is scotland set to separate? john curtice whatscotlandthinks.org @whatscotsthink

Is Scotland Set to Separate?

John Curticewhatscotlandthinks.org

@whatscotsthink

Turnout Prospects

Feb May Sept Dec Feb0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

73 74 7379 78

65 64 6369 68

54 5752

56 54

Referendum Holyrood Westminster

% c

erta

in to

vot

e

Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls)

A Little Movement in the Polls?

Feb-May July-Sept Oct-Dec Jan-Mar0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

38 39 3942

62 61 6158

YesNo

Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May, 10 polls July-Sept, 8 polls Oct-Dec, and 12 polls in Jan/Feb. Don’t Knows excluded.

The Post Christmas Sequence% Yes Change since Pre-WP

TNS BMRB 41 +5

ICM 46 +6

YouGov 39 +1

Survation 38 -

TNS BMRB 41 +5

Panelbase 43 -2

YouGov 39 +1

Survation 45 -

ICM 43 +3

Panelbase 44 -1

Ipsos MORI 36 +2

YouGov 40 +2

Survation 45 -

The Don’t Knows

TNS Others YouGov - AV ICM - AV0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3530

15

33

27

%

Squeezing the Don’t Knows

Ipsos MORI ICM I ICM 20

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

39

2420

29

2125

YesNo

Possible Changers – Ipsos MORI

Feb. May Sept Dec Feb0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20

26

34

24

31

1821

28

23 23

YesNo

Source: Ipsos MORI

Possible Changers - ICM

Sept Jan Feb0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

29

2321

16

22

17 YesNo

Source: ICM Research

The Cross-Party Transfer

Panelbase Ipsos MORI YouGov Survation0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2

0

45

15

11

15

18

1413

109

11

14

12

10ConLabLDSNP

% s

ayin

g w

ill v

ote

agai

nst p

arty

's

reco

mm

enda

tion

The Gender Gap

ICM Panelbase Ipsos MORI YouGov Survation0

10

20

30

40

50

60

4853

4144

52

3934

31 29

38

MenWomen

Partly a Question of Identity

Sc not Br More Sc Equal More Br Br not Sc0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

77

45

136 3

69

43

10 11 14

68

40

16 14 12

82

56

84 7

80

56

13

4 3

Feb. 13 May Sept Dec Feb

% s

uppo

rt in

depe

nden

ce

Source: Ipsos MORI. Based on all voters except DKs

Scotland’s Future - Economy?

Sept Jan Feb0

10

20

30

40

50

60

3135 35

6 7 7

48

4246

Better No Difference Worse

Source: ICM Research

Scotland Future’s - Equality

Sept Jan Feb0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

27

313334

31 32

20 2119

Less No Difference More

Source: ICM Research

Economy Matters (Much) More

Better No Difference Worse0

20

40

60

80

100

120

97

45

4

63

3627

% Yes

EconomyEquality

Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows excluded

The Gender Gap on the Economy

Sept Jan Feb

-20

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

-14

-5-4

-19

-10

-17

MenWomen

% g

ood

- % b

ad

Source: ICM Research

Conclusion

• Be ready for a high turnout!• The referendum race has narrowed a bit• But Yes side still face a substantial challenge

– Although seemingly relatively more inclined to the Yes side, not that many Don’t Knows to be won over

– Existing Yes vote is seemingly softer – has to avoid ‘losing’ SNP supporters as well as win over Labour ones

– Those with much sense of British identity seem reluctant to leave the Union

– Have to win the economic argument – including not least amongst women