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Economy-wide impacts of energy efficiency in Germany
CAPTURING THE MULTIPLE BENEFITS OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY Roundtable on Macroeconomic Impacts 24th & 25th January 2013, Paris, France
gwsGesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbHInstitute of Economic Structures ResearchHeinrichstr. 30 °D – 49080 Osnabrück, GermanyTel.: + 49 (541) 40933-280 °Fax: + 49 (541) 40933-110Email: lehr @gws-os.com °Internet: www.gws-os.com
Ulrike Lehr, Christian Lutz
Overview
• Background on modeling energy efficiency and
renewable energy
• PANTA RHEI model
• Scenario design and results for energy efficiency
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gws 2013 GWS mbH
• Conclusions and outlook
Background – what the earlier speakers might not have already mentioned
• We know that energy efficiency is extremely important –
and progressing too slow
• Economics, economic modeling and economic thought face
challenges when trying to capture no-regret potentials,
inefficient factor use and thus energy efficiency issues
• Modeling challenges:
• How can we define efficiency potentials and efficiency
measures?
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gws 2013 GWS mbH
measures?
• How are macro-indicators affected?
• How can we capture special value chains for efficiency
technologies?
The following shows how we dealt with these challenges in a case study for Germany
Model PANTA RHEI
Macroeconomic energy and
environmental model
• Based on official statistics (SNA,
time series of IOT)
• Bottom-up (59 sectors)
• Fully interdependent
• Energy balance systematic
• Parameters econometrically
derived from historical time
series, no neoclassical general
equilibrium
• Supply and demand side features
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gws 2013 GWS mbH
• Supply and demand side features
• Open for expert (bottom-up
model) information
Suitable for simulation of direct and
indirect effects
• Esp. counterbalancing effects
• Results are net after all adaption
processes
Reference:Socio-economic and economic-environmental relations of the past will continue in the future
Recent and ongoing applications
PANTA RHEI
� Energy scenarios for the German energy concept (BMWi,
2010)
� Employment impacts of renewable energy in Germany
(BMU, since 2004)
� Energy reference scenario for Germany (BMWi, 2013)
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gws 2013 GWS mbH
Economic part of the model (INFORGE)
� Medium-term labour market forcasts (Federal Labor
Agency, 2010-2014)
� Industry forecasts to support ratings of a large banking
group (since 2007)
� Socio-economic reporting (BMBF, 2009-2012)
PHANTA RHEI – Sectoral focus
� 59 Economic sectors (WZ03):
� employment, value added,
production, imports, exports
� Energy consumption sectors
(following EB systematic):
� Households, 15 industries,
transport, commerce and
service
� Special vector can be added to
2011 2014 2016 2018 2020
Value added; employment; production, import, export
Sector 1
Absolute values or difference to referenceSector 2
Sector 3
≈
Sector n-1Absolute values or difference to reference
Sector n
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� Special vector can be added to
I/O
� Done for RE
� Survey based
� Third update since 2006
� 13 sectors production of 13
technologies
0 2 4 6 8
A n t e i l a n B P W i n %
1 E r z e u g n i s s e d e r L a n d w i r t s c h a f t u n d J a g d2 F o r s t w i r t s c h a f t l i c h e E r z e u g n i s s e u n d D L3 F i s c h e u n d F i s c h e r e i e r z e u g n i s s e4 K o h l e u n d T o r f5 E r d ö l , E r d g a s , D L f ü r E r d ö l - , E r d g a s g e w i n n u n g6 U r a n - u n d T h o r i u m e r z e7 E r z e 8 S t e i n e u n d E r d e n , s o n s t i g e B e r g b a u e r z e u g n i s s e 9 N a h r u n g s - u n d F u t t e r m i t t e l1 0 G e t r ä n k e1 1 T a b a k e r z e u g n i s s e1 2 T e x t i l i e n1 3 B e k l e i d u n g1 4 L e d e r u n d L e d e r w a r e n1 5 H o l z ; H o l z - , K o r k - , F l e c h t w a r e n ( o h n e M ö b e l )1 6 H o l z