japanese energy crisis

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Japan’s Energy Crisis

Is a Green Future Possible?

Presentation by Guy Dauncey, Vancouver island University, August 2013

What is ourREALITY?

実在

We’ve come a long way from this….

To this …

but…

Everyone wants to go shopping…

Smithore Dreamstime.com

We’ve also come to this…

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

?……

If everyone lived like Canadians or Japanese,

we'd need two more Earths

to provide the resources.

Live Rainforest

Dead Rainforest

What went wrong?

How did this…

Domestic

Product

国内総生産

turn into this? …

Depletionof the

Planet

惑星のグロス枯渇

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

地球規模の気候変動

Almost all our energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Almost all energy is Solar Energy

The Sun sends us solar energy

The trees capture the energy through photosynthesis

and convert it into CARBON

When ancient forests died,

they stored the carbon

When we burn the

COALit releases theancient carbon

and causes

GLOBAL WARMING

The Sun also sends solar energyinto the ocean

It is captured by ocean plankton,

who store it as CARBON

When they die,the ancient carbon

becomes

OIL and GAS

Most of our energy comes from:

COAL, OIL and GASAncient solar energy = ancient carbon

Oil is also a cause of war and conflict

They are all FOSSIL FUELSThey all cause Global Warming

The cars we drive all cause global warming

12.5 million tonnes of coal10 million tonnes of oil

7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas

Every day, we burnthis ancient carbon energy

This gives us lots of ……

POWER!

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuelsGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Earth has a very thin atmosphere which traps and holds the sun’s heat,using CO2, methane, & water vapour.

As we burn the fossil fuels…

When we burn fossil fuels…

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2 CO2

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising

Carbon dioxide traps

Heat warms the air and the oceans

The Arctic Ice is meltingGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Seoul, July 2011

IPCC 2007

www.globalwarmingart.com

+ 2˚C rise

is the Age of Fossil Fuels

10,000 years past

10,000 years future

The Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.

Past Future Age ofFossil Fuels

We are HERE

Glaciers are melting

The Arctic sea ice is melting

Greenland is melting

Antarctica is melting

The last time the world was 3C warmer, the sea level was 25 metres higher

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

If all polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise

92 metres

70 metres

Comparison of Vegetation Zones Average vs Warmer (21st Century) Climate

Kyoto, December 23rd 2006

Mount Fuji in Spring

Mt. Fuji - no snow

All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level

Florida 17 feet (5-6 metres) sea level rise

Hurricane Katrina, August 2005

New Orleans, August 2005

Torrential downpoursand floods

At the current predicted temperature rise,

33%of the Earth will be affected

by extreme drought by 2100

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK), 2006

Number of days over 100°F / 38°C

60 days a year

120+ days a year

At the current predicted temperature rise,

Up to 20%of the world’s economy could be lost

That’s like the Great Depression

and both World Wars combined

Wake up! Call the media! Get on TV!

Climate change is destroying our world!

There’s also a second problem Peak OilGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007

www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

is the Age of Fossil Fuels

This10,000 years past

10,000 years future

The Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.

Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)

CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)

Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming

Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves

All of this must remain in the ground

Do you sometimes feel that it’s all getting

out of control?

So what shall we do?

JAPAN’SENERGY PROBLEM

エネルギー問題

Coal 21%

Oil 46%

Gas 15%

Nuclear 15%

= 1,000 Terawatt hours

a year

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

97% of all Japan’senergy

is imported

Uranium 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

USA 75%France 11%Britain 10%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath

www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf

How serious 切実

is Japan’s Energy Problem?

1. Very serious2. I don’t know3. Not serious

JAPAN’S ENERGY

SOLUTIONS解答

We need…

A 100% Shift to Renewable

Energy

Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com

We need…

A Green Economy

Harmony with Nature

True Sustainability

How much energy does Japan need?

1,000 terawatt hours a year

千テラワット時間今年

Where will the green electricity come from?

Efficient Appliances

LED lights only use

1 to 5 watts

How much energy can Japan SAVE?

200 to 500 terawatt hours a year

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

Solar Power

Ota Solar City, Japan

Solar-powered homesYoshikawa, near Tokyo

Les-Mees, France

Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Dow’s Solar Shingles

Thin film solar

Thin film solar production

The Falling Price of Solar PV

Price of Solar Cells1977: $761981: $241991: $92001: $62011: $1.252013: $0.74

Price of Installed Solar Power

Germany: $2.50 a wattUS & Canada: $5 a wattJapan: $6.50 a watt

How much SOLAR energy could Japan produce?

Solar Millennium AG

Solar thermal energy

Solar One, Nevada, 64 MW

Earth’s total known fossil energy reservesare equivalent to 47 days of solar energy

reaching the Earth’s deserts

How much SOLAR THERMAL energy could Japan produce?

