integrated gas and electricity modelling paul deane gas - electricity interactions workshop june...

Integrated Gas and Electricity Modelling

Paul Deane

Gas - Electricity Interactions Workshop

June 2014

*

Title

Integrated Gas and electricity Modelling

What Impact will variable renewables have on the gas system?

Long term modelling to 2050

Overview of Presentation

Overview of Integrated Elec/Gas Model

Builds on existing PLEXOS Power System model

The Simplified Integrated Gas Model provides the capability to model the costs and constraints of gas delivery from its source fields via a network of pipelines, through storages and on to meet demands including those in the Electric Model.

This integrated Gas/Electric Model is not intended to perform the function of a gas pipeline flow model. Rather, it uses a simple transportation algorithm to model gas flows

Details of pipeline pressures and pressure drop functions not modelled. Storage volumes, pipeline flows and gas demands can be expressed in potential energy terms

• 2030 Model is a sub set of larger EU model.

• 15 minute resolution• Gas model is currently only

in AI• Day Ahead and Real Time

Modes (Stochastic or Independent samples)

Model Coverage

2030 Gas Model Inputs

 2030 EU PRIMES Final

Demand Units Notes

Industrial Demand 656 (685) ktoe Normalised DM Data

Residential Demand 764 (600) ktoe Smart Meter Data

Services Demand 336 (400) ktoe Flat profile (needs to be improved)

Elec Gen - ktoe Optimised in Model

Moffat     Daily Limits on Flow*

Kinsale Storage 8613 TJ  

Kinsale Max Withdrawal (day) 97 TJ  

Kinsale Max Injection (day) 63 TJ  

Corrib 0   Not Currently in 2030 model

Biomethane Injection     Currently in model

Addition of Gas objects will impact on objective function to be minimized

This can impact solution even if gas constraints are not binding Generally small Test and determine if significant Use MIP or smaller gap

Integrated Gas and Electricity Modelling

With GasWithout Gas

ROI Gas and Wind Generation

‘Flow’- Quantity of Gas Extracted from Pipeline (TJ)

Capacity Factors for CCGT

Annual Gas Storage (Simplified Gas Price)

Long term modelling

Only those countries with at least one MARKAL/TIMES modelling team active during the period are “painted.”

>200 MARKAL / TIMES Users

Irish TIMES Integrated Energy Systems Model• Linear programming bottom-up energy model • Integrated model of the entire energy system • Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (20 - 50

years)– Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units

• Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect market) • Optimal technology selection • Minimize the total system cost • Environmental constraints• Energy and emission permits trading• Price-elastic demands

Ireland Energy System 2012

Imports13,407 ktoe155 TWh

Indigenous1,304 ktoe15,165 GWh

Elec - TFC2,078 ktoe24,167 GWh

1,821 ktoe22,178 GWh

4,304 ktoe50,055 GWh

2,715 ktoe31,575 GWh

2,226 ktoe25,888 GWh

1,349 ktoe15,688 GWh

250 ktoe2,907 GWh

Oil - TPER8,307 ktoe96,610 GWh

Gas – TPER4,029 ktoe46,857 GWh

Energy Scenarios to 2050: C02-80

Energy Scenarios to 2050: C02-95

Implications for the Economy (€/t CO2)

Conclusions

• Strong technical and financial challenges ahead for gas fired plant

• Long term role of gas is dependant on emission reduction ambitions and targets

• CCS, Bioenergy availability are key technology risks

• Policy: 2030 Climate and Energy targets

Thank you

www.ucc.ie/energypolicy and