowar on drugsrsquo However
a simultaneous convergence on important world and continental topics has been evident
acting in favour of nuclear non-proliferation avoiding the presence of transnational
terrorism in the area (for example in the Tri-border zone of Argentina Brazil and
Paraguay) supporting the human rights component of the Inter-American system and
participating in humanitarian missions such as the one in Haiti
In brief by the end of the first year of the second mandate of President Fernandez de
Kirchner and after the re-election of President Obama for a second term the bilateral
relationship remained characterized by little presidential dialogue low shared-
expectations outspoken differences and specific cooperation only on issues of common
interest Key coincidences and several major differences have not been institutionalized in
a general framework by which the mixture of consensus and dissent could be managed On
many occasions first and second-level government officials in Washington and Buenos
Aires overreacted to an incident or underplayed an accord In most cases the perception at
the highest level of each government was one of misunderstanding tiredness and
discomfort
Within this context the fact that Argentina will occupy a non-permanent seat on the
UN Security Council in 2013 ndash 2014 where critical issues will be on the agenda (some of
significance for Buenos Aires including the Malvinas-Falkland question as well as the
lsquovulture fundsrsquo suing Argentina in US courts regarding the 2001 debt default) Requiring
Washington to play a positive role may generate a situation that pushes both countries to
at least devise an improved consultative mechanism in order to handle their relationship
with more maturity and realism
Relations between Argentina and Brazil have been marked by the increase in
asymmetries between the two countries in terms of capabilities as well as in international
projection Since the crisis of 2001 Argentina has undergone a gradual process of
economic and self-esteem recovery whereas Brazil has consolidated its position as an
emerging power both regionally and globally These developments together with the loss
of US centrality in South America and Mexicorsquos growing links and interdependence with
North America have dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape in Latin America
particularly in South America
Three distinct phases can be highlighted in the Argentine-Brazilian relationship
since the beginning of the twenty-first century11 The first extends from the crisis of
2001 through 2003 and is characterized by the growing importance given to Brazil by
the elites and public opinion in Argentina While other governments were abandoning
Argentina the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Administration expressed solidarity with
the government led by Eduardo Duhalde during the time of crisis arguing that the
International Monetary Fund could not be insensitive to the serious situation which
afflicted Argentina and said that Brazil continued to trust in its main Mercosur
trading partner Later with Lula already in the Planalto the idea of Brazil as
lsquoalternative development modelrsquo to the one implemented in the 1990s and as the
lsquomain cardrsquo of Argentinarsquos international insertion became dominant in Buenos Aires
Nestor Kirchner took office in May 2003 stating Brazilrsquos importance for Argentina
and emphasized the need to give more weight and density to a common strategic
project However this positive vision of the bilateral relationship was expressed at the
beginning of a phase in which Argentina was leaving behind the crisis With gradual
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256 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
recovery came the revival in Argentina of an ambiguity vis-a-vis Brazil Although
Brazil was seen as a key player and partner it also raised suspicions and doubts
throughout the whole Argentine political spectrum Its status as an emerging power
produced concerns For the Right in Argentina the Lula presidency gave reasons to
refloat the perception of Brazil as an lsquoincorrigiblersquo country The different assessments of
the strategic condition of South America vis-a-vis Latin America also reappeared and with it
fears of a possible Brazilian hegemony in South America The government of Fernando de la
Rua (1999ndash2001) had had a preventive and defensive attitude about the political idea of South
America proposed by Brazil ndash a political and economic geographic area with its own
peculiarities and different from the lsquoLatin America of the Northrsquo The government of Nestor
Kirchner also adopted a reluctant position An eloquent example of this attitudewas President
Kirchnerrsquos decision not to attend the gestation of the South American Community of Nations
meeting (prior to its transformation into the Union of SouthAmericanNations) in 2004 on the
grounds that it was an instrument created by Brazil to project and ensure its own power in
the region
References to Brazil arose in the context of a stagnating Mercosur Repeated promises
to give the bloc a new birth ndash the so called lsquorelanzamientorsquo ndash could not hide that in terms
of its economic significance Mercosur exhibited clear signs of exhaustion Moreover
similar views in both capitals about the lsquodevelopment modelrsquo did not help to give more
oxygen to the integration process The convergence between Kirchner and Lula on the
need to restore the lsquoindustrialistrsquo vision of integration as opposed to the lsquocommercialrsquo
approach of the nineties gave the impression that the two countries were ready to give its
ties a new strategic perspective However the bilateral agenda of lsquoproductiversquo integration
and Brasiliarsquos acceptance of the importance of the lsquore-industrializationrsquo of Argentina were
interpreted in Buenos Aires as a right to establish protectionist measures for Brazilian
exports that threatened the national industry and even more to ignore certain rules This
propensity for defensive policies not only emphasized the lsquofatiguersquo of Mercosur but also
contributed to the low willingness on the part of Brasilia to accept limits to the
autonomous management of its foreign policy Integration never ceased to be a goal for
Brazil but with time acquired a minor role in the priorities of its foreign policy Its
systematic rejection of a surrender of elements of sovereignty and autonomy to the
Mercosur was one of the determinants of the institutional weakness of the bloc Moreover
as Monica Hirst has put it lsquothe importance of the South American economies as a space for
a larger expansion of the Brazilian companies and the statersquos presence as an investor
(Petrobras) and financier (BNDES) [Brazilian Development Bank] became more
important for Brazilian material and strategic interests that the regional integration
process especially the Mercosurrsquo12 In short ambiguous perceptions coexisted in
Argentina with fluctuating bilateral relations The setting was propitious for the
reappearance of anti-Brazil perceptions in Argentina The pro-Brazilian episodic euphoria
of the years of Duhalde (Brazil as a lsquogreat strategic allyrsquo) turned into doubt and criticism in
the second phase which goes from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2006 Explicitly
and implicitly by both the Right and the Left an ambivalent feeling towards Brazil
unfolded albeit without the pugnacity of the past but nevertheless highlighting the
difficulties of embedding a culture of friendship between the two countries13
As in other debates in Argentina these visions were remnants of perceptions forged in
the seventies and nineties Kirchnerrsquos own ambiguities style and measures in government
did not help to build a more positive image of the role of Brazil for Argentina Several
groups located in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the business world think-tanks and the
media encouraged the counterbalancing of Brazil in lsquoSouth Americarsquo by means of a
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 257
lsquoLatin-Americanrsquo policy in which the role of Mexico was presented as crucial On the
other hand the vision of Chile as a partner for a more balanced South America and as an
economic model also regained strength in a wide spectrum of the Argentine elites covering
the Right to the centre-Left Chilersquos image was contrasted with that of Brazil The first was
seen essentially as lsquopredictablersquo and lsquoreasonablersquo while the second after the triumph of
Lularsquos Workers Party tended to be presented on the opposite side For some closer
relations with Chile would serve to offset the influence of Brazil in the Southern Cone ndash a
Santiago ndash Buenos Aires axis to limit the Brazilian aspiration to lead the area ndash while
others perceived the lsquoChilean wayrsquo as the best manner for taking a safe distance from
Mercosur which was perceived as an obstacle to establishing a flexible dense and fruitful
relationship with the rest of the world Finally the Left identified the relationship with
Venezuela as a balancing factor for restraining the power of Brazil
The third phase of Argentine ndash Brazilian relations started at the end of 2006 and
extends to the present An interesting twist can be observed in the direction of a more
positive perception of Brazil that clearly puts it in a central place for Argentina Two main
factors explain this change The first and most important is the growing international
relevance and regional weight of Brazil This process has led to the formation of a
widespread perception in Argentina that defines Brazil as lsquoinevitablersquo with a predominant
negative and generally pessimistic bias or as a country that is lsquoindispensablersquo in this case
emphasizing the possibility of building a common future and a strong cooperative
relationship The idea of Brazil as a necessary country is widely accepted but has
variously been accepted with resignation disgust and joy alternatively viewed as an
opportunity or severe challenge The lsquosuccessrsquo of Brazil is often contrasted with the
lsquofailuresrsquo of Argentina and generates different feelings such as pain envy nostalgia and
desire for emulation In any case the growth and rise of Brazil has converted it into a
model for almost everyone The second factor is the growing density of bilateral relations
As an example it is interesting to note that Brazil is already the fourth largest foreign
investor in Argentina after the United States Spain and China In 2010 24 of total
exports (42 industrial) and 82 of the cars manufactured in Argentina were directed to
the Brazilian market and 863492 Brazilian tourists visited the country14 At the same
time the expansion of Brazilian companies in Argentinarsquos productive activity and trade
has been impressive in the last decade
The main issue for the future then is how to live and interact with the lsquoinevitablersquo or
lsquoindispensablersquo country This convergence of perceptions regarding the centrality of Brazil
for Argentina only goes so far There is no agreement on the political economic and
strategic interests that should constitute the relationship with Brazil and consequently
about the best ways to put them into practice The transition from an entrenched culture of
rivalry to an incipient culture of friendship has lasted more than a quarter of a century
providing promising dividends for both nations and offering a good platform from which
to renegotiate the growing bilateral ties The world and the region and the national
situation of the two countries especially concerning the distribution of attributes of
economic power are now very different to the 1980s when the two countries took the first
steps to build a positive bilateral relationship The double condition of the Argentine ndash
Brazilian relationship that is its increasingly close and uneven character suggests that
there will be a complex combination of convergence and divergence between the two
nations Argentina and Brazil never were Pakistan and India in terms of antagonism and
sought in the past to jointly become an equivalent to the Franco ndash German axis for the
integration of South America an aspiration that today is unsustainable Circumstances
have changed and the condition of lsquoasymmetric interdependencersquo is recognized and
Dow
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] at
02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
258 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
accepted in Argentina although not without the suspicions that characterize the attitudes
of the weaker party in a bilateral relationship In this context the main challenge for
Brasilia and Buenos Aires is to forge a realistic and positive lsquonew dealrsquo that contemplates
with its own specificity the bilateral relationship as well as Mercosur
In the end the above-mentioned three phases show the existence of both a changing
and intricate relationship If the theory of asymmetry is taken into consideration the first
move towards re-negotiating an unbalanced relationship should be initiated to a large
extent by the less powerful party In that sense it is yet unclear what the Argentine elites
(civilian and military economic and intellectual state-based and non-governmental) want
from relations with the continent (including the United States) the Spanish-speaking
region South America and finally Brazil Historically it has been quite difficult for
Argentines to have simultaneous positive relations with Washington and Brasilia In the
last two decades different opinions (sometimes personal more than collective) between
the lsquoLatin-Americanistsrsquo and the lsquoSouth-Americanistsrsquo favouring opposite strategic
options have been vocally expressed Currently several other countries in the area have
been increasing their leverage especially those facing the Pacific This phenomenon does
not go unnoticed by Argentine elites and is another source of domestic debate In this
dynamic and changing regional context Argentina has not been able to clearly establish
the goals and ambitions to guide its foreign policy towards the region and Brazil in
particular The response to this situation should be sought in essence in domestic politics
Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
Argentine ndash Chinese links should be placed in the larger context of China ndashLatin America
relations15 From a Latin American perspective Chinarsquos growing presence in the region
has been seen at least in the first decade of the twenty-first century as a promising trend
Chinarsquos ties with Latin America from the 1950s to the 1970s were marginal focused
primarily on cultural diplomacy driven by ideological motives and based on
revolutionary rhetoric This diplomatic strategy relied on the dividends of destabilization
was accompanied by anti-US slogans and was geared toward strengthening pro-Chinese
(and anti-Soviet) political parties and movements Chinarsquos international behaviour during
that period was that of a revisionist actor who sought to change the rules of the game
through aggressive means
In contrast Beijingrsquos approach to the region since the 1990s has involved an active
economic diplomacy characterized by pragmatism conciliation and stability Chinarsquos key
goal and main challenge has been to deepen its relations with the countries of Latin America
without irritating Washington Diplomatically China has proceeded in a judicious fashion
which explains in part why regional forces did not emerge to veto a policy of prudent and
consistent engagement toward China In addition Chinarsquos external diplomatic model has
been seductive to Latin America especially during the two administrations of George
W Bush in the United States multipolarism as opposed to unipolarism multilateralism as
opposed to unilateralism non-interference as opposed to interventionism soft power as
opposed to hard power pragmatism as opposed to ideologisation collaboration as opposed
to domination and persuasion as opposed to coercion All have been attractive notions in
Latin America Chinarsquos contemporary approach coincides with strong Latin American
traditions and aspirations and has become more captivating by virtue of the mishandling
disregard and thoughtlessness of US foreign policy towards the region
Nothing indicates that Latin America is geared towards accepting a paternalistic
externally-induced security dilemma with China and the region does not feel insecure visshy
Dow
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FU B
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] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 259
a-vis Beijing despite certain ideologically-driven pressure groups in Washington
Moreover the Sino ndash Latin American ndash US triangular relationship has not engendered
major tensions or unmanageable challenges16 There is also nothing to suggest from a
regional viewpoint that Latin America ndash China ndash United States relations are destined to an
apocalyptic geopolitics approach based on an overblown fear of an alleged Chinese
takeover of the region China is not the Soviet Union post 911 is not a rehearsal of the
Cold War Washington is no longer at the pinnacle of world power and Latin America has
not collapsed after the Western economic and financial crisis began in 2008 There is also
no indication that Chinarsquos intention is to challenge the United States in the Western
Hemisphere In fact the Chinese government has actively sought to convince the United
States and the rest of the world that its intentions are benign thus the self-portrayal of a
peaceful rise
Chinarsquos behaviour in Latin America at the outset of the twenty-first century has been
far from that of a revisionist power On the one hand Beijingrsquos strategy has combined
necessity with opportunity and has been put into practice cautiously and diligently
curtailing the likelihood that the region will develop or adopt a policy aimed at rolling
back Chinarsquos presence On the other hand Latin Americarsquos relationship with Beijing is
more dependent on economic facts than political conceptions As there is no major
ideological concern in most countries about dealing with China the crucial element is the
material effect of Sino ndash Latin American linkages the level of dependency of the region
vis-a-vis China the degree of de-industrialization of the area derived from bilateral trade
and the ecological consequences of Chinese investment in Latin America17
This broader framework is essential to understand the dynamics of Argentinarsquos
relations with China in the larger context of Argentinendash Asian links Over the past two
decades the (re)emergence of China and the ascent of Asia have been a blessing for
Argentina Rising demand and higher prices for commodities have made it possible for
Argentina to elevate and diversify its trade flows with the East Since the 1990s and
despite the discernible differences in economic and foreign policies between Carlos
Menem and the Kirchners Argentina has developed a new pattern of production that has
led notwithstanding the crisis of 2001 to a reorganization of the economic base of the
country As noted by Pablo Gerchunoff lsquoIt is not just about the speed of exports there is
also a significant diversification traditional agriculture new agriculture industry energy
and mining concurred to modify the national economic landscapersquo18 In that context and
according to President Nestor Kirchner it was crucial lsquothrough China to search in Asia the
leverage to re-industrialize Argentinarsquo Economy not politics has been the driving force
to improve and extend Argentine relations with the East19
For the first time in more than seven decades Argentina has met a world that eagerly
requires what it produces The key driver of this demand is located in China but covers a
wide range of countries At present China is Argentinarsquos second largest trading partner
both in terms of the origin of imports and recipient of exports ndash in both dimensions after
Brazil and before the United States (See Table 1) Argentina meanwhile ranks third in the
list of the 15 major suppliers of agricultural products which supplied 90 per cent of
Chinese imports in 2010 United States (244) Brazil (136) and Argentina (73)
Other major suppliers were the European Union (6) Australia (5) and Malaysia (5)
By 2001 Argentine exports to China surpassed the US$1 billion barrier to hit US$1123
billion and imports totalled US$1066 billion Thus there was a small surplus of US$56
million in favour of Argentina By 2010 the commercial exchange was worth US$13795
billion totalling US$6117 billion in Argentine exports and US$7678 billion in Chinese
exports The result was a trade balance of US$1561 billion in Chinarsquos favour20 In the
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ber
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260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
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ber
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262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
Dow
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
Dow
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ded
by [
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02
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5 N
ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
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ded
by [
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
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- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
252 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
favoured3 In each cycle the nature and strategic meaning of relations between Argentina
and the United States and the neighbouring countries of South America were the main
topic of discussion At present and in contrast to the Cold War years and the nineties
relations with both counterparts are developing in a context marked by a novel process that
has two visible faces the erosion of the United States hegemony in South America and the
progressive consolidation of a specific South American subsystem mainly in the Southern
Cone characterized by the emergence of Brazil as a sub-regional power In this scheme
the previous dominant power the United States is no longer central to Argentina while the
emerging power Brazil plays an increasingly important role for the countryrsquos
international relations In both cases asymmetry defines bilateral relations4 The greater
asymmetry of power with the United States weighs less in the relationship due to
Washingtonrsquos declining interest attention and influence in Argentina Indeed the most
powerful actor has lost a great part of its structural power to shape the structure of the
relationship As a consequence its relational power has also weakened that is its capacity
to make Argentina follow its desires and interests has waned significantly5 The minor
asymmetry with Brazil has become a structural feature of bilateral relations and exercises
on Argentina a different effect than the classic asymmetry with the United States for two
main reasons it does not have the magnitude of the former and it occurs in a geographical
area ndash South America ndash that has unique characteristics regarding interstate cooperation and
competence The sub-regionhas someof the features that define a subsystemofhierarchy a) a
main power that is expected to help order the system and to use its power judiciously and b) a
set of shared expectations about state behaviour based on updated information about state
preferences and intentions shared experiences as well as a deep history that reduces
the security dilemma6 At the same time it exhibits elements which distinguish it from
the hierarchic model These are mainly the absence of a central dominant nation and a set
of shared expectations of rights and responsibilities for both the major and the secondary
powers
The sub-region also has a long and distinctive history of interstate peace and
pacific resolution of conflicts that has been fundamental for mitigating the security
dilemma The countries that comprise it are showing remarkable levels of cooperation
Moreover the main power (Brazil) has good relations with all its neighbours and
there are no foreseeable state threats coming from them Within this context and
under this particular form of asymmetry Argentina and Brazil have found a way not
always easily to accommodate each other At the same time and as in other moments
of redistribution of global wealth and power relations with new regions or countries
also occupy an important place in Argentinarsquos foreign policy agenda After World
War II and throughout the Cold War the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc were
important partners They offered the country technology and key markets for
Argentine exports that faced increasing access restrictions with traditional clients
particularly in Europe Today the focus is Asia especially China as a new and
essential counterpart for Argentina For its part the European Union continues to lose
ground as a key partner a process that has been intensified in recent years by the
EUrsquos relative loss of power international prestige and influence
The question that guides this paper is the following What are the implications of three
particular and key aspects of the overall process of redistribution of power and diffusion of
wealth for Argentinarsquos foreign relations We refer to the relative loss of centrality of the
United States in the Southern Cone the ongoing consolidation of a South American
system with Brazil as the main power and the re-emergence of China and its growing
interest in South America The period under study extends from the beginning of the
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 253
century to the present Argentina has responded to each of these developments in a distinct
manner With the United States it has abandoned the strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo and has
implemented a strategy of lsquolimited oppositionrsquo 7 Towards Brazil Argentina has pursued a
strategy of accommodation seeking to gain benefits but also to retain as much autonomy as
possible Finally vis-a-vis China Argentina has practiced a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo
that has provided clear benefits but which also seems to be exhausting
Relations with the United States Brazil and China are analysed respectively in the two