s t o f f , Z e l l s t o f f , P a p i e r , K a r t o n u n d P a p p e1 7 P a p i e r - , K a r t o n - u n d P a p p e w a r e n1 8 V e r l a g s e r z e u g n i s s e1 9 D r u c k e r z e u g n i s s e , b e s p i e l t e T o n - , B i l d - u n d D a t e n t r ä g e r2 0 K o k e r e i e r z e u g n i s s e , M i n e r a l ö l e r z e u g n i s s e , S p a l t - u n d B r u t s t o f f e2 1 P h a r m a z e u t i s c h e E r z e u g n i s s e2 2 C h e m i s c h e E r z e u g n i s s e ( o . p h a r m a z e u t i s c h e E r z e u g n i s s e )2 3 G u m m i w a r e n2 4 K u n s t s t o f f w a r e n2 5 G l a s u n d G l a s w a r e n2 6 K e r a m i k , b e a r b e i t e t e S t e i n e u n d E r d e n2 7 R o h e i s e n , S t a h l , R o h r e u n d H a l b z e u g d a r a u s2 8 N E - M e t a l l e u n d H a l b z e u g d a r a u s2 9 G i e ß e r e i e r z e u g n i s s e3 0 M e t a l l e r z e u g n i s s e3 1 M a s c h i n e n3 2 B ü r o m a s c h i n e n , D a t e n v e r a r b e i t u n g s g e r ä t e u . - e i n r i c h t u n g e n3 3 G e r ä t e d e r E l e k t r i z i t ä t s e r z e u g u n g , - v e r t e i l u n g u . ä .3 4 N a c h r t e c h n . , R u n d f . - u n d F e r n s e h g e r ä t e , e l e k t r o n . B a u e l e m e n t e3 5 M e d i z i n - , m e s s - , r e g e l u n g s t e c h n . , o p t i s c h e E r z e u g n i s s e ; U h r e n3 6 K r a f t w a g e n u n d K r a f t w a g e n t e i l e3 7 S o n s t i g e F a h r z e u g e ( W a s s e r - , S c h i e n e n - , L u f t f a h r z e u g e u . a . )3 8 M ö b e l , S c h m u c k , M u s i k i n s t r u m e n t e , S p o r t g e r ä t e , S p i e l w a r e n u . ä .3 9 S e k u n d ä r r o h s t o f f e4 0 E l e k t r i z i t ä t , F e r n w ä r m e , D L d e r E l e k t r i z i t ä t s - u . F e r n w ä r m e v e r s .4 1 G a s e , D L d e r G a s v e r s o r g u n g4 2 W a s s e r u n d D L d e r W a s s e r v e r s o r g u n g4 3 V o r b . B a u s t e l l e n a r b e i t e n , H o c h - u . T i e f b a u a r b e i t e n4 4 B a u i n s t a l l a t i o n s - u n d s o n s t i g e B a u a r b e i t e n4 5 H a n d e l s l e i s t . m i t K f z ; R e p . a n K f z ; T a n k l e i s t u n g e n4 6 H a n d e l s v e r m i t t l u n g s - u n d G r o ß h a n d e l s l e i s t u n g e n4 7 E i n z e l h a n d e l s l e i s t u n g e n ; R e p a r a t u r a n G e b r a u c h s g ü t e r n4 8 B e h e r b e r g u n g s - u n d G a s t s t ä t t e n - D L4 9 E i s e n b a h n - D L5 0 S o n s t . L a n d v . l e i s t u n g e n , T r a n s p o r t l . i n R o h r f e r n l e i t u n g e n5 1 S c h i f f f a h r t s l e i s t u n g e n5 2 L u f t f a h r t l e i s t u n g e n5 3 D L b e z ü g l i c h H i l f s - u . N e b e n t ä t i g k e i t e n f ü r d e n V e r k e h r5 4 N a c h r i c h t e n ü b e r m i t t l u n g s - D L5 5 D L d e r K r e d i t i n s t i t u t e5 6 D L d e r V e r s i c h e r u n g e n ( o h n e S o z i a l v e r s i c h e r u n g )5 7 D L d e s K r e d i t - u n d V e r s i c h e r u n g s h i l f s g e w e r b e s5 8 D L d e s G r u n d s t ü c k s - u n d W o h n u n g s w e s e n s5 9 D L d e r V e r m i e t u n g b e w e g l i c h e r S a c h e n ( o . P e r s o n a l )6 0 D L d e r D a t e n v e r a r b e i t u n g u n d v o n D a t e n b a n k e n6 1 F o r s c h u n g s - u n d E n t w i c k l u n g s l e i s t u n g e n6 2 U n t e r n e h m e n s b e z o g e n e D L6 3 D L d e r ö f f e n t l i c h e n V e r w a l t u n g , V e r t e i d i g u n g6 4 D L d e r S o z i a l v e r s i c h e r u n g6 5 E r z i e h u n g s - u n d U n t e r r i c h t s - D L6 6 D L d e s G e s u n d h e i t s - , V e t e r i n ä r - u n d S o z i a l w e s e n s6 7 A b w a s s e r - , A b f a l l b e s e i t i g u n g s - u . s o n s t . E n t s o r g u n g s l e i s t u n g e n6 8 D L v o n I n t e r e s s e n v e r t r e t u n g e n , K i r c h e n u . ä .6 9 K u l t u r - , S p o r t - u n d U n t e r h a l t u n g s - D L7 0 S o n s t i g e D L 7 1 D L p r i v a t e r H a u s h a l t e
Q u e l l e : S c h ä t z u n g e n d e s D I W B e r l i n . D IW B e r l i n
E r n e u e r b a r e E n e r g i e n
