kenya population factors and the national vision presenter: 2 photo by felix masi
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KenyaPopulation Factors and the National Vision
Presenter:
2
Ph
oto
by Fe
lix M
asi
Outline
3
The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation
Population and Social and Economic Development
Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services
Policy Response
2
4
3
1
Ou
tlin
e
KenyaNational Vision
4
Vision 2030
“To transform Kenya into a globally competitive, newly industrializing, middle-income country and provide a high quality of life to all of its citizens in a clean and secure environment.”
Ph
oto
by C
hu
bb
y C
han
dru
Vis
ion
Economy and Society
5
How will population growth affect Kenya’s economic growth and social development in the coming decades?
5
Ph
oto
by Z
ori
ah
PopulationPopulation
1999Kenya’s Population Po
pula
tion
6
28.8 Million
Source: 1999 Census
2008
Kenya’s Population Popula
tion
7Source: CBS Population Projections
38.3 Million
Current SituationPopulation Statistics
8
38 million people (2008)
4.6 births per woman (2008)
23% teens ages 15–19 bear children
40% population under age 15
Popula
tion
Sources: Spectrum; DHS 2003, 2008
Photo by Felix Masi
Trend in FertilityKenya, 1989–2008
Popula
tion
9Sources: Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys
Fert
ility
Rate
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
40% of the population is under age 15
Population PyramidKenya’s Youth Bulge
Popula
tion
10
80+75–7970–7465–6960–6455–5950–5445–4940–4435–3930–3425–2920–2415–1910–14
5–90–4
Age (
Years
)
Per cent of the Population
FemaleMale
Source: Spectrum
Under Current Fertility Rate
Population Explosion by 2040
Popula
tion
11
Pop
ula
tion (
Mill
ions)
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Source: Spectrum
82 Million People …
Demographic TransitionBy Assuming a Decline in Fertility
65 Million People
Popula
tion
12
Pop
ula
tion (
Mill
ions)
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Source: Spectrum
Outline
13
The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation
Population and Social and Economic Development
Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services
Policy Response
2
4
3
1
Ou
tlin
e
Africa can learn from East Asia on economic growth
Develo
pm
ent
14
Economic BenefitSlower population growth increases the opportunity for economic growth.
A decline in fertility can be a way out of poverty for many families.
15
Sources: Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World and Population Dynamics and Economic Development: Filling the Research Gaps. P
hoto
by M
oth
ers
Fig
hti
ng
for
Oth
ers
Success StoryThailand, An Asian Tiger
Develo
pm
ent
Source: The World Bank. World Development Indicators, February 3, 2008 16
GD
P P
er
Cap
ita (
US$
2000) Fe
rtility R
ate
Declining FertilityThe “Asian Miracle”
Develo
pm
ent
17
Population quality versus size
Better education
More investment in modern agriculture
More savings and investment, lower dependency ratios
Ph
oto
by U
gg
boy
Outline
Ou
tlin
e
18
The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation
Population and Social and Economic Development
Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services
Policy Response
2
4
3
1
Social PillarVision 2030
“Kenya’s journey towards widespread prosperity involves the building of a just and cohesive society that enjoys equitable social development in a clean and secure environment.”
