long range visioning workshop november 13,14,15 th 2007 tim watkins envision u

Long Range Visioning Long Range Visioning WorkshopWorkshop

November 13,14,15November 13,14,15thth 2007 2007

Tim WatkinsTim Watkins

Envision UEnvision U

1.1. What is Envision MissoulaWhat is Envision Missoula

2.2. What happens tonightWhat happens tonight

3.3. A few things to considerA few things to consider

Tomorrow’s roads, transit Tomorrow’s roads, transit lines, and trails are born here!lines, and trails are born here!

Hundreds of millions of dollars will be Hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent in the next few decades to keep spent in the next few decades to keep Missoula mobileMissoula mobile

These investments will follow a These investments will follow a transportation plan that has its kickoff transportation plan that has its kickoff tonight!tonight!

R e g i o n’ sF u t u r e

L a n d

P l a n s Transportatio

Typical Transportation Typical Transportation Decisions…Decisions…

““If you don’t know If you don’t know where you’re going, where you’re going,

you’ll probably end up you’ll probably end up somewhere else.”somewhere else.”

Alice in WonderlandAlice in Wonderland

Contrast Contrast today’s today’s potential potential choices by choices by projecting projecting long-term long-term consequenceconsequencess

200,000 200,000

Transportation and Land use VisionTransportation and Land use Vision

DevelopmentIdeas

Transportation Ideas

Air Quality

Area Developed

Transit Use

Traffic

Miles of Driving

Open Space

Housing Variety

Scenarios contrast choices and Scenarios contrast choices and consequencesconsequences

What-If?What-If?ScenarioScenario

About About HowHow we Grow, we Grow, not not How MuchHow Much we Grow we Grow

Envision Missoula looks at the Envision Missoula looks at the range of decisions we could range of decisions we could make todaymake today

Projects impacts to 200,000 Projects impacts to 200,000 population simply to help us population simply to help us see the potential very long-see the potential very long-term consequencesterm consequences

Did you know…Did you know…

Bend, Oregon metro area doubled from 75,000 to 150,000 between 1990 and 2006.

Boise, Idaho metro area doubled from 295,000 to nearly 600,000 between 1990 and 2007.

St. George, Utah metro area nearly tripled from 48,000 to almost 135,000 between 1990 and 2007.

Envision Missoula OverviewEnvision Missoula Overview

Workshops: November 13 to 15Workshops: November 13 to 15 Become…Become…

Alternative Scenarios: released Alternative Scenarios: released in Januaryin January

Envision Missoula Summit: Envision Missoula Summit: FebruaryFebruary Reaction to scenarios’ ideas Reaction to scenarios’ ideas

Vision Scenario and Vision Scenario and Transportation Planning Transportation Planning Principles: MarchPrinciples: March

Transportation Plan that Transportation Plan that responds to the visionresponds to the vision

Scenarios OverviewScenarios Overview

What they have in commonWhat they have in common Same population and Same population and

employment totalsemployment totals

How they differHow they differ Transportation IdeasTransportation Ideas Development patternsDevelopment patterns

We can attribute the We can attribute the projected consequences to the projected consequences to the different strategiesdifferent strategies

Scenarios compared against a Scenarios compared against a Baseline ScenarioBaseline Scenario

Control in the experimentControl in the experiment

Extrapolates past trendsExtrapolates past trends

Assumes existing plansAssumes existing plans

Value-neutral – no claim as to Value-neutral – no claim as to whether it is ‘good’ or ‘bad’whether it is ‘good’ or ‘bad’

What might ‘Business as Usual What might ‘Business as Usual 200,000’ look like?200,000’ look like?

Driving distances increase about 30% per home

Time stuck in traffic per home increases by 14 times

Over 100 new square miles of development

1 to 11/2 acres per new home

Tonight we start developing Tonight we start developing alternative Scenarios…alternative Scenarios…

Tonight’s WorkshopTonight’s Workshop

Brainstorm your favorite ideas for the Brainstorm your favorite ideas for the future of the 5 valleys…future of the 5 valleys…

With 7 other strangers….With 7 other strangers….

Where is development not preferred?Where is development not preferred? Vision desired new places Vision desired new places

What would development for the next What would development for the next 100,000 look like?100,000 look like?

What transportation ideas will help What transportation ideas will help people get around?people get around?

MaterialsMaterials BasemapBasemap MarkersMarkers Transportation TapeTransportation Tape

ChipsChips

Open SpaceOpen Space

• Where would Where would you prefer to you prefer to not have not have growth?growth?

0 1 20.5Inches

IF Missoula were to double, IF Missoula were to double, how would you want it to how would you want it to

happen?happen?