Implementation of efficiency measures
� Energy part (other institutes: Ifeu, Prognos, FhG-ISI):
• Bottom-up models for energy demand (see next slide)
• Specification of 43 (clusters of) measures
• Differences in energy volumes and prices and related
cost/investment as primary impulses
� Translation of primary impulses into the macro model
• Find the right elements in the IO data (59 industries) and
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Find the right elements in the IO data (59 industries) and
the energy balance (30 energy carriers, 68 rows)
• Consistent linkage of IO and EB
CPA 1).. 01 02 05 10 11 12 13 14 15.1 - 15.8 15.9 16 17Lfd.Nr. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gütergruppen (Zeile 1 bis 71):1 01 Erzeugnisse der Landwirtschaft und Jagd........................................................... 7 627 190 - 11 - - - - 31 657 614 375 188 2 02 Forstwirtschaftliche Erzeugnisse und DL........................................................... 83 885 - 6 16 - - 21 - - - - 3 05 Fische und Fischereierzeugnisse........................................................................... - - 52 - - - - - 248 - - - 4 10 Kohle und Torf............................................................................................................... 35 - - 570 - - - 21 39 5 2 14 5 11 Erdöl, Erdgas, DL für Erdö l-, Erdgasgewinnung................................................ 53 - - - 420 - - 35 450 32 1 71 6 12 Uran- und Thoriumerze............................................................................................... - - - - - - - - - - - - 7 13 Erze .................................................................................................................................... - - - - - - - - - - - - 8 14 Steine und Erden, so nstige Bergbauerzeugnisse ........................................... 343 4 1 5 - - - 1 512 195 - - - 9 15.1 - 15.8 Nahrungs- und Futtermittel....................................................................................... 4 448 - - - - - - - 29 310 1 259 1 22
10 15.9 Getränke........................................................................................................................... 1 - - - - - - - 178 1 556 - - 11 16 Tabakerzeugnisse........................................................................................................ - - - - - - - - - - 38 - 12 17 Textilien............................................................................................................................. 25 2 50 - - - - - 24 3 1 3 213 13 18 Bekleidung....................................................................................................................... 5 8 - 3 - - - 1 9 1 - 1 14 19 Leder und Lederwaren................................................................................................. 21 1 - 5 1 - - 7 - - - 2 15 20 Holz; Ho lz-, Ko rk-, Flechtwaren (ohne M öbel).................................................. 100 7 1 28 1 - - 21 139 77 17 12 16 21.1 Holzstoff, Zellstoff, Papier, Karton und Pappe................................................ 17 1 - 5 - - - 20 157 23 14 40 17 21.2 Papier-, Karto n- und Pappewaren.......................................................................... 19 3 - 7 9 - - 115 1 985 270 139 157 18 22.1 Verlagserzeugnisse...................................................................................................... 10 5 - 3 - - - 5 55 14 9 8 19 22.2 - 22.3 Druckerzeugnisse, bespielte To n-, B ild- und Datenträger............................ 31 6 1 12 1 - - 17 160 51 6 75 20 23 Kokereierzeugnisse, M ineralö lerzeugnisse, Spalt- und Brutstoffe.......... 1 173 53 9 27 - - - 133 567 125 6 50 21 24.4 Pharmazeutische Erzeugnisse................................................................................ 480 - - - - - - - 23 19 - - 22 24 (ohne 24.4) Chemische Erzeugnisse (ohne pharmazeutische Erzeugnisse)................ 2 768 40 2 75 7 - - 72 1 284 334 18 2 538 23 25.1 Gummiwaren................................................................................................................... 