lsjr tmdl bmap 2013 annual progress report: trends in nutrients and wq targets john hendrickson,...

LSJR TMDL BMAP 2013 Annual Progress

Report:Trends in Nutrients

and WQ Targets

John Hendrickson, SJRWMD

Wayne Magley, Ph.D., FDEP

Sharon Piltz, FDEP

Marine Reach

Freshwater Reach

Talleyrand

WBID 2213L

WBID 2213K

Long-Term River Monitoring

Dissolved Oxygen Monitoring Stations

USGS Dames Pt.

FDEP

LSJR Mainstem BMAP Monitoring

Approach & Objectives

Racy Pt.

Dancy Pt.

Whetstone Pt.

• Combine interagency & multi-platform data to describe river condition, processes

• Assess river water quality trends, processes, and targets achievement

• Maintain ongoing data acquisition for future WQ model applications and adaptive management

The Q Half of Load, 2013

Black Creek Flooding - Photo from Florida Times Union - Jacksonville.com

LSJR 2013 Bloom

Shands Pier Ramp 10/1/2013 SE Doctor’s Lake, 10/1/2013

Hibernia Pt. 8/12/13

Hibernia Pt.

Mandarin Pt.

Piney Pt.

Marine

Interface

4/28

Marine Interface 5/20

LSJR Upstream and Freshwater Reach Nutrient Trends 1995 - 2013

TN Low Flow Med. Flow High FlowOct-Mar 0.059 <0.001 <0.001Apr-Sep <0.001 <0.001 0.017

TP Low Flow Med. Flow High FlowOct-Mar 0.796 0.405 0.302Apr-Sep 0.026 0.053 0.378

2013 Mean = 1.15 mg/L

2013 Mean = 0.056 mg/L

TN Low Flow Med. Flow High FlowOct-Mar 0.005 0.233 <0.001Apr-Sep <0.001 0.002 0.002

TP Low Flow Med. Flow High FlowOct-Mar 0.085 0.567 0.031Apr-Sep 0.001 0.326 0.965

2013 Mean = 1.18 mg/L

2013 Mean= 0.088 mg/L

Racy Pt (WBID K)

St. Johns River Longitudinal N and P TrendSJRWMD Status and Trends

2013 Report

LSJR TMDL Freshwater Reach Chlorophyll-a 40/40 Target

Compliance

TN Low Flow Med. Flow High FlowOct-Mar 0.01 0.003 0.808Apr-Sep 0.005 0.106 0.957

TP Low Flow Med. Flow High FlowOct-Mar 0.912 0.908 0.969Apr-Sep 0.995 0.834 0.958

Marine Reach Nutrient TrendsAssessed at RM 17 (WBID D)

TN TP N:P

Trends in LSJR Oligohaline

Chlorophyll-a, N and P

*Research suggests that blue-greens thrive under low N:P ratios

Hibernia Pt.

Mandarin Pt.

Piney Pt.

Trends in Marine Reach Dissolved Oxygen

USGS Continuous Monitoring Station at

Dames Point

Dissolved Oxygen Monitoring Stations

USGS Dames Pt.

FDEP

• Since 2008, no exceedences of the marine reach DO criteria• Format of LSJR DO criteria now adopted as State-wide Estuarine criteria

LSJR Marine ReachDissolved Oxygen Target Compliance

LSJR Indicators of Eutrophication Post-TMDLWhat DoTrends Indicate?

• Downward trends in N, P (under low flow) and chlorophyll-a, and increase in D.O., concur with TMDL findings and demonstrate effectiveness of nutrient load reduction in improving WQ

• Divergence in flow condition trends consistent with point source reduction exceeding nonpoint reduction

• Effect of recent meteorological conditions on the proportions of point and NPS load has moved FW worst-case WBID downstream, may be altering the composition of algae blooms