maneuvering in time

Maneuvering in Time

It may be said that in the future I may lose a battle, but I shall never lose a minute.

~Napoleon3

28

Strategy is the science of making use of space and time. I am more jealous of the latter than the former. We can always recover lost ground, but never lost time.

~Field Marshal August Grief Gneisenau

27

Admiral Horatio Nelson…whose mind never rested, who calculated the relative positions of ships and shorelines as a master chess player does pieces and squares, who consumed information of every sort with the compulsion of an addict, who sought decision in battle with the relentlessness of a great financier poised to obliterate his commercial competitors.

Intelligence in War John Keegan

26

Four Dimensional RealityTactical Operations always unfold in at least four dimensions

Space (Length, Width & Height)♦ Maneuver Elements are Physical

Personnel, Vehicles & Supplies

Time♦ Maneuver Elements are Intangible

Actions, Events, Circumstances & Opportunities

Three Major Factors for Maneuvering in Time♦ Density, Initiative and Tempo

25

All Planning Attempts to Alter the FutureConsequently, All Planning is Future OrientedThe Future is Plural!

Tactics or Timing24

Tactical Operations are Always Time Sensitive

Some are Time Competitive

Opportunities are always linked with Time

Initiative is linked with Time

Tempo is a measurement of Speed

When is as Important as How!23

• Maneuver in Space is measured in Distance♦ Early Identification and Control of Key Terrain is Critical

• Maneuver in Time is measured in Speed♦ Ability to Recognize and Exploit Opportunities is Critical♦ Opportunities are Elusive, Sporadic and Fleeting

Four Dimensional Maneuver22

Density• Density in Space refers to the Numbers of Personnel,

Vehicles, and so forth

• Density in Time refers to the Quantity of Activities per Unit of Time

• Congestion occurs in Time as well as Space♦ OBE Concept

• OBE Countermeasures♦ “Clearing the Decks” by Removing Distractions♦ Demanding Standard Formats♦ Insisting on Recommendations from Trusted Subordinates♦ Delaying Nonessential Decisions

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What Difference Does it Make Who Goes First?

Initiative• Initiative means the Freedom of Action or

the Ability to “Carry Through”

• This Corresponds to Power

• Implied Objective of every tactical operation is to gain and maintain the initiative

16

• Tempo - the Speed or Rhythm of Activity

• Like Initiative, Tempo Provides Freedom of Action

• Provides Opportunities through Surprise

• Tempo is Relative, NOT Fast, only Faster

Tempo20

AsymmetricStrategy

19

18

“fight the fight that fits one’s weapons, and make [asymmetric] weapons to fit the fight”

Unrestricted WarfareQiao Liang & WangXiangsui

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“there are no rules, nothing is forbidden.”

16 Unrestricted WarfareQiao Liang & WangXiangsui

MIGvs. the F-8612

Machines don't fight wars

Terrain doesn't fight wars

Humans fight wars

You must get into the mind of humans

That's where the battles are won

Col. John (Jack) Boyd

15

Boyd’s Cycle• Creation of Col. John Boyd

USAF (Ret.)

• Just as Often Called the “OODA Loop”

• It is Descriptive, Rather than Prescriptive in Nature

• It is Dynamic and Repetitive!

11

Boyd’s Cycle OBSERVATION

• Becoming Aware of the Physical Surroundings, Lighting Conditions, Weather, Terrain, the Adversary, Ourselves

• The First Step in Separating the Relevant from the Volume

10

Boyd’s Cycle ORIENTATION

• Situation is too Chaotic and Fluid to Process Information as Fast as We Can Observe It

• Requires a “Freeze-Frame” Concept to Provide a Perspective

• Orientation Provides the Foundation for Understanding

9

OBSERVE DECIDE ACT

OBSERVE

ORIENTORIENT

CULTURALTRADITIONS

NEWINFORMATION

TRAINING andEXPERIENCE

GENETICHERITAGE

ANALYSESAND

SYNTHESIS

8

Boyd’s Cycle DECISION

• Takes into Account All Factors Present at the time of our Orientation

• Conclusions are Drawn Based Upon our Understanding

• Decisions Must be Made to Influence the Outcome

7

Boyd’s Cycle ACTION

• Actions Without Decisions are Reckless and Decisions without Actions are Pointless

• Implementation of the Decision

• Because Actions will Change the Situation, the Cycle Begins Again

6

A Better Way to Think of OODA “Loop” Speed

Observe Decide Act

Action(Test)

ImplicitGuidance

& Control

ImplicitGuidance

& Control

Observations

UnfoldingCircumstances

OutsideInformation

FeedForward

Orient

5

Paradigm

We observe it

We understand it

We react to it more quickly than the competition

Fast Cycle Conventional

• Claims Internally: enhance innovation, increase productivity, and improve quality.

• Externally: better anticipate market trends, more quickly respond to competitors’ actions, enhance customer loyalty.

• Leading to: increased market share and improved margins

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Strategy a la BoydA Modern Paradigm of Conflict

If necessary, immediately frustrate opponents’ designs so that we may

Use agility (rapid OODA speed) to:

♦ Confuse their decision processes♦ Damage their morale♦ Open up vulnerabilities♦ Exploit vulnerabilities

Continue with Step 2 until the enemy surrenders or is defeated.

• Probe and test adversary to unmask weakness

• Interweave menace, uncertainty, and mistrust

• Move along paths of least resistance

• Exploit differences, frictions and obsessions (within) the adversary

• Subvert, disorient, disrupt, overload, or seize adversary’s critical connections, centers, and activities

• .

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OODA LOOP

GOAL 1Speed up your cycle from a quickness

perspective

OBSERVE

DECIDEORIENT

ACT

3

OODA LOOP

GOAL 2Disrupt their

process; getting inside their loop

OBSERVE

DECIDEORIENT

ACT

2

“Decision Cycle” OODA Loop4

Questions?