indonesia nama success story

Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions for the Forests and Other Land Uses of Indonesia:

Complementarity of Policy Instruments, Funding Streams and Motivation

Meine van Noordwijk

ICRAF

Co-authors:Fahmuddin Agus, Sonya Dewi &

Herry Purnomo

Is the window of opportunity for REDD+ closing? COP-18, Doha, Qatar (EU Pavilion): 29 November 2012, 18:00-20:00

Expected effect positive

neutral

negative

Path-dependence?

0. Igno-rance of issues and po-tential solution

I. Initial excitement, supported by positive feedback reinforcement, effective ‘public re-lations’, grading into ‘hype’

II. Reality checks, disappoint-ment, confusion, ‘crash’

III. Real negotiations can start to define a net positive outcome of unavoidable tradeoffs (‘loose less’ – ‘loose less’, or ‘win’-‘win’?), or to abandon the framing and seek a new solution (repeating the cycle?)

Figure 1. Stages in typical ‘issue cycle’ of environmental policy

Hope / Hype / Crash / Reality?

Politi

cal p

rom

inen

ce

pe

ople

* in

fluen

ce *

con

cern

Stage of the issue cycle

Scoping Stakeholder Negotiation Implemen- Re-eva-analysis response tation luation

Is it a problem?

Cause-effect mechanisms

Who’s to blame?

What will it cost?

Regulate and/or reward

Implement & monitor

Evaluate, re-assess

Who’ll have to pay?

What can be done to stop, mitigate, undo or adapt?

How much and where?

Who will monitor compliance? Litigation

Tomich et al., 2004

The REDD future seemed bright in 2007

Five challenges:1.Scope,definitions

2.Peat outside ‘forest’3.Rights, legality

4.Interlinkage and leakage5.Fairness & efficiency

Nov 2007 – ahead of Bali COP:

Time

Emission outside the

REDD scheme

Sink outside A/R CDM scheme

C-stocks

t/ha

Fairness: the real conservation cost

Market Efficiency: the most real impact

Depend on definition

Forest

Conservation Production Conversion

Coreidentity

Environmental quality, health

Branding as basis for market share

Global trade and investment relations

Economic growth with acceptable distributional effects

Food sufficiency as prerequisite for political stability in cities and supportive electorates

Territorial integrity and security of the state, international independence, domestic bounded local autonomy

Moti

vatio

nal p

yram

id d

rivin

g go

vern

men

t dec

ision

s

Knowledge, awareness

I. Awareness II. Readiness III. Implementation at scale

Self-articulated NAMA

REDD+ ER-p

erfo

rman

ce b

ased

fina

nce,

with

so

me

inte

rnati

onal

ER

addi

tiona

lity

EET Self-

regu

lato

ory

resp

onse

to

redu

ce C

foo

trpi

tns

in t

rade

UNFCCC negotiations of rules of the game

Rent-seeking elites

REDD rents compete with forest rents

Our exports are threatened…

We care…

Ecological & social safeguards

1. Scope & definitions

intensive agriculture

natural forest

integrated, multifunctional

landscape: crops, trees, meadows and forest

patches

Tree plan- tations

intensive

extensive

conservation

protection

production

Agr

ofor

estr

y

Agr

icu

ltu

re

F

ores

try

Segregate Integrate functions

Current legal, institutional & educational paradigm

Current reality

‘deforestation’

‘loss of forest functions’

….are included under forest, as are areas normally forming part of the forest area which are temporarily

unstocked as a result of human intervention such as harvesting or

natural causes but which are expected to revert to forest;

[FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.1]

Signs of deforestation?

