irans 20-year perspective document & irans foreign relations conference on irans 20-year...

Iran’s 20-Year Iran’s 20-Year Perspective DocumentPerspective Document &&Iran’s Foreign RelationsIran’s Foreign Relations

Conference on

Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document and Public ParticipationSharif University of Technology

Abbas MalekiMay, 18, 2005

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IRAN hasIRAN has

1% of the world’s population, 7% of the world’s natural reserves

including -10% of the global proven oil reserves -16% of the world’s natural gas

resources. 130 b barrel oil (17 billion tons)

27 trillion cm gaswhich means $3000 billions

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Counties with Oil Reserves > Counties with Oil Reserves > 1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse1 bill. t and Strategic Ellipse

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What would be Iran after 20 What would be Iran after 20 Years?Years?The first country in the region at

economic, scientific and technology levels line of thinking, i.e. the prioritization of

becoming an “economic and technological power” over other policy areas, is very evident in Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document which has produced the first ever official long-term macro strategy of the Islamic Republic.

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Iran and its SubregionsIran and its Subregions

Middle East Persian Gulf South West Asia Central Asia,

Caucasus, and Afghanistan

Caspian Basin

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Desired Iranian SocietyDesired Iranian Society

It describes the “desired Iranian society” for the year 2025 as follows:

Secure, independent and powerfulProgressiveKnowledge-basedEconomic growth based on a large portion

of social capitalGrowth of social capital through educationSociety capable of steady economic

capacity building

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Economic and Technological Economic and Technological PowerPowerThe aim to become an “economic and

technological power” is at the heart of Iran’s new understanding of Iran’s foreign and security relations.

In other words, a consolidation of Iran’s economic significance, especially on a regional and international scale, would improve Iran’s foreign relations and national security standing.

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3 Scenarios for Iran’s Future3 Scenarios for Iran’s Future

Expansionism, Isolationism, Pro Development The 20-Year Perspective calls for Iran to

become an “economic and technological power”, underscores the Islamic Republic’s desire to give economic development priority over other policy areas.

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I. R. Iran’s Goals I. R. Iran’s Goals

While the interrelation between economic power and foreign interaction is disputed by some analysts and intellectuals, there are good reasons to believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran is pursuing an agenda of economic growth and technological advancement in order to achieve one or more of the following goals:

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I. R. Iran’s Goals (2)I. R. Iran’s Goals (2)

Increase the regime’s legitimacy among the Iranian society through improved economic conditions and higher efficiency;

Consolidate Iran’s regional and international position by projecting a greater significance both as an engine of regional economic stability, and also as one of the key suppliers of energy in a tense global energy market;

Secure the international respect that has been missing in Iran’s international relations.

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Five-Year Plans FociFive-Year Plans Foci

While the document outlines the various policies in the fields of culture, socio-political developments, foreign policy, defense, economy and environment, it also determines the foci of the five-year plans that will be drafted in the 20-year period.

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Orientations of the four upcoming Orientations of the four upcoming five-year plansfive-year plans

-Realization of fast-pace and sustainable growth;-Generation of sustainable employment opportunities and reduction of unemployment figures;-Creation of a competitive market environment and facilitation of Iran’s competitiveness on an international scale;-Promotion of efficiency growth, especially the efficiency of Total Factor Production (energy, capital, human

resources, water etc.)-Proactive interaction with the rest of the world in all fields and mutual

interrelationship between the global economy and the Iranian economy;-Promotion of entrepreneurship as well as innovative initiatives and technological and research capacity building;-Provision of food security through self-sufficiency in agricultural production;-Development of a diverse, knowledge-based economy driven by human capital and modern technologies;-Active presence in regional and international markets and participation in the

international division of labor;-Generation of incentives for non-oil exports and promotion of all products that are internationally competitive;-Creation of a market environment that attracts the domestic and international

business community as well as entrepreneurs focusing on security, sustainability and respect for material and intellectual property rights;

-Focus on Iran’s competitive and comparative advantages and the creation of new advantages;-Containment of inflation and promotion of growing purchasing power for the lower and medium income classes;-Promotion of the role of the cooperative sector through facilitation of this sector’s access to market intelligence,

technology and facilitation of greater interaction between various cooperatives;-Promotion of the role of the private and cooperative sectors in all economic activities by limiting the government role

to presence in the key sectors mentioned in Article 44 of the Constitution and by making the regulatory role of the government as efficient as possible.

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Iran’s Foreign policy PreferencesIran’s Foreign policy Preferences

The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes clear Iran’s preferences in foreign policy.

Four groups of countries are ranked in preference:

(1) Iran’s neighbours; (2) Muslim countries; (3) Third World countries; (4) countries that furnish political, economic,

social and/or military needs of Iran.