19
Ph
oto
by C
en
ter
for
Com
mu
nic
ati
on
s Pro
gra
ms
Population GrowthTwo Scenarios
Popula
tion
20
Pop
ula
tion (
Mill
ions)
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Source: Spectrum
Education
Educa
tion
21
Ph
oto
s b
y Z
ori
ah
; C
en
ter
for
Com
mu
nic
ati
on
s Pro
gra
ms
“The education and training of all Kenyans is fundamental to the success of the Vision.” Vision 2030
Source: Spectrum
Primary StudentsFewer Students, More Resources Available per Child
Educa
tion
22
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Pri
mary
Stu
dents
(M
illio
ns)
Sources: Spectrum; Ministry of Education
Primary TeachersFewer Students, Fewer Teachers Required
Educa
tion
23
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Teach
ers
Needed (
Th
ousa
nds)
Primary Education Expenditures
Educa
tion
24
Cumulative Savings US$772 Million
Expendit
ure
s ($
US M
illio
ns)
Sources: Spectrum; Economic Survey 2009
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Savings with Slower Population Growth
143
176
144
222
Better EducationWith Less Population Pressure
Educa
tion
25
More resources for training and teacher incentives
More resources for classrooms and educational material
Smaller classrooms and better learning environments
Progress on MDGs2: Achieve universal primary education
Ph
oto
by R
eb
ecc
a M
bu
y_B
row
n
Health
Healt
h
26
Ph
oto
by M
oth
ers Fig
htin
g fo
r Oth
ers (to
p) a
nd
the D
ep
artm
en
t for In
tern
atio
nal D
evelo
pm
en
t (D
FID) (b
otto
m)
Kenya’s vision for health is to provide “equitable and affordable health care at the highest affordable standard” to her citizens. Vision 2030
Sources: Spectrum; Economic Survey 2009
NursesLess Pressure on Health Providers
Healt
h
27
Nurs
es
Needed (
Thousa
nds)
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Sources: Spectrum; Health Sector Facts and Figures
Health CentresLess Pressure on Health Facilities
Healt
h
28
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Healt
h C
entr
es
Needed
Health ExpendituresIncrease in Savings
Healt
h
29
Cumulative SavingsUS$500 million
Expendit
ure
s (U
S$ B
illio
ns)
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Sources: Spectrum; Economic Survey 2009
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.7
0.34
Birth SpacingReduces Infant Deaths
Healt
h
30Source: 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey
Infa
nt
Death
s per
1,0
00 B
irth
s
Months Since Last Birth
Improved HealthWith Less Population Pressure
Healt
h
31
More resources to train staff and retain staff
Fewer maternal and child deaths
Longer life expectancy
Progress on MDGs4: Reduce child mortality5: Reduce maternal mortality6: Combat HIV/AIDS and malaria
Ph
oto
by M
oth
ers Fig
htin
g fo
r Oth
ers (to
p), A
ng
ela
Sevin
(botto
m)
WaterSustainability
32
Ph
oto
by F
elix
Masi
The Vision for the water and sanitation sector is “to ensure water and improved sanitation availability and access to all by 2030.”
Water Consumption
Wate
r
33
Wate
r C
onsu
mp
tion (
Bill
ion
Lite
rs)
Low Fertility
High Fertility
Less Consumption with Lower Fertility
Sources: Spectrum; Water Services Strategy
Urbanisation
34
Photo by Mark Auer
“Kenya has so far been unable to plan adequately in order to accommodate her increasing urban population. It must now do so under the Vision 2030.”
Urb
anis
ati
on
Urban PopulationUrbanisation Trend
Urb
anis
ati
on
35
Urb
an P
opula
tion (
Mill
ions)
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Sources: Spectrum; Vision 2030
Rapid growth puts increasing pressure on urban infrastructure.
36
Ph
oto
by F
elix
Masi
Urban HousingFewer New Units Required by 2040
Urb
anis
ati
on
37
New
Hou
sing U
nit
s R
equir
ed
(Mill
ions)
Sources: Spectrum; KDHS 2003
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Economic PillarVision 2030
“To maintain sustained economic growth of 10% per annum until 2030.”
Eco
nom
y
38
Ph
oto
s by K
Bu
rns, Le
ila D
ara
bi, K
Bu
rns (to
p to
b
otto
m)
EconomySix key sectors have been identified to deliver the economic growth envisaged under the economic pillar: tourism, agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, business process outsourcing (BPO), and financial services.
Eco
nom
y
39
Ph
oto
s b
y M
ead
uva,
David
Blu
me,
An
geli
Kir
k (t
op
to b
ott
om
)
Economic View
Eco
nom
y
40Source: Kenya Vision 2030
GD
P G
row
th R
ate
(%
)
GDP Growth Rate
GDP Per Capita10% Growth Rate
Eco
nom
y
41
Const
ant
Year
2008 U
S$
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Source: Spectrum
Better EconomyWith Less Population Pressure
Eco
nom
y
43
More funding for social sector
Greater disposable family income for education and health
Lower youth unemployment
Greater stability
Progress on MDGs1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Ph
oto
s by K
arl M
uelle
r, Hod
ag
, Th
e W
orld
Ban
k (top
to
botto
m)
Agriculture and the Environment
44
Ph
oto
by F
elix
Masi
“Agriculture is a mainstay of the Kenyan economy.”