Forest without

trees

Non-forest without trees

Trees outside forest

Forest with trees

Forest definition based on institutions & intent

Forest definition based on X% canopy cover

Including e.g. agroforests, oil palm plantation

Clearfelling/ re-plant is accep-ted as forest; no time-limit on ‘replant’

If we cannot define it, we cannot save it:

forest definitions and REDD

Forest definitions are ambiguous so often forest loss is not officially counted as deforestation. As well,

ground-level implications of REDD+ will depend on the

operational definition. Application of AFOLU accounting rules can

bypass the need for clear definitions, reduce leakage and

promote multifunctional landscapes in an equitable, efficient and effective way

1. Undisturbed natural forest 2. Undisturbed + sust. logged natural forest 3. Closed canopy undisturbed + logged forest 4A. as 3 + agroforest 4B. as 3 + timber plantations 4C. as 3 + agroforest + timber plant’s + estate crops 4D as 4C + shrub

Rainforest foundation

Conservation agency

Modis data

Ministry of ForestryForest ecologist

UNFCCC definition

Stakeholder:

http://www.asb.cgiar.org/

REDD_ALERT synthesis and re-analysis of 5 carbon-pool data for Jambi

RED = Reducing emissions from (gross) deforestation: only changes from ‘forest’ to ‘non-forest’ land cover types are included, and details very much depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’

RED = Reducing emissions from (gross) deforestation: only changes from ‘forest’ to ‘non-forest’ land cover types are included, and details very much depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’

REDD = idem, + (forest) degradation, or the shifts to lower C-stock densities within the forest; details very much depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’

RED = Reducing emissions from (gross) deforestation: only changes from ‘forest’ to ‘non-forest’ land cover types are included, and details very much depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’

REDD = idem, + (forest) degradation, or the shifts to lower C-stock densities within the forest; details very much depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’

REDD+ = idem, + restocking within and towards ‘forest’ ; in some versions RED+

will also include peatlands, regardless of their forest status ; details still depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’

RED = Reducing emissions from (gross) deforestation: only changes from ‘forest’ to ‘non-forest’ land cover types are included, and details very much depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’

REDD = idem, + (forest) degradation, or the shifts to lower C-stock densities within the forest; details very much depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’

REDD+ = idem, + restocking within and towards ‘forest’ ; in some versions RED+ will also include peatlands, regardless of their forest status ; details still depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’

REDD++ = REALU = idem, + all transitions in land cover that affect C storage, whether peatland or mineral soil, trees-outside-forest, agroforest, plantations or natural forest. It does not depend on the operational definition of ‘forest’

20

Spatial analysis: classification of 450 districts in Indonesia according to 7 tree cover transition stages (Dewi et al., in prep.)

“Forest transition” as spatial pattern. ‘chronosequence’?

1. Scope & definitions

intensive agriculture

natural forest

integrated, multifunctional

landscape: crops, trees, meadows and forest

patches

Tree plan- tations

intensive

extensive

conservation

protection

production

Agr

ofor

estr

y

Agr

icu

ltu

re

F

ores

try

Segregate Integrate functions

Current legal, institutional & educational paradigm

Current reality

‘deforestation’

‘loss of forest functions’

This issue can be/has been resolved by nesting REDD+ within a broader land-based NAMA (REALU) framework in Indonesia’s national & regional GHG reduction plans

2. Rights & legality• In 2012 the Indonesian constitutional court ruled in a case

initiated by local governments in Central Kali-mantan province, that the ambiguity that the 1999 Forestry Law 41 had created in allowing either ‘designation’ or ‘gazettement’ to be the basis for inclusion of land areas in the permanent forest es-tate in its article 1(3), should be resolved by relying on ‘gazettement’ only. Only 14.2 Mha (10.9%) out of the 130.7 Mha of Kawasan Hutan (68.4% of Indo-nesia’s land) has to date been gazetted in complian-ce with the law => legal vacuum around all govern-ment rules and permits for >50% of Indonesia

http://www.asb.cgiar.org/

2. Rights & legality• In 2012 the Indonesian constitutional court ruled in a case

initiated by local governments in Central Kali-mantan province, that the ambiguity that the 1999 Forestry Law 41 had created in allowing either ‘designation’ or ‘gazettement’ to be the basis for inclusion of land areas in the permanent forest es-tate in its article 1(3), should be resolved by relying on ‘gazettement’ only. Only 14.2 Mha (10.9%) out of the 130.7 Mha of Kawasan Hutan (68.4% of Indo-nesia’s land) has to date been gazetted in complian-ce with the law => legal vacuum around all govern-ment rules and permits for >50% of Indonesia

