inflation report august 2012 money and asset prices

Inflation Report August 2012

Money and asset prices

Chart 1.1 Bank Rate and forward market interest rates(a)

Sources: Bank of England and Bloomberg.

(a) The May 2012 and August 2012 curves are estimated using overnight index swap rates in the fifteen working days to 9 May 2012 and 1 August 2012 respectively.

Chart 1.2 Selected European ten-year government bond yields(a)

Source: Bloomberg.

(a) Yields to maturity on ten-year benchmark government bonds.

Chart 1.3 UK gilt yields relative to yields on German andUS government debt(a)

Sources: Bloomberg and Bank calculations.

(a) Spread between ten-year spot zero-coupon yields.

Chart 1.4 UK five-year and ten-year nominal spot gilt yields and five-year yields, five years forward(a)

Sources: Bloomberg and Bank calculations.

(a) Zero-coupon yield.(b) Derived from the Bank’s government liability curves.

Chart 1.5 Sterling exchange rates

Chart 1.6 Option-implied asymmetries for selected bilateral exchange rates(a)

Sources: Bloomberg, British Bankers’ Association and Bank calculations.

(a) Three-month measure. Option-implied asymmetries are measured by the skewness of the distribution of three-month foreign exchange returns implied by options price data. Returns are defined as the logarithmic difference between current forward rates and the spot rate.

Chart 1.7 International equity prices(a)

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream.

(a) In local currency terms.

Chart 1.8 Term issuance by the major UK lenders inpublic markets(a)

Sources: Bank of England, Dealogic and Bank calculations.

(a) Data are as at 1 August 2012. Data are shown at a quarterly frequency. Includes debt issued by Bank of Ireland, Barclays, Co-operative Financial Services, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, National Australia Bank, Nationwide, Northern Rock, Royal Bank of Scotland and Santander UK. Term issuance refers here to securities with an original contractual maturity or earliest call date of at least 18 months.

(b) Comprises medium-term notes, subordinated debt, unguaranteed senior debt and guaranteed senior debt issued under HM Treasury’s Credit Guarantee Scheme.(c) Comprises covered bonds, CMBS, RMBS and other ABS.

Chart 1.9 UK banks’ indicative longer-term funding spreads

Sources: Bank of England, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Markit Group Limited and Bank calculations.

(a) Sterling only. Spread over the three-year swap rate. The three-year retail bond rate is a weighted average of rates from banks and building societies within the Bank of England’snormal quoted rate sample with products meeting the specific criteria (see www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Pages/iadb/notesiadb/household_int.aspx).

(b) The data show a simple average of the five-year CDS premia of Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Nationwide, Royal Bank of Scotland and Santander UK.(c) From January 2012 onwards, the data show a weighted average of the spread between covered bonds of any maturity issued by UK banks and equivalent-maturity swap rates,

weighted by the outstanding value of each bond. Before January 2012, the data show a simple average and include bonds with a maturity of between three and five years only.

Chart 1.10 Three-month spot and forward Libor rates(a)

Sources: Bloomberg and British Bankers’ Association.

(a) The dashed lines for May 2012 and August 2012 show average forward rates derived from forward rate agreements over the fifteen working days to 9 May 2012 and 1 August 2012 respectively.

Chart 1.11 Credit Conditions Survey: changes in spreadson corporate loans by company size(a)

(a) Weighted responses of lenders. Changes over the past three months. The diamonds show lenders’ expectations for the next three months, reported in the 2012 Q2 survey.(b) Data are only available from 2009 Q4.

Chart 1.12 Bank Rate and quoted interest rates on newhousehold borrowing(a)

(a) Sterling-only end-month average quoted rates. The Bank’s quoted interest rates series are weighted averages of rates from a sample of banks and building societies with products meeting the specific criteria (see www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Pages/iadb/notesiadb/household_int.aspx). The final observations are for June 2012.

(b) Quoted interest rate on a £10,000 personal loan.(c) Two-year fixed-rate mortgage.(d) Series has not been published since April 2008 as fewer than three products have been offered in that period.(e) Series is only available on a consistent basis back to May 2008, and is not published for March to May 2009 as fewer than three products were offered in that period.

Chart 1.13 Loans to individuals

Chart 1.14 Broad money and nominal GDP

(a) M4 excluding intermediate other financial corporations (OFCs). Intermediate OFCs are: mortgage and housing credit corporations; non-bank credit grantors; bank holdingcompanies; securitisation special purpose vehicles; and other activities auxiliary to financial intermediation. In addition to the deposits of these five types of OFCs, sterling depositsarising from transactions between banks or building societies and ‘other financial intermediaries’ belonging to the same financial group are excluded from this measure of broad money. The latest observation is 2012 Q2.

(b) At current market prices. The latest observation is 2012 Q1.

Chart 1.15 Sectoral broad money(a)

(a) Monthly data unless otherwise specified.(b) Quarterly data. Intermediate OFCs are defined as in Chart 1.14.

Tables

Table 1.A PNFCs’ net external finance raised(a)

(a) Includes sterling and foreign currency funds.(b) Non seasonally adjusted.(c) Includes stand-alone and programme bonds.(d) As component series are not all seasonally adjusted, the total may not equal the sum of its components.

The Funding for Lending Scheme

Chart A New Bank Rate tracker mortgage rate, Bank Rateand an estimate of banks’ marginal funding cost

Sources: Bank of England, British Bankers’ Association, Markit Group Limited and Bank calculations.

(a) On mortgages with a loan to value ratio of 75%. Data are to June 2012.(b) The estimated marginal funding cost of extending variable-rate sterling-denominated loans. This is calculated as the sum of three-month Libor plus a weighted average of the

five-year CDS premia of the major UK lenders used in Chart 1.9. Weights are based on banks’ shares of new household secured lending, and for July 2012, the weights are fixed at June 2012 values. Marginal funding costs may vary across lenders. Lenders with a greater proportion of retail funding may also consider the cost of deposits when assessing their marginal funding cost.