international monetary exchange in theory lecture 11 – tuesday, 18 october 2011 j a morrison 1...
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International Monetary Exchange in Theory
Lecture 11 – Tuesday, 18 October 2011J A Morrison 1
Satirical Cartoon of John Law’s Mississippi Scheme (Paris, 1720)
We’re at another turning point in the course…
2
PS 0304 Int’l Pol Econ• Unit 1: Studying the Global Economy
– Topic 1: Introductory– Topic 2: Perspectives on IPE– Topic 3: Explaining Foreign Economic Policy
• Unit 2: Trading Goods & Services– Topic 4: Trade in Theory– Topic 5: Trade in Practice
• Unit 3: The International Monetary System– Topic 6: The IMS in Theory– Topic 7: The IMS in Practice
• Unit 4: Migration• Unit 5: Special Topics in IPE 3
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Lec 11: Money in Theory
I. Introductory: Money is HardII. The Basics of Monetary
Exchange
III.The International ConnectionIV.Exchange Rate Politics
4
Lec 11: Money in Theory
I. Introductory: Money is HardII. The Basics of Monetary
Exchange
• The International Connection• Exchange Rate Politics
5
Before we launch into the specifics of international
monetary exchange, let’s step back to consider international
monetary exchange in the context of international trade.
How does money compare to trade?
6
Simply put, money is hard…
Money is hard for us—the academicians—to understand.
And it is hard for policymakers to control.
7
Money is Hard for Us
• Less familiar than trade• More abstract than trade & migration• Money has changed more over time
– Variation in policies: fixed versus flexible• akin to change in trade policy: liberal
versus managed
– But money itself might be different: commodity currency is governed by different rules than is fiat currency
8
Money is Hard for Policymakers
• More difficult to understand• Imprecise, blunt instruments• Money is more mobile more
difficult to control• Severe market constraints: attacks,
competition, counterfeiting, contagion, &c.
9
So, the international monetary system is more difficult for
policymakers to manage than is trade.
But, arguably, the stakes are higher…
10
Money Matters• The downside risk is greater
– Collapse of trade: ouch!– Currency collapse catastrophic!
• All interests are affected– Some groups rely relatively little on trade– Everyone uses money tighter coupling with
macroeconomic effects
• Damage is harder to repair– Violating a trade agreement causes upset– States spend decades trying to repair
reputations after currency disorders
11
Here’s our plan…
We’ll proceed as we did for trade: first theory, then empirics.
Be prepared that money will be challenging. I’ll do my best to
unpack the key terms and concepts. But you might have to
turn things up a notch.
12
I. Introductory: Money is HardII. The Basics of Monetary
Exchange
• The International Connection• Exchange Rate Politics
13
Lec 11: Money in Theory
II. BASICS OF MONETARY EXCHANGE
1. Background on Money• Monetary Systems
14
It’s easy to understand why we trade goods & services:
the benefits of specialization are readily
apparent.
Understanding the invention and use of money,
however, is less immediately obvious. 15
Money serves three functions…
16
(1) Medium of Exchange
17
• Money resolves “double coincidence of wants problem”
Individual Has Wants
John A Fedora Air Jordans
Adam Air Jordans A Sweater Vest
Maynard A Sweater Vest A Fedora
What are the chances that you’ll encounter someone who has what you want and wants what you have?
Hint: < Finding True Love
Money evolves as a means to resolve this problem.
Individuals accept a common good with certain characteristics (high value
to bulk ratio, divisible, durable, uniform in quality) that becomes the common
medium of exchange. 18
(2) Store of Value
19
• Money allows individuals to convert perishables into more durable goods
• This allows:– Storing value between transactions– Saving by hoarding cash
(3) Unit of Account
20
• Money provides a standard relationship between various g&s in the economy
Using a standard unit simplifies accounting and transactions immensely
Non-standard Unit Standard Unit
1 Blazer = 2 Air Jordans Blazer = $200
2 Blazers = 5 Fedoras Air Jordans = $100
4 Air Jordans = 5 Fedoras
Fedora = $80
II. BASICS OF MONETARY EXCHANGE
1. Background on Money• Monetary Systems
21
Across history, nations have chosen a wide variety of materials
to serve as money.
The ancient Greeks used cattle, some Native Americans used
wampum, and the early Chinese used cowry shells.
Today, most countries use “paper” currency, which is usually made
from cotton and/or linen. 22
For most of history, in most places, markets came to rely on specie--minted, precious metal
coins.
