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Market Report: Vehicle
Acquisition Trends in
European Fleet
Management
Marc OdiniusManaging Director
Dataforce GmbH
PowerPoint Sponsor
Ferrari 308 GTSi QV
Pontiac Firebird Trans Am
PASSENGER CAR MARKETS AROUND
THE GLOBE
Shares of the of global Total Market 2018
33%
21%
18%
1%
86 mio. car sales
33%
21%
18%
1%
Shares of the global True Fleet Market 2018
15 mio. new car
registrations 36%
15%
2%
11%
Passenger car markets in comparison
10.6% 30.3%27.5%7.7%
AustraliaEU-15*ChinaUSA
*EU-15: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy,
Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK
True Fleet share 2018
SwitzerlandAustria
SwedenNetherlands
PolandBelgium
TurkeyArgentinaAustralia
MexicoSpain
RussiaCanada
ItalyBrazil
FranceUnited Kingdom
GermanyJapan
USAChina
Volume
Passenger car markets in comparison
16.4%12.8%2.0%
AustraliaEU-15*USA
*EU-15: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy,
Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK
Share of Dealer Registrations in 2018 Percentages
12.8%
19.9%
0% 25%
USA
Denmark
Belgium
United Kingdom
Finland
Spain
Italy
EU-15
Switzerland
Netherlands
Poland
France
Czech Republic
Australia
Austria
Germany
10.6%
China
Share of Dealer registrations by countryPassenger car registrations 2018
12.8%
16.4%
19.9%
0% 25%
USA
Denmark
Belgium
United Kingdom
Finland
Spain
Italy
EU-15
Switzerland
Netherlands
Poland
France
Czech Republic
Australia
Austria
Germany
Dealers‘ Total Market Share
16.6%
26.8%43.0%
29.5%
0% 20% 40%
Maximum dealership registration ratio from one
brand inside the Top 10
321
182
684
0 700
Dealer registration volume (in thd.)
Markets in comparisonTop 10 True Fleet Brands
Top 10
Market Share83,0%
Australia
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
74,0%
USA
No. of
brands
share >
0.5%
26
69,4%
EU-15
No. of
brands
share >
0.5%
28
51,0%
China
No. of
brands
share >
0.5%
40
No. of
brands
share >
0.5%
21
Markets in comparisonTop 10 True Fleet Brands
Top 10
Market Share
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
74,0%
USA
No. of
brands
share >
0.5%
26V
W
BM
W
MER
C…
AU
DI
FOR
D
SKO
DA
OP
EL
REN
A…
SEA
T
VO
LVO
FIA
T
VW
FOR
D
AU
DI
MER
CED
…
BM
W
JEEP
PEU
GEO
T
REN
AU
LT
TOYO
TA
PEU
GEO
T
REN
AU
LT
CIT
RO
EN VW
FOR
D
MER
C
BM
W
AU
DI
TOYO
TA
FIA
T
No. of
brands
share >
0.5%
19
83.3% 84.2%69,3%
No. of
brands
share >
0.5%
23
No. of
brands
share >
0.5%
24
Germany FranceItaly
ALTERNATIVE FUEL TYPE
DEVELOPMENT
What are the chances for success?
Market shares of fuel typesPassenger car registrations 2018
75%
24%
Private
45%
53%
True Fleets
Petrol Diesel Electric Hybrid CNG/ LPG
Market shares of fuel typesPassenger car registrations 2018
Petrol Diesel Electric Hybrid CNG/ LPG
39%
52%
True Fleets
66%
26%
Private
Development of Diesel in DetailPassenger car registrations since January 2016
Total Market True Fleets Private
68%
48%
38%
23%
49%
32%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan/ 16 Jul/ 16 Jan/ 17 Jul/ 17 Jan/ 18 Jul/ 18 Jan/ 19
-19 %-points
-18 %-points
-16 %-points
The Development of HybridsPassenger car registrations
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
True Fleets Private
The Development of BEVsPassenger car registrations
True Fleets Private
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Market shares of fuel typesPassenger car registrations 2018
Petrol Diesel Electric Hybrid CNG/ LPG
39%
52%
True Fleets
66%
26%
Private
Market shares of fuel typesPassenger car registrations 2018
75%
24%
Private
45%
53%
True Fleets
Petrol Diesel Electric Hybrid CNG/ LPG
Market shares of fuel typesPassenger car registrations 2018
Petrol Diesel Electric Hybrid CNG/ LPG
39%
52%
True Fleets
66%
26%
Private
Fuel type sharesTotal Market registrations 2018
56.6%
93.9% 94.0%
65.4%
36.1%33.2%
59.5%
7.3%
0%