following sections The focus of our work is placed on the implications of global and
regional changes in the foreign relations of Argentina It is important to note that these
changes do not fall into Gilpinrsquos category of lsquosystemic changesrsquo The changes to which we
refer here belong to a long duration historical cycle that is still in progress and which is
marked by the redistribution of power and wealth from West to East and from North to
South in the context of globalization8 The resultant changes offer unprecedented
opportunities and challenges to most Latin American countries and demand to a large
extent a rethinking of foreign policy its priorities and exercise The paper concludes with
a section in which we try to put into perspective Argentinarsquos relations with the three above
mentioned countries
The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
Argentina-United States relations have experienced significant changes since the
beginning of the twenty-first century The events of 911 in the United States relegated
Argentina to an even less important position from that it had occupied in the George
W Bush administrationrsquos already reduced Latin American agenda Moreover
Washingtonrsquos decision not to support Argentina when the country defaulted on its debt
in late 2001 was read in Buenos Aires and other Latin American capitals as a clear sign
that lsquocouplingrsquo with the United States goes unrewarded and that the time of the
Washington Consensus was coming to an end Most of the Peronists back in government
after the financial crisis found fresh arguments to criticize Washingtonrsquos coldness as well
as the recipes of the IMF and the neoliberal policies pursued by the country in the nineties
From this moment onwards bilateral relations were gradually dominated by two main
trends the loss of US centrality in the foreign policy of Argentina and the growing
indifference of Washington vis-a-vis Buenos Aires
During the first months that followed the crisis Argentina opted for a lsquoselective
rapprochementrsquo with the Unites States rather than merely band wagoning At that time
Washingtonrsquos role was considered central for overcoming the crisis because of its
influence in the multilateral lending institutions Emboldened by the first signs of
economic recovery Eduardo Duhaldersquos transition government (2002 ndash 2003) began to
voice its opposition to some policies of Washington at the end of his short administration
for example to the US military intervention in Iraq The rapid and even startling recovery
from the crisis and the high growth of Argentinarsquos economy in subsequent years
strengthened the idea in Buenos Aires that the country could grow and develop without
Washington and certainly against its economic prescriptions This notion was reinforced
after the March 2005 agreement with private creditors of the debt in default (76 of the
bondholders) and the cancelation in January 2006 of the US$98 billion debt with the IMF
in a single payment using reserves of the Central Bank Thus over a period of around three
years the United States ceased to be seen as an lsquoindispensable nationrsquo for Argentina
The idea that Argentina could do for the most part without strong ties to Washington
had clear ideological components that came from the inner circle of the Nestor Kirchnerrsquos
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ovem
ber
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254 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
administration (2003 ndash 2007) However it found its greatest support in the material
conditions offered by a global and regional scenario that opened new and extraordinary
opportunities to the country China became a key trading partner and Brazil behaved as the
closest country to Argentina during and in the years following the crisis Meanwhile the
United States did not devote much time to Argentina let alone the wider South America
This fact was much more than the mere repetition of the United States tendency to put
Latin America in a secondary position in its foreign policy concerns It has to be situated in
the context of the long-term process of U S hegemonic decline in South America
especially in the Southern Cone countries
More specifically the low strategic relevance of Argentina for the United States helps
explain the growing indifference of Washington towards the country This fact is not new
but has intensified during this century Argentina does not have a prominent place in any of
the priority issues on the United Statesrsquo Latin American agenda trade migration drugs
terrorism and public safety and energy A second factor that also explains Washingtonrsquos
estrangement from Buenos Aires is a sequence of bilateral conflictive episodes of high-
voltage in which Argentina played or was seen to play the role of the actor less open to
dialogue and more prone to overacting Vocal criticism on the Argentine side first to the
IMF and later to Washingtonrsquos policies past and present became louder as Argentinarsquos
economy recovered The climax came at the Fourth Summit of the Americas held in Mar
del Plata on November 4 and 5 2005 where the then president of Argentina Nestor
Kirchner firmly opposed lsquoneoliberalismrsquo and the creation of a hemispheric free trade area
(FTAA) and accused the United States of having an lsquoanachronistic viewrsquo of the problems
afflicting developing countries Moreover he called on Bush to have a more responsible
leadership in Latin America by ending his support for policies that had lsquonot only led to
misery and poverty but also the fall of democratically elected governmentsrsquo9 Mar del Plata
marked a turn for the worse in bilateral relations and Washington was left with a bitter taste
that would linger until the end of George W Bushrsquos presidency Moreover while the so
called lsquoArgentine modelrsquo heterodox and lsquoneo-developmentalistrsquo in its economic
orientation did not fit into the category of lsquoLatin American radical populismsrsquo it was
viewed by US officials with suspicion and disgust Although Nestor Kirchner never
subscribed to the tenets of the lsquosocialism of the twenty-first centuryrsquo Washington watched
with dissatisfaction the close links established betweenArgentina and Venezuelarsquos Chavez
After the inauguration of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner to the presidency of
Argentina in December 2007 new conflicts contributed to deepen lsquomutual detachmentrsquo
Barack Obamarsquos arrival in office in January 2008 was considered by Buenos Aires as an
opportunity to open a new dialogue Moreover the financial crisis in the United States
merely reinforced government beliefs and policies on the role of the state in the economy
and on the need to reform the multilateral lending agencies However with its first
domestic and foreign policies the Obama Administration soon showed that the ideological
affinities world views and purposes were less similar to what at first could have been
imagined at the Casa Rosada President Fernandez de Kirchner rapidly moved from initial
lsquoadmirationrsquo to conclude that President Obama lsquohad not fulfilled the expectationsrsquo and that
his Administration lsquoignores the needs of the Southern Conersquo10
Over the years the distancing on global and regional issues became apparent the threat
and the use of force in the Middle East Central Asia and Northern Africa the conception
and practice of the lsquoResponsibility to Protectrsquo the statehood condition of Palestine the level
and scope of protectionism the promotion and enforcement of stronger financial regulations
worldwide the approach vis-a-vis specific countries such as Iran the half-century old
Cuban blockade the debate and reform over crucial aspects of the Inter-American system
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ber
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 255
such as the Inter-American Defence Board and the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal
assistance the differences in views and attitudes vis-a-vis a sort of lsquoneo-coupismrsquo
(neogolpismo) in the region such as in Venezuela (2002) Honduras (2009) Ecuador (2010) and Paraguay (2012) and the broadening and militarization of the lsquowar on drugsrsquo However
a simultaneous convergence on important world and continental topics has been evident
acting in favour of nuclear non-proliferation avoiding the presence of transnational
terrorism in the area (for example in the Tri-border zone of Argentina Brazil and
Paraguay) supporting the human rights component of the Inter-American system and
participating in humanitarian missions such as the one in Haiti
In brief by the end of the first year of the second mandate of President Fernandez de
Kirchner and after the re-election of President Obama for a second term the bilateral
relationship remained characterized by little presidential dialogue low shared-
expectations outspoken differences and specific cooperation only on issues of common
interest Key coincidences and several major differences have not been institutionalized in
a general framework by which the mixture of consensus and dissent could be managed On
many occasions first and second-level government officials in Washington and Buenos
Aires overreacted to an incident or underplayed an accord In most cases the perception at
the highest level of each government was one of misunderstanding tiredness and
discomfort
Within this context the fact that Argentina will occupy a non-permanent seat on the
UN Security Council in 2013 ndash 2014 where critical issues will be on the agenda (some of
significance for Buenos Aires including the Malvinas-Falkland question as well as the
lsquovulture fundsrsquo suing Argentina in US courts regarding the 2001 debt default) Requiring
Washington to play a positive role may generate a situation that pushes both countries to
at least devise an improved consultative mechanism in order to handle their relationship
with more maturity and realism
Relations between Argentina and Brazil have been marked by the increase in
asymmetries between the two countries in terms of capabilities as well as in international
projection Since the crisis of 2001 Argentina has undergone a gradual process of
economic and self-esteem recovery whereas Brazil has consolidated its position as an
emerging power both regionally and globally These developments together with the loss
of US centrality in South America and Mexicorsquos growing links and interdependence with
North America have dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape in Latin America
particularly in South America
Three distinct phases can be highlighted in the Argentine-Brazilian relationship
since the beginning of the twenty-first century11 The first extends from the crisis of
2001 through 2003 and is characterized by the growing importance given to Brazil by
the elites and public opinion in Argentina While other governments were abandoning
Argentina the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Administration expressed solidarity with
the government led by Eduardo Duhalde during the time of crisis arguing that the
International Monetary Fund could not be insensitive to the serious situation which
afflicted Argentina and said that Brazil continued to trust in its main Mercosur
trading partner Later with Lula already in the Planalto the idea of Brazil as
lsquoalternative development modelrsquo to the one implemented in the 1990s and as the
lsquomain cardrsquo of Argentinarsquos international insertion became dominant in Buenos Aires
Nestor Kirchner took office in May 2003 stating Brazilrsquos importance for Argentina
and emphasized the need to give more weight and density to a common strategic
project However this positive vision of the bilateral relationship was expressed at the
beginning of a phase in which Argentina was leaving behind the crisis With gradual
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256 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
recovery came the revival in Argentina of an ambiguity vis-a-vis Brazil Although
Brazil was seen as a key player and partner it also raised suspicions and doubts
throughout the whole Argentine political spectrum Its status as an emerging power
produced concerns For the Right in Argentina the Lula presidency gave reasons to
refloat the perception of Brazil as an lsquoincorrigiblersquo country The different assessments of
the strategic condition of South America vis-a-vis Latin America also reappeared and with it
fears of a possible Brazilian hegemony in South America The government of Fernando de la
Rua (1999ndash2001) had had a preventive and defensive attitude about the political idea of South
America proposed by Brazil ndash a political and economic geographic area with its own
peculiarities and different from the lsquoLatin America of the Northrsquo The government of Nestor
Kirchner also adopted a reluctant position An eloquent example of this attitudewas President
Kirchnerrsquos decision not to attend the gestation of the South American Community of Nations
meeting (prior to its transformation into the Union of SouthAmericanNations) in 2004 on the
grounds that it was an instrument created by Brazil to project and ensure its own power in
the region
References to Brazil arose in the context of a stagnating Mercosur Repeated promises
to give the bloc a new birth ndash the so called lsquorelanzamientorsquo ndash could not hide that in terms
of its economic significance Mercosur exhibited clear signs of exhaustion Moreover
similar views in both capitals about the lsquodevelopment modelrsquo did not help to give more
oxygen to the integration process The convergence between Kirchner and Lula on the
need to restore the lsquoindustrialistrsquo vision of integration as opposed to the lsquocommercialrsquo
approach of the nineties gave the impression that the two countries were ready to give its
ties a new strategic perspective However the bilateral agenda of lsquoproductiversquo integration
and Brasiliarsquos acceptance of the importance of the lsquore-industrializationrsquo of Argentina were
interpreted in Buenos Aires as a right to establish protectionist measures for Brazilian
exports that threatened the national industry and even more to ignore certain rules This
propensity for defensive policies not only emphasized the lsquofatiguersquo of Mercosur but also
contributed to the low willingness on the part of Brasilia to accept limits to the
autonomous management of its foreign policy Integration never ceased to be a goal for
Brazil but with time acquired a minor role in the priorities of its foreign policy Its
systematic rejection of a surrender of elements of sovereignty and autonomy to the
Mercosur was one of the determinants of the institutional weakness of the bloc Moreover
as Monica Hirst has put it lsquothe importance of the South American economies as a space for
a larger expansion of the Brazilian companies and the statersquos presence as an investor
(Petrobras) and financier (BNDES) [Brazilian Development Bank] became more
important for Brazilian material and strategic interests that the regional integration
process especially the Mercosurrsquo12 In short ambiguous perceptions coexisted in
Argentina with fluctuating bilateral relations The setting was propitious for the
reappearance of anti-Brazil perceptions in Argentina The pro-Brazilian episodic euphoria
of the years of Duhalde (Brazil as a lsquogreat strategic allyrsquo) turned into doubt and criticism in
the second phase which goes from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2006 Explicitly
and implicitly by both the Right and the Left an ambivalent feeling towards Brazil
unfolded albeit without the pugnacity of the past but nevertheless highlighting the
difficulties of embedding a culture of friendship between the two countries13
As in other debates in Argentina these visions were remnants of perceptions forged in
the seventies and nineties Kirchnerrsquos own ambiguities style and measures in government
did not help to build a more positive image of the role of Brazil for Argentina Several
groups located in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the business world think-tanks and the
media encouraged the counterbalancing of Brazil in lsquoSouth Americarsquo by means of a
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ovem
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 257
lsquoLatin-Americanrsquo policy in which the role of Mexico was presented as crucial On the
other hand the vision of Chile as a partner for a more balanced South America and as an
economic model also regained strength in a wide spectrum of the Argentine elites covering
the Right to the centre-Left Chilersquos image was contrasted with that of Brazil The first was
seen essentially as lsquopredictablersquo and lsquoreasonablersquo while the second after the triumph of
Lularsquos Workers Party tended to be presented on the opposite side For some closer
relations with Chile would serve to offset the influence of Brazil in the Southern Cone ndash a
Santiago ndash Buenos Aires axis to limit the Brazilian aspiration to lead the area ndash while
others perceived the lsquoChilean wayrsquo as the best manner for taking a safe distance from
Mercosur which was perceived as an obstacle to establishing a flexible dense and fruitful
relationship with the rest of the world Finally the Left identified the relationship with
Venezuela as a balancing factor for restraining the power of Brazil
The third phase of Argentine ndash Brazilian relations started at the end of 2006 and
extends to the present An interesting twist can be observed in the direction of a more
positive perception of Brazil that clearly puts it in a central place for Argentina Two main
factors explain this change The first and most important is the growing international
relevance and regional weight of Brazil This process has led to the formation of a
widespread perception in Argentina that defines Brazil as lsquoinevitablersquo with a predominant
negative and generally pessimistic bias or as a country that is lsquoindispensablersquo in this case
emphasizing the possibility of building a common future and a strong cooperative
relationship The idea of Brazil as a necessary country is widely accepted but has
variously been accepted with resignation disgust and joy alternatively viewed as an
opportunity or severe challenge The lsquosuccessrsquo of Brazil is often contrasted with the
lsquofailuresrsquo of Argentina and generates different feelings such as pain envy nostalgia and
desire for emulation In any case the growth and rise of Brazil has converted it into a
model for almost everyone The second factor is the growing density of bilateral relations
As an example it is interesting to note that Brazil is already the fourth largest foreign
investor in Argentina after the United States Spain and China In 2010 24 of total
exports (42 industrial) and 82 of the cars manufactured in Argentina were directed to
the Brazilian market and 863492 Brazilian tourists visited the country14 At the same
time the expansion of Brazilian companies in Argentinarsquos productive activity and trade
has been impressive in the last decade
The main issue for the future then is how to live and interact with the lsquoinevitablersquo or
lsquoindispensablersquo country This convergence of perceptions regarding the centrality of Brazil
for Argentina only goes so far There is no agreement on the political economic and
strategic interests that should constitute the relationship with Brazil and consequently
about the best ways to put them into practice The transition from an entrenched culture of
rivalry to an incipient culture of friendship has lasted more than a quarter of a century
providing promising dividends for both nations and offering a good platform from which
to renegotiate the growing bilateral ties The world and the region and the national
situation of the two countries especially concerning the distribution of attributes of
economic power are now very different to the 1980s when the two countries took the first
steps to build a positive bilateral relationship The double condition of the Argentine ndash
Brazilian relationship that is its increasingly close and uneven character suggests that
there will be a complex combination of convergence and divergence between the two
nations Argentina and Brazil never were Pakistan and India in terms of antagonism and
sought in the past to jointly become an equivalent to the Franco ndash German axis for the
integration of South America an aspiration that today is unsustainable Circumstances
have changed and the condition of lsquoasymmetric interdependencersquo is recognized and
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ovem
ber
2014
258 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
accepted in Argentina although not without the suspicions that characterize the attitudes
of the weaker party in a bilateral relationship In this context the main challenge for
Brasilia and Buenos Aires is to forge a realistic and positive lsquonew dealrsquo that contemplates
with its own specificity the bilateral relationship as well as Mercosur
In the end the above-mentioned three phases show the existence of both a changing
and intricate relationship If the theory of asymmetry is taken into consideration the first
move towards re-negotiating an unbalanced relationship should be initiated to a large
extent by the less powerful party In that sense it is yet unclear what the Argentine elites
(civilian and military economic and intellectual state-based and non-governmental) want
from relations with the continent (including the United States) the Spanish-speaking
region South America and finally Brazil Historically it has been quite difficult for
Argentines to have simultaneous positive relations with Washington and Brasilia In the
last two decades different opinions (sometimes personal more than collective) between
the lsquoLatin-Americanistsrsquo and the lsquoSouth-Americanistsrsquo favouring opposite strategic
options have been vocally expressed Currently several other countries in the area have
been increasing their leverage especially those facing the Pacific This phenomenon does
not go unnoticed by Argentine elites and is another source of domestic debate In this
dynamic and changing regional context Argentina has not been able to clearly establish
the goals and ambitions to guide its foreign policy towards the region and Brazil in
particular The response to this situation should be sought in essence in domestic politics
Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
Argentine ndash Chinese links should be placed in the larger context of China ndashLatin America
relations15 From a Latin American perspective Chinarsquos growing presence in the region
has been seen at least in the first decade of the twenty-first century as a promising trend
Chinarsquos ties with Latin America from the 1950s to the 1970s were marginal focused
primarily on cultural diplomacy driven by ideological motives and based on
revolutionary rhetoric This diplomatic strategy relied on the dividends of destabilization
was accompanied by anti-US slogans and was geared toward strengthening pro-Chinese
(and anti-Soviet) political parties and movements Chinarsquos international behaviour during
that period was that of a revisionist actor who sought to change the rules of the game
through aggressive means
In contrast Beijingrsquos approach to the region since the 1990s has involved an active
economic diplomacy characterized by pragmatism conciliation and stability Chinarsquos key
goal and main challenge has been to deepen its relations with the countries of Latin America
without irritating Washington Diplomatically China has proceeded in a judicious fashion
which explains in part why regional forces did not emerge to veto a policy of prudent and
consistent engagement toward China In addition Chinarsquos external diplomatic model has
been seductive to Latin America especially during the two administrations of George
W Bush in the United States multipolarism as opposed to unipolarism multilateralism as
opposed to unilateralism non-interference as opposed to interventionism soft power as
opposed to hard power pragmatism as opposed to ideologisation collaboration as opposed
to domination and persuasion as opposed to coercion All have been attractive notions in
Latin America Chinarsquos contemporary approach coincides with strong Latin American
traditions and aspirations and has become more captivating by virtue of the mishandling
disregard and thoughtlessness of US foreign policy towards the region
Nothing indicates that Latin America is geared towards accepting a paternalistic
externally-induced security dilemma with China and the region does not feel insecure visshy
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 259
a-vis Beijing despite certain ideologically-driven pressure groups in Washington
Moreover the Sino ndash Latin American ndash US triangular relationship has not engendered
major tensions or unmanageable challenges16 There is also nothing to suggest from a
regional viewpoint that Latin America ndash China ndash United States relations are destined to an
apocalyptic geopolitics approach based on an overblown fear of an alleged Chinese
takeover of the region China is not the Soviet Union post 911 is not a rehearsal of the
Cold War Washington is no longer at the pinnacle of world power and Latin America has
not collapsed after the Western economic and financial crisis began in 2008 There is also
no indication that Chinarsquos intention is to challenge the United States in the Western
Hemisphere In fact the Chinese government has actively sought to convince the United
States and the rest of the world that its intentions are benign thus the self-portrayal of a
peaceful rise
Chinarsquos behaviour in Latin America at the outset of the twenty-first century has been
far from that of a revisionist power On the one hand Beijingrsquos strategy has combined
necessity with opportunity and has been put into practice cautiously and diligently
curtailing the likelihood that the region will develop or adopt a policy aimed at rolling
back Chinarsquos presence On the other hand Latin Americarsquos relationship with Beijing is
more dependent on economic facts than political conceptions As there is no major
ideological concern in most countries about dealing with China the crucial element is the
material effect of Sino ndash Latin American linkages the level of dependency of the region
