introduction to the climate change session
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Introductionto the climate change session
Johann Bell
Vulnerability assessment
Supported by
Why are we so concerned?
• Peruvian anchovy
020N
40N
130E 150E
20S
160E120E 140E
170E 170W
180 160W 140W
10S
150W 130W
30S
30N10N • Skipjack tuna
1983 19981972
El NinoLa Nina
El Nino
Anch
ovet
a ca
tch
(mill
ion
t)
How could climate change derail our plans?
• Optimise contributions of tuna to economic development
• Provide sufficient fish for food security
•Maximise sustainable livelihoods from fisheries resources
Our approachProjected changes to atmospheric
and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks
Implications for economic development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations needed to maintain productivity - management and
policies
• Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Germany• Australian Institute of Marine Science• CSIRO• CLS, Satellite Oceanography Division, France• C20 Consulting, Australia• Danish Meteorological Institute • Forum Fisheries Agency• Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority• IFREMER• Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement • James Cook University• LSCE, IPSL, Paris, France• National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)• NOAA• Network of Aquaculture Centres for Asia -
Pacific
• Papua New Guinea National Fisheries Authority• Secretariat of the Pacific Community• Service de la Peche French Polynesia• Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation• Solomon Islands Ministry of Fisheries• SPREP• The WorldFish Center• University of Hawaii• University of Auckland• University of New South Wales• University of Queensland• University of Singapore• University of Tasmania• Vanuatu Fisheries Department• Virginia Institute of Marine Science, USA• Western Australia Department of Fisheries
Complex task
*Members of Technical Working Group
Main products1. Book‘Vulnerability of Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Tropical Pacific to Climate Change’
2. Summary for Policy Makers
•Products available October 2011 – to be launched at SPC Conference in Marshall Islands•Followed by a regional workshop in 2012 to translate main findings into priority adaptations
Today’s programmeProjected changes to atmospheric
and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks
Implications for economic development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations
x
Today’s programmePresentations before lunch (meet the experts!)Projected changes to Pacific surface climate Janice Lough AIMS
Projected changes to the Pacific Ocean Alex Ganachaud IRD
Vulnerability of freshwater fisheries Peter Gehrke SMEC
Vulnerability of aquaculture Tim Pickering SPC
Vulnerability of coastal fisheries Morgan Pratchett JCU
Vulnerability of oceanic fisheries Patrick Lehodey CLS
(Mangroves, seagrasses, intertidal flats) Michelle Waycott JCU
(Coral reefs) Ove Hoegh-Guldberg UQ
(Food webs for tuna) Robert Le Borgne IRD
(Co-editor) Johanna Johnson C20
Today’s programmePresentations after lunch
Implication for economic development, food security and livelihoods
Johann Bell SPC
Integrating fisheries and climate change initiatives
Johann Bell SPC
Monitoring the impacts on coastal fisheries Lindsay Chapman SPC
Monitoring the impacts for oceanic fisheries John Hampton SPC
Today’s programmeDiscussion groups
Information needed at national level Possible key adaptations
Johann Bell, Johanna Johnson, Lindsay Chapman, Tim Pickering
SPC
Today’s programme
Your session!
•Programme includes plenty of time for questions
Climate change scenariosIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 2007
Global
Timeframe 2035 2100
CO2 emissions Low High Low High
IPCC name B1 A2 B1 A2
2 scenarios and 2 timeframes
Climate change scenariosIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 2007
Global
Scenario 2035 B1 2035 A2 2100 B1 2100 A2
CO2 (ppm) ~ 400 ~ 400 ~500 750-800
Global emissions are tracking A2A2 (High)
B1 (Low)
Climate change scenariosIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 2007
Scenario 2035 B1 2035 A2 2100 B1 2100 A2
CO2 (ppm) ~ 400 ~ 400 ~500 750-800
2050 A2
Climate change scenarios
•Projections for surface climate, tropical Pacific Ocean and fish stocks
Scenario 2035 B1 2035 A2 2100 B1 2100 A2
Scenario 2035 B1 2035 A2 2100 B1 2100 A2
2050 A2
•Projected effects on plans for economic development, food security and livelihoods
Vulnerability frameworkFor assessing effects of projected changes on fish stocks
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