Vision 2030
Food Requirements Agri
cult
ure
45
* Assumes consumption per capita stays at 2007 levelsSources: Spectrum; MOA: Economic Review of Agriculture
Maiz
e R
equ
ired (
Bill
ion T
on
nes) High Fertility
Low Fertility
Less Food Required at Lower Fertility Rate
Actual Production
Land FragmentationHigher Population, Less Land per Holder
Land holdings divided among more family members
Lower productivity from small farms—less food security
Less food per person
Agri
cult
ure
46
Ph
oto
by T
he C
urt C
arn
em
arkW
orld
Ban
k
Issue #1
Lower Productivity
EnvironmentalDegradationHigher Population Leads to Overuse
Overexploitation
Deforestation
Erosion
Less soil fertility
47
Issue #2
Ph
oto
by C
hu
bb
y C
han
dru
Better AgricultureLess Pressure on Resources Used to …
Modernise
Fertilise for higher yields
Improve family nutrition
Reduce environmental degradation
Progress on MDGs1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
7: Ensure environmental sustainability
Agri
cult
ure
48
Ph
oto
by T
he W
orld
Ban
k
Political Pillar
49
Ph
oto
by Z
ori
ah
“… moving to the future as one nation.”
Vision 2030
Population and Stability Youth
Bulg
e
Links between population growth and stability
Conflict over resources
Equity issues
Research has found that:
Youth bulges and armed conflict are strongly correlated
50
Conflict and Equity
Photo by Eirasinn
New Job Requirements
Eco
nom
y
New
Jobs
Requir
ed
(Thousa
nds)
51
Fewer Jobs Needed
High Fertility
Low Fertility
Sources: Spectrum; World Development Indicators
Outline
52
The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation
Population and Social and Economic Development
Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services
Policy Response
2
4
3
1
Ou
tlin
e
Family PlanningKenya
53
Primary factor to lower growth
Many women want to delay or limit births but are not using family planning.
Fam
ily P
lannin
g
Almost 1 in 2 births are
unintended or arrive too soon
Photo by Gunnar Salvarsson
Source: 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey
Family PlanningEmbedded in the Culture
46% of married women of reproductive age use family planning.
Fam
ily P
lannin
g
Source: 2008 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 54
Photo by Kitui
Trends in Family PlanningUse Over Time
Fam
ily P
lannin
g
Sources: Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys 55
Perc
ent
Family PlanningUnmet Need
56
Fam
ily P
lannin
g
Sources: Demographic and Health Surveys
Perc
ent
1 in 4 women want to space or limit births but are not using family planning
Outline
57
The Kenyan Vision and Population Situation
Population and Social and Economic Development
Family Planning and Unmet Need for FP Services
Policy Response
2
4
3
1
Ou
tlin
e
25% of married women want to space or limit births but are not using family planning.
Polic
y R
esp
onse
Unmet NeedHigh Demand in Kenya
58
Source: 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey
Improving access to and use of high-quality, affordable FP services:… will help satisfy unmet need…
… resulting in lower fertility and a lower rate of population growth…
… thereby contributing to social and economic development and achievement of the national vision
ConclusionsFP and the National Vision
59
Ph
oto
by W
en
dy M
cNau
gh
ton
Why and How to ActCost of Inaction Increases with Time Po
licy R
esp
onse
60
There is high population growth, an unbalanced age distribution, and high unmet need for family planning
46% of women already use family planning
Potential for increased use is large (25% unmet need)
Political will is present
Service networks are established and developing
Increase funding for family planning
Ensure the availability of family planning commodities
Expand access via community-based distribution and public and private clinics
Improve information, education, and communication around family planning
ISSUE
OPPORTUNITY
READINESS
ACTIONS
Thank You
61
Population Factors and the National VisionKenya
61Photo by Zoriah
Support for this presentation was provided by the USAID | Health Policy Initiative, Task Order 1
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