vis-a-vis China the degree of de-industrialization of the area derived from bilateral trade
and the ecological consequences of Chinese investment in Latin America17
This broader framework is essential to understand the dynamics of Argentinarsquos
relations with China in the larger context of Argentinendash Asian links Over the past two
decades the (re)emergence of China and the ascent of Asia have been a blessing for
Argentina Rising demand and higher prices for commodities have made it possible for
Argentina to elevate and diversify its trade flows with the East Since the 1990s and
despite the discernible differences in economic and foreign policies between Carlos
Menem and the Kirchners Argentina has developed a new pattern of production that has
led notwithstanding the crisis of 2001 to a reorganization of the economic base of the
country As noted by Pablo Gerchunoff lsquoIt is not just about the speed of exports there is
also a significant diversification traditional agriculture new agriculture industry energy
and mining concurred to modify the national economic landscapersquo18 In that context and
according to President Nestor Kirchner it was crucial lsquothrough China to search in Asia the
leverage to re-industrialize Argentinarsquo Economy not politics has been the driving force
to improve and extend Argentine relations with the East19
For the first time in more than seven decades Argentina has met a world that eagerly
requires what it produces The key driver of this demand is located in China but covers a
wide range of countries At present China is Argentinarsquos second largest trading partner
both in terms of the origin of imports and recipient of exports ndash in both dimensions after
Brazil and before the United States (See Table 1) Argentina meanwhile ranks third in the
list of the 15 major suppliers of agricultural products which supplied 90 per cent of
Chinese imports in 2010 United States (244) Brazil (136) and Argentina (73)
Other major suppliers were the European Union (6) Australia (5) and Malaysia (5)
By 2001 Argentine exports to China surpassed the US$1 billion barrier to hit US$1123
billion and imports totalled US$1066 billion Thus there was a small surplus of US$56
million in favour of Argentina By 2010 the commercial exchange was worth US$13795
billion totalling US$6117 billion in Argentine exports and US$7678 billion in Chinese
exports The result was a trade balance of US$1561 billion in Chinarsquos favour20 In the
Dow
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
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ber
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
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262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
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ded
by [
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
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ded
by [
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
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by [
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erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 253
century to the present Argentina has responded to each of these developments in a distinct
manner With the United States it has abandoned the strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo and has
implemented a strategy of lsquolimited oppositionrsquo 7 Towards Brazil Argentina has pursued a
strategy of accommodation seeking to gain benefits but also to retain as much autonomy as
possible Finally vis-a-vis China Argentina has practiced a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo
that has provided clear benefits but which also seems to be exhausting
Relations with the United States Brazil and China are analysed respectively in the two
following sections The focus of our work is placed on the implications of global and
regional changes in the foreign relations of Argentina It is important to note that these
changes do not fall into Gilpinrsquos category of lsquosystemic changesrsquo The changes to which we
refer here belong to a long duration historical cycle that is still in progress and which is
marked by the redistribution of power and wealth from West to East and from North to
South in the context of globalization8 The resultant changes offer unprecedented
opportunities and challenges to most Latin American countries and demand to a large
extent a rethinking of foreign policy its priorities and exercise The paper concludes with
a section in which we try to put into perspective Argentinarsquos relations with the three above
mentioned countries
The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
Argentina-United States relations have experienced significant changes since the
beginning of the twenty-first century The events of 911 in the United States relegated
Argentina to an even less important position from that it had occupied in the George
W Bush administrationrsquos already reduced Latin American agenda Moreover
Washingtonrsquos decision not to support Argentina when the country defaulted on its debt
in late 2001 was read in Buenos Aires and other Latin American capitals as a clear sign
that lsquocouplingrsquo with the United States goes unrewarded and that the time of the
Washington Consensus was coming to an end Most of the Peronists back in government
after the financial crisis found fresh arguments to criticize Washingtonrsquos coldness as well
as the recipes of the IMF and the neoliberal policies pursued by the country in the nineties
From this moment onwards bilateral relations were gradually dominated by two main
trends the loss of US centrality in the foreign policy of Argentina and the growing
indifference of Washington vis-a-vis Buenos Aires
During the first months that followed the crisis Argentina opted for a lsquoselective
rapprochementrsquo with the Unites States rather than merely band wagoning At that time
Washingtonrsquos role was considered central for overcoming the crisis because of its
influence in the multilateral lending institutions Emboldened by the first signs of
economic recovery Eduardo Duhaldersquos transition government (2002 ndash 2003) began to
voice its opposition to some policies of Washington at the end of his short administration
for example to the US military intervention in Iraq The rapid and even startling recovery
from the crisis and the high growth of Argentinarsquos economy in subsequent years
strengthened the idea in Buenos Aires that the country could grow and develop without
Washington and certainly against its economic prescriptions This notion was reinforced
after the March 2005 agreement with private creditors of the debt in default (76 of the
bondholders) and the cancelation in January 2006 of the US$98 billion debt with the IMF
in a single payment using reserves of the Central Bank Thus over a period of around three
years the United States ceased to be seen as an lsquoindispensable nationrsquo for Argentina
The idea that Argentina could do for the most part without strong ties to Washington
had clear ideological components that came from the inner circle of the Nestor Kirchnerrsquos
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ber
2014
254 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
administration (2003 ndash 2007) However it found its greatest support in the material
conditions offered by a global and regional scenario that opened new and extraordinary
opportunities to the country China became a key trading partner and Brazil behaved as the
closest country to Argentina during and in the years following the crisis Meanwhile the
United States did not devote much time to Argentina let alone the wider South America
This fact was much more than the mere repetition of the United States tendency to put
Latin America in a secondary position in its foreign policy concerns It has to be situated in
the context of the long-term process of U S hegemonic decline in South America
especially in the Southern Cone countries
More specifically the low strategic relevance of Argentina for the United States helps
explain the growing indifference of Washington towards the country This fact is not new
but has intensified during this century Argentina does not have a prominent place in any of
the priority issues on the United Statesrsquo Latin American agenda trade migration drugs
terrorism and public safety and energy A second factor that also explains Washingtonrsquos
estrangement from Buenos Aires is a sequence of bilateral conflictive episodes of high-
voltage in which Argentina played or was seen to play the role of the actor less open to
dialogue and more prone to overacting Vocal criticism on the Argentine side first to the
IMF and later to Washingtonrsquos policies past and present became louder as Argentinarsquos
economy recovered The climax came at the Fourth Summit of the Americas held in Mar
del Plata on November 4 and 5 2005 where the then president of Argentina Nestor
Kirchner firmly opposed lsquoneoliberalismrsquo and the creation of a hemispheric free trade area
(FTAA) and accused the United States of having an lsquoanachronistic viewrsquo of the problems
afflicting developing countries Moreover he called on Bush to have a more responsible
leadership in Latin America by ending his support for policies that had lsquonot only led to
misery and poverty but also the fall of democratically elected governmentsrsquo9 Mar del Plata
marked a turn for the worse in bilateral relations and Washington was left with a bitter taste
that would linger until the end of George W Bushrsquos presidency Moreover while the so
called lsquoArgentine modelrsquo heterodox and lsquoneo-developmentalistrsquo in its economic
orientation did not fit into the category of lsquoLatin American radical populismsrsquo it was
viewed by US officials with suspicion and disgust Although Nestor Kirchner never
subscribed to the tenets of the lsquosocialism of the twenty-first centuryrsquo Washington watched
with dissatisfaction the close links established betweenArgentina and Venezuelarsquos Chavez
After the inauguration of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner to the presidency of
Argentina in December 2007 new conflicts contributed to deepen lsquomutual detachmentrsquo
Barack Obamarsquos arrival in office in January 2008 was considered by Buenos Aires as an
opportunity to open a new dialogue Moreover the financial crisis in the United States
merely reinforced government beliefs and policies on the role of the state in the economy
and on the need to reform the multilateral lending agencies However with its first
domestic and foreign policies the Obama Administration soon showed that the ideological
affinities world views and purposes were less similar to what at first could have been
imagined at the Casa Rosada President Fernandez de Kirchner rapidly moved from initial
lsquoadmirationrsquo to conclude that President Obama lsquohad not fulfilled the expectationsrsquo and that
his Administration lsquoignores the needs of the Southern Conersquo10
Over the years the distancing on global and regional issues became apparent the threat
and the use of force in the Middle East Central Asia and Northern Africa the conception
and practice of the lsquoResponsibility to Protectrsquo the statehood condition of Palestine the level
and scope of protectionism the promotion and enforcement of stronger financial regulations
worldwide the approach vis-a-vis specific countries such as Iran the half-century old
Cuban blockade the debate and reform over crucial aspects of the Inter-American system
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 255
such as the Inter-American Defence Board and the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal
assistance the differences in views and attitudes vis-a-vis a sort of lsquoneo-coupismrsquo
(neogolpismo) in the region such as in Venezuela (2002) Honduras (2009) Ecuador (2010) and Paraguay (2012) and the broadening and militarization of the lsquowar on drugsrsquo However
a simultaneous convergence on important world and continental topics has been evident
acting in favour of nuclear non-proliferation avoiding the presence of transnational
terrorism in the area (for example in the Tri-border zone of Argentina Brazil and
Paraguay) supporting the human rights component of the Inter-American system and
participating in humanitarian missions such as the one in Haiti
In brief by the end of the first year of the second mandate of President Fernandez de
Kirchner and after the re-election of President Obama for a second term the bilateral
relationship remained characterized by little presidential dialogue low shared-
expectations outspoken differences and specific cooperation only on issues of common
interest Key coincidences and several major differences have not been institutionalized in
a general framework by which the mixture of consensus and dissent could be managed On
many occasions first and second-level government officials in Washington and Buenos
Aires overreacted to an incident or underplayed an accord In most cases the perception at
the highest level of each government was one of misunderstanding tiredness and
discomfort
Within this context the fact that Argentina will occupy a non-permanent seat on the
UN Security Council in 2013 ndash 2014 where critical issues will be on the agenda (some of
significance for Buenos Aires including the Malvinas-Falkland question as well as the
lsquovulture fundsrsquo suing Argentina in US courts regarding the 2001 debt default) Requiring
Washington to play a positive role may generate a situation that pushes both countries to
at least devise an improved consultative mechanism in order to handle their relationship
with more maturity and realism
Relations between Argentina and Brazil have been marked by the increase in
asymmetries between the two countries in terms of capabilities as well as in international
projection Since the crisis of 2001 Argentina has undergone a gradual process of
economic and self-esteem recovery whereas Brazil has consolidated its position as an
emerging power both regionally and globally These developments together with the loss
of US centrality in South America and Mexicorsquos growing links and interdependence with
North America have dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape in Latin America
particularly in South America
Three distinct phases can be highlighted in the Argentine-Brazilian relationship
since the beginning of the twenty-first century11 The first extends from the crisis of
2001 through 2003 and is characterized by the growing importance given to Brazil by
the elites and public opinion in Argentina While other governments were abandoning
Argentina the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Administration expressed solidarity with
the government led by Eduardo Duhalde during the time of crisis arguing that the
International Monetary Fund could not be insensitive to the serious situation which
afflicted Argentina and said that Brazil continued to trust in its main Mercosur
trading partner Later with Lula already in the Planalto the idea of Brazil as
lsquoalternative development modelrsquo to the one implemented in the 1990s and as the
lsquomain cardrsquo of Argentinarsquos international insertion became dominant in Buenos Aires
Nestor Kirchner took office in May 2003 stating Brazilrsquos importance for Argentina
and emphasized the need to give more weight and density to a common strategic
project However this positive vision of the bilateral relationship was expressed at the
beginning of a phase in which Argentina was leaving behind the crisis With gradual
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ber
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256 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
recovery came the revival in Argentina of an ambiguity vis-a-vis Brazil Although
Brazil was seen as a key player and partner it also raised suspicions and doubts
throughout the whole Argentine political spectrum Its status as an emerging power
produced concerns For the Right in Argentina the Lula presidency gave reasons to
refloat the perception of Brazil as an lsquoincorrigiblersquo country The different assessments of
the strategic condition of South America vis-a-vis Latin America also reappeared and with it
fears of a possible Brazilian hegemony in South America The government of Fernando de la
Rua (1999ndash2001) had had a preventive and defensive attitude about the political idea of South
America proposed by Brazil ndash a political and economic geographic area with its own
peculiarities and different from the lsquoLatin America of the Northrsquo The government of Nestor
Kirchner also adopted a reluctant position An eloquent example of this attitudewas President
Kirchnerrsquos decision not to attend the gestation of the South American Community of Nations
meeting (prior to its transformation into the Union of SouthAmericanNations) in 2004 on the
grounds that it was an instrument created by Brazil to project and ensure its own power in
the region
References to Brazil arose in the context of a stagnating Mercosur Repeated promises
to give the bloc a new birth ndash the so called lsquorelanzamientorsquo ndash could not hide that in terms
of its economic significance Mercosur exhibited clear signs of exhaustion Moreover
similar views in both capitals about the lsquodevelopment modelrsquo did not help to give more
oxygen to the integration process The convergence between Kirchner and Lula on the
need to restore the lsquoindustrialistrsquo vision of integration as opposed to the lsquocommercialrsquo
approach of the nineties gave the impression that the two countries were ready to give its
ties a new strategic perspective However the bilateral agenda of lsquoproductiversquo integration
and Brasiliarsquos acceptance of the importance of the lsquore-industrializationrsquo of Argentina were
interpreted in Buenos Aires as a right to establish protectionist measures for Brazilian
exports that threatened the national industry and even more to ignore certain rules This
propensity for defensive policies not only emphasized the lsquofatiguersquo of Mercosur but also
contributed to the low willingness on the part of Brasilia to accept limits to the
autonomous management of its foreign policy Integration never ceased to be a goal for
Brazil but with time acquired a minor role in the priorities of its foreign policy Its
systematic rejection of a surrender of elements of sovereignty and autonomy to the
Mercosur was one of the determinants of the institutional weakness of the bloc Moreover
as Monica Hirst has put it lsquothe importance of the South American economies as a space for
a larger expansion of the Brazilian companies and the statersquos presence as an investor
(Petrobras) and financier (BNDES) [Brazilian Development Bank] became more
important for Brazilian material and strategic interests that the regional integration
process especially the Mercosurrsquo12 In short ambiguous perceptions coexisted in
Argentina with fluctuating bilateral relations The setting was propitious for the
reappearance of anti-Brazil perceptions in Argentina The pro-Brazilian episodic euphoria
of the years of Duhalde (Brazil as a lsquogreat strategic allyrsquo) turned into doubt and criticism in
the second phase which goes from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2006 Explicitly
and implicitly by both the Right and the Left an ambivalent feeling towards Brazil
unfolded albeit without the pugnacity of the past but nevertheless highlighting the
difficulties of embedding a culture of friendship between the two countries13
As in other debates in Argentina these visions were remnants of perceptions forged in
the seventies and nineties Kirchnerrsquos own ambiguities style and measures in government
did not help to build a more positive image of the role of Brazil for Argentina Several
groups located in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the business world think-tanks and the
media encouraged the counterbalancing of Brazil in lsquoSouth Americarsquo by means of a
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 257
lsquoLatin-Americanrsquo policy in which the role of Mexico was presented as crucial On the
other hand the vision of Chile as a partner for a more balanced South America and as an
economic model also regained strength in a wide spectrum of the Argentine elites covering
the Right to the centre-Left Chilersquos image was contrasted with that of Brazil The first was
seen essentially as lsquopredictablersquo and lsquoreasonablersquo while the second after the triumph of
Lularsquos Workers Party tended to be presented on the opposite side For some closer
relations with Chile would serve to offset the influence of Brazil in the Southern Cone ndash a
Santiago ndash Buenos Aires axis to limit the Brazilian aspiration to lead the area ndash while
others perceived the lsquoChilean wayrsquo as the best manner for taking a safe distance from
Mercosur which was perceived as an obstacle to establishing a flexible dense and fruitful
relationship with the rest of the world Finally the Left identified the relationship with
Venezuela as a balancing factor for restraining the power of Brazil
The third phase of Argentine ndash Brazilian relations started at the end of 2006 and
extends to the present An interesting twist can be observed in the direction of a more
positive perception of Brazil that clearly puts it in a central place for Argentina Two main
factors explain this change The first and most important is the growing international
relevance and regional weight of Brazil This process has led to the formation of a
widespread perception in Argentina that defines Brazil as lsquoinevitablersquo with a predominant
negative and generally pessimistic bias or as a country that is lsquoindispensablersquo in this case
emphasizing the possibility of building a common future and a strong cooperative
relationship The idea of Brazil as a necessary country is widely accepted but has
variously been accepted with resignation disgust and joy alternatively viewed as an
opportunity or severe challenge The lsquosuccessrsquo of Brazil is often contrasted with the
lsquofailuresrsquo of Argentina and generates different feelings such as pain envy nostalgia and
desire for emulation In any case the growth and rise of Brazil has converted it into a
model for almost everyone The second factor is the growing density of bilateral relations
As an example it is interesting to note that Brazil is already the fourth largest foreign
investor in Argentina after the United States Spain and China In 2010 24 of total
exports (42 industrial) and 82 of the cars manufactured in Argentina were directed to
the Brazilian market and 863492 Brazilian tourists visited the country14 At the same
time the expansion of Brazilian companies in Argentinarsquos productive activity and trade
has been impressive in the last decade
The main issue for the future then is how to live and interact with the lsquoinevitablersquo or
lsquoindispensablersquo country This convergence of perceptions regarding the centrality of Brazil
for Argentina only goes so far There is no agreement on the political economic and
strategic interests that should constitute the relationship with Brazil and consequently
about the best ways to put them into practice The transition from an entrenched culture of
rivalry to an incipient culture of friendship has lasted more than a quarter of a century
providing promising dividends for both nations and offering a good platform from which
to renegotiate the growing bilateral ties The world and the region and the national
situation of the two countries especially concerning the distribution of attributes of
economic power are now very different to the 1980s when the two countries took the first
steps to build a positive bilateral relationship The double condition of the Argentine ndash
Brazilian relationship that is its increasingly close and uneven character suggests that
there will be a complex combination of convergence and divergence between the two
nations Argentina and Brazil never were Pakistan and India in terms of antagonism and
sought in the past to jointly become an equivalent to the Franco ndash German axis for the
integration of South America an aspiration that today is unsustainable Circumstances
have changed and the condition of lsquoasymmetric interdependencersquo is recognized and
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
258 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
accepted in Argentina although not without the suspicions that characterize the attitudes
of the weaker party in a bilateral relationship In this context the main challenge for
Brasilia and Buenos Aires is to forge a realistic and positive lsquonew dealrsquo that contemplates
with its own specificity the bilateral relationship as well as Mercosur
In the end the above-mentioned three phases show the existence of both a changing
and intricate relationship If the theory of asymmetry is taken into consideration the first
move towards re-negotiating an unbalanced relationship should be initiated to a large
extent by the less powerful party In that sense it is yet unclear what the Argentine elites
(civilian and military economic and intellectual state-based and non-governmental) want
from relations with the continent (including the United States) the Spanish-speaking
region South America and finally Brazil Historically it has been quite difficult for
Argentines to have simultaneous positive relations with Washington and Brasilia In the
last two decades different opinions (sometimes personal more than collective) between
the lsquoLatin-Americanistsrsquo and the lsquoSouth-Americanistsrsquo favouring opposite strategic
options have been vocally expressed Currently several other countries in the area have
been increasing their leverage especially those facing the Pacific This phenomenon does
not go unnoticed by Argentine elites and is another source of domestic debate In this
dynamic and changing regional context Argentina has not been able to clearly establish
the goals and ambitions to guide its foreign policy towards the region and Brazil in
particular The response to this situation should be sought in essence in domestic politics
Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
Argentine ndash Chinese links should be placed in the larger context of China ndashLatin America
relations15 From a Latin American perspective Chinarsquos growing presence in the region