126 5 - 64 - - - 11 71 13 1 13 24 25.2 Kunststoffwaren............................................................................................................ 102 6 - 36 1 - - 5 1 493 587 17 114 25 26.1 Glas und Glaswaren..................................................................................................... 181 - - 24 - - - 2 374 348 - - 26 26.2 - 26.8 Keramik, bearbeitete Steine und Erden................................................................ 240 23 - 36 - - - 15 - - - 182 27 27.1. - 27.3 Roheisen, Stahl, Rohre und Halbzeug daraus................................................... 36 4 - 173 79 - - 49 59 6 - - 28 27.4 NE-M etalle und Halbzeug daraus........................................................................... 4 - - 23 1 - - 3 31 4 2 - 29 27.5 Gießereierzeugnisse.................................................................................................... 45 - - 13 - - - 2 - 5 - - 30 28 M etallerzeugnisse........................................................................................................ 386 43 5 464 95 - - 108 751 300 2 39 31 29 M aschinen....................................................................................................................... 1 017 87 2 868 148 - - 160 953 144 21 238 32 30 Büromaschinen, Datenverarbeitungsgeräte und -einrichtungen............... 4 - - 2 1 - - 10 55 16 1 5 33 31 Geräte der Elektrizitätserzeugung, -verteilung u.Ä........................................... 54 7 - 36 21 - - 18 50 6 2 12 34 32 Nachrtechn., Rundf.- und Fernsehgeräte, elektron. Bauelemente............ - - - - - - - - - - - - 35 33 M edizin-, mess-, regelungstechn., optische Erzeugnisse; Uhren............... 4 - - - 1 - - 12 71 17 - 1 36 34 Kraftwagen und Kraftwagenteile.............................................................................. 207 4 - 26 - - - 19 69 26 - - 37 35 Sonstige Fahrzeuge (Wasser-, Schienen-, Luftfahrzeuge u.a.)................... - - - - - - - - - - - - 38 36 M öbel, Schmuck, M usikinstrumente, Sportgeräte, Spielwaren u.Ä......... 1 - - - - - - 2 1 1 - 1 39 37 Sekundärro hstoffe....................................................................................................... - - - - - - - - - - - 19 40 40.1, 40.3 Elektrizität, Fernwärme, DL der Elektrizitäts- u. Fernwärmeversorgung. 625 5 5 425 52 - - 345 1 743 254 29 461 41 40.2 Gase, DL der Gasversorgung.................................................................................. 57 - - 17 - - - 36 436 111 5 85 42 41 Wasser und DL der Wasserversorgung............................................................... 327 1 1 31 - - - 35 343 112 4 34 43 45.1 - 45.2 Vorb. Baustellenarbeiten, Hoch- und Tiefbauarbeiten................................... 113 18 2 65 6 - - 27 127 38 1 22 44 45.3 - 45.5 Bauinstallatio ns- und sonstige Bauarbeiten..................................................... 124 14 3 76 1 - - 14 200 63 4 38 45 50 Handelsleist. mit Kfz; Rep. an Kfz; Tankleistungen.......................................... 431 17 2 7 1 - - 55 246 41 3 15 46 51 Handelsvermittlungs- und Großhandelsleistungen........................................ 2 473 111 21 223 35 - - 118 8 041 676 52 509 47 52 Einzelhandelsleistungen; Reparatur an Gebrauchsgütern............................ 93 9 5 30 - - - 12 1 481 85 6 95 48 55 Beherbergungs- und Gaststätten-DL................................................................... 2 2 1 14 5 - - 1 28 6 1 9 49 60.1 Eisenbahn-DL................................................................................................................. 2 4 - 1 92 - - 51 1 1 - 1
1.1 Input-Output-Tabelle 2007 zu Herstellungspreis en Inländische Produktion und Importe Mill. EUR
Erzg. v.Pro dukten
derLand-
wirtschaftund Jagd
Lfd.Nr.
CPA 1)
Gew. v.Uran-und
Thorium-erzen
Input der Pro duktionsbereiche2)
Erzg. v.Produkten
derFischerei
undFischzucht
Gew. v.KohleundTo rf
Input der Produktionsbereiche2)
H.v.Nahrungs-
undFutter-mitteln
H.v.Tabak-waren
Erzg. v.Pro-
duktender
Forst-wirtschaft
Gew. v.Erdö l,
Erdgas,Erbring.diesbez.
DL
H.v.Getränken
Gew. v.Erzen
H.v.Textilien
Gew. v.Steinen und
Erden,sonstigen
Bergbauer-zeugn.