This issue can be/has been partially resolved by nesting REDD+ within a broader land-based NAMA (REALU)

framework in Indonesia’s national & regional GHG reduction plans, with regencies/provinces as major

actors; at national scale new efforts have only just started

3. Interlinkage & leakageLow intensity swiddening

maintains forestLogging & mining

concessions harvest large trees & create

road accessPost-logging institutional

vacuum allows settlers

Over-capacity of wood-based industry => demand for

‘illegal logging’

Economic opportunity of oil

palm, rubber, coffee attracts

large- & small-scale planters

Forest tenure reform creates incentives for

tree planting

Fallow => agroforest

Swiddening intensifies, fire cycle

starts

Industrial timber

plantations

Drivers of tree cover change

Van Noordwijk

et al., 2011

Forest and tree cover transitions: a unifying concept

Temporal pattern, X-

axis

Spatial pattern, X-axis

Institutional challenge at turning point

X-linkage of actions in landscape

Core

Choice of Y-axis

1

2 3 4 5

6

Widening: area planted < area cleared Contracting: area planted > cleared

Tree cover transition

In the 1990’s loss of natural cover increased the amount of ‘low C-stock’/low economic value land; tree (crop) planting was 28% of the loss of natural forest area

After 2000 planting of tree (crop)s equals 90% of concurrent loss of natural forest; the amount of low C-stock/low economic value land decreases

Local elites

Local com-munities

Local norms and rules on land tenure

National government

Local government

Agrarian and forest laws, development policies

Migrant pioneers

Migrant followers

Migrant norms and expecta-tions on land tenure

Conces-sionairs

Labour force

Business plans and expecta-tions on land tenure

Current ABCD interaction drives ‘business as usual’ development

and emission trajectories

Alternate ABCD interactions with Free and Prior Informed Consent are needed

for High-C-Stock Development pathways

Galudra et al., submitted

e.g. ADSB reports 2007/8

NPV, $/Ha

Carb

on s

tock

, tC/

Ha

Slope indicates emissions per gain in $/ha

Tradeoff at land use system level

oppo

rtun

ity c

ost,

$/t C

O2e

,

Cumulative emissions

Emission reduction poten-tial for given C price

Opportunity cost at landcape scale

Rural income (increasing)

Rural income (declining)

C stock (increasing)

C stock (decreasing)

Dynamic land use scenario model

Agents with variation in resource base, moti-vation, live-lihood stra-tegies.interactingwith rules & policies Agent-based land use change model

e.g. ASB-II reports of 1990’s

e.g. FALLOW scenarios

I II

III

IV

Four levels of analyzing opportunity costs

3. Interlinkage & leakageLow intensity swiddening

maintains forestLogging & mining

concessions harvest large trees & create

road accessPost-logging institutional

vacuum allows settlers

Over-capacity of wood-based industry => demand for

‘illegal logging’

Economic opportunity of oil

palm, rubber, coffee attracts

large- & small-scale planters

Forest tenure reform creates incentives for

tree planting

Fallow => agroforest

Swiddening intensifies, fire cycle

starts

Industrial timber

plantations

Drivers of tree cover change

Van Noordwijk

et al., 2011

This issue can be/has been resolved by nesting REDD+ within a broader land-based NAMA (REALU) framework in Indonesia’s national & regional GHG reduction plans

4. Peat outside ‘forest’

Huge percentage of emissions from LUC areassociated with low economic benefit

Opportunity costs vary from place to place

ADSB 2007 results for Indonesia

4. Peat outside ‘forest’

This issue can be/has been resolved by nesting REDD+ within a broader land-based NAMA (REALU) framework in Indonesia’s national & regional GHG reduction plans

De facto REDD pilot projects have included peatland issues regardless of international scope and definitions; in Durban peatland restoration was recognized as potential CDM activity

5. Fairness & efficiency

Value chain

Fairness argument:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B11kASPfYxY

Payments for environmental services (PES), or non-provisioning ecosystem services, target alignment of micro-

economic incentives for land users with meso- and macro-economic societal costs and benefits of their choices

across stakeholders and scales

They can interfere with or comple-ment social norms and rights-based approach-es at generic (land use plan-ning) and in-dividual (tenure, use rights) levels, and with macro-econo-mic policies influencing the drivers to which individual agents respond.

