isecon 2003 – san diego dr. ronald j. kizior loyola university chicago november 7, 2003...

ISECON 2003 – SAN DIEGO

Dr. Ronald J. KiziorLoyola University Chicago

November 7, 2003

“Continued Relevance of COBOL in Business

and Academia”

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Researchers

• Don CarrEastern Kentucky University

• Ron Kizior Loyola University Chicago

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Comparison Study

• Previous Study done in 1999• Current Study done End of 2002• Comparison is made between the

two

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Goal of Research

Try to determine to what extent will the COBOL language continue as a major programming language

for development of business applications over the next 10 5

years.

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Research Methodology

• Two groups of respondents • Business professionals and

Academics• Either group may/may not be using

COBOL applications or may/may not be offering COBOL courses.

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Solicitation Size

• 4700 Business• 2000 Academics

RESPONSE• 208 Business…4.2%• 68 Education…3.8%

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Research Methodology

Business Academics

Use COBOL 2200 1000

Do Not use COBOL

2500 1000

4700 2000

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Business DemographicsFigure 1a

Primary Business Activity

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

Other

Government (Federal, State,Local)

Computer Software,Programming Services

Computer Integrator, VAR,Retailer

Computer HardwareManufacturing

Education, Research,Consulting

Distribution, Retail, Wholesale

Communication,Transportation,and Utilities

Medical, Health

Insurance, Real Estate, andLegal

Banking, Finance, andAccounting

Aerospace, Defense, andManufacturing (non-computer)

2003 1999

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Business DemographicsFigure 1b

Size of OrganizationBy Dollar Volume

1999 and 2003

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Over $1Billion $500 Millionto $1 Billion

$100 Millionto $499Million

$10 Million to$99 Million

Under $10Million

Not Reported

Annual Gross Budget/Revenue/Sales (Dollars)

Pe

rce

nt

1999

2003

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Business Demographics

Figure 1cSize of Business

By Number of Employess1999 and 2003

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Number of Employees

Percent

1999

2003

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Figure 2Size of Firm/Organization

By Number of IS Professional Employees

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Morethan

1,000

200 to999

100 to199

50 to 99 20 to 49 10 to 19 1 to 9

Number of IS Professional Emplyees

Percent

1999

2003

Business Demographics

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Academic Demographics

Figure 3aAcademic Institutions

By Educational Focus or Mission1999 and 2003

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

BusinessTechnical School

Junior College Liberal Arts orScience College

University

Educational Focus or Mission

Percent

1999

2033

Figure 3bAcademic Institutions

Size by Number of Students1999 and 2003

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

More than13,000

10,000 to12,999

7,000 to9,999

4,000 to6,999

1,000 to3,999

Less than1,000

Number of Full-time Undergraduate Students

Percent

1999

2003

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Relevance of COBOL

• 56% of IS Mgrs currently maintaining or developing COBOL code. ( 87% in 1999).

• 60% over 5M lines of code• 30% over 20M + lines of code• No significant change from 1999

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Relevance of COBOL

• 30% of programming effort for maintaining “legacy” COBOL code. 50% back in 1999.

• Only 10% used for new applications. 20% in 1999.

• 10% spent on mixture of new application & maintenance.

30% response back in 1999.

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Application Development

•Languages used:•C++•Java•Visual Basic

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IT Staffs

% of Org.

# COBOL Programmers

50% 25+25% 100+

10% Hire 500+

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Percent Requirements>50% 2 Semesters22% 1 Semester15% 3 Semesters10% COBOL not a requirement

Entry Level Hiring

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IS Mgrs Future View

Methodology/Technology YES NO

Opinion

not stated

OO-Cobol 58.2 27.4 14.4

Integration of Cobol w/ Microsoft platform,

languages and applications 61.1 25.0 13.9

Integration of Cobol w/ Java platform,

languages and applications 55.8 30.8 13.4

Use of Cobol in distributed OLTP applications 44.2 39.9 15.9

Integration of CICS and IMS Cobol applications

into Java and Microsoft platforms 45.7 39.4 14.9

Re-engineering COBOL applications for service-based

or component-based architectures 56.7 28.4 14.9

Re-hosting Cobol applications to new

hardware and software platforms 55.8 29.8 14.4

data in percent

The technical skill is beneficial

Table 1.

