march 14, 2013

The Master Plan is the Water Authority’s roadmap for capital investments through 2035

Previous Master Plan completed in 2003 Includes Programmatic EIR to assess regional

impacts ◦ Climate Action Plan

Used to identify future CIP Budget appropriations

2

January 10- Special Water Planning Meeting Legislative/regulatory requirements associated with climate change Overview of developing a Climate Action Plan Feb 28 - Water Planning Committee Reviewed 2010 Urban Water Management Plan supply and demand assumptions Reviewed key recommendations from 2003 Facilities Master Plan

• Twin Oaks valley WTP

• Carlsbad Desalination

• Raw water capacity enhancements

Provided Preliminary modeling results of system performance under Baseline Scenario (2010 UWMP)

• Sufficient treated and untreated capacity prior to 2025

• Considers only weather related effects on demands and supplies

• Assumes verifiable mix of imported and local supplies implemented per 2010 UWMP

Began discussing stress scenarios and facility portfolios to address future uncertainty

3

Respond to questions/comments from February 28th Committee Meeting • What if the 2010 UWMP doesn’t happen as planned? • Estimating available MWD supplies

• Effects beyond weather • SWP reliability • MWD shortage allocation

• What local supplies are contemplated

4

Continue discussion on system capacity needs, constraints and operation • Seasonal variations in

demand • Baseline System performance • Performance under Stress

Scenarios Constraints, bottlenecks and

potential shortages

5

‣ The Role of Water Authority Storage Enhancing supply

reliability Flexibility in addressing

peak demand

Opportunities for energy production ◦ Aqueduct

hydroelectricity generation ◦ Pumped Storage beyond

Hodges-Olivenhain

6

Demand Forecast

Econometric Model

utilizing SANDAG Regional Growth Forecast

Water Use Efficiency

Target

Retail Compliance with SBX7-7: 20% savings

by 2020

Water Supplies

Water Authority

and member agency

verifiable supplies

Water Reliability

Assessment

Resource mix to meet

demands in normal and dry water

years

Scenario Planning

Process to manage supply

uncertainties associated

with resource mix

7

Assess normal, single dry, and multiple dry water years

Assumptions under dry-year conditions ◦ Local supplies (groundwater, surface water) based on

lowest historic dry-year yield

◦ Single dry-year: Adequate carry-over supplies in storage, no shortages anticipated

◦ Multiple dry-year: MWD allocates water under preferential rights in accordance with MWD Act Unknown how MWD will allocate in the future - reliable

planning assumption 1.8 MAF available (consistent with supplies available during FY

2010 allocation period)

8

No shortages anticipated ◦ Supplies developed as

planned by member agencies, Water Authority, and MWD ◦ Member agencies

achieve SBX7-7 savings target

Local Surface Water

6%

Recycled Water

6%

Seawater Desalination

9%

MWD 30%

IID Transfer 24%

Canal Lining Transfer

10%

Conservation 13%

Groundwater 2%

2020 Water Resources Mix

9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2026 2027 2028

Carryover Storage

MWD Allocation (P.R.)

Member Agency Supplies

Carlsbad Seawater Desalination

Potential Shortage

Supplies developed as planned and SBX7-7 savings achieved

MWD is allocating supplies Drought (1.8 MAF

available)

Potential shortages Handled through

management actions

TAF

10

A decision support planning method to incorporate uncertainty into supply planning assumptions

Develop small but wide-ranging set of future scenarios based on key uncertainties Not predictions, but “what-if” scenarios for planning purposes May be qualitative, quantitative, or both Assess reliability of water resources mix

Provides for more comprehensive planning

11

Growth SWP Reliability Recurring Droughts

Local Projects Development Risk

Climate Change

12

Future “Stress” Scenarios

SWP Reliability

Local Project Development

Risks

Recurring Droughts

13

MWD supply availability ◦ Dry-year plus further supply limitations SWP – delivery restrictions with no delta fix CRA – assume shortages with limited program supplies

(e.g. storage and transfer supplies) Storage – supplies limited due to multi-year drought

◦ Estimated 1.5 MAF available for allocation Not prediction, but “what if” scenario used to stress

resource mix

◦ MWD is allocating supplies under preferential rights

Local projects fixed at current level (2009)

14

Evaluated 6 scenarios ◦ Developed based on

uncertainty variables ◦ Quantitative and

qualitative ◦ Scenario 3 provides

greatest supply uncertainty

Identified strategies to fill gap ◦ Additional planned

projects IPR, Pendleton Seawater

Desalination

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1000

2030 (dry year)

Carryover Storage

MWD (P.R. allocation of 1.5 MAF)

SBX7-7 Savings

Local Supply (2009 levels)

Carlsbad Seawater Desalination

Colorado River Transfer Programs

Supply Gap

Scenario 3: Limited MWD and Member Agency Local Supplies

TAF

15

Provides comprehensive evaluation of annual supply reliability for the San Diego region

Includes reliability assessment taking into account hot and dry weather

Incorporates scenario planning to further “stress” the resource mix ◦ Effects beyond weather (e.g. SWP reliability, local supply

development risks) ◦ Identifies strategies (additional planned projects) that could

fill any supply gap

Results utilized in Facilities Master Plan Update

Master Plan “Baseline Scenario” is the UWMP resource mix (w/variation in weather)

Evaluates impacts of UWMP scenarios on system conveyance, treatment and storage facilities

