iot market & trends - global semiconductor …...architectural view of an iot platform •...

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IOT MARKET & TRENDSRobin Duke-Woolley

CEO, Beecham Research

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WE HAVE OVER 25 YEARS OF ICT ADVISORY EXPERIENCE.

Starting out as telecommunications specialists in 1991, we moved into the

M2M / IoT market in 2001, and have become Internationally recognised as

thought leaders in this space.

WE FOCUS ON IoT MARKET ANALYSIS, RESEARCH & CONSULTING.

Working with both technology providers and technology users (Enterprise

and OEM), and were the first analysts to provide an extensive study on Cloud

based M2M platforms, in 2008.

WITH EXTENSIVE CONTACTS THROUGHOUT THE IoT VALUE CHAIN.

We have strong technical insight, supporting market leading market research

and analysis.

A LITTLE ABOUT US

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IOT WORLD OF CONNECTED SERVICES THE INTERNET OF THINGS

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• The IoT connections market

is growing at a CAGR of

33.7% pa over the next few

years

• Within this:

– traditional cellular

growing at 20.1% pa

– LPWAN at 100% pa

THE IOT MARKET GROWING RAPIDLY

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IOT CONNECTIVITY OPTIONS

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LPWAN: LICENSED OR UNLICENSED?

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IOT BREAKOUT

High

CurrentMarket

Narrowband

Future opportunities• 4G +• Manual install

Traditional Cellular• 1+ billion• Low Value /unit

Low Data Rate• Billions• Very low value /unit

High Data Rate• Millions• High Value /unit

Current Market• 2G/3G to LTE-M• eSIM for some OEMs

Future opportunities• Cellular (NB-IoT) &

non-cellular (LoRa, SigFox, etc.)

• eSIM for mass auto provision

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LICENSED LPWAN DRIVES NEW GROWTHComposite of LPWAN Connectivity

Revenue, %

• NB-IoT connections expected on stream in

2018 but proportion is small.

• Early mover advantage from Sigfox and

LoRa in such applications in smart cities

and smart transportation.

• Contract renewal cycles vulnerable to price

disruption from licensed LPWAN

Composite of LPWAN Connectivity, %

% Sigfox LoRa Licensed *Nwave/Weightless

Other UNB

2015 56.8% 40.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0%

2017 42.5% 45.0% 8.8% 2.6% 1.2%

2020 29.2% 32.5% 37.2% 0.7% 0.4%

* Licensed LPWAN = NB-IoT/Cat-M/EC-GSM-IoT Source: Beecham Research

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NB-IOT WORLD OFIOT APPLICATIONS

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5G IN THE CONTEXT OF IOTMASSIVE MACHINE TYPE COMMUNICATIONS AND ULTRA-RELIABLE & LOW LATENCY COMMUNICATIONS

Source: ITU-R

Massive MTC:To cost <US$5>10 years battery lifeVery low data volumesMassive numbers(40devices/household)Aim: 1m devices/km2

Tactile internet:For safer & more autonomous transportationImproved public safety & security

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TOWARDS CONNECTED PRODUCTSWHY OEMS WANT THEIR PRODUCTS CONNECTED

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IOT MARKET DEVELOPMENTFROM AFTER-MARKET TO OEM-BASED APPLICATIONS

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IOT WORLD OF CONNECTED SERVICES THE INTERNET OF THINGS

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IOT WORLD OF CONNECTED SERVICES M2M: FOCUSING ON SPECIFIC BUSINESS PROCESSES

DATA

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IOT WORLD OF CONNECTED SERVICES IOT: FROM INDIVIDUAL APPLICATIONS TO SPACES

IoT Solutions

INTERACTION

UNDERSTANDING

CONTROL

INSIGHT

DATA DATA

DATAUmbrella concepts

such as smart city,

smart hospitals, smart

factory, smart farming,

smart vehicles

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IOT WORLD OF CONNECTED SERVICES IOT: FROM INDIVIDUAL APPLICATIONS TO SPACES

IoT Platforms

DATA DATA

DATAUmbrella concepts

such as smart city,

smart hospitals, smart

factory, smart farming,

smart vehicles

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ARCHITECTURAL VIEW OF AN IOT PLATFORM

• Different platforms offer different services and forms of specialisation, based on IoT solution needs.

• BRL platform groupings:

• Application Development Centric• Data Analytics Centric• Device Management Centric• Connectivity Management Centric• Consumer IoT Centric• Vertical Centric – Smart City, etc.• Developer Centric

• End-to-end IoT security a central, common requirement

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IOT PLATFORM MARKET EVOLUTION

Number of IoT Platforms

New entrants slowing Acquisitions increasing, but slowly . . .

The platforms market continues to grow, but also becoming more complex and specialised.

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SOME KEY MARKET TRENDS IN IOT1. Huge growth in narrowband connections over next 5 years – enabling new

applications not viable to connect before and extending data sources of others

2. Significant growth of high/medium band as existing applications driven by need

for more, richer data for process opimisation

3. Big volumes require easy provisioning and install – as automated as possible.

Unlicensed easy to install. Licensed requires SIMs, with eSIM/iSIM set to open up

the market opportunity for cellular.

4. Big opportunity for OEMs moving from product to product plus service. Those

that do not will come under threat.

5. Move to IoT from M2M has accentuated need for IoT platforms for solution

development.

6. Growth in number of IoT platforms will continue. Consolidation unlikely to be a

major factor for some time.

7. Instead, more platform specialisation occurring – e.g. “space” oriented such as

cities, home, factory, hospital

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Robin Duke-Woolley

rdukewoolley@beechamresearch.com