has been seen at least in the first decade of the twenty-first century as a promising trend
Chinarsquos ties with Latin America from the 1950s to the 1970s were marginal focused
primarily on cultural diplomacy driven by ideological motives and based on
revolutionary rhetoric This diplomatic strategy relied on the dividends of destabilization
was accompanied by anti-US slogans and was geared toward strengthening pro-Chinese
(and anti-Soviet) political parties and movements Chinarsquos international behaviour during
that period was that of a revisionist actor who sought to change the rules of the game
through aggressive means
In contrast Beijingrsquos approach to the region since the 1990s has involved an active
economic diplomacy characterized by pragmatism conciliation and stability Chinarsquos key
goal and main challenge has been to deepen its relations with the countries of Latin America
without irritating Washington Diplomatically China has proceeded in a judicious fashion
which explains in part why regional forces did not emerge to veto a policy of prudent and
consistent engagement toward China In addition Chinarsquos external diplomatic model has
been seductive to Latin America especially during the two administrations of George
W Bush in the United States multipolarism as opposed to unipolarism multilateralism as
opposed to unilateralism non-interference as opposed to interventionism soft power as
opposed to hard power pragmatism as opposed to ideologisation collaboration as opposed
to domination and persuasion as opposed to coercion All have been attractive notions in
Latin America Chinarsquos contemporary approach coincides with strong Latin American
traditions and aspirations and has become more captivating by virtue of the mishandling
disregard and thoughtlessness of US foreign policy towards the region
Nothing indicates that Latin America is geared towards accepting a paternalistic
externally-induced security dilemma with China and the region does not feel insecure visshy
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 259
a-vis Beijing despite certain ideologically-driven pressure groups in Washington
Moreover the Sino ndash Latin American ndash US triangular relationship has not engendered
major tensions or unmanageable challenges16 There is also nothing to suggest from a
regional viewpoint that Latin America ndash China ndash United States relations are destined to an
apocalyptic geopolitics approach based on an overblown fear of an alleged Chinese
takeover of the region China is not the Soviet Union post 911 is not a rehearsal of the
Cold War Washington is no longer at the pinnacle of world power and Latin America has
not collapsed after the Western economic and financial crisis began in 2008 There is also
no indication that Chinarsquos intention is to challenge the United States in the Western
Hemisphere In fact the Chinese government has actively sought to convince the United
States and the rest of the world that its intentions are benign thus the self-portrayal of a
peaceful rise
Chinarsquos behaviour in Latin America at the outset of the twenty-first century has been
far from that of a revisionist power On the one hand Beijingrsquos strategy has combined
necessity with opportunity and has been put into practice cautiously and diligently
curtailing the likelihood that the region will develop or adopt a policy aimed at rolling
back Chinarsquos presence On the other hand Latin Americarsquos relationship with Beijing is
more dependent on economic facts than political conceptions As there is no major
ideological concern in most countries about dealing with China the crucial element is the
material effect of Sino ndash Latin American linkages the level of dependency of the region
vis-a-vis China the degree of de-industrialization of the area derived from bilateral trade
and the ecological consequences of Chinese investment in Latin America17
This broader framework is essential to understand the dynamics of Argentinarsquos
relations with China in the larger context of Argentinendash Asian links Over the past two
decades the (re)emergence of China and the ascent of Asia have been a blessing for
Argentina Rising demand and higher prices for commodities have made it possible for
Argentina to elevate and diversify its trade flows with the East Since the 1990s and
despite the discernible differences in economic and foreign policies between Carlos
Menem and the Kirchners Argentina has developed a new pattern of production that has
led notwithstanding the crisis of 2001 to a reorganization of the economic base of the
country As noted by Pablo Gerchunoff lsquoIt is not just about the speed of exports there is
also a significant diversification traditional agriculture new agriculture industry energy
and mining concurred to modify the national economic landscapersquo18 In that context and
according to President Nestor Kirchner it was crucial lsquothrough China to search in Asia the
leverage to re-industrialize Argentinarsquo Economy not politics has been the driving force
to improve and extend Argentine relations with the East19
For the first time in more than seven decades Argentina has met a world that eagerly
requires what it produces The key driver of this demand is located in China but covers a
wide range of countries At present China is Argentinarsquos second largest trading partner
both in terms of the origin of imports and recipient of exports ndash in both dimensions after
Brazil and before the United States (See Table 1) Argentina meanwhile ranks third in the
list of the 15 major suppliers of agricultural products which supplied 90 per cent of
Chinese imports in 2010 United States (244) Brazil (136) and Argentina (73)
Other major suppliers were the European Union (6) Australia (5) and Malaysia (5)
By 2001 Argentine exports to China surpassed the US$1 billion barrier to hit US$1123
billion and imports totalled US$1066 billion Thus there was a small surplus of US$56
million in favour of Argentina By 2010 the commercial exchange was worth US$13795
billion totalling US$6117 billion in Argentine exports and US$7678 billion in Chinese
exports The result was a trade balance of US$1561 billion in Chinarsquos favour20 In the
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
Dow
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
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ber
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
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ber
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264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
Dow
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02
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
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ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
254 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
administration (2003 ndash 2007) However it found its greatest support in the material
conditions offered by a global and regional scenario that opened new and extraordinary
opportunities to the country China became a key trading partner and Brazil behaved as the
closest country to Argentina during and in the years following the crisis Meanwhile the
United States did not devote much time to Argentina let alone the wider South America
This fact was much more than the mere repetition of the United States tendency to put
Latin America in a secondary position in its foreign policy concerns It has to be situated in
the context of the long-term process of U S hegemonic decline in South America
especially in the Southern Cone countries
More specifically the low strategic relevance of Argentina for the United States helps
explain the growing indifference of Washington towards the country This fact is not new
but has intensified during this century Argentina does not have a prominent place in any of
the priority issues on the United Statesrsquo Latin American agenda trade migration drugs
terrorism and public safety and energy A second factor that also explains Washingtonrsquos
estrangement from Buenos Aires is a sequence of bilateral conflictive episodes of high-
voltage in which Argentina played or was seen to play the role of the actor less open to
dialogue and more prone to overacting Vocal criticism on the Argentine side first to the
IMF and later to Washingtonrsquos policies past and present became louder as Argentinarsquos
economy recovered The climax came at the Fourth Summit of the Americas held in Mar
del Plata on November 4 and 5 2005 where the then president of Argentina Nestor
Kirchner firmly opposed lsquoneoliberalismrsquo and the creation of a hemispheric free trade area
(FTAA) and accused the United States of having an lsquoanachronistic viewrsquo of the problems
afflicting developing countries Moreover he called on Bush to have a more responsible
leadership in Latin America by ending his support for policies that had lsquonot only led to
misery and poverty but also the fall of democratically elected governmentsrsquo9 Mar del Plata
marked a turn for the worse in bilateral relations and Washington was left with a bitter taste
that would linger until the end of George W Bushrsquos presidency Moreover while the so
called lsquoArgentine modelrsquo heterodox and lsquoneo-developmentalistrsquo in its economic
orientation did not fit into the category of lsquoLatin American radical populismsrsquo it was
viewed by US officials with suspicion and disgust Although Nestor Kirchner never
subscribed to the tenets of the lsquosocialism of the twenty-first centuryrsquo Washington watched
with dissatisfaction the close links established betweenArgentina and Venezuelarsquos Chavez
After the inauguration of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner to the presidency of
Argentina in December 2007 new conflicts contributed to deepen lsquomutual detachmentrsquo
Barack Obamarsquos arrival in office in January 2008 was considered by Buenos Aires as an
opportunity to open a new dialogue Moreover the financial crisis in the United States
merely reinforced government beliefs and policies on the role of the state in the economy
and on the need to reform the multilateral lending agencies However with its first
domestic and foreign policies the Obama Administration soon showed that the ideological
affinities world views and purposes were less similar to what at first could have been
imagined at the Casa Rosada President Fernandez de Kirchner rapidly moved from initial
lsquoadmirationrsquo to conclude that President Obama lsquohad not fulfilled the expectationsrsquo and that
his Administration lsquoignores the needs of the Southern Conersquo10
Over the years the distancing on global and regional issues became apparent the threat
and the use of force in the Middle East Central Asia and Northern Africa the conception
and practice of the lsquoResponsibility to Protectrsquo the statehood condition of Palestine the level
and scope of protectionism the promotion and enforcement of stronger financial regulations
worldwide the approach vis-a-vis specific countries such as Iran the half-century old
Cuban blockade the debate and reform over crucial aspects of the Inter-American system
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 255
such as the Inter-American Defence Board and the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal
assistance the differences in views and attitudes vis-a-vis a sort of lsquoneo-coupismrsquo
(neogolpismo) in the region such as in Venezuela (2002) Honduras (2009) Ecuador (2010) and Paraguay (2012) and the broadening and militarization of the lsquowar on drugsrsquo However
a simultaneous convergence on important world and continental topics has been evident
acting in favour of nuclear non-proliferation avoiding the presence of transnational
terrorism in the area (for example in the Tri-border zone of Argentina Brazil and
Paraguay) supporting the human rights component of the Inter-American system and
participating in humanitarian missions such as the one in Haiti
In brief by the end of the first year of the second mandate of President Fernandez de
Kirchner and after the re-election of President Obama for a second term the bilateral
relationship remained characterized by little presidential dialogue low shared-
expectations outspoken differences and specific cooperation only on issues of common
interest Key coincidences and several major differences have not been institutionalized in
a general framework by which the mixture of consensus and dissent could be managed On
many occasions first and second-level government officials in Washington and Buenos
Aires overreacted to an incident or underplayed an accord In most cases the perception at
the highest level of each government was one of misunderstanding tiredness and
discomfort
Within this context the fact that Argentina will occupy a non-permanent seat on the
UN Security Council in 2013 ndash 2014 where critical issues will be on the agenda (some of
significance for Buenos Aires including the Malvinas-Falkland question as well as the
lsquovulture fundsrsquo suing Argentina in US courts regarding the 2001 debt default) Requiring
Washington to play a positive role may generate a situation that pushes both countries to
at least devise an improved consultative mechanism in order to handle their relationship
with more maturity and realism
Relations between Argentina and Brazil have been marked by the increase in
asymmetries between the two countries in terms of capabilities as well as in international
projection Since the crisis of 2001 Argentina has undergone a gradual process of
economic and self-esteem recovery whereas Brazil has consolidated its position as an
emerging power both regionally and globally These developments together with the loss
of US centrality in South America and Mexicorsquos growing links and interdependence with
North America have dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape in Latin America
particularly in South America
Three distinct phases can be highlighted in the Argentine-Brazilian relationship
since the beginning of the twenty-first century11 The first extends from the crisis of
2001 through 2003 and is characterized by the growing importance given to Brazil by
the elites and public opinion in Argentina While other governments were abandoning
Argentina the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Administration expressed solidarity with
the government led by Eduardo Duhalde during the time of crisis arguing that the
International Monetary Fund could not be insensitive to the serious situation which
afflicted Argentina and said that Brazil continued to trust in its main Mercosur
trading partner Later with Lula already in the Planalto the idea of Brazil as
lsquoalternative development modelrsquo to the one implemented in the 1990s and as the
lsquomain cardrsquo of Argentinarsquos international insertion became dominant in Buenos Aires
Nestor Kirchner took office in May 2003 stating Brazilrsquos importance for Argentina
and emphasized the need to give more weight and density to a common strategic
project However this positive vision of the bilateral relationship was expressed at the
beginning of a phase in which Argentina was leaving behind the crisis With gradual
Dow
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
256 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
recovery came the revival in Argentina of an ambiguity vis-a-vis Brazil Although
Brazil was seen as a key player and partner it also raised suspicions and doubts
throughout the whole Argentine political spectrum Its status as an emerging power
produced concerns For the Right in Argentina the Lula presidency gave reasons to
refloat the perception of Brazil as an lsquoincorrigiblersquo country The different assessments of
the strategic condition of South America vis-a-vis Latin America also reappeared and with it
fears of a possible Brazilian hegemony in South America The government of Fernando de la
Rua (1999ndash2001) had had a preventive and defensive attitude about the political idea of South
America proposed by Brazil ndash a political and economic geographic area with its own
peculiarities and different from the lsquoLatin America of the Northrsquo The government of Nestor
Kirchner also adopted a reluctant position An eloquent example of this attitudewas President
Kirchnerrsquos decision not to attend the gestation of the South American Community of Nations
meeting (prior to its transformation into the Union of SouthAmericanNations) in 2004 on the
grounds that it was an instrument created by Brazil to project and ensure its own power in
the region
References to Brazil arose in the context of a stagnating Mercosur Repeated promises
to give the bloc a new birth ndash the so called lsquorelanzamientorsquo ndash could not hide that in terms
of its economic significance Mercosur exhibited clear signs of exhaustion Moreover
similar views in both capitals about the lsquodevelopment modelrsquo did not help to give more
oxygen to the integration process The convergence between Kirchner and Lula on the
need to restore the lsquoindustrialistrsquo vision of integration as opposed to the lsquocommercialrsquo
approach of the nineties gave the impression that the two countries were ready to give its
ties a new strategic perspective However the bilateral agenda of lsquoproductiversquo integration
and Brasiliarsquos acceptance of the importance of the lsquore-industrializationrsquo of Argentina were
interpreted in Buenos Aires as a right to establish protectionist measures for Brazilian
exports that threatened the national industry and even more to ignore certain rules This
propensity for defensive policies not only emphasized the lsquofatiguersquo of Mercosur but also
contributed to the low willingness on the part of Brasilia to accept limits to the
autonomous management of its foreign policy Integration never ceased to be a goal for
Brazil but with time acquired a minor role in the priorities of its foreign policy Its
systematic rejection of a surrender of elements of sovereignty and autonomy to the
Mercosur was one of the determinants of the institutional weakness of the bloc Moreover
as Monica Hirst has put it lsquothe importance of the South American economies as a space for
a larger expansion of the Brazilian companies and the statersquos presence as an investor
(Petrobras) and financier (BNDES) [Brazilian Development Bank] became more
important for Brazilian material and strategic interests that the regional integration
process especially the Mercosurrsquo12 In short ambiguous perceptions coexisted in
Argentina with fluctuating bilateral relations The setting was propitious for the
reappearance of anti-Brazil perceptions in Argentina The pro-Brazilian episodic euphoria
of the years of Duhalde (Brazil as a lsquogreat strategic allyrsquo) turned into doubt and criticism in
the second phase which goes from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2006 Explicitly
and implicitly by both the Right and the Left an ambivalent feeling towards Brazil
unfolded albeit without the pugnacity of the past but nevertheless highlighting the
difficulties of embedding a culture of friendship between the two countries13
As in other debates in Argentina these visions were remnants of perceptions forged in
the seventies and nineties Kirchnerrsquos own ambiguities style and measures in government
did not help to build a more positive image of the role of Brazil for Argentina Several
groups located in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the business world think-tanks and the
media encouraged the counterbalancing of Brazil in lsquoSouth Americarsquo by means of a
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 257
lsquoLatin-Americanrsquo policy in which the role of Mexico was presented as crucial On the
other hand the vision of Chile as a partner for a more balanced South America and as an
economic model also regained strength in a wide spectrum of the Argentine elites covering
the Right to the centre-Left Chilersquos image was contrasted with that of Brazil The first was
seen essentially as lsquopredictablersquo and lsquoreasonablersquo while the second after the triumph of
Lularsquos Workers Party tended to be presented on the opposite side For some closer
relations with Chile would serve to offset the influence of Brazil in the Southern Cone ndash a
Santiago ndash Buenos Aires axis to limit the Brazilian aspiration to lead the area ndash while
others perceived the lsquoChilean wayrsquo as the best manner for taking a safe distance from
Mercosur which was perceived as an obstacle to establishing a flexible dense and fruitful
relationship with the rest of the world Finally the Left identified the relationship with
Venezuela as a balancing factor for restraining the power of Brazil
The third phase of Argentine ndash Brazilian relations started at the end of 2006 and
extends to the present An interesting twist can be observed in the direction of a more
positive perception of Brazil that clearly puts it in a central place for Argentina Two main
factors explain this change The first and most important is the growing international
relevance and regional weight of Brazil This process has led to the formation of a
widespread perception in Argentina that defines Brazil as lsquoinevitablersquo with a predominant
negative and generally pessimistic bias or as a country that is lsquoindispensablersquo in this case
emphasizing the possibility of building a common future and a strong cooperative
relationship The idea of Brazil as a necessary country is widely accepted but has
variously been accepted with resignation disgust and joy alternatively viewed as an
opportunity or severe challenge The lsquosuccessrsquo of Brazil is often contrasted with the
lsquofailuresrsquo of Argentina and generates different feelings such as pain envy nostalgia and
desire for emulation In any case the growth and rise of Brazil has converted it into a
model for almost everyone The second factor is the growing density of bilateral relations
As an example it is interesting to note that Brazil is already the fourth largest foreign
investor in Argentina after the United States Spain and China In 2010 24 of total
exports (42 industrial) and 82 of the cars manufactured in Argentina were directed to
the Brazilian market and 863492 Brazilian tourists visited the country14 At the same
time the expansion of Brazilian companies in Argentinarsquos productive activity and trade
has been impressive in the last decade
The main issue for the future then is how to live and interact with the lsquoinevitablersquo or
lsquoindispensablersquo country This convergence of perceptions regarding the centrality of Brazil
for Argentina only goes so far There is no agreement on the political economic and
strategic interests that should constitute the relationship with Brazil and consequently
about the best ways to put them into practice The transition from an entrenched culture of
rivalry to an incipient culture of friendship has lasted more than a quarter of a century
providing promising dividends for both nations and offering a good platform from which
to renegotiate the growing bilateral ties The world and the region and the national
situation of the two countries especially concerning the distribution of attributes of
economic power are now very different to the 1980s when the two countries took the first
steps to build a positive bilateral relationship The double condition of the Argentine ndash
Brazilian relationship that is its increasingly close and uneven character suggests that
there will be a complex combination of convergence and divergence between the two
nations Argentina and Brazil never were Pakistan and India in terms of antagonism and
sought in the past to jointly become an equivalent to the Franco ndash German axis for the
integration of South America an aspiration that today is unsustainable Circumstances
have changed and the condition of lsquoasymmetric interdependencersquo is recognized and
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
258 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
accepted in Argentina although not without the suspicions that characterize the attitudes
of the weaker party in a bilateral relationship In this context the main challenge for
Brasilia and Buenos Aires is to forge a realistic and positive lsquonew dealrsquo that contemplates
with its own specificity the bilateral relationship as well as Mercosur
In the end the above-mentioned three phases show the existence of both a changing
and intricate relationship If the theory of asymmetry is taken into consideration the first
move towards re-negotiating an unbalanced relationship should be initiated to a large
extent by the less powerful party In that sense it is yet unclear what the Argentine elites
(civilian and military economic and intellectual state-based and non-governmental) want
from relations with the continent (including the United States) the Spanish-speaking
region South America and finally Brazil Historically it has been quite difficult for
Argentines to have simultaneous positive relations with Washington and Brasilia In the
last two decades different opinions (sometimes personal more than collective) between
the lsquoLatin-Americanistsrsquo and the lsquoSouth-Americanistsrsquo favouring opposite strategic
options have been vocally expressed Currently several other countries in the area have
been increasing their leverage especially those facing the Pacific This phenomenon does
not go unnoticed by Argentine elites and is another source of domestic debate In this
dynamic and changing regional context Argentina has not been able to clearly establish
the goals and ambitions to guide its foreign policy towards the region and Brazil in
particular The response to this situation should be sought in essence in domestic politics
Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
Argentine ndash Chinese links should be placed in the larger context of China ndashLatin America
relations15 From a Latin American perspective Chinarsquos growing presence in the region
has been seen at least in the first decade of the twenty-first century as a promising trend
Chinarsquos ties with Latin America from the 1950s to the 1970s were marginal focused
primarily on cultural diplomacy driven by ideological motives and based on
revolutionary rhetoric This diplomatic strategy relied on the dividends of destabilization
was accompanied by anti-US slogans and was geared toward strengthening pro-Chinese
(and anti-Soviet) political parties and movements Chinarsquos international behaviour during
