marketing attribution problematic
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Marketing Attribution Marketing Attribution ProblematicProblematic
michel.bruley@teradata.com
September 2012
Extract from various presentations: RPM Direct, Kevin Hillstrom, Teradata Aster, …
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TV
TM Quote TM Sale
Marketing Channels and AttributionMarketing Channels and Attribution
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Marketing Channels and AttributionMarketing Channels and Attribution
Aggregator Web Quote
TV
Banner
Search
TM Quote TM Sale
Web Sale
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Marketing Channels and AttributionMarketing Channels and Attribution
Aggregator Web Quote
TV
Banner
Search
TM Quote TM Sale
Web Sale
www.decideo.fr/bruley
Marketing Channels and AttributionMarketing Channels and Attribution
Aggregator Web Quote
TV
Banner
Search
TM Quote TM Sale
Web Sale
www.decideo.fr/bruley
Putting Response in Correct “Bucket”
Putting Sales in Correct “Bucket”
Calculating Media Cost per Sale
Spending Next Tactical Marketing Dollar
Building Media Specific Targeting Models
Making Strategic Business Decisions
Marketing Channels and AttributionMarketing Channels and Attribution
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Channel Attribution MethodologyChannel Attribution Methodology
• Individual Customer Identification Numbers
• Marketing Source Codes
• Name and Address Match
• Factor Analysis
• Dynamic Time Series Regression
• Proportionately “Factor” Leftovers into Marketing Channels
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What is a latent conversionWhat is a latent conversion
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What’s wrong with Google Analytics?What’s wrong with Google Analytics?
ROI is attributed to the last (latent) referrer (Most recent keyword, ad, email, blog etc.) What’s wrong with most recent?
– Shoppers initiate search using broad categories
– Later narrow down to product names/IDs
– Perhaps then narrow to store brand
Broad categories don’t get the credit they (may) deserve
The only exception is direct type-in
Google Analytics takes the blame, though many web analytics tools work the same in a default implementation
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Attribution examplesAttribution examples
Quiz: An existing customer receives a catalog on September 1. On September 2, the customer uses Google to search for merchandise, visits your website, and purchases an item. What % of the order do you allocate to catalogs, to search, and to organic brand loyalty?
Quiz: An existing customer receives a catalog on September 1, receives e-mail marketing campaigns on September 7 and September 9, and purchases on your website on September 10, buying merchandise featured in your catalog and merchandise available only online. What % of the order do you allocate to catalogs, e-mail, and to organic brand loyalty?
Quiz: An existing customer receives a catalog on August 1, and receives 17 e-mail marketing messages between 8/1 and 10/1. On 10/4, the customer uses Google to search for merchandise, visits, and buys an item. What % of the order do you allocate to catalogs, to e-mail, to search, and to organic brand loyalty?
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Test + Results = Attribution RulesTest + Results = Attribution Rules
The beautiful thing about catalog marketing and e-mail marketing is that you can test, you can see what happens to other channels when you do not mail a catalog, when you do not send an e-mail campaign!
Sample 80,000 twelve-month buyers with a valid e-mail address.Group 1 = 20,000: Catalogs = Yes, E-Mail = YesGroup 2 = 20,000: Catalogs = Yes, E-Mail = NoGroup 3 = 20,000: Catalogs = No, E-Mail = YesGroup 4 = 20,000: Catalogs = No, E-Mail = No
Execute for a month, quarter, season, or year!
In a controlled experiment, the results of your test tell you what impact catalog marketing and e-mail marketing have on other channels (search, mobile, social, display ads, affiliates), so you can set up reasonable attribution rules!
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Some ResultsSome Results
We have four test panels in this test. We sent one catalog and nine e-mail campaigns during a one-month timeframe
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What Is The Organic Percentage?What Is The Organic Percentage?
The organic percentage is possibly the most important metric a direct marketer / catalog brand can track. It is the percentage of demand that will be generated if no marketing exists.
What about our example?
13
Take the $5.80 generated in the no catalogs / no e-mail test panel,
and divide it by the $11.37 generated in the catalogs + e-mail
test panel.
The result is 51%.
