may 17, 2011 true flood loss analysis: integrating both depth grid and specific building inventories...

May 17, 2011

True Flood Loss Analysis: Integrating Both Depth Grid and Specific Building Inventories

Jason Rutter, CFMCoreLogic

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Overview

1. Concept – Data Enhancements

2. Level I Results – Tulsa, OK

3. Impact of Enhanced Depth Grids

4. Impact of Enhanced Property Information

5. Level II+ Results – Tulsa, OK

6. Additional Benefits of Analysis

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Concept

HAZUS Level I

Depth Grid

HAZUS Level II+

Property Data

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Data Enhancements

Depth Grid – PTS

Property Data – local and county records

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HAZUS Level I Results – Tulsa, OKSettings:• 100 Year Return Period• 10 Mile drainage Area• 10 Meter DEM

Economic Loss From Building Damage

$390,052,000

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Data Enhancement – RAMPP Depth GridDepth Grid Comparison – County Area Coverage• HAZUS Level I: 17.8% (Red)• RAMPP Depth Grid: 18.8% (Blue)

Results• HAZUS Level I: $390,052,000• RAMPP Depth Grid: $452,198,000

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Detailed Property Locations

Selection Criteria:• HAZUS Level I Flood Zone Area• HAZUS Level II+ Flood Zone Area• Buffers

Properties Selected

• Total Properties: 33,973• Structures: 24,522• Vacant: 9,451

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Importing Properties Into HAZUS

Imported Properties: 24,522

• Extracted from National Database – 200 standardized fields• Aggregated land use codes• Calculations and Assumptions (foundation type, first floor height)• Create a HAZUS ready access file

Improvement Value Cost

Living Area Sq Ft SqFt

Year Built YrBuilt

Number of Stories NumStories

Mobile Home Indicator “RES2”

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Impact of Enhanced DataHAZUS Level I RAMPP Depth GridStructures: 12,099 (above HAZUS limits) Structures: 4,964

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HAZUS Level II+ Results – Tulsa, OK

• Structures Impacted: 4,964• Estimated Building Damage: $82,501,947• Average Building Damage: $16,520

LEVEL I and LEVEL II Comparison

Damage Estimate Number of Buildings

LEVEL I $390,052,000 NA

LEVEL II+ $82,501,947 4,964

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HAZUS Level I vs. Level II+

HAZUS Level I

Damage = $1,973,000

HAZUS Level II+

Damage = $119,599

Structures = 4

Vacant Properties = 9

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HAZUS Level I vs. Level II+

HAZUS Level I

Damage = $4,486,000

HAZUS Level II+

Damage = $1,338,372

Structures = 18

Vacant Properties = 12

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HAZUS Level II+ Results – Market ValuesCalculated using Automated Valuation Models (AVM)

• Properties with Market Values Calculated – 75%

• Market Values v. Assessed Value

• 112% Increase

• HAZUS Level II+ Market Value Losses

• Estimated Losses = $ 92,377,065

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Benefits1. More Accurate Aggregate Values

Average Annualized Loss (AAL) Adjustments Post Disaster Funding Estimates

2. Identification of Properties At-Risk Mitigation Programs Outreach NFIP Insurance Take Rate Analysis

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Summary

1. HAZUS has the ability to process thousands of individual properties when provided enhanced data. Requires a transition to new uses of HAZUS.

2. Enhancing HAZUS with additional data requires comprehensive, standardized attribution.

3. Accurate, representative loss analysis requires property locations to accurately represent local geographic build patterns.

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Questions

Jason Rutter, CFMCoreLogic