that period was that of a revisionist actor who sought to change the rules of the game
through aggressive means
In contrast Beijingrsquos approach to the region since the 1990s has involved an active
economic diplomacy characterized by pragmatism conciliation and stability Chinarsquos key
goal and main challenge has been to deepen its relations with the countries of Latin America
without irritating Washington Diplomatically China has proceeded in a judicious fashion
which explains in part why regional forces did not emerge to veto a policy of prudent and
consistent engagement toward China In addition Chinarsquos external diplomatic model has
been seductive to Latin America especially during the two administrations of George
W Bush in the United States multipolarism as opposed to unipolarism multilateralism as
opposed to unilateralism non-interference as opposed to interventionism soft power as
opposed to hard power pragmatism as opposed to ideologisation collaboration as opposed
to domination and persuasion as opposed to coercion All have been attractive notions in
Latin America Chinarsquos contemporary approach coincides with strong Latin American
traditions and aspirations and has become more captivating by virtue of the mishandling
disregard and thoughtlessness of US foreign policy towards the region
Nothing indicates that Latin America is geared towards accepting a paternalistic
externally-induced security dilemma with China and the region does not feel insecure visshy
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 259
a-vis Beijing despite certain ideologically-driven pressure groups in Washington
Moreover the Sino ndash Latin American ndash US triangular relationship has not engendered
major tensions or unmanageable challenges16 There is also nothing to suggest from a
regional viewpoint that Latin America ndash China ndash United States relations are destined to an
apocalyptic geopolitics approach based on an overblown fear of an alleged Chinese
takeover of the region China is not the Soviet Union post 911 is not a rehearsal of the
Cold War Washington is no longer at the pinnacle of world power and Latin America has
not collapsed after the Western economic and financial crisis began in 2008 There is also
no indication that Chinarsquos intention is to challenge the United States in the Western
Hemisphere In fact the Chinese government has actively sought to convince the United
States and the rest of the world that its intentions are benign thus the self-portrayal of a
peaceful rise
Chinarsquos behaviour in Latin America at the outset of the twenty-first century has been
far from that of a revisionist power On the one hand Beijingrsquos strategy has combined
necessity with opportunity and has been put into practice cautiously and diligently
curtailing the likelihood that the region will develop or adopt a policy aimed at rolling
back Chinarsquos presence On the other hand Latin Americarsquos relationship with Beijing is
more dependent on economic facts than political conceptions As there is no major
ideological concern in most countries about dealing with China the crucial element is the
material effect of Sino ndash Latin American linkages the level of dependency of the region
vis-a-vis China the degree of de-industrialization of the area derived from bilateral trade
and the ecological consequences of Chinese investment in Latin America17
This broader framework is essential to understand the dynamics of Argentinarsquos
relations with China in the larger context of Argentinendash Asian links Over the past two
decades the (re)emergence of China and the ascent of Asia have been a blessing for
Argentina Rising demand and higher prices for commodities have made it possible for
Argentina to elevate and diversify its trade flows with the East Since the 1990s and
despite the discernible differences in economic and foreign policies between Carlos
Menem and the Kirchners Argentina has developed a new pattern of production that has
led notwithstanding the crisis of 2001 to a reorganization of the economic base of the
country As noted by Pablo Gerchunoff lsquoIt is not just about the speed of exports there is
also a significant diversification traditional agriculture new agriculture industry energy
and mining concurred to modify the national economic landscapersquo18 In that context and
according to President Nestor Kirchner it was crucial lsquothrough China to search in Asia the
leverage to re-industrialize Argentinarsquo Economy not politics has been the driving force
to improve and extend Argentine relations with the East19
For the first time in more than seven decades Argentina has met a world that eagerly
requires what it produces The key driver of this demand is located in China but covers a
wide range of countries At present China is Argentinarsquos second largest trading partner
both in terms of the origin of imports and recipient of exports ndash in both dimensions after
Brazil and before the United States (See Table 1) Argentina meanwhile ranks third in the
list of the 15 major suppliers of agricultural products which supplied 90 per cent of
Chinese imports in 2010 United States (244) Brazil (136) and Argentina (73)
Other major suppliers were the European Union (6) Australia (5) and Malaysia (5)
By 2001 Argentine exports to China surpassed the US$1 billion barrier to hit US$1123
billion and imports totalled US$1066 billion Thus there was a small surplus of US$56
million in favour of Argentina By 2010 the commercial exchange was worth US$13795
billion totalling US$6117 billion in Argentine exports and US$7678 billion in Chinese
exports The result was a trade balance of US$1561 billion in Chinarsquos favour20 In the
Dow
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ovem
ber
2014
260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
Dow
nloa
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by [
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] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
Dow
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ded
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 255
such as the Inter-American Defence Board and the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal
assistance the differences in views and attitudes vis-a-vis a sort of lsquoneo-coupismrsquo
(neogolpismo) in the region such as in Venezuela (2002) Honduras (2009) Ecuador (2010) and Paraguay (2012) and the broadening and militarization of the lsquowar on drugsrsquo However
a simultaneous convergence on important world and continental topics has been evident
acting in favour of nuclear non-proliferation avoiding the presence of transnational
terrorism in the area (for example in the Tri-border zone of Argentina Brazil and
Paraguay) supporting the human rights component of the Inter-American system and
participating in humanitarian missions such as the one in Haiti
In brief by the end of the first year of the second mandate of President Fernandez de
Kirchner and after the re-election of President Obama for a second term the bilateral
relationship remained characterized by little presidential dialogue low shared-
expectations outspoken differences and specific cooperation only on issues of common
interest Key coincidences and several major differences have not been institutionalized in
a general framework by which the mixture of consensus and dissent could be managed On
many occasions first and second-level government officials in Washington and Buenos
Aires overreacted to an incident or underplayed an accord In most cases the perception at
the highest level of each government was one of misunderstanding tiredness and
discomfort
Within this context the fact that Argentina will occupy a non-permanent seat on the
UN Security Council in 2013 ndash 2014 where critical issues will be on the agenda (some of
significance for Buenos Aires including the Malvinas-Falkland question as well as the
lsquovulture fundsrsquo suing Argentina in US courts regarding the 2001 debt default) Requiring
Washington to play a positive role may generate a situation that pushes both countries to
at least devise an improved consultative mechanism in order to handle their relationship
with more maturity and realism
Relations between Argentina and Brazil have been marked by the increase in
asymmetries between the two countries in terms of capabilities as well as in international
projection Since the crisis of 2001 Argentina has undergone a gradual process of
economic and self-esteem recovery whereas Brazil has consolidated its position as an
emerging power both regionally and globally These developments together with the loss
of US centrality in South America and Mexicorsquos growing links and interdependence with
North America have dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape in Latin America
particularly in South America
Three distinct phases can be highlighted in the Argentine-Brazilian relationship
since the beginning of the twenty-first century11 The first extends from the crisis of
2001 through 2003 and is characterized by the growing importance given to Brazil by
the elites and public opinion in Argentina While other governments were abandoning
Argentina the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Administration expressed solidarity with
the government led by Eduardo Duhalde during the time of crisis arguing that the
International Monetary Fund could not be insensitive to the serious situation which
afflicted Argentina and said that Brazil continued to trust in its main Mercosur
trading partner Later with Lula already in the Planalto the idea of Brazil as
lsquoalternative development modelrsquo to the one implemented in the 1990s and as the
lsquomain cardrsquo of Argentinarsquos international insertion became dominant in Buenos Aires
Nestor Kirchner took office in May 2003 stating Brazilrsquos importance for Argentina
and emphasized the need to give more weight and density to a common strategic
project However this positive vision of the bilateral relationship was expressed at the
beginning of a phase in which Argentina was leaving behind the crisis With gradual
Dow
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ovem
ber
2014
256 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
recovery came the revival in Argentina of an ambiguity vis-a-vis Brazil Although
Brazil was seen as a key player and partner it also raised suspicions and doubts
throughout the whole Argentine political spectrum Its status as an emerging power
produced concerns For the Right in Argentina the Lula presidency gave reasons to
refloat the perception of Brazil as an lsquoincorrigiblersquo country The different assessments of
the strategic condition of South America vis-a-vis Latin America also reappeared and with it
fears of a possible Brazilian hegemony in South America The government of Fernando de la
Rua (1999ndash2001) had had a preventive and defensive attitude about the political idea of South
America proposed by Brazil ndash a political and economic geographic area with its own
peculiarities and different from the lsquoLatin America of the Northrsquo The government of Nestor
Kirchner also adopted a reluctant position An eloquent example of this attitudewas President
Kirchnerrsquos decision not to attend the gestation of the South American Community of Nations
meeting (prior to its transformation into the Union of SouthAmericanNations) in 2004 on the
grounds that it was an instrument created by Brazil to project and ensure its own power in
the region
References to Brazil arose in the context of a stagnating Mercosur Repeated promises
to give the bloc a new birth ndash the so called lsquorelanzamientorsquo ndash could not hide that in terms
of its economic significance Mercosur exhibited clear signs of exhaustion Moreover
similar views in both capitals about the lsquodevelopment modelrsquo did not help to give more
oxygen to the integration process The convergence between Kirchner and Lula on the
need to restore the lsquoindustrialistrsquo vision of integration as opposed to the lsquocommercialrsquo
approach of the nineties gave the impression that the two countries were ready to give its
ties a new strategic perspective However the bilateral agenda of lsquoproductiversquo integration
and Brasiliarsquos acceptance of the importance of the lsquore-industrializationrsquo of Argentina were
interpreted in Buenos Aires as a right to establish protectionist measures for Brazilian
exports that threatened the national industry and even more to ignore certain rules This
propensity for defensive policies not only emphasized the lsquofatiguersquo of Mercosur but also
contributed to the low willingness on the part of Brasilia to accept limits to the
autonomous management of its foreign policy Integration never ceased to be a goal for
Brazil but with time acquired a minor role in the priorities of its foreign policy Its
systematic rejection of a surrender of elements of sovereignty and autonomy to the
Mercosur was one of the determinants of the institutional weakness of the bloc Moreover
as Monica Hirst has put it lsquothe importance of the South American economies as a space for
a larger expansion of the Brazilian companies and the statersquos presence as an investor
(Petrobras) and financier (BNDES) [Brazilian Development Bank] became more
important for Brazilian material and strategic interests that the regional integration
process especially the Mercosurrsquo12 In short ambiguous perceptions coexisted in
Argentina with fluctuating bilateral relations The setting was propitious for the
reappearance of anti-Brazil perceptions in Argentina The pro-Brazilian episodic euphoria
of the years of Duhalde (Brazil as a lsquogreat strategic allyrsquo) turned into doubt and criticism in
the second phase which goes from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2006 Explicitly
and implicitly by both the Right and the Left an ambivalent feeling towards Brazil
unfolded albeit without the pugnacity of the past but nevertheless highlighting the
difficulties of embedding a culture of friendship between the two countries13
As in other debates in Argentina these visions were remnants of perceptions forged in
the seventies and nineties Kirchnerrsquos own ambiguities style and measures in government
did not help to build a more positive image of the role of Brazil for Argentina Several
groups located in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the business world think-tanks and the
media encouraged the counterbalancing of Brazil in lsquoSouth Americarsquo by means of a
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 257
lsquoLatin-Americanrsquo policy in which the role of Mexico was presented as crucial On the
other hand the vision of Chile as a partner for a more balanced South America and as an
economic model also regained strength in a wide spectrum of the Argentine elites covering
the Right to the centre-Left Chilersquos image was contrasted with that of Brazil The first was
seen essentially as lsquopredictablersquo and lsquoreasonablersquo while the second after the triumph of
Lularsquos Workers Party tended to be presented on the opposite side For some closer
relations with Chile would serve to offset the influence of Brazil in the Southern Cone ndash a
Santiago ndash Buenos Aires axis to limit the Brazilian aspiration to lead the area ndash while
others perceived the lsquoChilean wayrsquo as the best manner for taking a safe distance from
Mercosur which was perceived as an obstacle to establishing a flexible dense and fruitful
relationship with the rest of the world Finally the Left identified the relationship with
Venezuela as a balancing factor for restraining the power of Brazil
The third phase of Argentine ndash Brazilian relations started at the end of 2006 and
extends to the present An interesting twist can be observed in the direction of a more
positive perception of Brazil that clearly puts it in a central place for Argentina Two main
factors explain this change The first and most important is the growing international
relevance and regional weight of Brazil This process has led to the formation of a
widespread perception in Argentina that defines Brazil as lsquoinevitablersquo with a predominant
negative and generally pessimistic bias or as a country that is lsquoindispensablersquo in this case
emphasizing the possibility of building a common future and a strong cooperative
relationship The idea of Brazil as a necessary country is widely accepted but has
variously been accepted with resignation disgust and joy alternatively viewed as an
opportunity or severe challenge The lsquosuccessrsquo of Brazil is often contrasted with the
lsquofailuresrsquo of Argentina and generates different feelings such as pain envy nostalgia and
desire for emulation In any case the growth and rise of Brazil has converted it into a
model for almost everyone The second factor is the growing density of bilateral relations
As an example it is interesting to note that Brazil is already the fourth largest foreign
investor in Argentina after the United States Spain and China In 2010 24 of total
exports (42 industrial) and 82 of the cars manufactured in Argentina were directed to
the Brazilian market and 863492 Brazilian tourists visited the country14 At the same
time the expansion of Brazilian companies in Argentinarsquos productive activity and trade
has been impressive in the last decade
The main issue for the future then is how to live and interact with the lsquoinevitablersquo or
lsquoindispensablersquo country This convergence of perceptions regarding the centrality of Brazil
for Argentina only goes so far There is no agreement on the political economic and
strategic interests that should constitute the relationship with Brazil and consequently
about the best ways to put them into practice The transition from an entrenched culture of
rivalry to an incipient culture of friendship has lasted more than a quarter of a century
providing promising dividends for both nations and offering a good platform from which
to renegotiate the growing bilateral ties The world and the region and the national
situation of the two countries especially concerning the distribution of attributes of
economic power are now very different to the 1980s when the two countries took the first
steps to build a positive bilateral relationship The double condition of the Argentine ndash
Brazilian relationship that is its increasingly close and uneven character suggests that
there will be a complex combination of convergence and divergence between the two
nations Argentina and Brazil never were Pakistan and India in terms of antagonism and
sought in the past to jointly become an equivalent to the Franco ndash German axis for the
integration of South America an aspiration that today is unsustainable Circumstances
have changed and the condition of lsquoasymmetric interdependencersquo is recognized and
Dow
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
258 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
accepted in Argentina although not without the suspicions that characterize the attitudes
of the weaker party in a bilateral relationship In this context the main challenge for
Brasilia and Buenos Aires is to forge a realistic and positive lsquonew dealrsquo that contemplates
with its own specificity the bilateral relationship as well as Mercosur
In the end the above-mentioned three phases show the existence of both a changing
and intricate relationship If the theory of asymmetry is taken into consideration the first
move towards re-negotiating an unbalanced relationship should be initiated to a large
extent by the less powerful party In that sense it is yet unclear what the Argentine elites
(civilian and military economic and intellectual state-based and non-governmental) want
from relations with the continent (including the United States) the Spanish-speaking
region South America and finally Brazil Historically it has been quite difficult for
Argentines to have simultaneous positive relations with Washington and Brasilia In the
last two decades different opinions (sometimes personal more than collective) between
the lsquoLatin-Americanistsrsquo and the lsquoSouth-Americanistsrsquo favouring opposite strategic
options have been vocally expressed Currently several other countries in the area have
been increasing their leverage especially those facing the Pacific This phenomenon does
not go unnoticed by Argentine elites and is another source of domestic debate In this
dynamic and changing regional context Argentina has not been able to clearly establish
the goals and ambitions to guide its foreign policy towards the region and Brazil in
particular The response to this situation should be sought in essence in domestic politics
Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
Argentine ndash Chinese links should be placed in the larger context of China ndashLatin America
relations15 From a Latin American perspective Chinarsquos growing presence in the region
has been seen at least in the first decade of the twenty-first century as a promising trend
Chinarsquos ties with Latin America from the 1950s to the 1970s were marginal focused
primarily on cultural diplomacy driven by ideological motives and based on
revolutionary rhetoric This diplomatic strategy relied on the dividends of destabilization
was accompanied by anti-US slogans and was geared toward strengthening pro-Chinese
(and anti-Soviet) political parties and movements Chinarsquos international behaviour during
that period was that of a revisionist actor who sought to change the rules of the game
through aggressive means
In contrast Beijingrsquos approach to the region since the 1990s has involved an active
economic diplomacy characterized by pragmatism conciliation and stability Chinarsquos key
goal and main challenge has been to deepen its relations with the countries of Latin America
without irritating Washington Diplomatically China has proceeded in a judicious fashion
which explains in part why regional forces did not emerge to veto a policy of prudent and
consistent engagement toward China In addition Chinarsquos external diplomatic model has
been seductive to Latin America especially during the two administrations of George
W Bush in the United States multipolarism as opposed to unipolarism multilateralism as
opposed to unilateralism non-interference as opposed to interventionism soft power as
opposed to hard power pragmatism as opposed to ideologisation collaboration as opposed
to domination and persuasion as opposed to coercion All have been attractive notions in
Latin America Chinarsquos contemporary approach coincides with strong Latin American
traditions and aspirations and has become more captivating by virtue of the mishandling
disregard and thoughtlessness of US foreign policy towards the region
Nothing indicates that Latin America is geared towards accepting a paternalistic
externally-induced security dilemma with China and the region does not feel insecure visshy
Dow
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 259
a-vis Beijing despite certain ideologically-driven pressure groups in Washington
Moreover the Sino ndash Latin American ndash US triangular relationship has not engendered
major tensions or unmanageable challenges16 There is also nothing to suggest from a
regional viewpoint that Latin America ndash China ndash United States relations are destined to an
apocalyptic geopolitics approach based on an overblown fear of an alleged Chinese
takeover of the region China is not the Soviet Union post 911 is not a rehearsal of the
Cold War Washington is no longer at the pinnacle of world power and Latin America has
not collapsed after the Western economic and financial crisis began in 2008 There is also
no indication that Chinarsquos intention is to challenge the United States in the Western
Hemisphere In fact the Chinese government has actively sought to convince the United
States and the rest of the world that its intentions are benign thus the self-portrayal of a
peaceful rise
Chinarsquos behaviour in Latin America at the outset of the twenty-first century has been
far from that of a revisionist power On the one hand Beijingrsquos strategy has combined
necessity with opportunity and has been put into practice cautiously and diligently
curtailing the likelihood that the region will develop or adopt a policy aimed at rolling
back Chinarsquos presence On the other hand Latin Americarsquos relationship with Beijing is
more dependent on economic facts than political conceptions As there is no major
ideological concern in most countries about dealing with China the crucial element is the
material effect of Sino ndash Latin American linkages the level of dependency of the region
vis-a-vis China the degree of de-industrialization of the area derived from bilateral trade
and the ecological consequences of Chinese investment in Latin America17
This broader framework is essential to understand the dynamics of Argentinarsquos
relations with China in the larger context of Argentinendash Asian links Over the past two
decades the (re)emergence of China and the ascent of Asia have been a blessing for
Argentina Rising demand and higher prices for commodities have made it possible for
Argentina to elevate and diversify its trade flows with the East Since the 1990s and
despite the discernible differences in economic and foreign policies between Carlos
Menem and the Kirchners Argentina has developed a new pattern of production that has
led notwithstanding the crisis of 2001 to a reorganization of the economic base of the
country As noted by Pablo Gerchunoff lsquoIt is not just about the speed of exports there is
also a significant diversification traditional agriculture new agriculture industry energy
and mining concurred to modify the national economic landscapersquo18 In that context and
according to President Nestor Kirchner it was crucial lsquothrough China to search in Asia the
leverage to re-industrialize Argentinarsquo Economy not politics has been the driving force
to improve and extend Argentine relations with the East19
For the first time in more than seven decades Argentina has met a world that eagerly
requires what it produces The key driver of this demand is located in China but covers a
wide range of countries At present China is Argentinarsquos second largest trading partner
both in terms of the origin of imports and recipient of exports ndash in both dimensions after
Brazil and before the United States (See Table 1) Argentina meanwhile ranks third in the
list of the 15 major suppliers of agricultural products which supplied 90 per cent of
