jan denys - change in the labor market, myth vs reality

1

Change on the labour market. The

difference between myth and

reality.

Jan Denys

Sanoma

Brussels, May 22th 2014

2

No change

• The meaning of work

• Flexibility

• Careers

• New generations

• Intermediaries on the labour market

• Employment rate

• Mobility on the labour market

• The weak points of the Belgian labour market

• Coffee at work

3 3

4

Why do we work?

• Money

• Structures time

• Social contacts

• Connects individual and social goals

• Status and identity

• Skills

• Fun

5

Why do we work?

6

7

7

The figures

Source: Randstad/SEO, flexibility@work2013

Belgium

8,8% Belgium

8,1%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Share

in %

of to

tal

em

plo

ym

ent

Year

United States

Canada

Japan

EU-Anglosaxon

EU-Rhineland

Scandinavia

EU-Francophone

EU-Mediterranean

Eastern Europe

fixed-term contracts

8

8

share flexible labor relations in total employment

Source: Randstad/SEO, flexibility@work2013

Belgium

21,7%Belgium

21,5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Share

in %

of to

tal

em

plo

ym

ent

Year

United States

Canada

Japan

EU-Anglosaxon

EU-Rhineland

Scandinavia

EU-Francophone

EU-Mediterranean

Eastern Europe

flexible labor relations

9

Establishment

20 25 35 45 55 65

Effort

s

High

Explore

Low

Traditional career model (Baird & Kram)

9

10

0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

T Ex

Es

M Ex

Ex T

Es

M Ex

Ex T

Es

M Ex

Ex Exploration T Trial Es Establishment M Mastery

Psy

cholo

gic

al su

cces

New career model - Protean career (Hall)

10

11

Do careers change?

–

Flanders EU27

Yearly jobmobility 6,3% 8,4%

Average job tenure 11,3 year 9,7 years

Participation in training 7,4% 9,3%

12

Do careers really change?

• 70%

• 56%

• 59%

13

Stereotyping the young generation

• ‘Our youth now love luxury. They have bad manners,

contempt for authority; they show disrespect for their

elders and love chatter in place of exercise; they no

longer rise when elders enter the room; they contradict

their parents, chatter before company; gobble up their

food and tyrannize their teachers.’

14

15

‘Nowhere in history have we seen 4

generations in today’s workplace’

16

Wrong assumptions of generation thinking

Differences between ages do not mean necessarily

differences between generations

Youngsters are (and were) different than other age

groups

People change during their lives

To find differences between generations you need to

compare youngsters of today with youngsters in the past

17

Employment rates 2000-2012

18

1

8

2

19 19

Exit unemployment

Landen Werkend

Oostenrijk 40,5%

België 21,1%

Duitsland 28,2%

Denemarken 43,9%

Spanje 26,1%

Finland 32,6%

Frankrijk 34,1%

Griekenland 18,0%

Italië 24,6%

Luxemburg 44,1%

Nederland 53,6%

Portugal 33,1%

Zweden 43,2%

Verenigd Koninkrijk 41,0%

20 20

Exit inactivity

Landen Werkend

Oostenrijk 23,4%

België 7,0%

Duitsland 15,5%

Denemarken 24,1%

Spanje 5,9%

Finland 24,7%

Frankrijk 9,7%

Griekenland 2,7%

Italië 4,5%

Luxemburg 11,8%

Nederland 53,2%

Portugal 5,1%

Zweden 25,9%

Verenigd Koninkrijk 15,5%

21

Disruptive in 2000

22

Stock Price of Monster since 2005

23

Disruptive in 2014

24

Growing impact on labour market Belgium 1983-2011

Bron: RSZ, Federgon (Bewerking Steunpunt WSE)

25

Penetration rates EU-Japan-USA

26

Weak points Belgian labour market

• Low employment rate

• Low activity rate

• Belgium makes little progress

• Weak mobility between unemployment/inactivity and

work

• Growing mismatch

• Big differences between regions

• Brussels : the problem

• Massive black labour market

• Limited contractual flexibility

• Public sector blocks labour market

27

28

29

Impact of technology

30

Impact of technology

31

Impact of technology

32

Disruptive models

33

Change

• Sectors

• Jobs

• Skills

• Education

• Full time, Part time

• Where do we work?

• Speed

34

Bron: 1846-1947: Bairoch, 1967; Lefevre, 1976-1977.; 1950-1965: Planbureau, Dossier statistique de population

active, d‘ emploi et de chômage, 1950-1987; 1970-1990: Ministerie van Tewerkstelling en Arbeid, De

beroepsbevolking in België; 1995-2011: OECD, Structural Analysis Database (STAN).

).

35

Development sectoral employment in Flanders 1995-2018 35

36

Change in skills

37

Change in skills (2)

38

Polarisation

39

40

41

42 42 Bron: online.wsj.com

43

44

Traditional Modern

Vision on labour market

Closed Open

World perspective Company Labour market

Power play Uneven: in the advantage of the employer

More equal and also changing

Responsibility Employer Shared responsibility worker/employer

Emotion Negative, threat Positive, opportunities

Social protection Permanent contract, notice periods, closing fee

Mobility, employability

2 jobs

Security Jobsecurity

Work security

Basic characteristics Homogeneous Diversity

45

Thanks for your attention!

Jan.denys@randstad.be

https://twitter.com/#DenysJan