indus basin challenges & opportunities ......contribution of snow and ice western river stations...

INDUS BASIN CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES(Perspective from India)

Shakil A RomshooDept. of Earth Sciences

Kashmir University

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

A FEW THOUGHTS

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

SHRINKING CRYOSPHERE

STREAMFLOW CHANGES

HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT

GROUNDWATER SCENARIO

LAND SYSTEM CHANGES

COMMON CONCERNS

• INDICATORS of CC are loud and clear in the UIB

• We have lost ~ 20% of the GLACIAL MASS during

last 5-6 decades in the UIB

• Significant DECLINE IN THE STREAMFLOWS

since 1990s due to the depletion of cryosphere

• SHIFTING hydrograph peaks, change in the FORM

of precipitation and LOW STORAGE CAPACITY are

a CONCERN.

• USAGE OF WATER entitled under IWT is under-

utilized mainly due to the land system changes &

topographic constraints

• GW over-exploitation is an important concern in

the LIB

A few Thoughts….

• Huge Hydropower Development in the UIB

• Implications of depleting cryosphere under changing

climate on water, energy and food security are far-

reaching in the Indus basin

• How much water is stored in the Indus cryosphere?

• Lack of Data Sharing in the basin

• Water issues if not understood in the right perspective

have potential to COMPLICATE THE SOUTH

ASIAN SECURITY

• SCIENCE should guide public policy/ planning &

diplomacy (ENV/Water sharing/CC adaptation)

A few thought….

OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TRENDS

Negi et al., 2018

WINTER PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY

Negi et al., 2018

FORM OF PRECIPITATION

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Av

era

ge_T

em

pera

ture

(0C

)

Average Temperature (Dec. & Jan.) DISCHARGE

RAINSSNOW

11

Source: WAPDA

Contribution of Snow and Ice

Western River StationsApproximate

Contribution of

Snow and Ice

Period

Annual

Inflows

(MAF)

Ice and

Snow

Contrib.

(MAF)

Indus at Tarbela 85%

1961-

2013 60.72 51.6

Kabul at Nowshera 75%

1961-

2013 21.65 16.2

Jhelum at Mangla 65%

1961-

2013 22.20 14.4

Chenab at Marala 50%

1961-

2013 25.36 12.7

Western Rivers Average Inflows 129.93 MAF

Total Western Rivers Snow and

Ice Contribution 95.0 MAF

Total Contribution of Snow and

Ice in Western Rivers73.1 % 12

STREAMFLOW PARTITIONING

Snow melt Glacier melt Rainfall

54.83% 6.14% 38.03%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

% Snowfall

Rainfall

Snow Precipitation = ~ 52%

Liquid Precipitation = ~48%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1971-801981-901991-002001-102011-13

Dic

har

ge(C

use

cs)

Time Period(Year)

Aru Spring

Summer

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13

Dis

char

ge(C

use

cs)

Time Period(Year)

Sheshnag Summer

Spring

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13

Dis

char

ge(C

use

cs)

Time Period(Years)

BatkootSpring

Summer

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13

Dis

char

ge(C

use

cs)

Time Period(Years)

Akura Spring

Summer

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13

Axi

s Ti

tle

Axis Title

Kirkadal Spring

Summer

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13

Dis

char

ge(C

use

cs)

Time Period(Years)

Gur Spring

Summer

Summer and Spring Streamflow

Modelling streamflows under Changing Climate

Snowfall Percentage

Snowmelt Contribution

Baseline 2050s 2070s

~52%~40.4

%~41.1%

2050s 2070s

~18.5% ~19%

Baseline 2050s 2070s

~52% ~38% ~35%

2050s 2070s

~23% ~31%

Baselin

e2050s 2070s

~52% ~34% ~29%

2050s 2070s

~31% ~44%

RCP 2.6

RCP 4.5

RCP 8.5

UNPUBLISHED WORK

BCC CSM1-1 BNU ESM GFDL CM3 INM CM4 IPSL CM5A-LR MIROC5 CGM3 NorESM1-M

HYDROPOWER SCENARIO

• Rapid Economic Development

• Staggering Population Growth

• Thirsty farms

Depletion of 1 ft of GW annually equivalent to

109 Cubic Km of GW disappeared between 2002-08

ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS

Before After

1973 1991

2001 2013

1983

2026

2038 2050

LA

ND

SY

ST

EM

CH

AN

GE

S IN

KA

SH

MIR

(1973

-20

50

)

SHRINKING WETLANDS AND WATER BODIES(WULLAR LAKE SINCE 1911)

Concerns on Indus Water Sharing

COMMON CONCERNS

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS

SHRINKING CRYOSPHERE AND DEPLETING

STREAMFLOWS

DEPLETING GW RESOURCES

CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF HP PROJECTS

WATER USE EFFICIENCY

FLOOD VUNERABILITY

EFFICIENT DATA SHARING

ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS

28

Thank you