latest retail & consumer market trends - pwc · 2019-06-27 · socially conscious and social...
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What key global retail market trends
have impact on Russian retail
environment and how to adapt
business to changing environment?
PwC has launched special survey for
SPIEF 2019 session "Digitalization of
retail: technology and leadership"
PwC Russia (www.pwc.ru) provides industry-focused assurance, tax, legal and advisory services. Over 2,700 professionals working in PwC offices in Moscow, St Petersburg, Ekaterinburg, Kazan, Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar, Voronezh, Novosibirsk, Vladikavkaz, Ufa, Nizhny Novgorod and Perm share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop fresh perspectives and practical advice for our clients. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Together, these firms form the PwC network, which includes over 250,000 employees in 158 countries. Please see http://www.pwc.ru/ru/about.html for further details.
© 2019 PwC. All rights reserved.
Our latest researches and publications
Latest Retail & Consumer market trends
Q1 2019
We continue the practice of regular
analytical updates showing key
trend on Russian R&C market.
Martijn Peeters
PartnerRetail & Consumer leader, PwC Russia
martijn.peeters@pwc.com+7 (495) 967 6144
Contacts
PwC’s 10th annual Global Consumer
Insights Survey gathers the sentiments
of more than 21,000 online consumers
in 27 territories — shows that
technology has put them in a position
to demand a tailored, channel-agnostic,
socially conscious and social media-
powered experience.
1Global consumer insights survey 2019
(Russian edition)
2Digital era in retail: Future success
depends on the ability to adjust to
digitized environment now
3Regular market research update
Find more publications at:
Perekrestok 7,6% 12,7%
11,6%Pyaterochka
5,0% 4,9%Lenta
0,6% 8,3%Magnit
0,7
Karusel
O’KEY
How do consumers assess changes in their financial situation
in the last 12 months?, % of respondents
Readiness for large purchases, % of respondents
Retail turnover growth*, Q4’17 – Q1’19, Y-o-Y, %
-1,3% 2,0%
-1,4
LfL Sales
% growth based on
other factors,
including opening /
closing stores
Total % revenue
change, Q1’19 to
Q1’18, %
Acceleration of current inflation has not strongly reflected consumer
expectations
GDP growth declined mostly due to increased VAT rate, accelerated
inflation and reduction of real retail sales
Average real wage growth, Y-o-Y, %
31 27 27 31 31 34
5758 58 56 55 52
14 13 12 12 1311
Q2,18
Worsened
No change
+3 p.p.
Q1,19
Improved
Q4,18Q1,18Q4,17 Q3,18
Key trends in consumer behaviour, % of respondents
Q3,18
2.2
Q2,18
2.2
Q1,18
1.9
Q4,17
2.7 -2.2 p.p.
Q4,18 Q1,19
0.5
0.3
Russian real GDP*, Q4,17 – Q1,19 growth, Y-o-Y, (constant 2016 prices), %
Inflation, Y-o-Y, Q4’17 – Q1’19, %
8.7
Q1,18
9.5
10.5
8.6
Q4,17
3.0
9.4
2.4
9.1
Q2,18
2.32.6
Q1,19
9.9
10.2
5.2
Q4,18
10.1
Q3,18
9.9 9.8
3.9
10.3
1.3
Q4,18 Q1,19Q1,18Q4,17
6.35.9
4.17.6
10.2
Q2,18 Q3,18
Current Observed Expected
Accelerated inflation and transfer of wage indexation in public sector
have led to decline in real wage growth
More families believe that their financial situation got worse in Q1 2019
25
2025
2221
22
35
30
32
2927
29
Q1,18 Q2,18Q4,17 Q1,19Q4,18Q3,18
There is a noticeable shift to purchasing cheaper products after pre-VAT
increased spending
Buy cheaperBuy less
More consumers believe current period is bad for large purchases
-37 -33 -35 -35 -36 -38
25 23 21 23 2124
Bad
Q3,18 Q4,18Q4,17 Q1,18 Q2,18
Good
Q1,19
Retail turnover growth was limited by decline in real disposable incomes
which were not compensated by consumer loans
2.4
3.9
Q1,19
3.0
Q4,18Q1,18
2.4
Q4,17
2.6
3.0
1.8
Q2,18
2.7
2.72.3
5.2
Q3,18
2.6
569586538551567
592
Q1,18 Q1,19Q2,18 Q3,18 Q4,18Q4,17
Average check, Q4’17 – Q1’19, Q-o-Q, RUB
Estimation of Y-o-Y revenue growth by factors*, Q1’19 to Q1’18, %
*LfL effect was estimated based on reported revenue numbers and LfL revenue growth rates. LfL revenue
growth rates have been applied to total revenue of the previous period, as share of LfL revenue is not
available.
Turnover Inflation
*Source: Federal State Statistics Service – updated estimates of previous periods Source: FOM, PwC Analysis Source: ROMIR
Source: Central Bank of Russian, FOM
Source: Federal State Statistics Service
Source: FOM, PwC Analysis
Source: FOM, PwC Analysis
*Source: Central Bank of Russia, Federal State Statistics Service - updated estimates of
previous periods
Source: Company reports, PwC analysis
4,7%
Average check has declined following seasonal trend after New Year
period
-3,4% 2,0%
8,9
9,9
16,3
20,3
Most of leading food retailers maintain positive LfL sales growth in
smaller formats stores
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