Analyzes responses to variations in daily, weekly and seasonal member agency demands

Identifies problems, constraints and risks Identifies strategies that are robust and respond to

an array of future supply/demand conditions

17

Baseline System includes: • Existing aqueduct system of pipelines, treatment plants,

and storage reservoirs • Ongoing construction projects funded through FY14/15

Appropriation • Remaining ESP facilities, including: North County ESP Pump Station San Vicente PS 3rd VFD and Power Supply

• Completion of Carlsbad Desalination Project by 2016 Treated/Untreated split Seasonal and Daily Peaking

18

Miramar

Otay

Perdue

Levy

Alvarado

Twin Oaks Valley 100 MGD

Escondido/Vista ID

Poway Badger

Olivenhain

Weese

Untreated Water Delivery System

19

Future System Capacity Constraint - Pipelines 3 and 5 (beyond 2025)

Existing System Capacity Constraint - Pipeline 3 and 4 Intertie

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

95% of Untreated Capacity

CFS

20

Historic Daily Untreated Flow

Peaking August 2007 Peaking August 2010

21

500.00

550.00

600.00

650.00

700.00

750.00

800.00

500.00

550.00

600.00

650.00

700.00

750.00

800.00

CFS

CFS

Miramar

Otay

Perdue

Levy

Alvarado

Twin Oaks Valley 100 MGD

Escondido/Vista ID

Poway

San Vicente

Sweetwater

Lower Otay

Badger

Olivenhain Lake Hodges

El Capitan

Weese

Untreated Water Delivery System with Reservoirs

22

Olivenhain

Regional Capacity ◦ 590,000 AF ◦ Member Agency planned

reservoir operations needed to alleviate peak demands

San Vicente Dam Raise ◦ Increases capacity by 152,000

acre feet ◦ Provides seasonal and

carryover storage ◦ Provides important storage

buffer against potential near-term shortages while IID and QSA supplies ramp up

23

Benefits of Regional and Member Agency Storage

24

• Reservoirs are drawn down during peak season • Avoids need to increase

pipeline capacity • May create a winter peak on

pipeline capacity • Reservoirs buffer both

treated and untreated demand on the aqueduct

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

af

Total Member Agencies Storage Monthly Average Jan 2015–Dec 2035 Hydrology Period 1988-2007

• Local runoff fills reservoirs during winter season • During dry years, storage capacity is available for imported

seasonal deliveries

Twin Oaks Valley 100 MGD

Carlsbad Seawater Desal Plant

Treated Water Delivery System

25

North County ESP PS

Expand TOVWTP

Service Area

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Acre

Fee

t

MWD Untreated MWD Treated

Steep increase in untreated water deliveries will require additional capacity

26 Untreated includes MWD purchases and QSA supplies

Test Performance of Baseline Aqueduct System against Master Plan Scenarios ◦ Determines project implementation date ◦ Assures optimization of existing infrastructure

Identify Alternatives that Address Performance Gaps ◦ Facility related constraints ◦ Supply related constraints (MWD, local projects)

Initial Strategies for Crafting Portfolios ◦ Maximize conveyance (imported water) ◦ Expand regional desalination ◦ Maximize storage options ◦ Assume member agency local supply development

27

Address Capacity Constraints ◦ Maximize conveyance (imported water) Pipeline 6 – 500 cfs Pipelines 3 / 4 Switch - 200 cfs moved to untreated conveyance Colorado River Conveyance – 400 cfs

Address Capacity and Supply Constraints ◦ Expand regional desalination (local water production) Camp Pendleton – 77 to 232 cfs

◦ Rely on Member Agency local projects to reduce demand on Water Authority IPR Rosarito or other desalination project Non-potable recycling

28

Alternative Infrastructure Portfolios 1. Pipeline 6 (Pipelines P3/P4 switch) 2. Camp Pendleton Desalination 3. Colorado River Conveyance

Infrastructure Common to each Portfolio 4. ESP North County Pump Stations 5. ESP San Vicente Pump Station 3rd

VFD and Power Supply 6. Mission Trails Flow Regulatory

Structure 7. Lake Murray Control Valve 8. Second Crossover Pipeline 9. System Regulatory Structure 10. Pipeline Replacement and Relining

29

1

2 9 8

4

5

6 7

3

How does energy fit into long range planning?

Energy demand will increase with completion of recent capital projects

Generating capacity includes hydroelectric, solar and Hodges Pumped Storage

Master Plan Goal ◦ Maximize energy development ◦ Mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

Identified potential hydroelectric locations

30

31

15 potential hydroelectric generation locations identified

Uses excess aqueduct pressure for energy recovery

Evaluate economic viability ◦ Acceptable payback period

Consider as possible mitigation strategy for Climate Action Plan

California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) • Program EIR will address regional impacts

• Used in future project-specific EIRs • Releasing Notice of Preparation for the Program

Environmental Impact Report – starts the CEQA process 30-day public review period Public scoping meeting to be held at the Water

Authority within 30-day review period Comments received will be considered in preparation

of the Program EIR

32

33

Mar/Apr 2013 Member Agency TAC Mtgs. to further

analyze and refine alternatives Apr/May 2013 Water Planning Committee

• Committee Review, Comment and Select of Master Plan Draft Preferred Alternative

Summer 2013 Public Release of Draft Master Plan, Draft Climate Action Plan and Draft Program EIR

End of 2013 Board Mtg. to Consider EIR Certification

34