livestock, poultry, and dairy: situation and outlook · 2012-08-23 · npb. cme-group. canadian...
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Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Situation and Outlook
AAEA Annual MeetingExtension TrackAugust 14, 2012
James G. RobbDirector
james.robb@lmic.info
USDA Members:ERSAPHISGIPSANASSWAOBAMS
Associate Members:AFBFASINCBANPBCME-GroupCanadian ConsortiumNoble FoundationCoBankTCFACWBTCU
29 land Grant Universities:
Topics: Markets, Numbers and …
• U.S. Consumer and Per Capita Disappearance• Feedstuffs are the Key• Some International Trade Comments• Sector Highlights
• Chicken• Hogs/Pork• Dairy• Cattle/Beef
USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERSAll Forecasts – LMIC
US Consumer and Consumption (Disappearance)
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
Quarterly
26000
28500
31000
33500
36000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dollars
CurrentDollar
2005Dollar
Data Source: Dept Commerce-BEA
Data Source: LMIC
RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEXFirst Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100
10095 94
86 8783 86
75 77 7680 80 83 83
9187 85 85 82 81
74 77 80
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Index Value
Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
U S BEEF CONSUMPTIONPer Capita, Retail Weight, Annual
50
55
60
65
70
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Pounds
U S RED MEAT & POULTRY CONSUMPTIONPer Capita, Retail Weight, Annual
0
50
100
150
200
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Pounds
Turkey
TotalChicken
Pork
Beef
Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
Drought – A Game Changer
Feedstuffs are Key
U S TOTAL CORN SUPPLY AND PRICECrop Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Bil. Bushels
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00$ Per Bushel
SupplyPrice
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
U.S. CORN DISAPPEARANCE AND STOCKSCrop Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Bil. Bushels
Stocks
Exports
Food, Seed& Industrial
Feed &Residual
Trade Comments
U S BROILER EXPORTSAs a Percentage of Broiler Production, RTC, Annual
0
5
10
15
20
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Percent
Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
U S NET PORK EXPORTSAs a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual
-8
-3
2
7
12
17
22
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Percent
Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
CHEESE AND CURD EXPORTSMonthly
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 MT
Avg.2006-010
2011
2012
Data Source: USDA-FAS
U S BEEF AND VEAL NET IMPORTSAs a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Percent
Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
FEEDER CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICOWeekly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
JAN APR JUL OCT
Thou. Head
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
Data Source: USDA-AMS & APHIS
CANADA CATTLE INVENTORYJanuary 1, Annual
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Mil. Head (Cow s & Heifers)
12.2
12.7
13.2
13.7
14.2
14.7
15.2
Mil. Head (Total)
Beef Cows
Beef HeiferReplacements
Total CattleInventory
Data Source: Statistics Canada
Chicken & Pork
BROILER EGGS SETWeekly
175180185190195200205210215220
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
Mil. Eggs
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
Data Source: USDA-NASS
RTC BROILER PRODUCTIONQuarterly
8.0
8.4
8.8
9.2
9.6
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.2007/11
2012
2013
2014
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
RTC TURKEY PRODUCTIONQuarterly
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.2007/11
2012
2013
2014
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
SOW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
Thou. Head
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
Data Source: USDA-NASS
PIGS PER LITTERQuarterly
7.2
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.2
9.7
10.2
10.7
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Head
Data Source: USDA-NASS
COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTIONQuarterly
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.2007/11
2012
2013
2014
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
CLASS III MILK PRICESFMMO, Monthly
12.0013.0014.0015.0016.0017.0018.0019.0020.0021.0022.0023.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$ Per Cwt
Avg.2006-010
2011
2012
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Data Source: USDA-NASS
DAIRY COW INVENTORYUS Total, Monthly
9140
9160
9180
9200
9220
9240
9260
9280
JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV
Thou Head
Avg.2006-010
2011
2012
DAIRY COW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
JAN
APRJU
LOCT
Thou. Head
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Cattle/Beef
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORYU.S., Annual
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Mil. Head
MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES500-600 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly
100110120130140150160170180190200
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.2006-10
2011
2012
Data Source: USDA-AMS
COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTIONQuarterly
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Avg.2007/11
2012
2013
2014
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICESSouthern Plains
55
75
95
115
135
155
175
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
$ Per Cwt
500-600lbSteerCalves
700-800lbFeederSteers
FedSteers
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Forecasts by LMIC
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNSReturns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per Cow
Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC
CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVENCattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$ Per Cwt
SteerPrice
Breakeven
ProjectedBreakeven
Latest Data: July 2012
Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC
Thank You!
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