life expectancy isn’t always fair · 2018-04-11 · 2 life expectancy, gains have varied by...
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Life Expectancy Isn’t Always Fair
Enrolled Actuaries Meeting General Session 3
Steve GossOffice of the Chief Actuary
Social Security Administration
April 11, 2018
2
Life Expectancy, Gains Have Varied by GenderBut life expectancy is a potentially misleading statistic
2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Period Life Expectancy at 652017 Trustees Report Intermediate
Male Female
Males falling behind
Males catching
up
Survival Curves Tell a More Complete StoryWe are living longer, but there are limits, and progress is slowing
33
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Survival Curve U.S. Female: Period Data
19001925
1950
1975
2000
2013
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Survival Curve U.S. Male: Period Data
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2013
Variation by Education and Earnings Level
Distribution has been changing for each– So best to look at Percentiles
Death rates, and change in death rates– Allow for comparison of actual experience
Education and earnings level correlated– Both reflect relative advantages– Nature and nurture
4
Female Death Rates by Education Level at 65-85John Bound et al.(2014)
Female Non-Hispanic-White Population Annualized Death Rates from Age 65 to 85
by Educational Attainment
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
All < HighSchool
Low 25%Education
High 75%Education
19902010
5
Male Death Rates by Education Level at 65-85John Bound et al. (2014)
Male Non-Hispanic-White Population Annualized Death Rates from Age 65 to 85
by Educational Attainment
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
All < HighSchool
Low 25%Education
High 75%Education
19902010
6
Death Rates Vary by Career Earnings Ranking Difference has increased for females (2014)
Female 65-69 Retired-Worker Relative Death Rates by AIME Quartile
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.6
1 2 3 4
19902010
7
Death Rates Vary by Career Earnings Ranking Difference has increased for males too (2014)
Male 65-69 Retired-Worker Relative Death Rates by AIME Quartile
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.6
1 2 3 4
19902010
8
Relative Death Rates for Age 65-9 Social Security RetireesDifferential has been expanding slowly for females (Bosley 2018)
9
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2000 2005 2010 2015
Relat
ive M
orta
lity
Ratio
Year
Females
Lowest AIMEQuintile
2nd AIMEQuintile
3rd AIMEQuintile
4th AIMEQuintile
Highest AIMEQuintile
Relative Death Rates for Age 65-9 Social Security RetireesExpansion may be reversing for males?? (Bosley 2018)
10
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2000 2005 2010 2015
Rela
tive
Mor
talit
y Ra
tio
Year
Males
Lowest AIMEQuintile
2nd AIMEQuintile
3rd AIMEQuintile
4th AIMEQuintile
Highest AIMEQuintile
Mortality Decline Varies Over TimeConditions: Antibiotics/economy 1936-54; Medicare/Medicaid 1968-82
Female Historical and Projected (2014 Trustees Report) Annual Percent Reduction in U.S. Mortality Rates
0
1
2
3
4
5
Under Age 15 Ages 15 - 49 Ages 50 - 64 Ages 65 - 84 Ages 85 andolder
Total
1900 to 19361936 to 19541954 to 19681968 to 19821982 to 2010
Male Historical and Projected (2014 Trustees Report) Annual Percent Reduction in U.S. Mortality Rates
-10
123
45
Under Age 15 Ages 15 - 49 Ages 50 - 64 Ages 65 - 84 Ages 85 andolder
Total
1900 to 19361936 to 19541954 to 19681968 to 19821982 to 2010
11
Mortality Decline by Cause of Death: Rate of change from 1979 to 2013
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Under 15 15-49 50-64 65-84 85+
CardiovascularCancerViolenceRespiratoryOther
FEMALE
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Under 15 15-49 50-64 65-84 85+
MALE
12
Mortality Experience: Ages 65 and OlderReductions since 2009 continue to fall short of expectations
131313
Factors Affecting Future ChangeSmoking - still some effect for females who
started and stopped later than menObesity - major factor yet to be fully
exploredHealth spending and access - will this be
even, or differ greatly by earnings level?
14
Trends in Obesity: US 1971-2006 Sam Preston 2010—must consider cumulative effects
Increasing duration of obesity for aged in future
1515
Health Spending Cannot Continue to Rise at Historical RatesNote Trustees’ deceleration
16
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1970-1980 1980-2010 2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2085
Annual Percent Change in Medicare Cost per Beneficiary Relative to GDP per Worker: 2015 TR
1616
17
For More Information…http://www.ssa.gov/oact/
Documentation of Trustees Report data & assumptions https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2017/2017_Long-Range_Demographic_Assumptions.pdf
Historical and projected mortality rateshttps://www.ssa.gov/oact/HistEst/DeathHome.html
Actuarial Studies and Noteshttps://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/actstud.html
17
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