Unknown

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa2-12 cents kWh39 countries could get 100% power = 17% of the world’s people

Geothermal powerNesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland

How much GEOTHERMAL energy could Japan produce?

Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita

Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark

Wind Energy

Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan

Siemens AG

Wind Power in Japan

How much WIND energy could Japan produce?

570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year

How much HYDRO energy could Japan produce?

79 - 140 terawatt hours a year

How much TIDAL energy could Japan produce?

20-70 terawatt hours a year

South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok tidal power plant

The Cost is Falling

1990 2013 2020Wind 30 8-10 8 cents kWh

Solar 200 30 15 cents kWh

THE RESULT

Japan needs 1,000 TWh a year

Low HighEfficiency 200 500Solar 72 300Geothermal 30 500

Wind 570 5000Hydro 79 140Tidal 20 70

TOTAL 971 6510

TRANSPORTATION輸送

SOLUTIONS解答Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013

www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour

= 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

Copenhagen36% of all work trips by bike.

Vancouver, Howe Street

Electric Bicycle

Moto Electra World Record Across US in 3 Days

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Electric Motorbike

Solar electric bicycles in Tokyo

Electric train, running on green electricity

= no climate impact

Public Transit

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net

Electric bus, running on green electricity = no climate impact

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Japan’s Future Electric Bus

Chevy Volt1,400 km on one tank of gas

Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

Smart Electric – 135 km range

Mitsubishi MiEV160 km range

Toyota RAV4 EV148 km range

Tesla Roadster 393 km range

The KIA Pop: yet to be released

STELLA

Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven UniversityFamily size, 4-seater

Roadworthy, legal in HollandWeight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)

Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshineSolar PV cost $4,000

10 months a year it produces more energy than it usesExcess power back into the grid

Electric cars, running on green electricity

= no climate impact

1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year

Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

PV for EV

1.5 kW solar PV $7,500

3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month

Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

Solar RoadwaysIn US, 3 x total electricity demand

www.solarroadways.com

Honda solar electric car charging

Electric car fast charging

Mercedes Biome – made from bioplasticGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com

9 MW of solar panelsRetractable sails between each cargo bay

Self-unloading cargo baysSuperconducting power link

Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cellsSleek, low wind resistance design

Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Telemeetings = no climate impact

BUILDINGSOLUTIONS

We can live and work in green buildings

Or this?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

This…

Or this?

This …

Or this?

Heating 加熱 without Fossil Fuels

Solar Heat + StorageAustria

Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating

Solar Heating from the Air

Ground Source Heat2 million installations in 30 countries

$20,000 to $30,000

Water Source Heat

Ice-Source Heat

Richmond Olympic Skating Oval

Solar Heat

Solar hot wateron a restaurant in

Sweden

Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan

www.solarbc.caA project of the BCSEA

Lindau Hospital, Germany

Rizhao, China

99% of city centre households use solar hot water.60,000 greenhouses, all solar powered.

Whole city plans to become carbon neutral.

Rizhao, ChinaPopulation 3 million

Solar Wall Heating

Welsh Development Agency Technology Center, St. Asaph, Wales

Pearl River Tower

Guangzhou, China

Bahrain World Trade Centre

Virgo Road, Oakland Hills, San FranciscoRobert Nebolon architect

Toyko, Japan

8,000 sq ft zero carbon home designed for Manchester United soccer player Gary Neville

ACROS Fukuoka building in Fukuoka, Japan. 35,000 plants, 76 species

Ogimachi – Shirakawa Farm Village

Tono Furusato Restored Farm Village

Madrid, Spain

Gangnam district, Seoul

ACROS Fukuoka buildingFukuoka, Japan

OUR PAST AND

OUR FUTUREGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

We have been developing intelligencefor millions of years

Our technology is the expression of our

cumulative 累積のshared シェアードintelligence 知性

Where are we going?

We have made our full evolutionary

journeyover 13.8 billion years

We have made our recent

evolutionary journey over ten million years

There will be

a billion years

before the Sun runs out of fueland begins to die

A billion years10億年

We are here

過去Future

将来

Firewood1.5 million years

CumulativeIntelligence

The Carbon Years…

The Carbon Years could be the launch-ramp…

Firewood1.5 million years

Fossil Fuels200 years

The Carbon Years could bethe launch-ramp for the solar years

Firewood Solar1.5 million years

Fossil Solar200 years

True Solar1 billion years

THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL

What is stopping us from making faster progress?

1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗3. Ignorance 不知 4. Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership 指導

FINALTHOUGHTS

A Thousand PossibilitiesGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand

We need to roll up the past.

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com By Iskren Rumenov Petrov, age 14, from Bulgaria

We need to sail away from our old, polluting waysand build a green, sustainable world.

This is about you, your children,and your future.

決意

You have free will We can make a difference

This is about us, our planet,and our future.

Our Home

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

japanese energy crisis

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