Chinese imports in 2010 United States (244) Brazil (136) and Argentina (73)
Other major suppliers were the European Union (6) Australia (5) and Malaysia (5)
By 2001 Argentine exports to China surpassed the US$1 billion barrier to hit US$1123
billion and imports totalled US$1066 billion Thus there was a small surplus of US$56
million in favour of Argentina By 2010 the commercial exchange was worth US$13795
billion totalling US$6117 billion in Argentine exports and US$7678 billion in Chinese
exports The result was a trade balance of US$1561 billion in Chinarsquos favour20 In the
Dow
nloa
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
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ber
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
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ber
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262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
Dow
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
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02
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ovem
ber
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264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
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by [
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
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ded
by [
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
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] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
256 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
recovery came the revival in Argentina of an ambiguity vis-a-vis Brazil Although
Brazil was seen as a key player and partner it also raised suspicions and doubts
throughout the whole Argentine political spectrum Its status as an emerging power
produced concerns For the Right in Argentina the Lula presidency gave reasons to
refloat the perception of Brazil as an lsquoincorrigiblersquo country The different assessments of
the strategic condition of South America vis-a-vis Latin America also reappeared and with it
fears of a possible Brazilian hegemony in South America The government of Fernando de la
Rua (1999ndash2001) had had a preventive and defensive attitude about the political idea of South
America proposed by Brazil ndash a political and economic geographic area with its own
peculiarities and different from the lsquoLatin America of the Northrsquo The government of Nestor
Kirchner also adopted a reluctant position An eloquent example of this attitudewas President
Kirchnerrsquos decision not to attend the gestation of the South American Community of Nations
meeting (prior to its transformation into the Union of SouthAmericanNations) in 2004 on the
grounds that it was an instrument created by Brazil to project and ensure its own power in
the region
References to Brazil arose in the context of a stagnating Mercosur Repeated promises
to give the bloc a new birth ndash the so called lsquorelanzamientorsquo ndash could not hide that in terms
of its economic significance Mercosur exhibited clear signs of exhaustion Moreover
similar views in both capitals about the lsquodevelopment modelrsquo did not help to give more
oxygen to the integration process The convergence between Kirchner and Lula on the
need to restore the lsquoindustrialistrsquo vision of integration as opposed to the lsquocommercialrsquo
approach of the nineties gave the impression that the two countries were ready to give its
ties a new strategic perspective However the bilateral agenda of lsquoproductiversquo integration
and Brasiliarsquos acceptance of the importance of the lsquore-industrializationrsquo of Argentina were
interpreted in Buenos Aires as a right to establish protectionist measures for Brazilian
exports that threatened the national industry and even more to ignore certain rules This
propensity for defensive policies not only emphasized the lsquofatiguersquo of Mercosur but also
contributed to the low willingness on the part of Brasilia to accept limits to the
autonomous management of its foreign policy Integration never ceased to be a goal for
Brazil but with time acquired a minor role in the priorities of its foreign policy Its
systematic rejection of a surrender of elements of sovereignty and autonomy to the
Mercosur was one of the determinants of the institutional weakness of the bloc Moreover
as Monica Hirst has put it lsquothe importance of the South American economies as a space for
a larger expansion of the Brazilian companies and the statersquos presence as an investor
(Petrobras) and financier (BNDES) [Brazilian Development Bank] became more
important for Brazilian material and strategic interests that the regional integration
process especially the Mercosurrsquo12 In short ambiguous perceptions coexisted in
Argentina with fluctuating bilateral relations The setting was propitious for the
reappearance of anti-Brazil perceptions in Argentina The pro-Brazilian episodic euphoria
of the years of Duhalde (Brazil as a lsquogreat strategic allyrsquo) turned into doubt and criticism in
the second phase which goes from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2006 Explicitly
and implicitly by both the Right and the Left an ambivalent feeling towards Brazil
unfolded albeit without the pugnacity of the past but nevertheless highlighting the
difficulties of embedding a culture of friendship between the two countries13
As in other debates in Argentina these visions were remnants of perceptions forged in
the seventies and nineties Kirchnerrsquos own ambiguities style and measures in government
did not help to build a more positive image of the role of Brazil for Argentina Several
groups located in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the business world think-tanks and the
media encouraged the counterbalancing of Brazil in lsquoSouth Americarsquo by means of a
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 257
lsquoLatin-Americanrsquo policy in which the role of Mexico was presented as crucial On the
other hand the vision of Chile as a partner for a more balanced South America and as an
economic model also regained strength in a wide spectrum of the Argentine elites covering
the Right to the centre-Left Chilersquos image was contrasted with that of Brazil The first was
seen essentially as lsquopredictablersquo and lsquoreasonablersquo while the second after the triumph of
Lularsquos Workers Party tended to be presented on the opposite side For some closer
relations with Chile would serve to offset the influence of Brazil in the Southern Cone ndash a
Santiago ndash Buenos Aires axis to limit the Brazilian aspiration to lead the area ndash while
others perceived the lsquoChilean wayrsquo as the best manner for taking a safe distance from
Mercosur which was perceived as an obstacle to establishing a flexible dense and fruitful
relationship with the rest of the world Finally the Left identified the relationship with
Venezuela as a balancing factor for restraining the power of Brazil
The third phase of Argentine ndash Brazilian relations started at the end of 2006 and
extends to the present An interesting twist can be observed in the direction of a more
positive perception of Brazil that clearly puts it in a central place for Argentina Two main
factors explain this change The first and most important is the growing international
relevance and regional weight of Brazil This process has led to the formation of a
widespread perception in Argentina that defines Brazil as lsquoinevitablersquo with a predominant
negative and generally pessimistic bias or as a country that is lsquoindispensablersquo in this case
emphasizing the possibility of building a common future and a strong cooperative
relationship The idea of Brazil as a necessary country is widely accepted but has
variously been accepted with resignation disgust and joy alternatively viewed as an
opportunity or severe challenge The lsquosuccessrsquo of Brazil is often contrasted with the
lsquofailuresrsquo of Argentina and generates different feelings such as pain envy nostalgia and
desire for emulation In any case the growth and rise of Brazil has converted it into a
model for almost everyone The second factor is the growing density of bilateral relations
As an example it is interesting to note that Brazil is already the fourth largest foreign
investor in Argentina after the United States Spain and China In 2010 24 of total
exports (42 industrial) and 82 of the cars manufactured in Argentina were directed to
the Brazilian market and 863492 Brazilian tourists visited the country14 At the same
time the expansion of Brazilian companies in Argentinarsquos productive activity and trade
has been impressive in the last decade
The main issue for the future then is how to live and interact with the lsquoinevitablersquo or
lsquoindispensablersquo country This convergence of perceptions regarding the centrality of Brazil
for Argentina only goes so far There is no agreement on the political economic and
strategic interests that should constitute the relationship with Brazil and consequently
about the best ways to put them into practice The transition from an entrenched culture of
rivalry to an incipient culture of friendship has lasted more than a quarter of a century
providing promising dividends for both nations and offering a good platform from which
to renegotiate the growing bilateral ties The world and the region and the national
situation of the two countries especially concerning the distribution of attributes of
economic power are now very different to the 1980s when the two countries took the first
steps to build a positive bilateral relationship The double condition of the Argentine ndash
Brazilian relationship that is its increasingly close and uneven character suggests that
there will be a complex combination of convergence and divergence between the two
nations Argentina and Brazil never were Pakistan and India in terms of antagonism and
sought in the past to jointly become an equivalent to the Franco ndash German axis for the
integration of South America an aspiration that today is unsustainable Circumstances
have changed and the condition of lsquoasymmetric interdependencersquo is recognized and
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
258 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
accepted in Argentina although not without the suspicions that characterize the attitudes
of the weaker party in a bilateral relationship In this context the main challenge for
Brasilia and Buenos Aires is to forge a realistic and positive lsquonew dealrsquo that contemplates
with its own specificity the bilateral relationship as well as Mercosur
In the end the above-mentioned three phases show the existence of both a changing
and intricate relationship If the theory of asymmetry is taken into consideration the first
move towards re-negotiating an unbalanced relationship should be initiated to a large
extent by the less powerful party In that sense it is yet unclear what the Argentine elites
(civilian and military economic and intellectual state-based and non-governmental) want
from relations with the continent (including the United States) the Spanish-speaking
region South America and finally Brazil Historically it has been quite difficult for
Argentines to have simultaneous positive relations with Washington and Brasilia In the
last two decades different opinions (sometimes personal more than collective) between
the lsquoLatin-Americanistsrsquo and the lsquoSouth-Americanistsrsquo favouring opposite strategic
options have been vocally expressed Currently several other countries in the area have
been increasing their leverage especially those facing the Pacific This phenomenon does
not go unnoticed by Argentine elites and is another source of domestic debate In this
dynamic and changing regional context Argentina has not been able to clearly establish
the goals and ambitions to guide its foreign policy towards the region and Brazil in
particular The response to this situation should be sought in essence in domestic politics
Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
Argentine ndash Chinese links should be placed in the larger context of China ndashLatin America
relations15 From a Latin American perspective Chinarsquos growing presence in the region
has been seen at least in the first decade of the twenty-first century as a promising trend
Chinarsquos ties with Latin America from the 1950s to the 1970s were marginal focused
primarily on cultural diplomacy driven by ideological motives and based on
revolutionary rhetoric This diplomatic strategy relied on the dividends of destabilization
was accompanied by anti-US slogans and was geared toward strengthening pro-Chinese
(and anti-Soviet) political parties and movements Chinarsquos international behaviour during
that period was that of a revisionist actor who sought to change the rules of the game
through aggressive means
In contrast Beijingrsquos approach to the region since the 1990s has involved an active
economic diplomacy characterized by pragmatism conciliation and stability Chinarsquos key
goal and main challenge has been to deepen its relations with the countries of Latin America
without irritating Washington Diplomatically China has proceeded in a judicious fashion
which explains in part why regional forces did not emerge to veto a policy of prudent and
consistent engagement toward China In addition Chinarsquos external diplomatic model has
been seductive to Latin America especially during the two administrations of George
W Bush in the United States multipolarism as opposed to unipolarism multilateralism as
opposed to unilateralism non-interference as opposed to interventionism soft power as
opposed to hard power pragmatism as opposed to ideologisation collaboration as opposed
to domination and persuasion as opposed to coercion All have been attractive notions in
Latin America Chinarsquos contemporary approach coincides with strong Latin American
traditions and aspirations and has become more captivating by virtue of the mishandling
disregard and thoughtlessness of US foreign policy towards the region
Nothing indicates that Latin America is geared towards accepting a paternalistic
externally-induced security dilemma with China and the region does not feel insecure visshy
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 259
a-vis Beijing despite certain ideologically-driven pressure groups in Washington
Moreover the Sino ndash Latin American ndash US triangular relationship has not engendered
major tensions or unmanageable challenges16 There is also nothing to suggest from a
regional viewpoint that Latin America ndash China ndash United States relations are destined to an
apocalyptic geopolitics approach based on an overblown fear of an alleged Chinese
takeover of the region China is not the Soviet Union post 911 is not a rehearsal of the
Cold War Washington is no longer at the pinnacle of world power and Latin America has
not collapsed after the Western economic and financial crisis began in 2008 There is also
no indication that Chinarsquos intention is to challenge the United States in the Western
Hemisphere In fact the Chinese government has actively sought to convince the United
States and the rest of the world that its intentions are benign thus the self-portrayal of a
peaceful rise
Chinarsquos behaviour in Latin America at the outset of the twenty-first century has been
far from that of a revisionist power On the one hand Beijingrsquos strategy has combined
necessity with opportunity and has been put into practice cautiously and diligently
curtailing the likelihood that the region will develop or adopt a policy aimed at rolling
back Chinarsquos presence On the other hand Latin Americarsquos relationship with Beijing is
more dependent on economic facts than political conceptions As there is no major
ideological concern in most countries about dealing with China the crucial element is the
material effect of Sino ndash Latin American linkages the level of dependency of the region
vis-a-vis China the degree of de-industrialization of the area derived from bilateral trade
and the ecological consequences of Chinese investment in Latin America17
This broader framework is essential to understand the dynamics of Argentinarsquos
relations with China in the larger context of Argentinendash Asian links Over the past two
decades the (re)emergence of China and the ascent of Asia have been a blessing for
Argentina Rising demand and higher prices for commodities have made it possible for
Argentina to elevate and diversify its trade flows with the East Since the 1990s and
despite the discernible differences in economic and foreign policies between Carlos
Menem and the Kirchners Argentina has developed a new pattern of production that has
led notwithstanding the crisis of 2001 to a reorganization of the economic base of the
country As noted by Pablo Gerchunoff lsquoIt is not just about the speed of exports there is
also a significant diversification traditional agriculture new agriculture industry energy
and mining concurred to modify the national economic landscapersquo18 In that context and
according to President Nestor Kirchner it was crucial lsquothrough China to search in Asia the
leverage to re-industrialize Argentinarsquo Economy not politics has been the driving force
to improve and extend Argentine relations with the East19
For the first time in more than seven decades Argentina has met a world that eagerly
requires what it produces The key driver of this demand is located in China but covers a
wide range of countries At present China is Argentinarsquos second largest trading partner
both in terms of the origin of imports and recipient of exports ndash in both dimensions after
Brazil and before the United States (See Table 1) Argentina meanwhile ranks third in the
list of the 15 major suppliers of agricultural products which supplied 90 per cent of
Chinese imports in 2010 United States (244) Brazil (136) and Argentina (73)
Other major suppliers were the European Union (6) Australia (5) and Malaysia (5)
By 2001 Argentine exports to China surpassed the US$1 billion barrier to hit US$1123
billion and imports totalled US$1066 billion Thus there was a small surplus of US$56
million in favour of Argentina By 2010 the commercial exchange was worth US$13795
billion totalling US$6117 billion in Argentine exports and US$7678 billion in Chinese
exports The result was a trade balance of US$1561 billion in Chinarsquos favour20 In the
Dow
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ovem
ber
2014
260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
Dow
nloa
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by [
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] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 257
lsquoLatin-Americanrsquo policy in which the role of Mexico was presented as crucial On the
other hand the vision of Chile as a partner for a more balanced South America and as an
economic model also regained strength in a wide spectrum of the Argentine elites covering
the Right to the centre-Left Chilersquos image was contrasted with that of Brazil The first was
seen essentially as lsquopredictablersquo and lsquoreasonablersquo while the second after the triumph of
Lularsquos Workers Party tended to be presented on the opposite side For some closer
relations with Chile would serve to offset the influence of Brazil in the Southern Cone ndash a
Santiago ndash Buenos Aires axis to limit the Brazilian aspiration to lead the area ndash while
others perceived the lsquoChilean wayrsquo as the best manner for taking a safe distance from
Mercosur which was perceived as an obstacle to establishing a flexible dense and fruitful
relationship with the rest of the world Finally the Left identified the relationship with
Venezuela as a balancing factor for restraining the power of Brazil
The third phase of Argentine ndash Brazilian relations started at the end of 2006 and
extends to the present An interesting twist can be observed in the direction of a more
positive perception of Brazil that clearly puts it in a central place for Argentina Two main
factors explain this change The first and most important is the growing international
relevance and regional weight of Brazil This process has led to the formation of a
widespread perception in Argentina that defines Brazil as lsquoinevitablersquo with a predominant
negative and generally pessimistic bias or as a country that is lsquoindispensablersquo in this case
emphasizing the possibility of building a common future and a strong cooperative
relationship The idea of Brazil as a necessary country is widely accepted but has
variously been accepted with resignation disgust and joy alternatively viewed as an
opportunity or severe challenge The lsquosuccessrsquo of Brazil is often contrasted with the
lsquofailuresrsquo of Argentina and generates different feelings such as pain envy nostalgia and
desire for emulation In any case the growth and rise of Brazil has converted it into a
model for almost everyone The second factor is the growing density of bilateral relations
As an example it is interesting to note that Brazil is already the fourth largest foreign
investor in Argentina after the United States Spain and China In 2010 24 of total
exports (42 industrial) and 82 of the cars manufactured in Argentina were directed to
the Brazilian market and 863492 Brazilian tourists visited the country14 At the same
time the expansion of Brazilian companies in Argentinarsquos productive activity and trade
has been impressive in the last decade
The main issue for the future then is how to live and interact with the lsquoinevitablersquo or
lsquoindispensablersquo country This convergence of perceptions regarding the centrality of Brazil
for Argentina only goes so far There is no agreement on the political economic and
strategic interests that should constitute the relationship with Brazil and consequently
about the best ways to put them into practice The transition from an entrenched culture of
rivalry to an incipient culture of friendship has lasted more than a quarter of a century
providing promising dividends for both nations and offering a good platform from which
to renegotiate the growing bilateral ties The world and the region and the national
situation of the two countries especially concerning the distribution of attributes of
economic power are now very different to the 1980s when the two countries took the first
steps to build a positive bilateral relationship The double condition of the Argentine ndash
Brazilian relationship that is its increasingly close and uneven character suggests that
there will be a complex combination of convergence and divergence between the two
nations Argentina and Brazil never were Pakistan and India in terms of antagonism and
sought in the past to jointly become an equivalent to the Franco ndash German axis for the
integration of South America an aspiration that today is unsustainable Circumstances
have changed and the condition of lsquoasymmetric interdependencersquo is recognized and
Dow
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
258 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
accepted in Argentina although not without the suspicions that characterize the attitudes
of the weaker party in a bilateral relationship In this context the main challenge for
Brasilia and Buenos Aires is to forge a realistic and positive lsquonew dealrsquo that contemplates
with its own specificity the bilateral relationship as well as Mercosur
In the end the above-mentioned three phases show the existence of both a changing
and intricate relationship If the theory of asymmetry is taken into consideration the first
move towards re-negotiating an unbalanced relationship should be initiated to a large
extent by the less powerful party In that sense it is yet unclear what the Argentine elites
(civilian and military economic and intellectual state-based and non-governmental) want
from relations with the continent (including the United States) the Spanish-speaking
region South America and finally Brazil Historically it has been quite difficult for
Argentines to have simultaneous positive relations with Washington and Brasilia In the
last two decades different opinions (sometimes personal more than collective) between
the lsquoLatin-Americanistsrsquo and the lsquoSouth-Americanistsrsquo favouring opposite strategic
options have been vocally expressed Currently several other countries in the area have
been increasing their leverage especially those facing the Pacific This phenomenon does
not go unnoticed by Argentine elites and is another source of domestic debate In this
dynamic and changing regional context Argentina has not been able to clearly establish
the goals and ambitions to guide its foreign policy towards the region and Brazil in
particular The response to this situation should be sought in essence in domestic politics
Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
Argentine ndash Chinese links should be placed in the larger context of China ndashLatin America
relations15 From a Latin American perspective Chinarsquos growing presence in the region
has been seen at least in the first decade of the twenty-first century as a promising trend
Chinarsquos ties with Latin America from the 1950s to the 1970s were marginal focused
primarily on cultural diplomacy driven by ideological motives and based on
revolutionary rhetoric This diplomatic strategy relied on the dividends of destabilization
was accompanied by anti-US slogans and was geared toward strengthening pro-Chinese
(and anti-Soviet) political parties and movements Chinarsquos international behaviour during
that period was that of a revisionist actor who sought to change the rules of the game
through aggressive means
In contrast Beijingrsquos approach to the region since the 1990s has involved an active
economic diplomacy characterized by pragmatism conciliation and stability Chinarsquos key
goal and main challenge has been to deepen its relations with the countries of Latin America
without irritating Washington Diplomatically China has proceeded in a judicious fashion
which explains in part why regional forces did not emerge to veto a policy of prudent and
consistent engagement toward China In addition Chinarsquos external diplomatic model has
been seductive to Latin America especially during the two administrations of George
W Bush in the United States multipolarism as opposed to unipolarism multilateralism as
opposed to unilateralism non-interference as opposed to interventionism soft power as