PES concepts need to adapt. Multiple para-digms have emerged within the broad PES domain.

Forms of “co-investment in stewardship” alongside rights are the preferred entry point

Expected to be on-line by August 15

Providers, Beneficiaries, ‘Sellers’ ‘Buyers’

Intermediary, Broker

MvN Fig3A

Intermediary, Broker

Providers, Beneficiaries, ‘Sellers’ ‘Buyers’‘Co-investors’ ‘Co-investors’

MvN Fig3B

Respect, Image, Knowledge

Free and Prior Informed Consent of sovereign decision makers

Finance: invest-ment, payment

Certified Emission Reduction

Legend:

Local sectors/areas: communities, households

C RED

D

valu

e ch

ain

Inve

stm

ent/

pa

ymen

t

Sustainable livelihood Reducing direct drivers support of emissions

Additionality ~ baselineLeakage/displacement

Trus

t/th

reat

rel

ation

s

International rules, fund/market

Subnational sectors/areas private sector

Local sectors/areas private sector

Monitoring C stocks & project cycle aspects

Fairness/Transparency Efficiency/Clarity

International border

Nested baselines, certi-fied emission reduction

Coreidentity

Environmental quality, health

Branding as basis for market share

Global trade and investment relations

Economic growth with acceptable distributional effects

Food sufficiency as prerequisite for political stability in cities and supportive electorates

Territorial integrity and security of the state, international independence, domestic bounded local autonomy

Moti

vatio

nal p

yram

id d

rivin

g go

vern

men

t dec

ision

s

Knowledge, awareness

I. Awareness II. Readiness III. Implementation at scale

Self-articulated NAMA

REDD+ ER-p

erfo

rman

ce b

ased

fina

nce,

with

so

me

inte

rnati

onal

ER

addi

tiona

lity

EET Self-

regu

lato

ory

resp

onse

to

redu

ce C

foo

trpi

tns

in t

rade

UNFCCC negotiations of rules of the game

Rent-seeking elites

REDD rents compete with forest rents

Our exports are threatened…

We care…

Ecological & social safeguards

Nov 2007 – ahead of Bali COP:

Issue 1,2 & 4 can be/has been resolved

by nesting REDD+ within a broader land-

based NAMA (REALU) framework in Indone-

sia’s national & regional GHG reduction plans Issue 3 & 5 have progressed in

recognition, moving beyond denial and defensiveness, but there is a

considerable way to go

Five challenges:1.Scope,definitions

2.Peat outside ‘forest’3.Rights, legality

4.Interlinkage and leakage5.Fairness & efficiency

Tony La Vina – this morning at IETA/ASB/IISD event

“The stronger emission reduction commitments needed to make REDD work through private sector

involvement in regulated markets is not going to come from this COP, not until 2015”

“I’ve personally shifted attention and hope to a more integrated approach that combines REDD+,

agriculture and all land-based activities”

Is the window of opportunity for REDD+ closing? COP-18, Doha, Qatar (EU Pavilion): 29 November 2012, 18:00-20:00

Ucayali, Peru

Southern Cameroon Jambi,

Indonesia

Vietnam

Reducing Emissions

from Deforestation

and Degradation

through Alternative Landuses Embracing

Rainforests of the Tropics

Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, UKUniversité Catholique de Louvain, BelgiumVrije Universiteit Amsterdam, NetherlandsGeorg August University of Göttingen, GermanyICRAF, IITA, CIAT, CIFOR, ASB-partners in Indonesia, Vietnam, Cameroon, Peru