IS/IT Managers' View of Beneficial Skills for Entry-level Programmers

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IS Mgrs Future View

Methodology/Technology YES NO Opinion

not stated

OO-Cobol 18.3 68.7 13.0Integration of Cobol w / Microsoft platform, languages and applications 30.8 56.2 13.0Integration of Cobol w / Java platform, languages and applications 20.2 67.3 12.5

Use of Cobol in distributed OLTP applications 16.3 69.8 13.9Integration of CICS and IMS Cobol applications into Java and Microsoft platforms 19.2 65.3 15.5Re-engineering Ccbol applications for service-based or component-based architectures 31.7 55.3 13.0Re-hosting Cobol applications to new hardware and software platforms 31.7 55.3 13.0

data in percent

Table 2.IS/IT Managers' Response to Company/Organization Decision …

To adopt or utilize listedMethodology/Technology

Methodology/Technology YES NO Opinion

not stated

OO-Cobol 18.3 68.7 13.0Integration of Cobol w / Microsoft platform, languages and applications 30.8 56.2 13.0Integration of Cobol w / Java platform, languages and applications 20.2 67.3 12.5

Use of Cobol in distributed OLTP applications 16.3 69.8 13.9Integration of CICS and IMS Cobol applications into Java and Microsoft platforms 19.2 65.3 15.5Re-engineering Ccbol applications for service-based or component-based architectures 31.7 55.3 13.0Re-hosting Cobol applications to new hardware and software platforms 31.7 55.3 13.0

data in percent

Table 2.IS/IT Managers' Response to Company/Organization Decision …

To adopt or utilize listedMethodology/Technology

Methodology/Technology YES NO

Opinion

not stated

OO-Cobol 18.3 68.7 13.0

Integration of Cobol w/ Microsoft platform,

languages and applications 30.8 56.2 13.0

Integration of Cobol w/ Java platform,

languages and applications 20.2 67.3 12.5

Use of Cobol in distributed OLTP applications 16.3 69.8 13.9

Integration of CICS and IMS Cobol applications

into Java and Microsoft platforms 19.2 65.3 15.5

Re-engineering Cobol applications for service-based

or component-based architectures 31.7 55.3 13.0

Re-hosting Cobol applications to new

hardware and software platforms 31.7 55.3 13.0

data in percent

Table 2.

IS/IT Managers' Response to Company/Organization Decision …

To adopt or utilize listed

Methodology/Technology

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IS Mgrs Future View

Response choice 1999 2003

O-O will become the standard for future programing development 25.7 33.9

O-O is a fad and will not be seriously implemented 2.1 5.6

O-O will be popular as a structured form but will not replace structred methodology 62.9 52.2

O-O development is too risky to implement at present 2.9 3.3

Other 6.4 5.0_____ _____

Totals 100.0 100.0

IS Mangers' Perceptionabout Use of Object-Oriented Methodologies

data in percent

Table 3.

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IS Mgrs Future View

Methodology/Technology YES NO Opinion

not stated

OO-Cobol 66.3 21.2 12.5Integration of Cobol w/ Microsoft platform, languages and applications 62.5 24.5 13.0Integration of Cobol w/ Java platform, languages and applications 62.0 25.0 13.0

Use of Cobol in distributed OLTP applications 54.8 31.7 13.5Integration of CICS and IMS Cobol applications into Java and Microsoft platforms 50.0 35.6 14.4Re-engineering Ccbol applications for service-based or component-based architectures 59.1 26.9 14.0Re-hosting Cobol applications to new hardware and software platforms 59.6 26.4 14.0

data in percent

Table 4.IS/IT Managers' Perception

Concerning Academic Cobol Instruction Content

To include the listedMethodology/Technology

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Academic Side

• Median Annual Enrollment – In COBOL Courses 1999 - 40 Students

2002 - 30 Students

• 25% of the schools enroll 80+ 10% enroll over 150 students per

year

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Academic Side

• 85% Respondents reported a desire that COBOL instruction continue to be offered as compared to 90% in 1999.

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Academic Side

1999 2003

1. ASP.Net nr 7.9

2. Basic 53.6 34.9

3. Visual Basic.Net nr 69.8

3. C 38.2 31.7

5. C++ 71.8 84.1

6. C# nr 11.1

7. Visual C/C++ 49.1 42.9

8. COBOL 90.7 83.3

9. Java/HTM L 70.9 82.5

10. Pascal 19.1 4.8

nr = not reported in 1999

data in percent

Table 5.