100%
Petrol Diesel Alternative
Market shares of fuel typesPassenger car registrations 2018
94%
True Fleets
94%
Private
Petrol Diesel Electric Hybrid CNG/ LPG
Market shares of fuel typesPassenger car registrations 2018
78%
13%
True Fleets
96%
Private
Petrol Diesel Electric Hybrid CNG/ LPG
Total Market Volume of Hybrids and BEVsTotal Market registrations 2018
0
1,200,000
Electric Hybrid
0
500,000
True Fleet Volume of Hybrids and BEVsTrue Fleet registrations 2018
Electric Hybrid
BEV Models Ranking 2018Share of total True Fleet BEV Volume
17.4%
SMART FORFOUR
HYUNDAI IONIQ
SMART FORTWO
JAGUAR I-PACE
TESLA MODEL X
VW GOLF
TESLA MODEL S
BMW I3
NISSAN LEAF
RENAULT ZOE 28.1%
TOYOTA MIRAI
HONDA CLARITY
KIA SOUL
BMW I3
NISSAN LEAF
TESLA MODEL X
TESLA MODEL S
CHEVROLET BOLT
CHEVROLET VOLT
TESLA MODEL 3
EU-15 USA
4,303
TOYOTA MIRAI
HONDA CLARITY
KIA SOUL
BMW I3
NISSAN LEAF
TESLA MODEL X
TESLA MODEL S
CHEVROLET BOLT
CHEVROLET VOLT
TESLA MODEL 3
BEV Models Ranking 2018True Fleet Volume
13,718
SMART FORFOUR
HYUNDAI IONIQ
SMART FORTWO
JAGUAR I-PACE
TESLA MODEL X
VW GOLF
TESLA MODEL S
BMW I3
NISSAN LEAF
RENAULT ZOE
EU-15 USA
Detailed look at Tesla within BEV segmentTrue Fleet passenger car registrations, share of BEV volume
EU-15 USA
2014/Jan 2015/Jan 2016/Jan 2017/Jan 2018/Jan 2019/Jan
0%
75%
2014/Jan 2015/Jan 2016/Jan 2017/Jan 2018/Jan 2019/Jan
Model S Model X Model 3
Total PC market registrations for EU-15Passenger car registrations – Tesla Models
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
TESLA MODEL 3 TESLA MODEL S TESLA MODEL X
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
RULES & REGULATION - POLITICS
What do we need for success?
OFFERING
What do we need for success?
MINDSET
What do we need for success?
RULES & REGULATION - POLITICS
What do we need for success?
2040
203020302040
2040
2040
2025
2030
2030
Bans of Petrol and Diesel Sales
Amount of worldwide climate lawsExamples of countries introducing Petrol and Diesel sales bans
EV Regulations and Sales SubsidiesExcerpt of countries
- Clean vehicle
rebate
- Federal Tax
Credit
Exemptions for zero-
emission vehicles
affecting acquisition, tax
benefits ownership,
company cars
- Exemptions from 25%
VAT (purchase and
leasing)
- no charges on toll
roads
Governmental and
municipial purchase
subsidies (major
subsidy cuts of 50%
from January 2019)
Number of charging stations
67,000
300,000
1,000
125,000
OFFERING
What do we need for success?
1.6
1.8
2.02.1 2.1
2.32.4
2.4 2.5
1
2
3
Powertrain study 2018: Ratings of BEVsAnswers of German Fleet Managers
Driver‘s
acceptance
Operational
costs
Charging
duration
Charging
management
Acquisition
costs
Charging
infrastructure
Model
diversityRangeCar
convenience
A BLUEPRINT FOR ALTERNATIVE FUEL
TYPES?
SUVs
The development of SUV’s market shareUSA passenger car registrations, Total Market
0%
50%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SUV
PC CompactPC Medium
PC Small
Pickups
PC Medium-LargeMPV
TOTAL MARKET
The development of SUV’s market shareUSA passenger car registrations, True Fleets
0%
50%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SUV
PC CompactPC Medium
PC Small
Pickups
PC Medium-LargeMPV
TRUE FLEETS
The development of SUV’s market shareEU-7 passenger car registrations, True Fleets
0%
50%
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
SUV
PC Compact
PC MediumPC Small
PC Mini
PC Medium-LargeMPV
The development of SUV’s market shareEU-7 passenger car registrations, True Fleets
26 2722 22
85
136
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
SUV PC Small PC Compact PC Medium
Number of models with alternative fuel typesEU-7 True Fleet registrations, registration volume > 100 per month
0
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 until 2024
Electric Hybrid PHEV
75 new
BEV
models
MINDSET
What do we need for success?