opposed to hard power pragmatism as opposed to ideologisation collaboration as opposed
to domination and persuasion as opposed to coercion All have been attractive notions in
Latin America Chinarsquos contemporary approach coincides with strong Latin American
traditions and aspirations and has become more captivating by virtue of the mishandling
disregard and thoughtlessness of US foreign policy towards the region
Nothing indicates that Latin America is geared towards accepting a paternalistic
externally-induced security dilemma with China and the region does not feel insecure visshy
Dow
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 259
a-vis Beijing despite certain ideologically-driven pressure groups in Washington
Moreover the Sino ndash Latin American ndash US triangular relationship has not engendered
major tensions or unmanageable challenges16 There is also nothing to suggest from a
regional viewpoint that Latin America ndash China ndash United States relations are destined to an
apocalyptic geopolitics approach based on an overblown fear of an alleged Chinese
takeover of the region China is not the Soviet Union post 911 is not a rehearsal of the
Cold War Washington is no longer at the pinnacle of world power and Latin America has
not collapsed after the Western economic and financial crisis began in 2008 There is also
no indication that Chinarsquos intention is to challenge the United States in the Western
Hemisphere In fact the Chinese government has actively sought to convince the United
States and the rest of the world that its intentions are benign thus the self-portrayal of a
peaceful rise
Chinarsquos behaviour in Latin America at the outset of the twenty-first century has been
far from that of a revisionist power On the one hand Beijingrsquos strategy has combined
necessity with opportunity and has been put into practice cautiously and diligently
curtailing the likelihood that the region will develop or adopt a policy aimed at rolling
back Chinarsquos presence On the other hand Latin Americarsquos relationship with Beijing is
more dependent on economic facts than political conceptions As there is no major
ideological concern in most countries about dealing with China the crucial element is the
material effect of Sino ndash Latin American linkages the level of dependency of the region
vis-a-vis China the degree of de-industrialization of the area derived from bilateral trade
and the ecological consequences of Chinese investment in Latin America17
This broader framework is essential to understand the dynamics of Argentinarsquos
relations with China in the larger context of Argentinendash Asian links Over the past two
decades the (re)emergence of China and the ascent of Asia have been a blessing for
Argentina Rising demand and higher prices for commodities have made it possible for
Argentina to elevate and diversify its trade flows with the East Since the 1990s and
despite the discernible differences in economic and foreign policies between Carlos
Menem and the Kirchners Argentina has developed a new pattern of production that has
led notwithstanding the crisis of 2001 to a reorganization of the economic base of the
country As noted by Pablo Gerchunoff lsquoIt is not just about the speed of exports there is
also a significant diversification traditional agriculture new agriculture industry energy
and mining concurred to modify the national economic landscapersquo18 In that context and
according to President Nestor Kirchner it was crucial lsquothrough China to search in Asia the
leverage to re-industrialize Argentinarsquo Economy not politics has been the driving force
to improve and extend Argentine relations with the East19
For the first time in more than seven decades Argentina has met a world that eagerly
requires what it produces The key driver of this demand is located in China but covers a
wide range of countries At present China is Argentinarsquos second largest trading partner
both in terms of the origin of imports and recipient of exports ndash in both dimensions after
Brazil and before the United States (See Table 1) Argentina meanwhile ranks third in the
list of the 15 major suppliers of agricultural products which supplied 90 per cent of
Chinese imports in 2010 United States (244) Brazil (136) and Argentina (73)
Other major suppliers were the European Union (6) Australia (5) and Malaysia (5)
By 2001 Argentine exports to China surpassed the US$1 billion barrier to hit US$1123
billion and imports totalled US$1066 billion Thus there was a small surplus of US$56
million in favour of Argentina By 2010 the commercial exchange was worth US$13795
billion totalling US$6117 billion in Argentine exports and US$7678 billion in Chinese
exports The result was a trade balance of US$1561 billion in Chinarsquos favour20 In the
Dow
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
Dow
nloa
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by [
FU B
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
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ber
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
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ber
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264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
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ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
258 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
accepted in Argentina although not without the suspicions that characterize the attitudes
of the weaker party in a bilateral relationship In this context the main challenge for
Brasilia and Buenos Aires is to forge a realistic and positive lsquonew dealrsquo that contemplates
with its own specificity the bilateral relationship as well as Mercosur
In the end the above-mentioned three phases show the existence of both a changing
and intricate relationship If the theory of asymmetry is taken into consideration the first
move towards re-negotiating an unbalanced relationship should be initiated to a large
extent by the less powerful party In that sense it is yet unclear what the Argentine elites
(civilian and military economic and intellectual state-based and non-governmental) want
from relations with the continent (including the United States) the Spanish-speaking
region South America and finally Brazil Historically it has been quite difficult for
Argentines to have simultaneous positive relations with Washington and Brasilia In the
last two decades different opinions (sometimes personal more than collective) between
the lsquoLatin-Americanistsrsquo and the lsquoSouth-Americanistsrsquo favouring opposite strategic
options have been vocally expressed Currently several other countries in the area have
been increasing their leverage especially those facing the Pacific This phenomenon does
not go unnoticed by Argentine elites and is another source of domestic debate In this
dynamic and changing regional context Argentina has not been able to clearly establish
the goals and ambitions to guide its foreign policy towards the region and Brazil in
particular The response to this situation should be sought in essence in domestic politics
Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
Argentine ndash Chinese links should be placed in the larger context of China ndashLatin America
relations15 From a Latin American perspective Chinarsquos growing presence in the region
has been seen at least in the first decade of the twenty-first century as a promising trend
Chinarsquos ties with Latin America from the 1950s to the 1970s were marginal focused
primarily on cultural diplomacy driven by ideological motives and based on
revolutionary rhetoric This diplomatic strategy relied on the dividends of destabilization
was accompanied by anti-US slogans and was geared toward strengthening pro-Chinese
(and anti-Soviet) political parties and movements Chinarsquos international behaviour during
that period was that of a revisionist actor who sought to change the rules of the game
through aggressive means
In contrast Beijingrsquos approach to the region since the 1990s has involved an active
economic diplomacy characterized by pragmatism conciliation and stability Chinarsquos key
goal and main challenge has been to deepen its relations with the countries of Latin America
without irritating Washington Diplomatically China has proceeded in a judicious fashion
which explains in part why regional forces did not emerge to veto a policy of prudent and
consistent engagement toward China In addition Chinarsquos external diplomatic model has
been seductive to Latin America especially during the two administrations of George
W Bush in the United States multipolarism as opposed to unipolarism multilateralism as
opposed to unilateralism non-interference as opposed to interventionism soft power as
opposed to hard power pragmatism as opposed to ideologisation collaboration as opposed
to domination and persuasion as opposed to coercion All have been attractive notions in
Latin America Chinarsquos contemporary approach coincides with strong Latin American
traditions and aspirations and has become more captivating by virtue of the mishandling
disregard and thoughtlessness of US foreign policy towards the region
Nothing indicates that Latin America is geared towards accepting a paternalistic
externally-induced security dilemma with China and the region does not feel insecure visshy
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 259
a-vis Beijing despite certain ideologically-driven pressure groups in Washington
Moreover the Sino ndash Latin American ndash US triangular relationship has not engendered
major tensions or unmanageable challenges16 There is also nothing to suggest from a
regional viewpoint that Latin America ndash China ndash United States relations are destined to an
apocalyptic geopolitics approach based on an overblown fear of an alleged Chinese
takeover of the region China is not the Soviet Union post 911 is not a rehearsal of the
Cold War Washington is no longer at the pinnacle of world power and Latin America has
not collapsed after the Western economic and financial crisis began in 2008 There is also
no indication that Chinarsquos intention is to challenge the United States in the Western
Hemisphere In fact the Chinese government has actively sought to convince the United
States and the rest of the world that its intentions are benign thus the self-portrayal of a
peaceful rise
Chinarsquos behaviour in Latin America at the outset of the twenty-first century has been
far from that of a revisionist power On the one hand Beijingrsquos strategy has combined
necessity with opportunity and has been put into practice cautiously and diligently
curtailing the likelihood that the region will develop or adopt a policy aimed at rolling
back Chinarsquos presence On the other hand Latin Americarsquos relationship with Beijing is
more dependent on economic facts than political conceptions As there is no major
ideological concern in most countries about dealing with China the crucial element is the
material effect of Sino ndash Latin American linkages the level of dependency of the region
vis-a-vis China the degree of de-industrialization of the area derived from bilateral trade
and the ecological consequences of Chinese investment in Latin America17
This broader framework is essential to understand the dynamics of Argentinarsquos
relations with China in the larger context of Argentinendash Asian links Over the past two
decades the (re)emergence of China and the ascent of Asia have been a blessing for
Argentina Rising demand and higher prices for commodities have made it possible for
Argentina to elevate and diversify its trade flows with the East Since the 1990s and
despite the discernible differences in economic and foreign policies between Carlos
Menem and the Kirchners Argentina has developed a new pattern of production that has
led notwithstanding the crisis of 2001 to a reorganization of the economic base of the
country As noted by Pablo Gerchunoff lsquoIt is not just about the speed of exports there is
also a significant diversification traditional agriculture new agriculture industry energy
and mining concurred to modify the national economic landscapersquo18 In that context and
according to President Nestor Kirchner it was crucial lsquothrough China to search in Asia the
leverage to re-industrialize Argentinarsquo Economy not politics has been the driving force
to improve and extend Argentine relations with the East19
For the first time in more than seven decades Argentina has met a world that eagerly
requires what it produces The key driver of this demand is located in China but covers a
wide range of countries At present China is Argentinarsquos second largest trading partner
both in terms of the origin of imports and recipient of exports ndash in both dimensions after
Brazil and before the United States (See Table 1) Argentina meanwhile ranks third in the
list of the 15 major suppliers of agricultural products which supplied 90 per cent of
Chinese imports in 2010 United States (244) Brazil (136) and Argentina (73)
Other major suppliers were the European Union (6) Australia (5) and Malaysia (5)
By 2001 Argentine exports to China surpassed the US$1 billion barrier to hit US$1123
billion and imports totalled US$1066 billion Thus there was a small surplus of US$56
million in favour of Argentina By 2010 the commercial exchange was worth US$13795
billion totalling US$6117 billion in Argentine exports and US$7678 billion in Chinese
exports The result was a trade balance of US$1561 billion in Chinarsquos favour20 In the
Dow
nloa
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02
37 0
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ber
2014
260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
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ber
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
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262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
Dow
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
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02
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ovem
ber
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264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
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ded
by [
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
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ded
by [
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
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by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 259
a-vis Beijing despite certain ideologically-driven pressure groups in Washington
Moreover the Sino ndash Latin American ndash US triangular relationship has not engendered
major tensions or unmanageable challenges16 There is also nothing to suggest from a
regional viewpoint that Latin America ndash China ndash United States relations are destined to an
apocalyptic geopolitics approach based on an overblown fear of an alleged Chinese
takeover of the region China is not the Soviet Union post 911 is not a rehearsal of the
Cold War Washington is no longer at the pinnacle of world power and Latin America has
not collapsed after the Western economic and financial crisis began in 2008 There is also
no indication that Chinarsquos intention is to challenge the United States in the Western
Hemisphere In fact the Chinese government has actively sought to convince the United
States and the rest of the world that its intentions are benign thus the self-portrayal of a
peaceful rise
Chinarsquos behaviour in Latin America at the outset of the twenty-first century has been
far from that of a revisionist power On the one hand Beijingrsquos strategy has combined
necessity with opportunity and has been put into practice cautiously and diligently
curtailing the likelihood that the region will develop or adopt a policy aimed at rolling
back Chinarsquos presence On the other hand Latin Americarsquos relationship with Beijing is
more dependent on economic facts than political conceptions As there is no major
ideological concern in most countries about dealing with China the crucial element is the
material effect of Sino ndash Latin American linkages the level of dependency of the region
vis-a-vis China the degree of de-industrialization of the area derived from bilateral trade
and the ecological consequences of Chinese investment in Latin America17
This broader framework is essential to understand the dynamics of Argentinarsquos
relations with China in the larger context of Argentinendash Asian links Over the past two
decades the (re)emergence of China and the ascent of Asia have been a blessing for
Argentina Rising demand and higher prices for commodities have made it possible for
Argentina to elevate and diversify its trade flows with the East Since the 1990s and
despite the discernible differences in economic and foreign policies between Carlos
Menem and the Kirchners Argentina has developed a new pattern of production that has
led notwithstanding the crisis of 2001 to a reorganization of the economic base of the
country As noted by Pablo Gerchunoff lsquoIt is not just about the speed of exports there is
also a significant diversification traditional agriculture new agriculture industry energy
and mining concurred to modify the national economic landscapersquo18 In that context and
according to President Nestor Kirchner it was crucial lsquothrough China to search in Asia the
leverage to re-industrialize Argentinarsquo Economy not politics has been the driving force
to improve and extend Argentine relations with the East19
For the first time in more than seven decades Argentina has met a world that eagerly
requires what it produces The key driver of this demand is located in China but covers a
wide range of countries At present China is Argentinarsquos second largest trading partner
both in terms of the origin of imports and recipient of exports ndash in both dimensions after
Brazil and before the United States (See Table 1) Argentina meanwhile ranks third in the
list of the 15 major suppliers of agricultural products which supplied 90 per cent of
Chinese imports in 2010 United States (244) Brazil (136) and Argentina (73)
Other major suppliers were the European Union (6) Australia (5) and Malaysia (5)
By 2001 Argentine exports to China surpassed the US$1 billion barrier to hit US$1123
billion and imports totalled US$1066 billion Thus there was a small surplus of US$56
million in favour of Argentina By 2010 the commercial exchange was worth US$13795
billion totalling US$6117 billion in Argentine exports and US$7678 billion in Chinese
exports The result was a trade balance of US$1561 billion in Chinarsquos favour20 In the
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ber
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260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
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ber
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262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
Dow
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
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02
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ovem
ber
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264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
Dow
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ded
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02
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5 N
ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
260 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
period January ndashSeptember 2011 the surplus in favour of China grew While Argentine
exports amounted to US$4746 billion Chinese exports came to US$7569 billion21
India is Argentinarsquos main Asian trading partner after China22 Other important
countries are Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Vietnam and Thailand23 By 2010 when
China implemented barriers to Argentine soybean oil in retaliation for local action that
prevented the entry of Chinese products into the country Argentina reoriented its soybean
exports to India which bought 14 million tons of soybean oil (corresponding to US$12
billion dollars) In September 2011 Indiarsquos ambassador in Argentina said his country
would increase demand for soybean oil over the next ten years from the current 8 million
to 15 million tons representing a significant additional opportunity for Argentine
producers and exporters24
Indeed ties with Asia are not limited to trade Again the paradigmatic case of this
new relationship is China which in recent years has also emerged as an increasingly
important financial actor During 2009 at a high point of the US-originated financial
crisis China and Argentina agreed to swap US$10 billion worth of their currencies in
order to enable Argentina to avoid using dollars in trade between both countries an
agreement that was the first of this sort between China and a South American country25
Beijing simultaneously accelerated its investment in agriculture mining energy and
banking and has become the third largest investor in the country (See Table 2)26 In
addition there is strong Chinese interest for participation in infrastructure development
projects in sectors such as railways roads ports and telecommunications The largest
food company in China Heilonjiang Beida-Huang signed an October 2010 cooperation
agreement with the province of Rıo Negro27 which provides China with twenty-year
leases on provincial lands (20000 hectares at an early stage that may eventually extend
to up to 320000 hectares)28 In return the Chinese company is committed to
undertaking major irrigation and infrastructure works as part of a ten-year investment of
US$15 billion dollars29 Different actors from Argentina are also opening trade offices
in Chinese cities and several twin cities and sister provinces have signed different 30agreements
In the oil sector the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) acquired 50
per cent of Bridas Corporation and Sinopec holds 100 per cent of Argentine assets in
Occidental In addition China controls 50 per cent of the Cerro Dragon field and will
handle major reserves for 40 years in the province of Santa Cruz To sum up Beijingrsquos
growing interest in Argentina has meant that the country is according to Levi J Jordan
from the Americas Society lsquoreceiving almost half of Chinarsquos investment in South America
over the past two yearsrsquo31 In that context the growth of Chinarsquos state corporations is
impressive32 Agreements have also been made in the field of defence the most prominent
is the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding for Strengthening Exchanges and
Cooperation in Defense of 16 May 2007 whereby both countries have committed to
maintain contacts to discuss global and regional security issues to cooperate on military
equipment and logistics and to establish a Defence Joint Commission It is worth
mentioning that officers from Argentina together with military from Chile and Colombia
frequently (more often than counterparts from Cuba and Venezuela) have attended courses
on grand strategy at Beijingrsquos elite national defence university PLANDU33 Even though
Argentina is not a significant South American buyer of military equipment34 has a very
low annual defence budget and that China is not the major supplier of arms to the region
(as it is the case of the United States Russia and the European Union) it has lately
considered the acquisition of Chinese Z-11 helicopters35 Finally after a July 2012 visit to
China by Argentine Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli both countries agreed that
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Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
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ber
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262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
Dow
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ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
Dow
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
Dow
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02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
Dow
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ded
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
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ded
by [
FU B
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02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 261
Argentina will construct a prototype of that helicopter by 201336 In general the level of
bilateral military dialogue is highly positive37
In key scientific and technological areas there has been an on-going improvement of
relations For example a Satellite Laser Raging (SLR) system designed and made in China
was installed in the Observatory of San Juan University38 Both countries plan to conduct
collaborative activities for Antarctic expedition39 There are many contacts and joint
initiatives in the areas of telecommunications and space40 The two countries are also
interested in creating a Bilateral Centre on Science and Technology for Food41
In addition China will install a satellite station in the province of Neuquen42 while
incrementing its presence in the telecommunications sector and establishing cooperation
ties in the nuclear field43
Argentina and China share important interests in their diplomatic agenda with regards
to the defence of the principle of lsquoterritorial integrityrsquo China consistently supports the
Argentine claim of sovereignty over the MalvinasFalklands while Argentina defends the
policy of lsquoone Chinarsquo which implies the non-recognition of the independence of Taiwan
and Tibet The issue of the MalvinasFalklands Islands has been surfacing for two reasons
On the one hand as Lyle Goldstein has remarked lsquoChinese defence analysts take such
intense interest in the Falkland Warrsquo due to the fact that according to Chinese government
officials and experts there are certain similarities between the Malvinas and Taiwan44 As
Taiwan is a vital issue for Beijing the understanding of the 1982 war in the South Atlantic
is extremely relevant On the other hand the potential closeness of China and Argentina
may provoke in the future a vulnerable situation with regards to the islands that could
affect British defence policy45 In times of a major economic crisis in Europe and with
diminishing possibilities of sustaining high defence budgets retired military officers from