100K more people100K more people 50K more homes50K more homes 60K more jobs60K more jobs

Trade Your ChipsTrade Your Chips

500 HH500 HH

500 HH

Rural Rural EstateEstate

DU per Acre: 1/5Employment per Acre: N/A

Rural Rural ClusterCluster

DU per Acre: 1/5Employment per Acre: N/A

SuburbaSuburban Lown Low

DU per Acre: 2Employment per Acre: N/A

SuburbaSuburban Highn High

SuburbaSuburban n

MediumMedium

Village Village ResidentiResidenti

NeighborhooNeighborhood Centerd Center

DU per Acre: 14Employment per Acre: 10

Suburban Suburban CommerciCommerci

DU per Acre: N/AEmployment per Acre: 20

Office Office ParkPark

DU per Acre: N/AEmployment per Acre: 40

Big Box Big Box CenterCenter

DU per Acre: N/A Employment per Acre: 30

Town Town CenterCenter

Urban Urban CoreCore

City City CenterCenter

DU per Acre: 36 Employment per Acre: 80

Transportation Tape typesTransportation Tape types

Walking/ BicyclingWalking/ Bicycling Bike dedicated lanes or routesBike dedicated lanes or routes Trails (walk and bike)Trails (walk and bike)

AutoAuto CollectorsCollectors ArterialsArterials HighwaysHighways

TransitTransit Frequent bus serviceFrequent bus service High capacity transit (e.g., BRT or streetcar)High capacity transit (e.g., BRT or streetcar)

Consider street characteristics Consider street characteristics and place types together… do and place types together… do

they fit?they fit?

Bike Bike FacilitiesFacilities

Cost per Mile: $ x.xx

Trails & Trails & Pedestrian Pedestrian

PathsPaths

HighwayHighwayArterial Arterial RoadRoad

Collector Collector RoadRoad

High High Capacity Capacity TransitTransit(brt or (brt or rail)rail)

Frequent Frequent Bus Bus

ServiceService

1.1. Cross hatch areas where growth is Cross hatch areas where growth is not preferred (open space, ag, or not preferred (open space, ag, or just ‘the last place to grow’)just ‘the last place to grow’)

2.2. Place chips to create desired Place chips to create desired communities for the next 100,000 communities for the next 100,000 peoplepeople

3.3. Contemplate key transportation Contemplate key transportation facilities to handle the growth facilities to handle the growth challengechallenge

4.4. Groups select a spokesperson and Groups select a spokesperson and present key ideas to all participantspresent key ideas to all participants

Each table presents its Each table presents its ideasideas

GuidelinesGuidelines

Not creating a plan Not creating a plan tonighttonight

Vision, avoid Vision, avoid predictingpredicting

Everyone’s opinions Everyone’s opinions count – seek rough count – seek rough consensusconsensus

Facilitators are Facilitators are there to help, but there to help, but you are in controlyou are in control

A Few Things to Consider…A Few Things to Consider…

Development tends to follow Development tends to follow new transportationnew transportation

Employers and Homeowners Employers and Homeowners simply want to minimize the simply want to minimize the time it takes to get aroundtime it takes to get around

Places can grow on vacant Places can grow on vacant land…land…

New places can also grow on New places can also grow on underutilized landunderutilized land

People that can walk to transit are

5 times more likely to ride

Employment and housing near Employment and housing near transit stations tends to transit stations tends to

increase ridershipincrease ridership

The closer we put homes to The closer we put homes to destinations, the shorter trips destinations, the shorter trips

will tend to bewill tend to be

Connect the Streets?Connect the Streets?

Same Total Lanes

More Capacity

Case Study: Merced, CACase Study: Merced, CA

Merced Alternative’s Merced Alternative’s advantages:advantages:

Fewer Vehicle Trips: Fewer Vehicle Trips: 20% lower20% lower

Shorter Driving Distances: Shorter Driving Distances: 30% lower30% lower

Fewer busy streets : Fewer busy streets : 30% fewer streets above 30,000 30% fewer streets above 30,000

average daily tripsaverage daily trips

Digital comparison of Digital comparison of resultsresults

What transportation What transportation ideas did people ideas did people explore and where?explore and where?

What types of new What types of new places were the places were the most popular?most popular?

What unusual and What unusual and interesting ideas interesting ideas emerged?emerged?

After The Workshops After The Workshops ….….

February SummitFebruary Summit

How did hundreds of How did hundreds of people’s ideas become people’s ideas become transportation and transportation and development scenarios?development scenarios?

How did the scenarios How did the scenarios perform? What would they perform? What would they mean for our quality of life?mean for our quality of life?

Use interactive keypad Use interactive keypad polling to anonymously polling to anonymously vote on which ideas in the vote on which ideas in the scenarios you likescenarios you like