local air pollution and global climate change a cost-benefit analysis by bollen, j., brink, c.,...
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Local Air Pollution and Global Climate Change
A Cost-Benefit Analysis
by
Bollen, J., Brink, C., Eerens, H., and van der Zwaan, B.
Johannes BollenDutch Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP)TFIAM
LAP 75%GCC 25%
60%40%
45%55%
LAP = Local Air PollutionGCC = Global Climate Change
2000 2020 2020Total (bn €'s) 1.9 6.7 12.8
MaximumCurrent Feasible
Legislation Reductions
calculations based on:1]RAINS/Milieubalans(MNP,2005)2] 2% growth yr-1 of GDP
Dutch share of expenditures on LAP and GCC may shift dramatically
Results CBA on LAP & GCC
• Discounted LAP benefits significantly exceed those of GCC
• LAP policies alone lead to modest CO2 emission reductions, but magnify when combined with GCC policies
• LAP expenditures in EU decline from GCC policy expenditures
LAP = Local Air PollutionGCC = Global Climate ChangeCBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
MERGE model (Manne&Richels) + LAP
• Top-down economy + bottom-up energy• Intertemporal maximization of discounted utility
– Abatement "where", "when“, and "what" flexibility
• 9 regions, Pareto-efficient solutions for 2010-2150• Market and much larger non-market damages
(human health, biodiversity)
+ LAP:Restrict to primary energy related particulate matter +
precautionary assumption– 6% attributive risk of premature deaths from long-term
exposure– Value of Statistical Life at Median values (1 million euro)
LAP = Local Air PollutionGCC = Global Climate ChangeCBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
8 million PM death4.7 0Celsius
8 million PM death3.0 0Celsius
93 million PM death3.3 0Celsius
Discounted LAP benefits significantly larger than GCC benefits (ratio >> 1!!!!)
Temperature in 2150 = 4.8 0Celsius compared pre-industrial levelBaseline: Premature Deaths to PM2.5 = 108 million over 2000-2150 period
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
GCC LAP GCC+LAP
GCC LAP Costs
% c
hang
e of
dis
coun
ted
cons
umpt
ion
LAP = Local Air PollutionGCC = Global Climate ChangeCBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
Are we certain???
-1
bas
e
ratio
5
3.0
8
% o
f D
isco
un
ted
C
onsu
mp
tion
ratio
Global Temperature Change (Celsius)
3.0
Premature Deaths in 2000-2150 (millions)
ratiobenefits
3.0
Benefits GCC Benefits LAP Costs
0
2
4
LAP = Local Air PollutionGCC = Global Climate ChangeCBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
hig
her
PM
em
issi
ons
in d
evel
opin
g co
un
trie
s
6
3.1
9
hig
her
urb
aniz
atio
nin
dev
elop
ing
cou
ntr
ies
7
3.0
8
low
er e
last
icit
yem
issi
on-c
once
ntr
atio
n
4
3.1
12lo
wer
cli
mat
ese
nsi
tivi
ty
21
2.3
8
hig
her
cli
mat
ese
nsi
tivi
ty
2
4.1
8
low
er V
alu
e of
Sta
tist
ical
Lif
e
3
3.0
10
hig
her
Val
ue
ofS
tati
stic
al L
ife
12
3.0
7
Pre
srip
tive
dis
cou
nti
ng
4
2.4
8
Val
ue
of s
tais
tica
l lif
e in
pu
rch
asin
g p
ower
par
ity
31
3.1
7
hig
her
Cli
mat
e C
han
ge d
amag
e va
luat
ion
2
2.8
8
low
er C
lim
ate
Ch
ange
dam
age
valu
atio
n
14
3.3
8
Yes, ratio betweenLAP and GCC benefits fallls in the range of 2-31
Co-benefits from LAP to GCC magnify when implementing climate policies (synergy!!!)
Western EuropeChina
gasoilcoal
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
20000.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
2000
Pg
C
CO2 emissions in 2050
LAP = Local Air PollutionGCC = Global Climate ChangeCBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
base baseGCC GCCLAP LAPGCC+LAP GCC+LAP
LAP expenditures in EU decline from GCC policies
Western Europe
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO
2 in
Gt
C
1.2
1.7
2.2
2.7
LA
P E
xpen
dit
ure
s (b
n 2
000
US
$)
LAP GCC+LAP
LAP (right) GCC+LAP (right)
CO2 Emissions:
End-of-pipe abatement costs:
LAP = Local Air PollutionGCC = Global Climate ChangeCBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
Results CBA on LAP & GCC
• Discounted LAP benefits = 2-31 * GCC benefits
• LAP policies alone lead to modest CO2 emission reductions, but magnify when combined with GCC policies
• LAP expenditures in EU decline from GCC policies
• Caveat: this analysis restricts to primary PM
LAP = Local Air PollutionGCC = Global Climate ChangeCBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
Preliminary Policy conclusions
• No delay with GCC policies, but
• integrate them into LAP strategies (it is the robust option)
• Increase research to reduce uncertainty of GCC
LAP = Local Air PollutionGCC = Global Climate ChangeCBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
Further and related work
• This work: – Paper will be finalized by mid-June
• Further work: – extend LAP to include
1] Secondary aerosols (and increase the PM concentrations)
2] SO2, NOx, and NH3 emissions and abatement cost curves
• Related work: – on MNP web-site entitled “Sustainable energy: trade-offs
and synergies between energy security, competitiveness, and environment”
LAP = Local Air PollutionGCC = Global Climate ChangeCBA = Cost Benefit Analysis
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