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2/3/2015 1
Low Carbon Economic Development
Strategy (LCEDS) for
Nepal – Tools and Approach
Prem Kumar Pokhrel Alternative Energy Promotion Center
2/3/2015 2 2/3/2015 2
Phase 1: Data Collection and Analysis (Base
line data and BAU Scenario)
Data collected, discussed and validated through
TWG/TC meetings, Regional Stakeholder consultation &
sectoral ministries.
Followed Revised 1996/2006 Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories; IPCC Good Practice
Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories; Guidelines for the
preparation of national communications from Parties not
included in annex I to the Convention.
2/3/2015 3
GHG estimation
2/3/2015 3
Sector Tier applied Remarks
Energy T1
Industry T1 and T3 Only for selected industries Emission factors based on the technology are adopted
Transport T3 Bottom –up approach
Agriculture T1
Forestry T1 and T2
Building and waste T1 and T3
2/3/2015 4 2/3/2015 4
• Phase 2: Modeling, Analysis and prepare
final draft of the strategy : Final Draft
Received
Model Used: MARKAL for energy related sectors & EX-
ACT for AFOLU (non-energy).
With feedback from TWG/TC meetings, Experts,
Regional Stakeholder consultation and sectoral
ministries.
2/3/2015 5
ANSWER
MARKAL
Useful Energy Demand
•Agricultural Sector •Commercial Sector •Industrial Sector •Residential Sector •Transport Sector
Base Year 2010
Development policies
Social Data
Economic Data
Technological Data M
AED
Different Energy Scenarios till 2030 Constraints
Process Technologies
Conversion Technologies
End-use demand technologies
Energy Resources
Methodology: MARKAL modeling framework
2/3/2015 7
Assumptions (Basis for different factors)
2/3/2015 7
• ADS 2013
• SE4ALL initiatives
• Smokeless kitchen initiatives
• Graduation from LDC by 2022
• FRA
•Nepal Land Use Policy (2012)
• MDG (NPC 2013)
• Three years plan
•Other sectoral policies and strategies
2/3/2015 8
-500
0
500
1000
Low Medium High
Carbon balance in Million tCO2 equivalent
Without
With
Balance
Agriculture sector with/without intervention
2/3/2015 10
Policy options – Energy Example
2/3/2015 10
Energy Related
Replacement of traditional and fossil fuels by clean
energy alternatives – electricity, LPG and ICS.
Replacement of incandescent bulbs by CFL and
LED.
Promotion of electrification in all 5 sectors for
lighting, heating and other purposes.
Intervention of more efficient process technologies
in industries
Intervention of mass transportation system
Introduction of new electric and bio-fuel
transportation technologies
2/3/2015 11
BAU: Business As Usual
LESO: Low Emission Strategic Options
HIG: High Economic Growth
LEHI: Low Emission High economic Growth
Energy related Sector: example
2/3/2015 13
Total Technology Cost (million NRs)
2015 2020 2025 2030
BAU 35,299 26,418 42,247 30,838
LESO 52,849 55,550 86,174 92,732
HIG 33,460 26,120 56,177 42,829
LEHI 50,961 56,973 116,971 140,384
Feasibility analysis
2/3/2015 15
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Low Carbon Economic Development Strategy for Nepal
2/3/2015 16
Vision
• Upgrade Nepal to Developed Country category through Low Carbon-green economic development
Mission
• Livelihood enhancement of people generating employment by attaining high and sustainable economic growth through the development of climate smart energy and technologies
2/3/2015 17
Goals
• Reduction in fossil fuel dependencies- Energy efficiency, renewable energy and hydropower development • Promotion & Development of low carbon emitting technology and climate resilient infrastructure • Poverty reduction – Attracting investment for low carbon economic development and hence increasing GDP/GNP
2/3/2015 18
Objective
Self dependant in clean energy by 2022 and attain high economic growth rate through green technology.
Strategy
• Focus on Agriculture, Forest and Hydropower as a base for economic development. • Hydropower as major energy resources • Solar and wind energy promotion particularly in government and public building in 5 years
2/3/2015 19
Strategy……. • Focus on Agriculture, Forest and Hydropower as a base for economic development. • Hydropower as major energy resources • Solar and wind energy promotion particularly in government and public building in 5 years • integrate in curriculum at different education level on clean and low carbon economic development • promote environment friendly transport operated by clean energy • replace the technology with energy efficient technology gradually
2/3/2015 20
Strategy…… • Conservation and development of indigenous technology that consumes less energy. • Climate smart agriculture. • Capacity development of marginalized/deprived/vulnerable community • Attract foreign investment and from private sector •Maximize the benefit from different international treaty on Climate Change • Polluters pay principle. • follow EFLG and other sectoral policy indicators
2/3/2015 21
Sectoral Strategies • Energy sector • Agriculture and Livestock • Forest sector • Industry Sector • Building and Waste • Commercial Sector •Transport Sector • GESI
2/3/2015 22
Thank You
For detail: www.moste.gov.np www.nccsp.gov.np www.aepc.gov.np
E-mail: lcedsfeedback@gmail.com/ prem.pokhrel@aepc.gov.np
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