Verwendung
Aufko mmen
Energiebilanz der Bundesrepublik Zeile Steinkohlen Braunkohlen Mineralöle Deutschland 2008T Joule
Kohle Briketts Koks Andere Kohle Briketts Andere Hart- Erdöl Otto-Stein- Braun- braun- (roh) kraft
kohlen- kohlen- kohle stoffeprodukte produkte
Gewinnung im Inland 1 521 002 - - - 1 576 414 - - - 131 119 -Einfuhr 2 1 200 499 785 124 570 38 436 - 1 172 1 114 459 4 515 225 70 829Bestandsentnahmen 3 - - - - - 352 234 - - 18 790Energieaufkommen im Inland 4 1 721 502 785 124 570 38 436 1 576 414 1 524 1 348 459 4 646 344 89 619Ausfuhr 5 15 603 - 4 785 45 985 147 6 887 17 457 - 5 797 250 437Hochseebunkerungen 6 - - - - - - - - - -Bestandsaufstockungen 7 17 438 - 1 318 - 909 - - - 28 828 -PRIMÄRENERGIEVERBRAUCH IM INLAND 8 1 688 461 785 118 468 - 7 549 1 575 359 - 5 363 - 16 109 459 4 611 719 - 160 818Kokereien 9 300 466 - - - 5 886 - - - - -Stein- und Braunkohlenbrikettfabriken 10 - - - - 118 861 - - - - -Wärmekraftwerke der allg. Versorgung 11 997 295 - - - 1 378 633 117 10 497 33 - -Industriewärmekraftwerke (nur für Strom) 12 85 827 - - - 20 867 2 156 3 938 - - -Kernkraftwerke 13 - - - - - - - - - -Wasser-, Windkraft-, Photovoltaik- u.a. Anlagen 14 - - - - - - - - - -Heizkraftwerke der allg. Versorgung 15 106 195 - - - 34 164 371 3 982 410 - -Fernheizwerke 16 19 575 - 229 - 2 299 20 1 270 16 - -Hochöfen 17 - - 171 405 - - - - - - -Raffinerien 18 - - - - - - - - 4 611 719 117 859Sonstige Energieerzeuger 19 - - - 7 755 - - - - - -Umwandlungseinsatz insgesamt 20 1 509 357 - 171 634 7 755 1 560 710 2 664 19 687 459 4 611 719 117 859Kokereien 21 - - 236 248 9 386 - - 5 308 - - -Stein- und Braunkohlenbrikettfabriken 22 - - - - - 32 005 89 449 - - -Wärmekraftwerke der allg. Versorgung 23 - - - - - - - - - -Industriewärmekraftwerke (nur für Strom) 24 - - - - - - - - - -Kernkraftwerke 25 - - - - - - - - - -Wasser-, Windkraft-, Photovoltaik- u.a. Anlagen 26 - - - - - - - - - -Heizkraftwerke der allg. Versorgung 27 - - - - - - - - - -Fernheizwerke 28 - - - - - - - - - -Hochöfen 29 - - - - - - - - - -Raffinerien 30 - - - - - - - - - 1 000 552Sonstige Energieerzeuger 31 - - - 7 106 - - - - - 147 166Umwandlungsausstoß insgesamt 32 - - 236 248 16 492 - 32 005 94 757 - - 1 147 718Kokereien 33 - - - - - - - - - -Steinkohlenzechen, -brikettfabriken 34 30 - - - - - - - - -Braunkohlengruben, -brikettfabriken 35 - - - - 8 979 147 414 - - -Kraftwerke 36 - - - - - - - - - -Erdöl- und Erdgasgewinnung 37 - - - - - - - - - -Raffinerien 38 - - - - - - - - - -
13 bill. € Savings compared to reference by 2020 PJ
Sum (% of final energy consumption in the sector) 212 (8.1%)
Motors 101
The Efficiency scenario - example: industry
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101
Optimal pneumatic systems 15
Optimal pump systems 17
Optimal vent systems 14
Optimal cooling systems 3
Optimal other systems 45
Efficient lighting 13
Efficient vapor 24
Efficient drying 29
Efficient industrial ovens 40
Efficient caloric value heat (natural gas) 5
Additional potential from specific technologies 1)ca. 150
1) Fraunhofer ISI (2001) and Prognos (2007); Source: ifeu/ISI/Prognos/GWS 2009
Technological Potential
• Potential for energy saving with market best products
Economic (no-regret potential)
• Potential for energy saving with products with payback
periods within the lifespan of the product
• Much longer payback periods compared to usual
calculations in companies
Limits and boundaries (1/2)
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calculations in companies
Technological potential
Payback period 4 -8 years
No-regret
Limits and boundaries (2/2)
� Scenario analysis: comparison of an efficiency scenario
with reference
� “Ambitious Efficiency” scenario
• No–regret measures
• Cost-effective over the lifetime of equipment
• Additional investment (no crowding out)
• Based on detailed bottom-up studies
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� depreciation, annual allowances and savings reductions
to finance the investment fully included
� Energy savings fully accounted for in the model
Investment until 2030 in
billion Euro
Total 301
Private households 120
Tertiary sector 54
Industry 8
Transport 120
Ifeu et al. (2011, p. 22).
