market pulse-november 2015
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MARKET PULSENovember 2015
1
Survey Methodology
• Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS®
• Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month and the last year.
2
LASTTRANSACTION
3
More than Half Are SellingAt or AboveAsking
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
27%
40%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Over Below At
4
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Premium Paid overAsking Price Remains Flat
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
10%
8.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Average
5
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8.9%
7%
12%13%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-14
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-15
Average
Percentages Paid BelowAsking Price Reaches Peak
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
6
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Market RemainedCompetitive asTwo-thirds ofProperties Received MultipleOffers
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
64% 64%66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
7
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Number ofOffers ReceivedWas the Highest sinceJuly
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-14
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-14
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-15
2.4 2.42.7
Average
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?
8
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
PropertiesWith Listing Price Reduced Dips Slightly
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
29%32%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%Ju
n-1
4
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-14
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-15
9
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
BuyersWhoWere Previous Renters Decreased
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
42%
48%
43%
10
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sellers Becoming Renters at the Lowest Level in theLast Four Months
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
20%18%
15%
11
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Share of First-time Buyers Decreased
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?
38%
34%32%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average
12
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Majority Purchases are Primary Residences
Q: What was the intended use of the property?
82%
66%61%
13%
23% 29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other
13
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
International BuyersContinues to Fluctuate
Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
11%10%
5.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
% International Buyers Long Run Average
14
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MARKET CONDITIONS
15
REALTORSContinued to Receive Fewer FloorCallssince the Peak inApril 2015
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was …
40%
37%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-14
May
-…
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-14
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-15
May
-…
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-15
Last MonthDown Flat Up
16
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsSlowing Down
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was …
49%
30%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-14
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-14
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-15
Last Month
Down Flat Up
17
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Open HouseTraffic InchedUp Slightly afterDropping EightConsecutive Months
Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was …
40%
35%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
Down Flat Up
18
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Auctions Up from Last Month and LastYear
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was …
45%
37%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
Down Flat Up
19
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
AllCash Purchases IncreasedSharply FromOctober
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was …
37%
33%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15
Down Flat Up
20
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
9 of 10 REALTORS® Believed MarketConditions willEither Improve or Remain the Same in 2016
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
11%
53%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Worsen Same Improve
21
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Why REALTORS® Expect MarketConditions toWorsen
Affordability for average buyer – OrangeCounty
Rates increase, this will eventually preventa lot of the buyers – Sacramento County
Prices have gone up way too much andincome hasn't – Riverside County
Financing!!! – Sonoma County
Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
22
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
REALTORS®AreConcernedAboutAffordability andInventory
23
0%
4%
3%
6%
8%
8%
9%
12%
22%
28%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
No Concerns
Other
Policies & Regulations
Housing bubble
Lending & financing
Slow down in economic growth
Rising Interest Rates
Home prices overinflated
Decline in housing affordability
Lack of Inventory
Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
What are REALTORS® Saying?
Seems like some banks, mortgage companies are revertingback to ways that caused the last recession. – Napa County
New mortgage rules nearly derailed the entire transaction. –San Francisco County
Way too many changes to the lending, title, escrow process,from TRID to FHA specifically.- Los Angeles County
It feels like 2008 again. – Butte County
Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?
24
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