lecture 3
Post on 30-Dec-2015
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Today's lecture
• Diffusion of innovation
• Development of technologies
• Dominant design
• Technologies as systems
Innovation as a process
Perhaps the best definition is that: ”Innovation process is as much a journey as a destination” (Van de Van et al. 1999). It means that: ”the more we know about this journey, the more rewarding it is likely to be”.
Percentage ownership
Internet Cell phones
PC
Television
Micro-
wave
Radio
VCRElectricity
Airplanes
Telephones
Automobiles
Rogers empirical
• Innovators: 2.5%
• Early Adopters: 13.5%
• Early majority: 34%
• Late majority 34%
• Laggards 16%
E. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations (1962)
Rogers model
Knowledge Persuation Decision Implementation Confirmation
•Previous practice
•Felt needs
•Innovativness
•Social norms
•Mandate
•Peer review
•Relative advantage
•Compatibility
•Complexity
•Triability
•Observability
•YES
•NO
•Switch/change•Use
Bass model
A theoretical model
dN(t)/dt= [p+q*N(t)/m]*[m-N(t)]
N(t)=Cumulative units in the market
m=total market size (saturation)
p= nonimitation (internal)q= imitation (external)
That is when N(t)=m the market is saturated
Radical vs. Incremental
• Radical innovations – include breakthroughs that change the nature of products and
services– contribute to the technological revolutions– usually requires greater investment in basic research – may follow different diffusion patterns
• Incremental innovations – include minor changes to existing products, which cumulatively
improve the performance or cost of products and services– Incremental innovation is the most common from and tends to
reinforce the position of establish firms, allowing them to exploit what they know to help them do things better (Utterback, 1994).
Competing technologies
• In 1794 the Earl of Stanhope built a steam-powered vessel named the Kent.
• 1820 North sea• 1830 Mediterranean
sea• 1840 Atlantic • 1850 China
Performance
Time
Sail Steam
Hulls
• Steam– Slow (fouling)- 10
knots compared to almost the double for sail
– Reliable?
Tonnage Timber Iron
1850 120,000 12,800
1860 147,000 65,000
1870 161,000 255,000
1880 20,000 495,000
Great age of sail ships 1860-1880
• Sail– Increase
cargo capacity (x2)
– Advances in oceanographyTrade winds: storms & Currents
– Steel wires
• Suez channel (1869)
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