long term conditions – development of the current agenda and role of data analysis dr. peter...

Long Term Long Term Conditions – Conditions –

development of the development of the current agenda and current agenda and role of data analysisrole of data analysis

Dr. Peter CansfieldEast Midlands Public Health Observatory

National Information

60% of adults have a long term or chronic health problem

Up to 80% of GP consultations are with people with a long term condition (LTC)

Mostly minor conditions, but 5% of patients with LTC account

for 42% of hospital bed days

% of Inpatients

Cu

mu

lati

ve %

of

inp

atie

nt

day

s

50% of inpatients account for 10% of all inpatient days

5% of inpatients account for 42% of all inpatient days

10% of inpatients account for 55% of all inpatient days

What are LTCs?

N.B. Pyramid is not Egyptian

New care models

Evercare Kaiser permente Unique Care / Castlefield Eldercare Etc… community matrons /

managers, personalised care management

Drivers and Targets

Drivers– Improved care– Financial (PBR and unplanned admissions)

Targets– Community matrons – centrally determined

number for each health community– Reduce emergency admissions by 5% by

2008

How can we predict which patients are ‘frequent

fliers’? United Health Care

– Jean Kings Fund –

Howard Dr. Foster – Steve Local (e.g. Risk

factor – Eldercare) – Hanna

Questions Which risk assessment tool and why? What is the strength of evidence to

support one method over another? Models and the data required – a

pragmatic trade-off? Data access: How internal restrictions

on data overcome? Other practical difficulties? Value: should we take a view?