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Iran’s New FP during Vision Iran’s New FP during Vision Document’s EraDocument’s EraProvincial: Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq,

Bilateral: Japan, Egypt, Brazil

Multilateral: India and Turkmenistan

Regional: GCC, ECO, CASCO,

International: USA, Russia, EU

Relations with International Agencies: UN, IAEA, UNESCO,

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Iran’s Membership in Iran’s Membership in Regional/International Regional/International Organizations Organizations United Nations and its institutionsECO (Economic Cooperation

Organization)OPEC (Organization for Petroleum

Exporting Countries)ICO (Islamic Conference Organization)North-South Corridor D8 (Islamic Developed Countries)Non-Aligned Movement

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Proposed Clubs for IranProposed Clubs for Iran

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council)Arab League

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A Necessary Dialogue?A Necessary Dialogue?

Asian Identity: Russia China India and Iran?

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Energy resource Energy resource peripheryperiphery

Energy demand Energy demand heartlandheartland

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Iran and Initiated Regional Iran and Initiated Regional OrganizationOrganizationPersian States Countries: Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan

Caspian Cooperation Organization: Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan

Shi’a Nations Rim: 1-Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain 2-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon, Afghanistan

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Iran’s Foreign Relations:Iran’s Foreign Relations:ProcessProcessLeaderPresidentHigh National Security CouncilForeign MinistryCabinetParliamentExpediency Council

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Iran’s Foreign Relations:Iran’s Foreign Relations:Conceptual ChallengesConceptual Challenges

Iran-US Relations Iran-EU Relations Oil price Treaty of Friendship between Iran and Iraq (1975) Iran’s share of Hirmand river 3 Iranian Islands in Persian Gulf Regional Crises Caspian legal regime

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Models for-US Iran TiesModels for-US Iran Ties

IsolationEngagement Sticks and CarrotsSticksAttackMono polar Leadership

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US military in US military in AsiaAsia

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Iran and EuropeIran and Europe

Member ship of each central or Eastern Europe countries to EU means a new demand for Energy.

Europe is surrounded by the sea of gas, most important of them: Russia, Iran and Qatar.

In the Cold War era, with political motivation, Europe preferred to follow the Soviet gas pipeline instead of the cheap and costless Iranian gas.

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Iran and Europe (2)Iran and Europe (2)

Now again, because of US extraterritorial rules like ILSA, the oil and gas companies can not invest more than 20 million dollars in Iran's energy industries.

The gas pipeline from Central Asia to Iran then Europe is a key project in trilateral cooperation among three regions. The physibility study of the two routes from Iran to Europe via Turkey and Ukraine had been done.

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Iran and Europe (3)Iran and Europe (3)

-An expanded pipeline consortium with governments participation in the Caspian

-Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran (KTI) is one option (TotalFinaElf Project)

-Azerbaijan, Iran (Tabriz), Turkey (Ceyhan). Dialogue on Human Rights Collective Security in Iran’s Subregions: -Persian Gulf -Caucasus -The Roof of the World

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World Oil ReservesWorld Oil Reserves

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004 © BP

Distribution of proved oil reserves

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World Energy Security (1)World Energy Security (1)

-A perception is World should be concerned about its energy security given recent developments in the Middle East.

-Reality is that despite a war in the Middle East, World has not faced problems with its energy supplies.

-Over these past months, there were never any disruption of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf beyond Iraq and what’s more.

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World Energy Security (2)World Energy Security (2)

Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf OPEC producers significantly increased production to fill the gap.

-Reality is that the market remains well-supplied. -The Persian Gulf continues to be the home of

the most easily exploited and cost-effective petroleum reserves in the world.

Persian Gulf natural resources are undergirding the phenomenal economic rise of India and China.

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Neka-Ray Old and New PipelineNeka-Ray Old and New Pipeline

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Caspian Oil Terminals and NekaCaspian Oil Terminals and Neka

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PIPELINE ROUTES: AN PIPELINE ROUTES: AN IMPRESSIONIMPRESSION

Bottlenecks andPipelines 11 oil pipeline projects/ 6 operational 6 natural gas pipeline projects/2 operational. Of particular notice:

CPC BTC TCP

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Hirmand FlowHirmand Flow

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Iran-Iraq New RelationsIran-Iraq New Relations

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Nagorno Karabkh CrisesNagorno Karabkh Crises

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Confrontation between Iran and Confrontation between Iran and AzerbaijanAzerbaijan

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Conclusions:Conclusions:

Iran’s Foreign policy is facing serious challenges during Iran’s 20-Year Perspective.

Most of challenges are related to Iranian borders with its neighbors.

Energy demand and supply equilibrium has dramatic impacts on Iran.

United States different approaches to Iran will change Iran’s destiny.

Looking to East is one option for Iran