insurance loss estimating using · material properties imported from dippr database ... specify...

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C A K E R N G I N E E R I N G A N D I S K O N S U L T A N T S

Insurance Loss Estimating

using

BakerRisk’s MaxLoss Program

OPERA Meeting

Oct 29th, 2013

MaxLoss Major Features

Interfaces with a variety of commercial CAD &

other mapping software (jpg, dgn, bmp..etc)

Process blocks, scenarios, BI vulnerable

equipment, PPF zones, buildings, etc. are

defined using a graphical user interface

Material properties imported from DIPPR

database

New correlation for “blast overpressure to

equipment rupture to fire escalation”

MaxLoss Major Features

State-of-the-art consequence models:

Source term

Vapor dispersion (if needed)

Flammable mass quantification

Latest BakerRisk blast technology but also includes TNT & TNO

Pool, jet, and flash fires

BLEVE and high pressure equipment rupture (BPV)

MaxLoss Major Features

New correlation for “blast overpressure to

equipment rupture to fire escalation”

Quickly and efficiently analyze numerous

scenarios to determine EML PD estimates

BI vulnerabilities

Input data in any unit (change on-the-fly)

Tables and figures readily extracted to Excel

&Word reports

MS Platform

Materials Library

Library of common materials and capability to

create mixture definitions

In Source/Discharge module, pure component

and mixture material properties referenced by

specifying material name

Energy calculations are automated since heat of

combustion, stoichiometric ratios and other

properties are part of material record

Materials Definition

Source Definition and Discharge

Prediction

Specify tank leak (finite inventory) or pump +

pipe (infinite inventory) leak

Specify material phase, tank dimensions (if

necessary), leak location, inventory ( if

necessary), impingement conditions

One mouse click gives initial condition

discharge rates

The following slides are from SafeSite3GTM;

MaxLoss 2.0 input screens would be simplified

Source Definition and Discharge

Prediction

Process Blocks /PES

Blocks located by clicking on map, geometry

data appears on definition screen

MaxLoss process blocks include congestion

and confinement and connectivity information

Congestion, confinement data used in MaxLoss

2.0 include Baker-Strehlow-Tang blast analyses

Geometry data automatically completed by

clicking on map

VCE Testing to develop BST Method

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MaxLoss 2.0 Process Block Definition

Vulnerable Equipment

MaxLoss 2.0 can add vulnerable equipment and

has easy to use interface

Equipment located by clicking on map,

geometry data appears on definition screen

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MaxLoss 2.0 PPF (Definition)

Scenario Definition

MaxLoss 2.0 includes four types of release

scenarios

Modeled Release TNT Scenarios

Modeled Release BST Scenarios

User-Defined TNT Scenarios

User-Defined BST Scenarios

Modeled Release Scenarios - Energies computed

from source/discharge data

User-Defined Scenarios - Energies input by user

Calculate Contours

Cloud Drift

MaxLoss 2.0 On-Line Help

Context-sensitive: when you query help from a

form, the relevant topic appears

Search by index keyword, table of contents, or a

text string you specify

Current Developments

FC Curves…

QRA study includes information of explosion

pressures, impulse, flammability, toxicity and

thermal exposures

Data is plotted as an FN curve

FN curves provide a graph of Frequency (F)

and Number of Fatalities (N)

Insurance Risk Assessments consider a history

of previous accidents and the supposed

pressures that caused property loss

Results are labeled in %Loss Contours (90%,

70%,10% etc)

How to obtain FC data

Using the QRA data; reliability and

consequence data from a previous consequence

study you obtain FN curves

We then apply the Insurance loss data to the

results of consequence (pressures from

explosions) and obtain loss estimates of process

units.

We can now generate a Frequency – Cost (FC)

curve and yield probability of given property

damage ($)

QRA and IRE data

Deliverables

Results include:

FC Curve (Frequency-Cost)

Process Block Risk

FC Data Table

Detailed FC Results

Sensitivity studies can be performed as well for select consequences or select process blocks

FC Curves per Process Block

…or for the entire facility