Economic impacts
Absolute values Percentage differenceEfficiency- Ref 2011 2014 2016 2018 2020 2011 2014 2016 2018 2020
GDP components
GDP 6,4 8,8 12,8 15,2 17,8 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7
Private consumption 2,0 4,7 6,6 8,5 10,6 0,2 0,4 0,5 0,7 0,8
Gov't consumption 0,1 -0,1 0,0 -0,1 -0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Investment 3,6 3,6 4,2 4,7 5,7 1,4 1,3 1,5 1,7 1,9
Buildings 3,0 3,1 5,1 5,2 5,1 1,4 1,4 2,4 2,5 2,5
Exports 0,1 0,3 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Imports 2,4 2,7 3,3 3,5 3,9 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3
Difference in bil. Euro
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Imports 2,4 2,7 3,3 3,5 3,9 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3
Prices
Private consumption -0,04 -0,10 -0,14 -0,18 -0,22 -0,04 -0,08 -0,12 -0,15 -0,18
Production -0,05 -0,06 -0,07 -0,07 -0,07 -0,05 -0,05 -0,06 -0,06 -0,06
Imports -0,07 -0,16 -0,23 -0,30 -0,39 -0,07 -0,16 -0,22 -0,29 -0,36
Labor market
Employment 67 79 110 120 128 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3
Difference in percentage points
Absolute difference
Macroeconomic results (ambitious efficiency against
reference)
� Higher GDP and more jobs (+127.000 in 2030)
• Additional investment yields additional production and
therefore additional employment,
• Energy is replaced by capital,
• Imports (e.g. crude oil, gas) are replaced by domestic value
added,
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added,
• Construction, trade and services are more labor intensive
than the energy industry (industry structure matters),
• Energy efficiency improves economic productivity and thus
competitiveness on fast growing markets,
• Rebound effects are small
2010 2015 2020 Rebound
FEC 108 418 693
Private households [PJ] 25 115 219 13%
Tertiary sector [PJ] 8 32 59 13%
Industry [PJ] 19 123 197 11%
Transport [PJ] 57 148 219 27%
Energy savings, emissions and rebound
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Transport [PJ] 57 148 219 27%
TPES [PJ] 162 629 1.027
Electricity production [PJ] 39 151 245
CO2-Emissions [Mio. t] 13,9 49,8 76,6
Oil [TJ] 67 189 287
Natural gas [TJ] 26 165 321
Import savings [Bill. €] 0,8 3,2 6,2
Source: Own Calcuations by GWSmbH
4. Conclusions
Implementation of “no-regret” energy efficiency measures
will yield a double dividend of less emissions / energy use and
more jobs:
• Positive macroeconomic net impacts
• Additional potential for exports
• How to overcome barriers for efficiency improvement?
Important for results:
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Important for results:
• Interdependent modeling of economy and energy,
based on observed behavior
• Specification of efficiency measures (based on expert
judgment or bottom-up model)
• Existence of no-regret options contradicts assumptions of
microeconomic optimization and (ideal) general equilibrium
Thank you for your attention!
Contact:Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS) mbHInstitute of Economic Structures ResearchHeinrichstrasse 3049080 Osnabrück
gws
49080 OsnabrückGermany
Dr. Ulrike LehrTel. +49 541 40933 280lehr@gws-os.com
References
� More on PANTA RHEI:http://www.gws-
os.com/discussionpapers/documentation/PantaRhei_19thInforumConferencePublication.pdf
� More on the development / extension of I/O vector:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512003928
� More on efficiency:
18
gws 2013 GWS mbH
More on efficiency:http://www.gws-os.com/discussionpapers/gws-paper11-2.pdf
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