january fy2021 economic outlook & revenue assessment ......receipts since 2009 12 dec-2008...

tax.idaho.gov1

January FY2021 Economic Outlook & Revenue

Assessment Committee Presentation

Jeff McCray, CommissionerIdaho State Tax Commission

tax.idaho.gov

What you’ll see here…

• Historical IIT, BIT, Sales and Total ISTC collected tax revenues from FY2009 to present.

• Idaho population by age categories.• Factors impacting the economy and tax

revenues.• Tax Commission’s FY2021 & 2022 Green Sheet

projections. • Questions.

2

tax.idaho.gov

Facts and Other Constructs

• IIT Tax Year 2020 Individual & Business Income Tax return filings.

• Short AND Long-term effects of two stimulus funding rounds on economic recovery. Artificial? Sustainable?

• Unemployment settling and resetting.• Continued global & political uncertainty.• Business inventories are down in some sectors due to

increased sales AND reduced manufacturing workforce due to furloughs, layoffs, reduction in raw materials, and COVID infections.

• Vaccine rollout and effects.

3

tax.idaho.gov

Fiscal Year-to-Date Individual Income Tax Revenue Distributed to General Fund, July ’08 - Nov ’20

4

Jan-

2009

Jul-2

009

Jan-

2010

Jul-2

010

Jan-

2011

Jul-2

011

Jan-

2012

Jul-2

012

Jan-

2013

Jul-2

013

Jan-

2014

Jul-2

014

Jan-

2015

Jul-2

015

Jan-

2016

Jul-2

016

Jan-

2017

Jul-2

017

Jan-

2018

Jul-2

018

Jan-

2019

Jul-2

019

Jan-

2020

Jul-2

020

Jan-

2021

Jul-2

021

Month/Year

$0.0

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

$1,800.0

$2,000.0

$2,200.0S

FY C

umul

ativ

e IIT

Tot

al (i

n M

illio

ns)

ISTCProj.

Nov. data

tax.idaho.gov

Fiscal Year-to-Date Sales Tax Revenue Distributed to General Fund, July ’08 – Nov ‘20

(Does Not Include Sales Tax Credited to the Tax Relief Fund)

5

Jan-

2008

Jul-2

008

Jan-

2009

Jul-2

009

Jan-

2010

Jul-2

010

Jan-

2011

Jul-2

011

Jan-

2012

Jul-2

012

Jan-

2013

Jul-2

013

Jan-

2014

Jul-2

014

Jan-

2015

Jul-2

015

Jan-

2016

Jul-2

016

Jan-

2017

Jul-2

017

Jan-

2018

Jul-2

018

Jan-

2019

Jul-2

019

Jan-

2020

Jul-2

020

Jan-

2021

Jul-2

021

Month/Year

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000S

FY C

umul

ativ

e S

ales

Tax

Tot

al (i

n M

illio

ns)

ISTCProj.

Nov . data

tax.idaho.gov

Fiscal Year-to-Date Business Income Tax Revenue Distributed to General Fund, July ’08 – Nov ‘20

6

Jan-

2009

Jul-2

009

Jan-

2010

Jul-2

010

Jan-

2011

Jul-2

011

Jan-

2012

Jul-2

012

Jan-

2013

Jul-2

013

Jan-

2014

Jul-2

014

Jan-

2015

Jul-2

015

Jan-

2016

Jul-2

016

Jan-

2017

Jul-2

017

Jan-

2018

Jul-2

018

Jan-

2019

Jul-2

019

Jan-

2020

Jul-2

020

Jan-

2021

Jul-2

021

Month/Year

$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

$300.0

$350.0S

FY C

um M

onth

ly B

IT T

otal

(in

Mill

ions

)

ISTCProj.

Nov . data

tax.idaho.gov

Fiscal Year-to-Date ISTC Total Revenue Distributed to General Fund, July ’08 – Nov ‘20

7

Jan-

2009

Jul-2

009

Jan-

2010

Jul-2

010

Jan-

2011

Jul-2

011

Jan-

2012

Jul-2

012

Jan-

2013

Jul-2

013

Jan-

2014

Jul-2

014

Jan-

2015

Jul-2

015

Jan-

2016

Jul-2

016

Jan-

2017

Jul-2

017

Jan-

2018

Jul-2

018

Jan-

2019

Jul-2

019

Jan-

2020

Jul-2

020

Jan-

2021

Jul-2

021

Month/Year

$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

$4,000.0

$4,500.0S

FY C

umul

ativ

e To

tal (

in M

illio

ns)

ISTCProj.