23
We can organize monetary systems according to the various
values of the money…
24
The Values of Money• Intrinsic Value: market value of the
currency’s constituent material when used for non-monetary purposes– E.g. gold coin sold as material for jewelry
• Exchange Value: market value of the currency when used as currency in trade– E.g. gold coin used to purchase jewelry
• Extrinsic/Nominal Value: “official” value and/or units– E.g. “1 shilling,” “1 dollar” 25
Monetary systems can be grouped along a continuum according to
the gap between the intrinsic and the exchange values of the
currency.
26
Types of Monetary Systems
27
Monetary System Type
Intrinsic Value
Exchange Value
Gap Examples
Commodity Money
Relatively High
High Narrow or None
England in 1690s; Chinese Cowry Shells
Fiat Money Relatively Low
High Very Large USD today; Euro today
Seigniorage• Historical Origin: charge at mint to
convert raw material into currency– Also called “brassage” or “coinage”
• Modern Usage: “the excess of the nominal value of a currency over its cost of production” (Cohen, Future of Money, 18)
• Implications:– Revenue source for state– Creates incentive to counterfeit—(the
unauthorized creation of currency)
28
Seigniorage and Monetary Systems
• Commodity Money– High seigniorage might be viewed as
revenue source (e.g. 18th C France)– Low or no seigniorage would subsidize
exports and encourage capital inflows (e.g. 18th C Britain)
• Fiat Money– Seigniorage is necessarily high;
seigniorage creates the difference of value between intrinsic and exchange values
29
The historical trend is clearly away from commodity money and toward fiat
money.
Policymakers generally prefer fiat money because (1) they gain increased revenue from seigniorage; and (2) the market imposes fewer constraints on
monetary policy when using fiat money.
But the power to “print” money is frequently abused. Some economists,
like FA Hayek, appreciated the discipline imposed by commodity money systems.30
I. Introductory: Money is HardII. The Basics of Monetary
Exchange
III.The International Connection• Exchange Rate Politics
31
Lec 11: Money in Theory
III. THE INTERNATIONAL CONNECTION
1. The Nth Currency2. Exchange Rate Regimes• The Balance of Payments
32
The same logic that impels the development of a common medium of
exchange within economies impels the adoption of international media of
exchange between economies.
Such a currency is sometimes called the Nth
Currency.33
Gold & silver previously performed this role.
After WWII, the US dollar was the preeminent Nth
Currency.
Today, the dollar faces competition from the Euro, the Yen, and the Renminbi. 34
“The United States would be mistaken to take for granted the
dollar’s place as the world’s predominant reserve currency…
Looking forward, there will increasingly be other options to
the dollar.”
-- World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick (26 Sept 2009)
(Source: NYT 28 Sept 2009)
35
Why would foreign states move away from holding the dollar in reserve and
using the dollar in international exchanges?
36
Because the dollar doesn’t perform the
functions of money as well as it used to!
37
The Dollar’s Declining Role
• Medium of Exchange– US share of total GATT/WTO Member
GDP• 1948: ~65%• 2001: ~38%
(Source: Barton, et al, p 13)
• Store of Value– Market price of gold (per ounce) in $US
• 1945: $35/ounce• 14 Oct 2009: $1063/ounce• 11 Oct 2010: $1348/ounce
38
The Falling Value of the USD
39
III. THE INTERNATIONAL CONNECTION
1. The Nth Currency2. Exchange Rate Regimes• The Balance of Payments
40
How do states determine their relationships to the Nth Currency, whatever it
might be?
41
Through their exchange rate regimes.
42
An exchange rate (ER) is the specific valuation between domestic currency and a
foreign/international currency/commodity.
43
British Pounds (GBP) per Dollar (USD)
A state’s exchange rate regime is the set of rules
that determine the relationship (including
valuation) between domestic currency and
foreign currencies, the Nth currency, and/or key
commodities.44
(For now, we assume governments enjoy monetary sovereignty, the
ability to control the market value of their currencies.)
45
How States Regulate the Value of the Currency
• Intervention in Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market– Buy/sell reserves of domestic currency, foreign
currency, and/or a key commodity to directly affect market prices
• Adjust Quantity via Monetary Policy– Open Market Operations– Fractional Reserve Rate– Discount Rate (Interest Rate)
• By Proclamation and/or Price Controls– “What was previously worth $1 shall now be worth
$5.”– “Grain shall not be sold for less than $5 per bushel.”– “One Pound shall not be traded for more or less
than $4.86.”46
States can regulate the value of the currency vis-à-
vis:
47
- Foreign currency(ies)- Key commodity(ies)- The overall national price level
Is it possible to fix a currency with respect to several things
simultaneously?
