leaving no one behind - escap communities€¦ · leaving no one behind disaster resilience for...

LEAVING

NO ONE

BEHIND

Disaster Resilience for

Sustainable

Development

Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2017

Message #1

As Asia-Pacific grows rapidly,

disaster risk is outpacing resilience.

Human cost significant

Asia-Pacific:

Human cost of natural disasters,

1970–2016

• 2 million lives lost (56% of global)

• 88 per cent of people affected

Earthquak

e

45%

Storm

37%

Flood

10%

Others

8%

Asia-Pacific

2,038,976

High income

Middle income

Low income

134,957

deaths

100,358

deaths

582,029

deaths

Low income countries have highest mortality risks

5 times

more deaths than

high income

countries

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Low Income Middle Income High Income

15 times

more deaths per

disaster event than

high income countries

Deaths per disaster event,

2000-2015

Deaths per income

group for all

natural hazards,

2000-2015

Economic cost: A loss of $1.3 trillion due to

natural disasters (1970-2016)

Estimated

damage, as % of

GDP, is rising in

the Asia-Pacific

region 0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Asia and the Pacific Rest of the World

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1991

cyclone,

Bangladesh

2004

tsunami,

Indonesia

2004

tsunami,

India

2008

cyclone,

Myanmar

2015

earthquake,

Nepal

2015

floods,

Myanmar

Male

Female

Females are disproportionately affected

SIDS and LDCs

disproportionately affected

Vulnerable groups suffer more

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

SIDS LDCs LLDCs Others

Ave

rage

Annual

Loss

, %

of

GD

P

(by 2030)

0.0%

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

SIDS LDCs LLDCs Others

Esti

mat

ed D

amag

e p

er y

ear,

%

of

GD

P

(2000-2016)

Message #2

Countries in East and North-East Asia

face huge impacts from natural disasters.

Disaster impacts by subregion, 2000-2016

East and North-East Asia suffers a lot

$546.6 billion

1.67 billion

137,628

$73.2 billion

259 million

362,335

$94 billion

1.19 billion

261,207

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Economicdamage

Affected

Fatality

ENEA SEA SSWA NCA Pacific

Disaster impacts in East and North-East Asia, 2000-2016

Mainly from earthquakes, floods, storms, and droughts

$300.7 billion

63 million

112,099

$111.1 billion

834 million

13,625

$103.7 billion

350 million

6,179

$14 billion

341 million

$17 billion

86 million

5,591

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Economic damage

Affected

Fatalities

Earthquake Flood Storm Drought Others

Countries lost a lot and are expected to lose a lot

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

China DPR Korea Japan Mongolia Rep. ofKorea

Damage per year, 2000-2016 (% of GDP)

Others Storm Flood Earthquake

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

China Japan Mongolia Rep. of Korea

Average annual loss by 2030

(% of GDP)

Earthquake Wind Storm surge

Tsunami Floods Volcano

Dzud in Mongolia

Dzud-affected area, 2016-2017

In the affected regions,

• 6 per cent of livestock died

• 157,000 people affected,

including:

2,500 pregnant women,

26,000 children under

five and

13,000 elderly people

Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies,

Mongolia: Severe Winter, 26 December 2016.

Message #3

Empirical observations and models

show that hazards are intensifying.

Tropical cyclones will have

shorter return periods with

increasing storm surges and wind

speeds.

The track of tropical cyclones

may shift eastward or northward

in the West and North Pacific

basin.

Three times increase in the

number of people and economic

assets exposed

Tropical cyclone – increasing complexity

Estimated Flood Risk

High in many parts of the region

Transboundary flooding (Scenarios 2010 and 2030)

$34.7B

$16.5B

$6.3B

Ganges-Bramaputra-Meghna Bangladesh, Bhutan, China and India

$5.2B

Indus China, Pakistan and India

$1B

$1.5B

Mekong Cambodia, China, Lao PDR,

Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam

$0.9B

$1B $1.9B

Amur China and Russian Federation

$0.9B

$1B $1.5B

A substantial increase in

flood losses under both

moderate and severe climate

scenarios.

China, India, Bangladesh and

Pakistan will experience two

to three times more in flood

losses

The transboundary flood

losses will range from 1.2 to 6

times more in the major river-

basins

Water stress in Asia and the Pacific

Drought risk will increase

substantially and there will be

significant shifts in its geography.

In South Asia it will be towards

the west, while in South East

Asia, it’s towards the east.

The new geography of drought

will cause deep uncertainties on

how to manage the risk.

Drought severity by 2030

climate change could increase

the risk of hunger and malnutrition

Projected 2050 Climate

Vulnerability Index

Hunger and Climate

Vulnerability Index

Many cities in high disaster risk areas

Rapidly Growing

Many cities in high disaster risk areas

Rapidly Growing

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

2015

2030

2015

2030

2015

2030

2015

2030

2015

2030

EN

EA

SSW

ASE

AN

CA

Pac

ific

Millions

Extreme High Medium Moderate Low

Message #4

Addressing unmet needs of multi-

hazard early warning systems is crucial.

ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster

and Climate Preparedness

ESCAP

Multi-donor Trust

Fund

24 Members

ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund for

Tsunami, Disaster and Climate

Preparedness in Indian Ocean and

Southeast Asian Countries.

ESCAP

Multi-donor Trust

Fund

13 Member States

19 Collaborating Countries

Regional Integrated Multi-

Hazard Early Warning

System for Africa and Asia

RIMES IOTWS

The Indian Ocean

Tsunami Warning and

Mitigation System

PTC/TC

Panel on Tropical Cyclones/

Typhoon Committee

PTC 8 Members

TC 14 Members

Partners

- Asian Disaster

Preparedness Center,

- UN Agencies

- NGOs

$15 million

National

Governments

- South East Asia

- South Asia

- Pacific (PNG, Fiji,

Samoa)

Strengthened

Regional

Cooperation

ESCAP Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster

and Climate Preparedness Pillars

Focus:

Deepen and extend regional cooperation mechanisms, particularly for high risk, low capacity countries

Enhanced Early Warning Regional

Cooperation

Focus:

Ensure that no one is left behind, particularly in communities affected by conflict and forced displacement.

Multi-Hazard Early Warning for All

Focus:

Invest in Climate Risk Management, by enhancing long term risk analysis and impact-based, people-centred forecasting

Investing in Climate Risk Management

Focus:

Promote scientific, technological and communications advances relevant to disaster preparedness and early warning in high risk, low capacity countries in Asia-Pacific

Harnessing Innovation, Science and Technologies

Thank you!