Academic Respondents Teachingthe Specified Programming Language

Language Description

1999 2003

1. ASP.Net nr 7.9

2. Basic 53.6 34.9

3. Visual Basic.Net nr 69.8

3. C 38.2 31.7

5. C++ 71.8 84.1

6. C# nr 11.1

7. Visual C/C++ 49.1 42.9

8. COBOL 90.7 83.3

9. Java/HTM L 70.9 82.5

10. Pascal 19.1 4.8

nr = not reported in 1999

data in percent

Table 5.

Academic Respondents Teachingthe Specified Programming Language

Language Description

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Academic Side

1999 2003

Same length 30% 11%

Less than current length 28% 47%

Deleted from curriculum 17% 17%

What would the Instructional requirementfor Cobol be 5 years from now:

Table 6.

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Academic Side – Table 7

The likelihood within the next 5 years of changing COBOL instruction

Scenario Not Likely

1999 2003Substantial shorter course 71.6 52.9Offered at a higher level 77.0 72.0Made an elective 33.7 38.0Eliminated from curriculum 61.1 49.0Replaced with another Lang 43.6 40.0

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Academic Side – Table 7

The likelihood within the next 5 years of changing COBOL instruction

Scenario Poss ible

1999 2003Substantial shorter course 22.1 33.3Offered at a higher level 16.7 16.0Made an elective 43.5 30.0Eliminated from curriculum 24.4 39.2Replaced with another Lang 40.0 34.6

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Academic Side – Table 7

The likelihood within the next 5 years of changing COBOL instruction

Scenario Very Likely

1999 2003Substantial shorter course 5.3 6.3Offered at a higher level 4.4 8.0Made an elective 9.8 12.0Eliminated from curriculum 11.1 9.8Replaced with another Lang 13.3 15.4

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Academic Side – Table 7

The likelihood within the next 5 years of changing COBOL instruction

Scenario Under way

1999 2003Substantial shorter course .9 5.9Offered at a higher level 1.1 4.0Made an elective 13. 20.0Eliminated from curriculum 3.3 2.0Replaced with another Lang 3.3 9.6

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Academic SideTable 7 - Review

• More than 60 % of academics perceive a shift to make COBOL an elective.

• More than 50% believe that it will be eliminated from curriculum as compared to 40% in 1999.

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Academic SideTable 5 - Review

• Will another lang replace COBOL?• Large increase in JAVA, VB.net, C++

with a slight decrease in COBOL.• Still might suggests that CIS/IS

curriculums require two languages.

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Overall Conclusions

• Downward trend in development of traditional COBOL business applications.

• “Masked” by current impact of integrated, multi-language, development environments have on re-engineering and re-hosting of legacy applications

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Overall Conclusions

• Over-riding theme of IS managers is to seek to employ programming technologies that integrate legacy applications with new technologies without the need for major rewriting of current applications.

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Overall ConclusionsGIVEN:

• Billions of legacy COBOL lines of codes still in existence, used and maintained,

• Large investment that occurred with Y2K,

• This provides a good outlook for IS graduates who know COBOL as well as OTHER skill sets in order to integrate COBOL applications with “best practices” of other programming technologies.

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Overall Conclusions

• OO methodology will be increasingly important in future application development.

• Our results indicate that OO will continue to compliment but not replace structured methodology in future business applications.

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Overall Conclusions

• Respondent support integration of OO features of COBOL in the modification and maintenance of existing COBOL applications.

• Future application development with by driven by integration and interoperability requirements

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Overall Conclusions

• COBOL applications integration along with JAVA platform or .NET platform technologies is a major methodological issue confronting IS managers.

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Overall Conclusions

• The utilization of mixed-language, interoperable, integrated COBOL development environments ( IDEs) are now focused on IS efficiency through application integration rather than rewriting.

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Overall Conclusions

• Gone are the days of ‘just’ COBOL programmer. Managers’ needs today are programmers with a range of programming skill sets that will enable them to integrate legacy applications and extend them to modern business applications through IDEs.

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IS Managers now need to:

• Encourage experienced COBOL programmers to obtain appropriate IDE skill sets through human reinvestment

• Influence local colleges to ensure graduates have initial IDE knowledge and skills for an entry level requirements.

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You are all invited

• 7th Annual Ethics & Technology Conference on June 25-26, 2004 at Loyola University Chicago.

• Call for Papers information can be found at : www.ethicstechconfrence.org

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Thank You for your attention.

Questions?