inclusion of demand-‐side behavioural parameters in long-‐term energy modelling
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Inclusion of demand-‐side behavioural parameters in long-‐term energy modelling
Roman Kanala
University of Geneva, Ins=tute of Environmental Sciences
ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
Social MARKAL Case: residen=al ligh=ng in city of Nyon
Import
Electricity
Marketing
Moderate Use
(process)
Marketing
Technology Switch
(process)
Existing
Incandescence Bulbs
Moderate
Use Incand. Bulbs
Switched
Low Cons. Bulbs
Existing
Low Cons. Bulbs
Residential
Lighting
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
SUPPLYResource
PROCESSTECHNOLOGIES
DEMANDDEVICES
END-USEDEMAND
Energy carrier
Electricity
Virtual
energy carrier
Moderate
use
Virtual
energy carrier
Technology
switch
1
ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015 2
Social TIMES Romania • three sectors: residen=al, transports, others
• only demand side modeled in detail
• supply side: virtual imports
• start 2010, 6 =me slices, 7 periods un=l 2026
Final energy Demand devices Useful
demand (Residential)
Electricity Incandescent bulbs Lighting Coal EFL bulbs Cooking Light fuel LED bulbs Hot water Heavy fuel Petroleum lamps Space heating Natural gas Coal heating stove Space cooling
Petroleum Wood heating stove Clothes washing
Biomass Natural gas heating stove Clothes drying
Low Temp Heat Electric heating stove Dish washing
Solar thermal Petroleum heating stove Refrigerating
Solar electric LTH radiators Freezing Solar warm water Electric cooking Wood cooking Natural gas cooking
...
Sectors Residential Transports Other
3 ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
Residen=al Ligh=ng (also for household appliances)
4 ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
Residen=al hea=ng
5
Proceedings of the Energy for Sustainability Mul=disciplinary Conference EfS 2013, 8-‐10 September 2013 -‐ Energy for Sustainability Ini=a=ve, University of Coimbra, Portugal
ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
Behaviour models
• VBN: Value – Belief – Norm • TPB: Theory of Planned Behaviour • HB: Habitual Behaviour • ABC: AXtude – Behaviour – Context
• IPB: Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour • MOA: Mo=va=on – Opportunity – Ability
attitude
social norm
self-ef
intention behaviourawareness
feedback
habitualbehaviour
+ + ++ + +
- - -
cacyfi
Beliefs about outcomes
Evaluation of outcomes
Norms
Roles
Selfconcept
Emotions
Attitude
Social factors
Af
Frequency of past behaviour
Intention
Habits
Behaviour
Facilitating conditions
fect
positive
positive
negative
negative
Attitudes (A)
External conditions (C) RecyclingNo Recycling
attitude
subjective norm
perceivedbehaviouralcontrol
intention behaviourbackgroundvariables
feedback
Values(especially
altruistic values)
NEP(worldview)
AC (awarenessof consequences)
AR (feeling of responsibility)
PN (feeling of obligation)
Behaviour
Belief evaluations
Attitude towards behaviour
Intention
Social norm
AbilityHabit, task knowledge
Behaviour
OpportunitySituational conditions
Motivation
7
Behaviour models seek to explain energy saving consumer behaviour, not energy consump1on
ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
Theory of Habitual Behaviour
8
attitude
social norm
self-ef
intention behaviourawareness
feedback
habitualbehaviour
+ + ++ + +
- - -
cacyfi
Up to 95% of household energy behaviour is a form of habitual behaviour. Source: Wagenaar, 1992
To break the habitual loop: removing incen=ves to habitual behaviour, making consumers aware of their habits, enable to control the outcomes
Source: Egmond and Bruel, 2007
ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
Social MARKAL – Social TIMES Behavioural Model
9 ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
What to measure
Bounds on technologies -‐ share of people who: • Already do have the informa=on and behave ra=onally
• Do not have the informa=on but once beber informed, they will change their behaviour
• Will never change because of extra-‐economic reasons
Efficiencies, cost of virtual process technology “infocampaign”: • Part of people for whom the informa=on campaign is the principal vector
of behavioural change -‐ yield
• Part of people who denote a medium as the most efficient one – cost mix
10 ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
A hybrid simula=on-‐op=misa=on model
11
Source: K. Ramea et al., Incorpora1on of Consumer Demand in Energy Systems Models and their Implica1ons for Climate Policy Analysis, IEW Paris, IEA 19-‐21 June 2013
ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
From the compe==on within modes toward compe==on between modes
Two travel demands: long & short distance demand
Two inputs: fuel input, =me input Travel =me budget TTB, new variable: travel =me investment TTI
12
TIMES with travel-‐=me budget
Source: H. Daly et al., Incorpora1ng travel behaviour and travel 1me into TIMES energy system models, Applied Energy 135 (2014) 429-‐439
ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
Share of Choice -‐ Results
15
Proceedings of the 53rd Meeting of the Euro Working Group on Commodities and Financial Modelling (EWGCFM) and 2nd International Conference of the Research Centre for Energy Management (RCEM), 22-24 May 2014, Chania, Crete
Proceedings of the 14th Informatics in Economy International Conference, 30 April - 2 May 2015, Bucharest, Romania
ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
Social MARKAL vs. Share of Choice vs. Others
16
Cochin TIMES TIMES TTI
ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
Social MARKAL, Social TIMES, Share of Choice MARKAL can address any behaviour
Bulbs & appliances
Residen=al hea=ng
Car traffic
Research project
• Swiss Enlargement Contribu=on in the framework of the Romanian-‐Swiss Research Program
• Swiss Na=onal Fund of Scien=fic Research Grant IZERZ0_142217 (2012-‐2015)
• Research team: – Geneva: Emmanuel Fragnière, Francesco Moresino, Roman Kanala – Bucharest: Ion Smeureanu, Marian Dardala, Andrea Reveiu,
Emilia Titan, Felix Furtuna
17 ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015
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