Not usually.
Different parts of the economy grow at different rates.
Maintaining stability with respect to one generally precludes stability with respect to the
others.
48
Pick a Price, Any Single Price
• Assume Different Rates of Growth– World supply of gold: 2%– US GDP: 3%– British GDP: 1%
• What should be rate of increase of US dollars?– Stable gold price: 2%– Stable overall price level: 3%– Stable ER vis-à-vis pound: 1%
Stability can only be maintained along one dimension at a time
49
Exchange rate regimes exist along a continuum: to what extent does the state use
its monetary sovereignty to maintain a stable exchange
rate in the market?
50
Exchange Rate Regimes
51
Intervention to Maintain Stability
Names of ER Regime Examples
High Fixed; Pegged GB on Gold Standard; Hong Kong Dollar
High Intervention with Periodic Adjustment
Fixed-but-Adjustable; Crawling Peg
Mexico in 1990s; Some Gold Standard Countries; China
Low or None Flexible; Floating; Free Float
US Dollar; Yen; GBP; Euro
-- We’ll sometimes simplify things, talking here in terms of regimes that are “fixed” and those that are and “flexible/adjustable.”
NOTE: the de facto fluctuations in market value may not always align with
the de jure regime…
52
Government management sometimes fails to achieve its
goal…
“Fixed” ER regimes do not always generate stable market
ERs.
53
And sometimes states claim to have “flexible” ERs but, in reality, regulate them such
that their market values remain stable.
54
Mexico & Switzerland in the 1990s
Country De Jure (Official) ER Regime
Market ER Trends
Mexico Fixed vis-à-vis the dollar
Volatility; de facto float
Switzerland Flexible Stability; de facto peg vis-à-vis the dollar
55Grieco & Ikenberry, 62.
So, again, note that the regime is determined by
what the monetary authority actually does, not
what it promises to do.
56
III. THE INTERNATIONAL CONNECTION
1. The Nth Currency2. Exchange Rate Regimes• The Balance of Payments
57
58
Bunsen, I thought we were done with
the balance of payments!!!Well, Dewb, I
thought you could use a refresher...
Remember that the balance of payments (BoP)
reconciles all of a country’s financial transactions with
the world.
This includes trade, remittances, investment,
loans, &c.59
You should also remember that the ER regime
determines, in part, how balance in the BoP is
maintained.
60
BoP Adjustment under Flexible ER Regime
61
How do states achieve balance while keeping the
ER fixed?
62
Remember this slide?
63
Lecture 6: Balance of Payments (Slide #38)
Reconciling the Balance of Payments with Fixed ER
64
1. Adjustment of Reserves2. Adjustment of Internal Prices &
Incomes 3. Exchange Rate (ER) Adjustment4. Exchange Controls
1. Capital Controls: Limit convertibility2. Commercial Policy
1. Adjustment of Reserves
65
2. Macroeconomic Adjustment
66
4.1 Capital Controls
67
4.2 Commercial Policy
68
I. Introductory: Money is HardII. The Basics of Monetary
Exchange
III.The International Connection• Exchange Rate Politics
69
Lec 11: Money in Theory
Note that the title of this section comes from Jeff Frieden’s piece.
We know from scholars like Frieden & Cohen that states’ choices about their exchange rates are intensely political.
So, we can draw on our theories of political economy to understand the political underpinnings of the international monetary system. 70
Systemic Theories: Distribution of Power
71
• Charles Kindleberger (1973)• International Monetary System
requires stabilization– Serve as lender of last resort– Provide liquidity
• Hegemonic Stability Theory: hegemon is willing and able to stabilize the system
Domestic Interests
72
• Jeff Frieden (1988); J. Lawrence Broz (1997)
• Like trade, exchange rate policy helps & hurts economic interests
• Interest groups will form coalitions to lobby for the policies that serve them
Domestic Institutions
73
• Karl Polanyi (1973)• Institutions mediate influence of
lobbying groups• E.g. Gold Standard
– GS benefits wealthy at the expense of the poor
– 19th C: workers were disorganized and unrepresented tolerate GS
– 20th C: empowered workers bring end to GS
Policymakers’ Ideas
74
• Keynes • Gold standard rested on the theory
that it maximized public good– Golden handcuffs restrained perfidious
politicians– Employment would take care of itself
• Abandoning GS required changing people’s minds!
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