international conference: regional trade integration in south east europe: benefits and challenges...

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE: REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION IN SOUTH EAST EUROPE: BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES

BILATERAL VERSUS MULTILATERAL APPROACH TOWARDS REGIONAL

INTEGRATION IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE

Prof. Biljana Sekulovska-Gaber

University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius”

Faculty of Economics

Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

Personal presentation Introducing the title (bilateral

vs. multilateral approach)

"European project" has always had clear political

and security implications

Presentation of the plan Time for questions

The plan

Session IPolitical dimension of cooperation in the Region ofSoutheast Europe

Session IIEconomic dimension of cooperation in the Region

ofSoutheast Europe

Session IIIResults on political stability and good-neighbors

relations Conclusions and discussion

Regional cooperation = closer to EU membership?

INTRODUCTION

European "Story" ( read "Project” ) continues

Why regional cooperation is one of the consistent elements of European integration? Lessons learnt in the region of SEE (“Balkanization”)

Multilateral versus Bilateral approach

Stability Pact (Commission Communication of May 1999: multilateral - words)

Democratization and human rights Economic cooperation, reconstruction and

development Security questions

SAP (Conclusions of General Affairs Council of June 21, 1999: bilateral - action)

The development of existing economic and trade relations with the EU

and the region The development/partial reorientation of existing

economic and financial

assistance Increased assistance for democratisation, civil society,

education and

institution-building The use of new opportunities for cooperation in

various fields (including

justice and home affairs) The development of political dialogue, including

regional level

I. POLITICAL DIMENSION

Enriching SP with RCC as successor (2008)

First comprehensive conflict prevention strategy (lack of own legal body that would ensure its funding)

Use of significant peer pressure

From post-conflict reconstruction to democratic reforms (EC as a member of RCC)

RCC as a “waiting room” until the next wave of EU enlargement?

Forum to strengthen political stability and good – neighbors relationsand not only a platform to channel funds

II. ECONOMIC DIMENSION

Does CEFTA-2006 fosters regional trade?

Problems with trade data (underreporting and institutional weakness)

Regional distribution of exports (EU is the most important trading partner)

Export structure after entering into force of CEFTA-2006 (neighbors are back)

Economic development in turn favors stability and security

II. ECONOMIC DIMENSION

Albania Bosnia &

Herzegovina

Croatia Republic of

Macedonia

Serbia &

Montenegro

EU-25 90.6 54.0 64.6 57.0 53.4

SEE-5 1.7 37.6 19.3 28.9 28.5

Albania 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.6

Bosnia &

Herzegovina

0.1 14.4 2.0 17.0

Croatia 0.1 20.4 4.8 4.1

Republic of

Macedonia

1.2 0.8 0.9 6.8

Serbia 0.4 16.2 3.7 20.8

Regional Export structure, 2004

II. ECONOMIC DIMENSION

Export structure in the region of SEE, 2008

Albania Bosnia &

Herzegovina

Croatia Republic of

Macedonia

Serbia &

Montenegro

Serbia

Albania 0.3 1.6 5

Bosnia &

Herzegovina0.32 20.86 0.1 2.75 9.93

Croatia 0.28 14.4 0.95 1.25 5.36

Republic of

Macedonia2.17 2.62 4.88 0.82 19.05

Montenegro 1.63 4.55 1.4 0.32 27.41

Kosovo 12.6 3.2 1.1 10.5 1.8 11.7

Serbia 0.97 12.2 4.0 4.5 11.7

TOTAL 17.97 36.97 32.24 17.97 18.32 48.45

III. RESULTS

Signed SAAs and NATO membership of Albania and Croatia (April 1, 2009)

Free and fair elections (Albania and Macedonia, 2009 and 2011)

Ethnic reconciliation and democratization (return of refugees and IDPs)

Announcement by EC for visa liberalization by the end of 2009 and 2010

Progressive and moderate government in Serbia (arrest of Radovan Karadzic

and Radko Mladic)

Positive developments

III. RESULTS

Kosovos’s declaration of independence -2008 (the speed could be different)

Independence of Montenegro, gaining the candidate status and waiting to

start negotiatins

Improvement of economic and investment climate (Transition=Accession)

Efforts to reduce poverty in the region

Effects of temporary or circular migration

Positive developments (continued)

Multilateral (SP) vs, bilateral approach (SAP and SAA) = assume of regional ownership

Regional cooperation was not artificially imposed but emerged from a need to become a part of European Area of Stability, Security and Prosperity

Speeding up the transition and achievement of European goals

Change in perception of “Balkanization” (Political and Economic Benefits –reduction of likelihood for conflicts)

CEFTA – 2006 = Finally “back” to regionalist theory (neighbors are back!)

Trade fosters economic cooperation and strengthens political stability and good-neighbors relations, thus brings the SEE Region closer to the EU

DISCUSSION

Regional cooperation = closer to EU membership!?

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

Prof. Biljana Sekulovska-Gabergaber@eccf.ukim.edu.mk