Nov. data

tax.idaho.gov

Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimates for FY2021 (in Millions)

8

Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimate for Fiscal 2021 (M)

Tax TypeFY2020 Actuals

FY2021 Estimate Difference

Percent Change*

Individual Income Tax $1,905.2 $2,100.0 $194.8 10.2%Corporate Income Tax $243.3 $250.0 $6.7 2.7%Sales Tax ** $1,689.4 $1,800.0 $110.6 6.5%

Product TaxesCigarette $7.9 $8.7 $0.8 9.6%Tobacco Products $13.0 $13.2 $0.2 1.3%Beer $2.1 $2.2 $0.1 5.8%Wine $5.1 $5.4 $0.3 6.8%Product Tax Total * $28.1 $29.5 $1.4 5.0%

Other TaxesKWH $2.1 $2.6 $0.5 25.0%Mine License $0.1 $0.0 -$0.1 -67.6%Total * $2.1 $2.6 $0.5 21.7%ISTC Total * $3,868.2 $4,182.2 $313.9 8.1%

General Funds Not Collected by the ISTC $163.7 $163.7 $0.0 0.0%Grand Total * $4,031.9 $4,345.9 $313.9 7.8%* Some totals and "Percent Changes" will not appear accurate due to rounding to the nearest $100,000. ** Sales Tax does not include revenues credited to the tax relief fund.

tax.idaho.gov

Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimates for FY2022 (in Millions)

9

Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimate for Fiscal 2022 (M)

Tax TypeFY2021

EstimateFY2022

Estimate DifferencePercent

Change*Individual Income Tax $2,100.0 $2,200.0 $100.0 4.8%Corporate Income Tax $250.0 $260.0 $10.0 4.0%Sales Tax ** $1,800.0 $1,900.0 $100.0 5.6%

Product TaxesCigarette $8.7 $9.1 $0.4 5.0%Tobacco Products $13.2 $13.3 $0.1 0.6%Beer $2.2 $2.3 $0.1 5.0%Wine $5.4 $5.7 $0.3 5.0%Product Tax Total $29.5 $30.4 $0.9 3.1%

Other TaxesKWH $2.6 $2.7 $0.1 5.0%Mine License $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 5.0%Total * $2.6 $2.7 $0.1 5.0%ISTC Total * $4,182.2 $4,393.2 $211.0 5.0%

General Funds Not Collected by the ISTC $163.7 $171.9 $8.2 5.0%Grand Total * $4,345.9 $4,565.1 $219.2 5.0%* Some totals and "Percent Changes" will not appear accurate due to rounding to the nearest $100,000. ** Sales Tax does not include revenues credited to the tax relief fund.

tax.idaho.gov

Questions?

10

tax.idaho.gov

U.S. Census Bureau’s Idaho Population Estimates by Age for 2005 and 2019

11

tax.idaho.gov

Idaho Dept. of Labor Quarterly Wages & Idaho State Tax Commission Monthly Withholding

Receipts since 2009

12

Dec

-200

8Ju

n-20

09D

ec-2

009

Jun-

2010

Dec

-201

0Ju

n-20

11D

ec-2

011

Jun-

2012

Dec

-201

2Ju

n-20

13D

ec-2

013

Jun-

2014

Dec

-201

4Ju

n-20

15D

ec-2

015

Jun-

2016

Dec

-201

6Ju

n-20

17D

ec-2

017

Jun-

2018

Dec

-201

8Ju

n-20

19D

ec-2

019

Jun-

2020

Dec

-202

0Ju

n-20

21

Month/Year

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

$150

$160W

ithho

ldin

g (M

) (pa

yrol

l, m

onth

ly, c

ompa

rativ

e)

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

$6,000

$6,500

$7,000

$7,500

$8,000

$8,500

$9,000

$9,500

IDoL

Qua

rterly

Cov

ered

Wag

es (M

)

Monthly Payroll Withholding Quarterly IDoL Covered Wages

LatestTrends

tax.idaho.gov

Idaho Dept. of Labor Wage Data & Idaho State Tax Commission Withholding Receipts since 2009

13

Dec

-200

8Ju

n-20

09D

ec-2

009

Jun-

2010

Dec

-201

0Ju

n-20

11D

ec-2

011

Jun-

2012

Dec

-201

2Ju

n-20

13D

ec-2

013

Jun-

2014

Dec

-201

4Ju

n-20

15D

ec-2

015

Jun-

2016

Dec

-201

6Ju

n-20

17D

ec-2

017

Jun-

2018

Dec

-201

8Ju

n-20

19D

ec-2

019

Jun-

2020

Dec

-202

0Ju

n-20

21

Month/Year

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140

$150

$160W

ithho

ldin

g (M

) (pa

yrol

l, m

onth

ly, c

ompa

rativ

e)

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

$6,000

$6,500

$7,000

$7,500

$8,000

$8,500

$9,000

$9,500

IDoL

Qua

rterly

Cov

ered

Wag

es (M

)

Monthly Payroll Withholding Quarterly IDoL Covered Wages

LatestTrends

tax.idaho.gov

U.S. Dept. of Labor Weekly Initial AND Continued Idaho Unemployment Claims

14