#isss2015 berlin - skytt et al - interdisciplinary cooperation and ssytems modelling as a means to...

Interdisciplinary cooperation and systems modelling as means to

govern the anthropocene

Torbjörn Skytt, Søren Nors Nielsen, Erik Grönlund, Fredrik Ståhl, Anders Jonsson, Inga Carlman, Morgan Fröling

Ecotechnology and sustainable building, Mid-Sweden UniversityNielsen: Section for Sustainable Transitions, Department of Planning, Aalborg University, Denmark

Solving large scale problems

• Problem formulation

• Importance to find a solution

• The way to carry through the solution

• CFC exchange to reduce ozone depletion

• Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (1979) (Acidification of low buffer soils and lakes in mainly Scandinavia)

• IPCC climate models convincing (most) people

To be remembered

• Most environmental degrading is legal

• Sciences get more and more fragmented (post-normal science; Ravetz) (post-modernity; Beck)

• Dualism between human and nature (Carolyn Merchant and others)

Integrated Assessment

Complex problem Analysis

Systems understanding

IntegratedAssessment

Communication/Interdisciplinarity Knowledge

Assumptions/Approximations

Control of societalsystem

Sustainability

Modelling Life CycleAssessment

EnvironmentalImpact Assessment

Example: Supporting the governing ofregional development towards

sustainability

The county of Jämtland (Sweden) to be modelled concerning flows of material (carbon) and energy (exergy) thus finding the answer to the question: Is it possible to reach sustainability?

COUNTY OF JÄMTLAND(8 municipalities)

Source: www.ne.se

ENERGY SECTOR

AGRICULTURE FORESTRYREINDEER HERDING

NATURE

WASTE

INDUSTRY/TRADE PUBLIC TOURISMPRIVATE

Sectorial division of regional activities

AGRICULTURE

FORESTRY

Photo: Tor Lundberg Tuorda. Source: http://www.samer.se/1220

REINDEER HERDING

NATURE

INDUSTRY/TRADE

PUBLIC

PRIVATE

Source: www.are.se

TOURISM

WASTE

ENERGY

HYDRO34,1 PJ

WIND2,1 PJ

BIOFUEL3,5 PJ

SOLAR<0,01 PJ

LIQUIDS5,8 PJ

ELECTRICITY36,9 PJ

HEAT3,1 PJ

TRANSPORT5,6 PJ

PUBLIC PRIVATE INDUST SERVICES TOURISM AGRICULT

925 TJ 1819 TJ 984 TJ 1417 TJ 632 TJ 306 TJ

271 TJ 1598 TJ 102 TJ 529 TJ 0 0

CAR TRUCK TRACTOR BUS SNOW MOBILE

OTHER

2160 TJ 2110 TJ 620 TJ 350 TJ 270 TJ 100 TJ

NETEXPORT30,8 PJ

INFRASTRUCTURE: 140 PJ(3 PJ/Y to be invested)

TOTAL ENERGY: 45,5 PJ

Example: Regional Energy sector

SCENARIO A:INCR RENEWABLES

Sectorial effects

Export limit el.

Yes

No

Prices drop

Export more electricity to replace NR sources

Potential

Yes

No

Increase regional use of electricity

Increased transmission capacity needed

Ref to next slide

TRANSPORT5,6 PJ

CAR TRUCK TRACTOR BUS SNOW MOBILE

OTHER

2160 TJ 2110 TJ 620 TJ 350 TJ 270 TJ 100 TJ

Potential

Yes

No Increased transmission capacity needed

150 TJ 30 TJ

Private: M€ 150 Govern.: M€ 20

Are there alternatives to such investments that give higher environmental long-term yield?

Prof. Morgan Fröling in front of the MiUnphotovoltaic installation (ca 30 kWp)

Investment in photovoltaics ?

Simulations: http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/apps4/pvest.php

MiUn installation 24 MWh/Y

430 TJ

Private: M€ 150 Govern.: M€ 20

Östersund 24 MWh/Y

Casablanca 50 MWh/Y

Simulations: http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/apps4/pvest.php

Governing the Anthropocenemeans governing complexity…

• Clarify the problem as a model

• Clarify the decision tree, showing the parameters of the decision process

• Environmental laws, recommendations and subsidies have to be used to push long-term sustainability decisions Lunch

Veg. Meat Other