iwrm as a tool for adaptation to climate change dealing with uncertainties
Post on 02-Jan-2016
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Goal and objectives of the session
At the end of this session, participants will be familiar with the uncertainties involved in:• Predicting impacts of climate change• Adapting to the predicted impacts of
climate change.
Uncertainties
One thing is certain:Nothing is certain
In this session: Uncertainty and climate change How to deal with uncertainties Types of uncertainties Adaptation to climate change under
uncertainty:• Prediction-oriented approaches• Resilience-oriented approaches.
Climate change
Changes in temperature and precipitation characterised by uncertainties regarding:
•magnitude
•timing
•spatial distribution
As well as uncertainties with respect to vulnerabilities.
Feedbacks increasing uncertainties
Melting of ice/snow > reduced reflection sun’s radiation > increased heating
Thawing permafrost > release CO2 and CH4 > accelerating global warming
Higher land and ocean temperatures: reduced uptake of atmospheric CO2.
Uncertainties in environmental management (Ravetz, 2005)
Increasingly dealing with situations where facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent
Weighing risks is a political task.
Uncertainties in water management
Uncertainty, variability and risk most important consequences of climate change
Climate change projections inconsistent and/or inaccurate at regional/local scales
Stationarity in weather and water systems not longer reliable basis for planning.
Experience from the past is no longer a reliable guide for the future.
Challenges in water management
Improve predictions (temporal/spatial scales required by water managers)
Collaboration/communication between climate and water resources management community
Adaptive management: adaptive and flexible approaches to improve coping with uncertain developments vs finding optimum solutions
> Institutional flexibility and a central role for stakeholders.
Typology of uncertainties: From ‘knowing for certain’ to ‘unknown’
Statistical:• Range with probability, chances, probabilities• Assuming underlying models are adequate, data
representative
Scenario:• Ranges of possible outcomes: ‘What if?’
Recognized:• Present, but can not be estimated (chaos, unknown processes)• No scientific consensus, e.g. accelerated sea level rise, shut-
down thermohaline ocean circulation.
Adaptation to CC under uncertainty
Prediction-oriented: Characterising, reducing, managing and
communicating uncertainty Increasing sophistication of modelling tools
and techniques.
Resilience-oriented: Uncertainties can not be reduced Learning from the past.
Prediction-oriented approaches
IPCC approach: Uncertain information by using CC scenarios
as drivers for impacts from which adaptation strategies are developed.
Risk approaches: Identify, evaluate, select and implement
actions to reduce risks (probability x consequences).
Frameworks for risk approaches (Dessai and van der Sluijs, 2007)
1. Identify key climatic variables2. Create scenarios/ranges for these variables3. Sensitivity analysis between CC and
impacts4. Identify impact thresholds5. Carry out risk analysis6. Evaluate risk and identify feedbacks7. Consult stakeholders, analyse proposed
adaptations, recommend planned adaptation options
Frameworks for risk approaches -2- (ten Brinke et al., 2008)
Risk management cycle/safety chain
Risk management
Pro-action
Eliminating structural causes of accidents and disasters to prevent them from happening in the first place (e.g. building restrictions in flood-prone areas)
Prevention
Taking measures beforehand that aim to prevent accidents and disasters, and limit the consequence in case such events do occur (e.g. building dykes)
Crisis management
Preparation
Taking measures to ensure sufficient preparation to deal with accidents and disasters in case they happen (e.g. contingency planning)
ResponseActually dealing with accidents and disasters (e.g. response teams)
Recovery
All activities that lead to rapid recovery from the consequences of accidents and disasters, and ensuring that all those affected can return to the ‘normal’ situation and recover their equilibrium.
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