What range is sufficient for you to go electric
1) Up to 200km
2) 201-300km
3) 301-400km
4) 401-500km
5) 501 +km
6) Not at all
Minimum range of BEVsAnswers of German Fleet Managers within powertrain study 2018
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 160 310 450 600 800
Range in km
1. 15% of respondents satisfied
with a range upto 250 km
2. 50% would be satisfied with
range of upto 400-500 km
3. 80% pleased with range up to
600 km 1.
2.
3.
Which fuel type share in 10 years?Answers of German Fleet Managers within powertrain study 2018
4%
5%
11%
13%
31%
23%
13%
CNG / LPG
Fuelcell
Hydrogen
Hybrid
BEV
Diesel
Petrol
CO2 SCENARIOS
Regulation of CO2 emissions
123
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Reality 2018 (Case Study Germany: average CO2 by market segments)
95g CO2
Target 2021
True Fleets Private
Short-Term Rental Dealerships/ Manufacturer
Characteristics of the
market:
- About 60% diesel
share in True Fleets
- Decent share of
Medium cars,
Executive cars,
SUVs
2021 CO2 targets and current values for
Germany
FCA91.1
91.7
Renault-Nissan92.1
92.6 Ford93
94.3 VW96.3
100.3 Daimler100.7
103.5
JLR132
95
140
Hyundai-Kia121
118PSA117
124
Toyota101
122
BMW124
131
Volvo135
164
80
100
120
140
160
180
CO2-target 2021 Current CO2
− EU Average 95 g/km
NEDC
− Penalty: 95 Euro per
gram and registered
car
− OEM target depending
on average vehicle
weight
Diesel down, SUVs up with 2018‘s fuel type sharesCase Study Germany
95
120
80
90
100
110
120
130
2018 2019 2020 2021
1.2%
1.4%
1.3%
PHEV
Hybrid
BEV
∑ 3,9%
14% electrificationCase Study Germany
95
116
80
90
100
110
120
130
2018 2019 2020 2021
4.0%
6.0%
3.5%
PHEV
Hybrid
BEV
∑ 13,5%
18% electrificationCase Study Germany
95
113
80
90
100
110
120
130
2018 2019 2020 2021
5.9%
7.9%
4.6%
PHEV
Hybrid
BEV
∑ 18,4%
27% electrificationCase Study Germany
95
109
80
90
100
110
120
130
2018 2019 2020 2021
7.8%
13.6%
5.6%
PHEV
Hybrid
BEV
∑ 26,9%
45% electrificationCase Study Germany
95
101
80
90
100
110
120
130
2018 2019 2020 2021
11.5%
24.9%
8.6%
PHEV
Hybrid
BEV
∑ 45,0%
50% electrificationCase Study Germany
95
80
90
100
110
120
130
2018 2019 2020 2021
11.5%
26.7%
13.6%
PHEV
Hybrid
BEV
1.2%
1.4%
1.3%
PHEV
Hybrid
BEV
Now
Target
WHAT IF ALL CARS WERE BEV?
What if all cars were BEVs
- 115 mio tons CO2
- 281 k tons NOX
+ 90.000.000.000 kW/h
= 90 TerraWatts
What does 90 TWh get you?
You could power 1,363,636,363 of the latest
Samsung TV for a year !
What does 90 TWh get you?
You can power 750,000,000 of the latest LG
washing machines for a year !
What does 90 TWh get you?
Or we could send Marty McFly back to the
future 74,380 times
Additional powersources for 90 TWh
20,642
29,844
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
3,708,543
1,640,000
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000
13
104
0 50 100 150
51
98
0 50 100 150
Needed Existing
Annual electricity consumption (TWh)
4090
597
196
91
90
2
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
USA 2017
Germany 2017
2015 total renewable energy production
2010-2015 renewable energy growth
45 Mil. BEVs
1 Mil BEVs
LAST SLIDES I PROMISE
Confidence of consumers and the industryEU confidence indicators
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Consumer Industry
True Fleet keeps high level of volumeEU-7 passenger car registrations
0 3,500
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Further potential in fleetEU-7 passenger car registrations (2012 = 100)
118114
126135
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
True Fleets Private Market
Rentals (Short-Term) Dealer & Manufacturer
Which fuel type share in 10 years?Answers of German Fleet Managers within powertrain study 2018
4%
5%
11%
13%
31%
23%
13%
CNG / LPG
Fuelcell
Hydrogen
Hybrid
BEV
Diesel
Petrol
Thank You
Marc OdiniusCEO, Dataforce
marc.odinius@dataforce.de +491639538000
Looking forward to touch base
Title
PowerPoint Sponsor
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