Great Britain overemphasize Londonrsquos potential weakness in the South Atlantic
With respect to issues on the global agenda the two countries agree at the level of the
G-20 on the need for greater participation of emerging nations in international financial
organizations as well as the need to implement measures for the avoidance of financial
speculation that causes volatility in the prices of commodities Both countries have been
supporting peacekeeping operations and they both participate militarily in the UN Mission
in Haiti At the International Atomic Energy Agency Beijing and Buenos Aires have been
active in the promotion of non-proliferation
It is important also to mention a relatively new phenomenon in the relation between
Beijing and Buenos Aires namely Chinese immigration to Argentina There are
approximately 120000 Chinese and Chinese-descendants in Argentina mainly in Buenos
Aires46 Their point of origin is mostly Taiwan and Fujian and to a lesser extent Hong
Kong Even though there are no good estimates or different in-depth studies lsquoChinese
immigration to Argentina is assumed to be largely of illegal naturersquo with lsquoremittances an
important flow of capitalrsquo and Argentina being lsquoan intermediate stoprsquo for approximately
half of the Chinese migrants before seeking entry into the United States (mainly) or the
European Union47
To sum up the capabilities willingness and needs of both sides make the relationship
between Argentina and China (and Asia) complementary The East needs raw materials
(energy food and mining) and Argentina needs investments and infrastructure Of course
a link of this nature presents opportunities but also brings risks It has become fashionable
in Argentina to compare the current situation with the golden years of the lsquospecial
relationshiprsquo with Great Britain (and Europe) that was undoubtedly the engine of the great
Argentine take off between 1880 and 1914 It is also noted that the new relationship with
Asia offers great benefits to the neighbouring countries and therefore does not threaten the
Dow
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02
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ber
2014
262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
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5 N
ovem
ber
2014
264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
Dow
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ded
by [
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erlin
] at
02
37 0
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ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
Dow
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ded
by [
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02
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ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
262 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
harmony existing in the sub-region48 While recognizing the historic opportunity offered
to Argentina by the (re)emergence of China and the advancement of several Asian nations
others emphasize the risks especially those coming from China
Within that context it is relevant to mention that the highly optimistic somehow-naive
phase of Chinese ndash Latin American relations is experiencing changes including in
Argentina ndash China relations Most countries in the region and among them Argentina are
slowly moving from a strategy of lsquoreliable engagementrsquo49 to a more mixed strategy based
on a prudent approach that combines strong commercial ties and active damage-control
policies50 Latin American countries are well aware of the importance of key economic
issues and the sensitive security questions that characterize the regionrsquos relations with
China Concerns about de-industrialization via commodity-based export growth (affecting
basically South America) the effect of global lsquocurrency warsrsquo on the region (affecting all
of Latin America) and the impact of a decisive push for rural production within China
(affecting mainly Mexico and Central America) are extremely critical issues from North to
South America
On a broader outlook the fact that the global system is witnessing a period of
uncertainty is generating a new examination of Chinarsquos lsquowin-winrsquo diplomacy51 This is a
time of difficulties that places limits on Beijingrsquos global and regional strategies Not
surprisingly Argentina as well as other countries in Latin America is rethinking its ties
with China under a more nuanced viewpoint The advantages and dividends of more
commercial and financial links with China are superseded by new productive challenges
(for example excessive emphasis on commodities for export) at home and sensible
differences abroad (for example in the case of human rights) Interests and values are now
inextricably intertwined in Argentine ndash Chinese diplomacy In this context the deployment
of a more sophisticated policy vis-a-vis Beijing seems inevitable Necessity more than
willingness is pressing Buenos Aires to design a broader Asian strategy where China will
be a centrepiece but not the only counterpart politically and materially for the country
Looking Ahead
Argentinarsquos foreign policy developed historically from 1880 until the early twenty-first
century around three areas Europe the United States and Latin America especially the
Southern Cone countries Relations with the socialist world particularly with the Soviet
Union for political and commercial reasons were also important in the second half of the
twentieth century but never reached the scale of the other three axes In the decade since
2000 a fourth axis has been added to this traditional pattern with extraordinary strength
and projection the Asia Pacific region dominated by China
Relations with Europe remain important since there are shared interests and values and
a long history of mutual interaction In addition Argentina continues to need European
investments and technology transfers and the EU is still an important trading partner (See
Table 3) But Europe like Japan and the United States is a market in which exports have
shown in the last decade ceilings that are difficult to overcome The most dynamic and
consolidated markets for Argentina are in Latin America and Asia There are also other
developing markets that are growing at a faster pace than the rest of the world and offer
new opportunities for Argentine exports (Australia Canada Russia South Africa and
Turkey) In the next years Europe will focus its attention on domestic issues and other
areas of the world It is unlikely that any significant progress in the relations with
Argentina and Mercosur could be made in the short run A longer-term view suggests that
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 263
Europe will increasingly lose its relative importance for Argentina and that its historically
privileged position in the countryrsquos foreign relations will be a thing of the past
Argentinarsquos relations with the United States have never been easy Joseph Tulchin
summarizes its nature in the title of his well-known book Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship52 The strategy of lsquocouplingrsquo implemented during the Menem
years was a pragmatic adaptation to the world of the immediate post-Cold War and was
buried as a strategic option for Argentina with the 2001 crisis In the decade of 2000 the
Kirchners went back to the traditional historical pattern that we have called lsquolimited
oppositionrsquo53 This pattern which combines collaboration and disagreement deference
and resistance will continue to guide Argentinarsquos foreign policy toward Washington but
in a framework in which Buenos Airesrsquos concerns about restraining the United States
preponderance and power will tend to decrease Present conditions offer a great lsquoobjectiversquo
opportunity for the development of new areas of selective collaboration between the two
countries at the bilateral and regional levels A new era of relations with the United States
seems to be beginning for the Southern Cone one that is less unequal and perhaps more
cooperative The key challenge for Argentina is coping with a new reality of diminishing
influence of Washington in the sub-region Most of the time power erosion produces two
alternative behaviours adaptation or denial At least for the time being the relative decline
of US hegemony in South America is showing signs of a lsquosoft landingrsquo If this scenario
prevails then Argentina may manage its bilateral relation with the United States in a more
constructive way
In the case of Brazil it seems that we are entering a second long cycle of convergent
views about the place of this country in Argentinarsquos foreign policy54 This cycle may be
compared and opposed to another long period of convergent visions that characterized the
dominant form in which the neighbour country was perceived by the Argentine elites
during most of the twentieth century Today Brazil is defined as a strategic partner while
in the past until the return of both countries to democracy it was seen as a rival As we
have already mentioned the main challenge for Argentina is how to build this strategic
partnership within a framework of growing asymmetry
The link with Argentina although very important does not have today the same value
for Brazil as in the second half of the eighties By contrast the relationship with Brazil is
increasingly relevant for Argentinarsquos foreign relations and one that presents a significant
challenge In the past the relative symmetry between both countries was a constant source
of suspicion and conflict In the future the condition of asymmetric interdependence as a
structural feature of the relationship will not allow for competition but also is no
guarantee of friendship or cooperation Rather it can become a new source of suspicion
distrust and differences Argentina and Brazil will have to learn to live together in this new
reality and develop a broader framework of mutual understanding to manage the major
density of bilateral links and the global issues of common interests The greatest effort
must come from Argentina because it is the country that has a higher interest in the
relationship and more to gain
Finally the emergence of Asia is offering Argentina a unique opportunity for a
dynamic and successful international integration Its most recent economic dynamism is a
direct result of the increased demand from China and other Asian countries for food and
raw materials However Argentinarsquos exports to Asia are highly concentrated in the
soybean complex and to a much smaller extent in a small group of primary and natural
resource intensive products According to the latest ECLAC report five major products
accounted for 92 of total exports from Argentina to China during the years 2007 ndash 2009
(soybean 531 soybean oil 265 crude oil 747 other cattle 248 and meat and
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
264 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
poultry offal 233)55 Moreover the trade surplus with China has tended to evaporate
after several years of significant positive balances
This situation raises many questions about the Argentine specialization pattern ndash
beyond issues related to trade with China ndash and the need to reduce an excessive
dependence on the export of commodities Nevertheless as the benefits of trade with
China have been so high and have also enabled Argentina to successfully face and resist
the financial crises in the centres the propensity to do nothing is great As Eric Farnsworth
recently observed lsquoWhen nations are able to sell as much as they can produce of any
particular product the thinking is generally to continue doing so and reap the rewards
When economies are growing there is little political imperative or incentive for reformrsquo56
In consequence a relevant question surrounding this type of relationship is how to avoid
the temptation to inertia The tendency towards passive repetition is appealing The China
lsquochallengersquo in the early twenty-first century for Argentina is how to think and act
differently from what had been the case of Argentine ndash British relations at the beginning of
the twentieth century The framing of a different link with Beijing as well as the positive
handling of an increasingly complex multifaceted multilevel relationship with Brazil
seem to be the major challenges ahead for Argentinarsquos foreign relations
Notes 1 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil en la polıtica exterior argentina
Buenos Aires Fondo de Cultura Econo mica 2003 pp 45 ndash 59 2 We use the concept lsquosystemic changesrsquo in the same sense as Robert Gilpin See his book War
and Change in World Politics Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1981 pp 42ndash 43 3 For an interesting analysis of these debates see Jose Paradiso Debates y trayectoria de la
polıtica exterior argentina Buenos Aires Grupo Editor Latinoamericano 1993 4 On the concept lsquoasymmetryrsquo and its implications for bilateral relations see Brantley Womack
lsquoAsymmetry and Systemic Misperception China Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970rsquosrsquo Journal of Strategic Studies 262 June 2003 pp 92ndash 119
5 On structural and relational power see Susan Strange States and Markets An Introduction to International Political Economy London Pinter 1988 pp 25ndash9
6 David C Kang lsquoThe theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relationsrsquo Australian Journal of International Affairs 583 September 2004 p 339
7 Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxy Asserting Latin Americarsquos New Strategic Options Toward the United Statesrsquo Latin America Politics and Society 533 Winter 2011 pp 129 ndash 134
8 Eric Hobsbawm lsquoDespues del siglo XX un mundo en transicionrsquo in Ricardo Lagos (ed) America Latina iquestintegracion o fragmentacion Buenos Aires Edhasa 2008 pp 29ndash 47
9 Remarks by the President of the Argentine Republic Nestor Kirchner at the inauguration of the IV Summit of the Americas Mar del Plata httpwwwsummit-ameicasorgDocuments 20del20presidente20de20RepC3BAblica20Argentinapdf
10 La Nacion (Buenos Aires) lsquoCristina Kirchner critico a Obama con duros terminosrsquo 26 February 2010 Available at httpwwwlanacioncomar1237368-cristina-kirchner-criticoshya-obama-con-duros-terminos accessed 17 November 2011
11 For more in depth analysis of the bilateral relations see Russell and Tokatlian El lugar de Brasil pp 45ndash59 and Roberto Russell and Juan G Tokatlian lsquoPercepcoes argentinas sobre o Brasil ambivalencias e expectativasrsquo Polıtica Externa 202 September 2011 pp 43ndash 56
12 Monica Hirst lsquoLa polıtica sudamericana de Brasil entre el peso de las asimetrıas y la incidencia de nuevas coyunturasrsquo in F Calderon (ed) Escenarios polıticos en America Latina Conceptos metodos y Observatorio Regional Cuadernos de Gobernabilidad Democratica 2 Buenos Aires PNUD Siglo XXI 2008 p 257
13 We use the concept of friendship following Alexander Wendt Social Theory of International Politics Cambridge Cambridge UP 1999 pp 297ndash 308
14 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoBrasil en la vida cotidiana argentinarsquo 22 May 2011 p 1
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 265
15 On China ndash Latin America relations at the beginning of the XXI Century see Juan G Tokatlian lsquoA view from Latin Americarsquo in R Roett and G Paz (eds) Chinarsquos Expansion into the Western Hemisphere Implications for Latin America and the United States Washington DC Brookings Institution Press 2008
16 According toMark P Sullivan a specialist on Latin American affairs at theUS Congressional Research Service lsquoThe balance of opinion toward China and the United States in Latin America tend to be roughly comparable according to a (2007) Pew study Two exceptions are Argentina where China is viewed much more favorably than the United States and in Mexico where the United States is viewed much more favorably than Chinarsquo See Thomas Lum (ed) lsquoComparing Global Influence China and US Diplomacy Foreign Aid Trade and Investment in the Developing Worldrsquo in CRS Report to Congress August 15 2008
17 Kevin Gallagher lsquoLatin Americarsquos China challengersquo 2011 Policy Innovations httpwwwase tuftsedugdaePubsrpGallagher_PolicyInnovationsJan11pdf accessed 18 November 2011
18 Pablo Gerchunoff 2010 lsquoCausas y azares en mas de un siglo de historia econo mica argentinarsquo in R Russell (ed) Argentina 1910ndash2010 Balance de un siglo Buenos Aires Taurus p 152
19 See the complete quote in Sergio Cesarin lsquoChina y Argentina Enfoques y recomendaciones para potenciar la relacion bilateralrsquo Serie Aportes 2010 httplibraryfesdepdf-filesbueros argentinien07560pdf accessed 28 November 2011
20 Based on INDEC 2011 and Comercio Exterior Argentino 2010 httpwwwindecgovar accessed 13 November 2011
21 Camara de Exportadores de la Republica Argentina En Contcto China No 43 November 2011 p 16
22 In October 2009 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner visited India It was her first trip to an Asian country after her inauguration in December 2007 and it was the first visit of an Argentine president to India since 1994
23 It is important to mention the cases of Indonesia and Vietnam for two reasons the growth of trade in the last decade and the fact Argentine exports to these two countries are mainly nonshytraditional commodities For example exports to Indonesia jumped fromUS$43million in 2001 to US$852 million in 2010 while exports to Vietnam grew from US$60 million in 2001 to US $654 million in 2010 Cların iEco Buenos Aires lsquoArgentina en mas puertosrsquo 28 August 2011
24 La Nacion Economıa y Negocios Buenos Aires lsquoLa soja argentina ahora apunta a la Indiarsquo 15 September 2011 p 3
25 China Daily lsquoArgentina China sign tentative swap dealrsquo 31 March 2009 httpwww chinadailycomcnchina2009-0331content_7635007htm accessed 11 November 2011
26 Argenpress (Buenos Aires) lsquoInversiones chinas en la Argentina Claves del nuevo escenario energeticorsquo 14 June 2011 httpwwwargenpressinfo201106inversiones-chinas-enshyargentina-claveshtml accessed 19 November 2011
27 See text of the agreement at httpwwwgrrorgarrionegro-chinaacuerdo-saiz-chinapdf accessed 26 Nov 2011 and El Cronista Buenos Aires lsquoChina invierte 1500 millones en Rıo Negro para asegurarse alimentosrsquo 9 June 2011 httpwwwcronistacomnegocios China-invierte-us-1500-millones-en-Rio-Negro-para-asegurarse-alimentos-20110609-0033 html accessed 19 November 2011
28 On other actual and potential Chinese investments in Argentine provinces see Camara Argentino China Negocios con China 2011 httpwwwargenchinaorgarticulos_2010 NegociosConChinapdf accessed 14 November 2011 and FUNDAMIN lsquoChina invierte en las 23 provincias argentinasrsquo httpfundamincomaresinfo36-exportaciones-e-importaciones 299-china-invierte-en-las-23-provincias-argentinashtml accessed 19 November 2011
29 httpwwwnoalaminaorgmineria-informacion-generalgeneralargentina-china-recreacionshyde-la-vieja-qrelacion-especialq-con-gran-bretana accessed 20 January 2012
30 lsquoLas relaciones entre China y Argentinarsquo httpespanolcricn1161201211281s264119 htm accessed 17 November 2011
31 lsquoRailway rapprochement China invests in Argentinarsquo 2010 httpwwwas-coaorgarticles 2528Railway_Rapprochement_China_Invests_in_Argentina accessed 17 Nov 2011
32 Silvia Simonit lsquoLas empresas chinas en Argentinarsquo Chinese Studies Working Paper Series (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) No 1 2011
33 Loro Horta lsquoIn Uncle Samrsquos Backyard Chinarsquos Military Influence in Latin Americarsquo Military Review September-October 2008 p 48
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
266 R Russell and J G Tokatlian
34 As are the cases of Brazil Chile Colombia and Venezuela 35 Seguridad y Defensa lsquoEl Ejercito Negocia con China la compra de helico pterosrsquo 10 October
2010 httpwwwseguridadydefensacomarnoticiasejercito-negocia-con-china-la-comprashyde-helicopteros-25059html accessed 10 November 2011
36 httpwwwelmetroonlinecomarindexphpoption frac14com_k2ampviewfrac14 itemampidfrac141067 purishycelli-firmC3B3-convenio-de-defensa-con-chinaampItemid frac14238 accessed 12 September 2012
37 China Military Online lsquoChang Wanquan holds talks with Argentine deputy Defense ministerrsquo 28 November 2011 httpengchinamilcomcnnews-channelschina-militaryshynews2011-1128content_4725893htm accessed 29 November 2011
38 T Wang et lsquoNew SRL station running in San Juan of Argentinarsquo Crustal Dynamics Data Information System nd httpcddisgsfcnasagovlw15docspapersNew20SLR20Station 20Running20in20San20Juan20of20Argentinapdf accessed 9 November 2011
39 Chinese Academy of Sciences lsquoChina Argentina to strengthen cooperation on Antarctic expeditionrsquo 16 August 2010 httpenglishbiccascnNE201008t20100816_57510html accessed 29 November 2011
40 Janie Hulse lsquoChinarsquos Expansion into and US withdrawal from Argentinarsquos telecommunicashytions and space industries and the implications for US national securityrsquo Strategic Studies Institute September 2007 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpdffilespub806pdf accessed 7 November 2011
41 Ministry of Science and Technology lsquoChina y la Argentina se reu nen para desarrollar un Centro Binacionalrsquo 2011 httpwwwmincytgovaragendaagenda_detalle phpid_ agendafrac1435 accessed 16 November 2011
42 httpwwwlmneuquencomarnoticias201282avanza-instalacion-de-una-estacion-satel ital-de-china-en-la-provincia_156999 accessed 14 October 2012
43 httpwwwstrategicstudiesinstitutearmymilpubssummarycfmqfrac14 806 accessed 29 November 2011 httpenergyseenewscomnewsargentina-china-sign-nuclear-coop eration-agreement-306141 accessed 3 November 2012
44 For the major reasons that motivated this interest see Lyle Goldstein lsquoChinarsquos Falklands Lessonsrsquo Survival 503 2008 pp 65-66
45 UKNDA Inconvenient Truths Threats Justify Prioritising Defence London UKNDA 2011 p 24
46 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoVivir en la Argentina estudiar en Chinarsquo 11 October 2011 http wwwlanacioncomar1413556-vivir-en-la-argentina-estudiar-en-china accessed 9 Novemshyber 2011
47 G M Calderon lsquoInmigracion china en las Americas Comparacion de las experiencias en Canada y Argentinarsquo Revista Argentina de Estudios Canadienses No 2 2008 p 30
48 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoChina Una oportunidad histo ricarsquo 26 July 2011 49 Juan Tokatlian lsquoLatin America China and the United States A Hopeful Trianglersquo 2007
Open Democracy httpwwwopendemocracynetdemocracy-protesthopeful_triangle_ 4336jsp accessed 4 November 2011
50 La Nacion Buenos Aires lsquoUna nueva estrategia hacia Chinarsquo 29 August 2011 51 Brantley Womack lsquoBeyond Win-Win Rethinking International Relationships in an Era of
Economic Uncertaintyrsquo Paper presented to the International Conference on the Chinese Models of Development Domestic and Global Aspects Taipei Taiwan September 2011
52 Joseph Tulchin Argentina and the United States A Conflicted Relationship New York Macmillan 1990
53 Russell and Tokatlian lsquoBeyond Orthodoxyrsquo 54 According to the latest report of Latinobaro metro 52 of the Argentines consider Brazil as
the main leader of Latin America while only 2 gives that condition to the United States http wwwlatinobarometroorglatinoLATContenidosjsp accessed 23 November 2011
55 Osvaldo Rosales lsquoLa Republica Popular China y America Latina y el Caribe Hacia una nueva fase en el vınculo econo mico comercialrsquo 2011 ECLAC httpwwweclacorgpubl icacionesxml643666La_Republica_Popular _China_y_America_Latina_y_el_Caribe _ tradepdf accessed 10 November 2011
56 Eric Farnsworth 2011 lsquoThe New Mercantilism Chinarsquos Emerging Role in the Americasrsquo Current History February Available at httpwwwas coaorgarticles2982The_New_shyMercantilism_Chinas_Emerging_Role_in_the_Americas accessed 28 November 2011
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
Journal of Iberian and Latin American Research 267
Appendix 1
Table 1
Argentinean trade with Brazil in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 6206 4828 4666 5587 6335 8141 10498 13272 11374 14420 Imports 5230 2517 4700 7567 10187 11749 14523 17687 11822 17658 Trade 975 2310 233 21980 23852 23608 24025 24415 2448 23238 balance
Argentinean trade with the United States in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 2840 2869 3364 3733 4493 4025 4153 5095 3465 3656 Imports 3737 1789 2238 3389 3998 4247 5264 6894 5106 6125 Trade 2897 1080 1126 344 495 2222 21111 21799 21641 22469 balance
Argentinean trade with China in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 1123 1092 2483 2628 3193 3476 5170 6355 3668 6117 Imports 1066 330 721 1402 2237 3122 5093 7104 4823 7678 Trade 56 762 1762 1227 956 354 77 2 749 2 1155 2 1561 balance
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 2
FDI stock in Argentina by country of origin in millions of dollars (selected countries) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 16422 7476 7989 10277 11689 12208 13601 13930 14012 14814 of total 238 231 208 182 187 176 175 172 175 168
Brazil 1953 2108 3280 1773 2488 2810 3659 4969 4319 5367 of total 283 651 856 314 397 406 470 614 539 608
China no data no data no data 13 11 45 120 141 123 5500 of total no data no data no data 002 002 006 015 017 015 623
Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
for the years 2001 2002 and 2003 the data for Brazil includes all FDI from South America excluding ChileFrom 2003 onwards the data is exclusively for BrazilSource INDEC and UNCTAD
Table 3
Argentinean trade with the European Union in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports 4698 5309 6079 6209 6844 8010 9901 13173 10278 11026 Imports 4717 2107 2814 4237 4830 5811 7442 9043 6434 7587 Trade 219 3201 3265 1972 2013 2199 2458 4130 3845 3439 balance
FDI from the European Union in Argentina in millions of dollars 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FDI 38279 18284 21273 33001 36848 40408 45159 45070 44963 47605 of total 5553 5643 5551 5835 5883 5832 5797 5568 5610 5394 Total 68935 32403 38323 56554 62639 69292 77899 80941 80144 88249
Source INDEC and UNCTAD
Dow
nloa
ded
by [
FU B
erlin
] at
02
37 0
5 N
ovem
ber
2014
- Abstract
- The United States and Brazil Losing and Gaining Centrality
- Relations with China (and Asia) A Historic and Challenging Opportunity
- Looking Ahead
- Notes
- Appendix
-
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