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A 51% Organic PercentageA 51% Organic Percentage
We must execute catalog and e-mail mail/holdout test panels, in order to properly estimate what our organic percentage is.•When the organic percentage is < 20%, your matchback/allocation process is generally accurate. •When the organic percentage is > 40%, matchbacks and allocation programs become increasingly inaccurate.
Does The Organic Percentage Vary?•Some customers are “highly organic”, while other customers require “large amounts of marketing”. There are HUGE profit opportunities in knowing this difference!•Customers who mail orders to a company or use the telephone to order require advertising.•Customers who combine catalogs and online channels are a “hybrid”, requiring much less advertising.•Customers who order online or in stores are highly organic, you can reduce advertising!
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Key TakeawaysKey Takeaways
Have the courage to execute both catalog mail/holdout tests and e-mail mail/holdout tests. Test four panels, test for a quarter or season or year if you can. The results are going to be breathtaking!.
Catalogs: In many cases, orders that would have happened anyway are attributed to catalogs, causing us to spend way too much money mailing catalogs.
E-Mail: E-Mail is frequently cannibalized by catalogs. E-Mail frequently causes Search/Mobile orders to happen.
Search: Search is often the outcome of catalog marketing or e-mail marketing.
Social/Mobile: In the early stages of a channel, sales are frequently cannibalized from existing channels, or the existing channels cause the sale to happen in the new channel. Over time, new channels become “organic”, and do not require old-school channels in order to create sales on their own. Tests can validate this.
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Multi-Channel Customer AnalysisMulti-Channel Customer Analysis
Business Question(s): •Prior to new product additions?
•Is there any identifiable pattern of behavior prior to account closure? •If so, what does this pattern look like?
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Value of Aster Data for Digital MarketingValue of Aster Data for Digital Marketing
Aster Data AnalysisAster Data Analysis•Click-stream
• # of visitors, visitor location, browser type
• Last click analysis
•Online behavior• Common interaction behaviors
• Optimal paths through website
•A/B testing• Where to place this button, link, etc.
•Search Optimization• Mix of paid per click and organic
• Which search terms drive traffic, behaviors
•Advertising Optimization•Conversion
• How to optimize advertising placement
• Where are shopping carts abandoned & why
•Marketing Attribution• What % credit to give each referring channel or
campaign
+ Teradata Adds…+ Teradata Adds…•Multi-channel (online & offline) campaign analysis
- Complete customer interaction history
•Marketing return on investment
- Attribution + cost of conversion
+ Aprimo Adds…+ Aprimo Adds…
•Campaign management- Take action to influence
behaviors
•Marketing Resource Management
- Take action to optimize marketing spend
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Attribution Using AsterAttribution Using Aster
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Prepares multi-structured data•Stitches rows together by customer in a time-ordered view
Scans all records to produce a complete set of paths•No need to define patterns in advance
•Fully parallelized for top performance using MapReduce where SQL falls down
Summarize output for business exploration•Rank order the most popular paths and yet represent the long tail too
Aster nPath Identifies the “Last Mile”Aster nPath Identifies the “Last Mile”
All interaction patterns evaluated in a single pass
Step 2: Run nPath SQL-MapReduce Java Logic
Total # of Customers channel1 … channeln
35 Online Retail … Research products
26 Store Purchase … BankX Credit Card
custID channel1 … channeln time1 … timen
10001 Online Retail … Research products
12:00 PM 1/1/2010
… 3:00 PM2/15/2010
20001 Store Purchase … BankX Credit Card
1:45 PM1/1/2010
… 12:20 PM2/22/2010
Step 1: Pivot data via nPath SQL-MapReduce
userID event time
10001
20001
10001
20001
userID event time
10001
20001
10001
20001
Aster MapReduce Platform
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Aster nPath example: Account ClosureAster nPath example: Account Closure
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Marketing Strategy for SuccessMarketing Strategy for Success
Multi-Touch AttributionMulti-Touch Attribution Go beyond “last click” and identify which ads and
channels perform the best Quantify which ads lead (attribute) to conversion Calculate true ROI on a per ad basis Run time-sensitive promotions by knowing which ads
convert the fastest.
Where should I increase my Marketing Where should I increase my Marketing Spend to drive higher ROI?Spend to drive higher ROI?
Customer Journey Leading to Purchase on Online StoreCustomer Journey Leading to Purchase on Online Store
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