largecaps vs smidcaps · 2021. 2. 16. · ge ko msft xom intc msft csco ge intc xom xom wmt pg msft...
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Style Guide:LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
Yardeni Research, Inc.
July 9, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
jabbott@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
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Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps 3-12
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022150
950
1750
2550
3350
4150
4950
150
950
1750
2550
3350
4150
4950
S&P 500/400/600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(daily, ratio scale)
7/2
S&P Stock Price IndexesS&P 500 (4352.34)S&P 400 (2709.57)S&P 600 (1369.68)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 1.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
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.8
.9
1.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
7/2
STYLE RATIOS: SMIDCAPS DIVIDED BY LARGECAPS(daily)
7/2
S&P 400 divided by S&P 500S&P 600 divided by S&P 500
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 2.
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD REVENUES(ratio scale, consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly)
6/24
S&P 500 (1554.33)S&P 400 (1713.26)S&P 600 (1168.57)
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 3.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202410
50
90
130
170
210
250
10
50
90
130
170
210
250
S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS(dollars per share, ratio scale)
7/1
Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (202.57)S&P 400 MidCap (151.71)S&P 600 SmallCap (77.11)
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
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Figure 4.
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
Page 4 / July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
7/2
RELATIVE INDEXES: S&P 600 DIVIDED BY S&P 500(ratio)
Rising line indicates thatSmallCaps outperforming LargeCaps
yardeni.com
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.
Figure 5.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
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375
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425
-25
0
25
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200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
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S&P FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE(weekly, March 5, 2009=0)
7/1
Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (206.7)S&P 400 MidCap (274.1)S&P 600 SmallCap (362.3)
* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus forecast.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
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Figure 6.
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
Page 5 / July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222
3
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S&P FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS*(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 7/1
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Forward Profit Margins*S&P 500 (13.0)S&P 400 (8.4)S&P 600 (6.3)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year using forward earnings divided by forward revenues.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 7.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20228
10
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14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
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10
12
14
16
18
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FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)
7/9
7/9
S&P 500 LargeCap (21.6)S&P 400 MidCap (17.8)S&P 600 SmallCap (17.6)
* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 8.
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
Page 6 / July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
S&P 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED
7/9
yardeni.com
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas are bull markets.Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 9.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 231.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
RATIO OF S&P 500 TO S&P 100 STOCK PRICE INDEXES
7/9
yardeni.com
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas are bull markets.Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 10.
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
Page 7 / July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Figure 11.
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24200
1400
2600
3800
500062007400
7/9S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(ratio scale)
Market-cap-weighted (4369.55)
Equal-weighted (6175.83)
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
7/9
S&P 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TOMARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24100
600
1100
1600
2100
26003100
7/9S&P 400 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(ratio scale)
Market-cap-weighted (2706.42)Equal-weighted (2159.56)
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.55
.60
.65
.70
.75
.80
.85
.90
7/9
S&P 400 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TOMARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2450
450
850
1250
16502050
7/9S&P 600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(ratio scale)
Market-cap-weighted (1359.58)Equal-weighted (1690.73)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
7/9
yardeni.com
S&P 600 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TOMARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
Page 8 / July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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1
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222
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9
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3
4
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9
7/2
S&P 500/400 (1.61)
S&P 500/600 (3.18)
STYLE RATIOS: MARKET WEIGHTED PRICE INDEX (daily)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
.4
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1.4
7/7
7/7yardeni.com
STYLE RATIOS: MARKET CAP(weekly)
S&P 500 Market-Cap Weighted/Equal-Weighted (0.7)S&P 100/500 (0.5)
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 13.
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
Page 9 / July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 235
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
GEKO
MSFTXOMINTC
MSFTCSCO
GEINTCXOM
XOMWMT
PGMSFT
JNJ
AAPLXOMWMTMSFT
GOOGLAAPLAMZNMSFT
GOOGLBRKb
AAPLMSFTAMZN
GOOGLFB
7/2
S&P 500 MARKET CAP: PERCENT SHARE OF TOP 3 AND TOP 5 COMPANIES(weekly, percent)
7/2
Top 5 (24.2)Top 3 (16.8)
Source: Yardeni Research using Standard & Poors and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 14.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
GEKO
MSFTXOMINTC
MSFTCSCO
GEINTCXOM
XOMWMT
PGMSFT
JNJ
AAPLXOMWMTMSFT
GOOGLAAPLAMZNMSFT
GOOGLBRKb
AAPLMSFTAMZN
GOOGLFB
7/2
S&P 500 MARKET CAP: SHARE OF TOP 3 & TOP 5 COMPANIES(percent, weekly)
7/2
Top 5 (24.2)Top 3 (16.8)
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%.Yellow areas are bull markets.Source: Yardeni Research using Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
Page 10 / July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
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1.5
.5
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1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
7/9
yardeni.com
STYLE RATIO:S&P 500 MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED TO EQUAL-WEIGHTED STOCK PRICE INDEXES
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 16.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23.42
.44
.46
.48
.50
.52
.54
.56
.42
.44
.46
.48
.50
.52
.54
.56
7/9
yardeni.com
STYLE RATIO:S&P 100 TO S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 17.
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
Page 11 / July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125S&P PRICE INDEXES(November 8, 2016 = 100)
S&P 500 (104.2)S&P 400 (78.8)S&P 600 (87.3)
Latest data thru: 07/09/21
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
LargeCaps vs SMidCaps
Page 12 / July 9, 2021 / LargeCaps vs SMidCaps www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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