key note - lean kanban central europe 2011 - predictability & measurement with kanban

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Which metrics do you use with Kanban? How do you plan and management large projects with Kanban? How has Kanban enabled the concept of "No Estimates" or the use of probabilistic forecasting?

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Lean Kanban

Central EuropeMunich October 2011

Predictability & Measurementwith Kanban

David J. AndersonDavid J. Anderson & Associatesdja@djandersonassociates.com

Advanced

Kanban

Book PublishedApril 2010

A 72,000 wordintro to the topic

Available fromdjandersonassociates.com

http://www.limitedwipsociety.org

Yahoo! Groups: kanbandev

Yahoo! Groups: kanbanops

http://leankanbanuniversity.com

LinkedIn Groups: Software Kanban

Advanced

Kanban

Delivering predictability with Kanban

requires some different techniques

for different types of work such as

software maintenance and support

or

major project work

Advanced

Kanban

Service-oriented work

Advanced

Kanban

Create a regular delivery cadence

Develop a strong config management capability

Develop capability to deploy effectively

Build code with high quality

Advanced

Kanban

Lead Time Distribution

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101

106

Days

# C

Rs

MARCH

Lead Time Distribution

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Days

CR

s &

Bu

gs

APRIL

OutliersMajority of CRs range 30 -> 55

Understand capability by studying the natural philosophy of the work

Advanced

Kanban

For standard class items, offer a target lead time based on the 2nd confidence interval

Advanced

Kanban

For example, SLA of51 days with 98% on-time

(+2 sigma from mean)

Lead Time Distribution

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Days

CR

s &

Bu

gs

Advanced

Kanban

51 days will not be good enough for some feature requests, so offer a package of classes of

service

Advanced

Kanban

Package of Classes with SLAs

As soon as possible Full transparency

100% on-time providing 24 days advance notice

Up to 51 days 98% on-time guarantee

Up to 51 days 50% on-time

Advanced

Kanban

Lead time

Features Delivered

Standard Class Items

Fixed Date Items

Expedite Item

Advanced

Kanban

Allocate capacity across classes of service in order to deliver against anticipated demand

5 4 43 2 2= 20 total

Allocation

10 = 50%

...

+1 = +5%

4 = 20%

6 = 30%

InputQueue

DevReady In Prog DoneDoneIn Prog

DevelopmentAnalysis BuildReady Test

ReleaseReady

Advanced

Kanban

John Seddon has observed that allocating capacity in this fashion

“damages capacity”!

While this is theoretically possible it will almost never happen because

(a) a simple policy can be implemented to temporarily re-allocate

(b) demand is rarely zero for a given type, though Fixed Date class of service can be seasonal

(c) the tickets represent work, not workers, the workforce is flexible. Classes of service &

capacity allocation insure people can keep busy improving utilization not damaging it

Advanced

Kanban

Major Project Work

Advanced

Kanban

Requires all the same underlying data as used in service oriented

work

plus

Advanced

Kanban

Major Project with two-tiered kanban board

Advanced

Kanban

Cumulative Flow andPredictive Modeling with S-Curve

Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow

020406080

100120140160180200220240

Time

Fe

atu

res

Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete

Typical S-curve

Advanced

Kanban

Simulating S-Curve with a Z

Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow

020406080

100120140160180200220240

Time

Fe

atu

res

Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete

20%

60%

20%

Slope in middle3.5x - 5x slope

at ends 5x

Advanced

Kanban

Track actual throughput against projection

Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow

020406080

100120140160180200220240

Time

Fe

atu

res

Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete

Track delta between planned and actual

each day

Advanced

Kanban

Unplanned Work Report

Dark Matter

Scope Creep

Advanced

Kanban

Make a long term plan to build platform replacement

Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow

020406080

100120140160180200220240

Time

Fe

atu

res

Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete

Slope in middle3.5x - 5x slope

at ends 5x

Required throughput (velocity)

2006 2008

Advanced

Kanban

We need average throughput (velocity) to peak at 13 features per month over 24 months.

Advanced

Kanban

Little’s Law

ThroughputLead Time

WIP=

Target to achieve plan

From observed capability

Treat as Fixed variable

Determines staffing level

Advanced

Kanban

Changing the WIP limit without maintaining the staffing level ratio represents a change to the way of

working. It is a change to the system design. And will produce a change in the observed ‘common

cause’ capability of the system

Advanced

Kanban

Plan based on currently observed capability and current working

practices. Do not assume process improvements.

If changing WIP to reduce undesirable effects (e.g.

multitasking), get new sample data (perform a spike) to observe the

new capability

Advanced

Kanban

Little’s Law

13 / month0.25 months

WIP=

Target to achieve plan

From observed capability

Determines staffing level

ÞWIP = 3.25, round up to 4.Might be safe to

round down to 3.

Þ If current working practice is 1 unit WIP per person then 3 people are needed

Advanced

Kanban

Slightly over-allocate the intangible class of service (green) to compensate against expediting

5 4 43 2 2= 20 total

Allocation

12 = 60%

...

+1 = +5%

4 = 20%

4 = 20%

InputQueue

DevReady In Prog DoneDoneIn Prog

DevelopmentAnalysis BuildReady Test

ReleaseReady

Advanced

Kanban

Conclusions

Advanced

Kanban

For Service-oriented work, create predictability with

a regular delivery cadencea strong config management capability

capability to deploy effectivelycode with high quality

For major projects

understand peak throughput (velocity)model the s-curve on work complete

treat the avg. lead time as the fixed variableuse Little’s Law to calculate WIP limits

and staffing levels

Advanced

Kanban

Thank you!

dja@agilemanagement.nethttp://www.agilemanagement.net/

Advanced

Kanban

About…David Anderson is a thought leader in managing effective software teams. He leads a consulting firm dedicated to improving economic performance of knowledge worker businesses – improving agility, reducing cycle times, improving productivity and efficiency in technology development.

He has 25+ years experience in the software industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative agile methods. He developed MSF for CMMI Process Improvement for Microsoft. He is a co-author of the SEI Technical Note, CMMI and Agile: Why not embrace both!

David’s book, Agile Management for Software Engineering – Applying the Theory of Constraints for Business Results, introduced many ideas from Lean and Theory of Constraints into software engineering.

David was a founder of the Lean Software & Systems Consortium, a not for profit dedicated to promoting better standards of professionalism and effectiveness in software engineering. Email… dja@agilemanagement.net

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